Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 42P. eVTOL mission range. The deeper discussion.
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October 21, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 42, eVTOL mission range. It discusses the typical maximum range we can expect from a certified eVTOL by mid-decade.
We have described the vehicle and the mission data in the three previous Corners; now, we analyze the energy consumption for the mission and discuss the range we can achieve.
Engine Development. Part 10. Next generation engines
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 20, 2022, © Leeham News: We finish our series about engine development by looking at the next-generation engines and future trends in airliner engine development.
We limit this look forward to engines that burn Jet fuel (Jet-A1 or SAF) as green propulsion solutions are a vast field and justify their own series. We will pick this up at a future date.
The Boeing 777-9, the first airliner with next-generation engines. Source: Boeing.
Summary
- The major reduction in fuel consumption and, thus, CO2 emissions will come from new engines.
- The technologies to drive fuel consumption down a further 15% are there.
Analysts forecast traffic growth but scant profits for Indian airlines
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By Bryan Corliss
Oct. 17, 2022 © Leeham News: After sustaining major losses in their most-recent fiscal years, India’s airlines will recover in 2022. But rising fuel and labor costs, plus weak prospects for financing will constrain near-term growth.
That’s the analysis of Aairavat Transport & Technology Ventures consulting firm.
An IndiGo Airlines A320Neo on the runway at Mumbai. IndiGo is India’s largest airline. Photo by Timothy A. Gonsalves.
AT-TV’s assessment is less bullish than Boeing’s market outlook, which projects Indian airlines to add 25% capacity over the next year, with long-term growth targeted for 7%. Airbus is slightly more cautious, projecting 6.2% annual growth over the next two decades.
India is one of the world’s largest aviation markets. It’s also been one of the most challenging, with bankruptcies and constant financial distress plaguing the industry.
Summary
- India airlines have been in upheaval
- Tata Group wants new aircraft for Air India
- Indian airlines sustained major losses last year
- OEMs see long-term growth, but near-term outlook is choppy
Engine Development. Part 9. Gearbox or not?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 13, 2022, © Leeham News: In our series, we look at the development of the latest single-aisle engines. Should these be geared? What do you gain and risk with a geared design? Is this a new development, or has it been around for a long time?
We examine the development of single-aisle engines since 2000, their fuel efficiency, and operational reliability.
Summary
- A geared design fixes some fundamental problems in a two-shaft turbofan.
- CFM proves you could just as well further develop what you have.
Voltaero’s Cassio hybrid plane is “Mild”
The somewhat different hybrid-electric aircraft
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Oct. 10, 2022, © Leeham News: A French company, Voltaero, is taking a different approach to the plethora of concepts to produce a “green” aerial vehicle.
The Cassio family of aircraft uses a Mild Hybrid to avoid the pitfall of most hybrids, the need for a large battery. Batteries of today and tomorrow are too heavy to serve as the main power source for an aircraft unless it’s a flight around the airport like for trainers.
Voltaero designed a clever hybrid scheme that allows electric flight where it matters and leaves a thermal engine to do the rest. The concept, called a “Mild Hybrid,” keeps the advantages of the electric flight mode without the disadvantages of short-range or an expensive operation.
Engine Development. Part 8. Throttle push or not?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 6, 2022, © Leeham News: The early years of 2000 saw new engine programs launched for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus response, the A350.
Substantial differences in the life of these aircraft programs made the engine programs develop differently. It was about throttle push or not.
Summary
- The Dreamliner engines changed as the 787 programs went through many stages.
- The Airbus A350 program was a standard program in comparison.
EASA: SAF production must increase dramatically to meet climate goals
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By BRYAN CORLISS
Oct. 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Aviation is “a key vulnerable economic sector that is only in the early stage of adaptation to climate change,” according to a new report from EASA, the European Union’s Aviation Safety Agency.
To meet the industry’s environmental challenges – and there are several — more must be done to identify the hazards and risks that extreme weather events caused by climate change can bring to the industry, the report says.
The report also recommends that more needs to be done to plan for the impact of extreme weather on aircraft and airline infrastructure. The industry and regulators also need to “identify and apply ‘win-win’ solutions” to reduce carbon dioxide and other emissions from airliners, and to accelerate the deployment of aircraft and air traffic control technology to improve the efficiency of Europe’s airline fleet.
The good news in the report is that researchers believe aviation could cut emissions by 69% by 2050 by adopting a suite of changes, including increased use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), improved aircraft technology, better operational practices and by using hydrogen or electric motors to power aircraft where feasible.
Summary
- Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel must increase dramatically.
- Airline emissions are going up as a percentage of contribution to climate impact.
- In another blow to Boom’s claim its SST will be environmentally friendly, EASA takes a different view about SSTs.
Achieving net zero carbon is a promise you can keep: P&W’s Webb
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By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 26, 2022, © Leeham News: The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is nearing the next step in support of dramatically cutting emissions by airlines and the aviation industry.
Graham Webb
“ICAO has been working for about the last three years on something called a long-term aspirational goal (L-TAG). That’s regarding a study that was conducted by a number of their scientists to determine if it is feasible for the aviation industry to reduce its carbon emissions specifically, to achieve a net zero standard. That’s what for a long-term aspirational goal is,” said Graham Webb, Chief Sustainability Officer for Pratt & Whitney. “At this point, the study has been completed and has been reviewed by 93 member states. It would appear that the initial motion of the language that is going to be put forward will pass.”
ICAO previously adopted the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). L-TAG is the next step, Webb said in an interview this month with LNA.
“Once that is in place, it will enable ICAO, much as it already is done with CORSIA, to establish policies that would then be enforced by all its member states in a common, in a related way as opposed to the concern that many people have had, where you would see a patchwork. You would see some countries, such as the United States, providing incentives through vendors’ tax credits. You would see Europe in the form of mandates and taxes. They have this Emissions Trading Scheme that they’ve been putting forward and running through the Parliament. The overall objective is to have this singular global aviation industry, regulatory body, ICAO, that would then set the guidelines for the industry.”
Engine Development. Part 6. High Bypass goes mainstream
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 22, 2022, © Leeham News: With the introduction of the High Bypass engine for the Boeing 747, Douglas DC-10, and Lockheed Tristar, it was obvious Pratt & Whitney’s low bypass engines on the Boeing 707, 727, 737, and Douglas DC-8, -9 should be attacked with a new High Bypass engine in this thrust class.
French Snecma and GE teamed up to break Pratt & Whitney’s monopoly of the jet engine market outside the widebodies. The CFM56 was born.
Figure 1. The Boeing 737-300, the breakthrough for the CFM56 engine. Source; Wikipedia.
Summary
- With an exclusive fit on the Boeing 737 and a 10-year introduction advantage on the A320, the CFM56 has dominated over the competing IAE V2500.
- The CFM56 is the world’s most produced jet engine, with over 32,000 engines produced to date.
The Airbus and Boeing market outlooks, Part 2
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Credit: Leeham Company LLC
Sept. 19, 2022, © Leeham News: In the first article last week, we focused on the differences in market outlook assumptions between Airbus and Boeing. Despite similar levels of passenger single-aisle and twin-aisle deliveries envisioned over the next two decades, there were significant differences in the underlying assumptions.
We now focus on whether there is enough production capacity to meet the envisioned aircraft demand over the next two decades.
Summary
- Outlining the delivery forecast assumptions;
- Converting deliveries into production rates;
- Estimating production capacity;
- Is Boeing implying something?