Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Coronavirus impact to Boeing still unfolding
By Judson Rollins
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March 16, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing stock sold off 28% last week on news that the company would draw down the remainder of a $13.8bn loan it arranged in February to cover ongoing expenses related to the 737 MAX.
In addition to MAX-related charges, the company is also hoping to close its joint venture with Embraer and has looming debt maturities later this year. But the company’s airplane sales prospects are an increasing source of worry for investors.
The coronavirus and its impacts – which are still unfolding – put up significant obstacles to Boeing’s recovery, even as it hopes to finally see the MAX recertified within a few months. Read more
Pontifications: What kind of aid could US airlines get?
By Scott Hamilton
March 16, 2020, © Leeham News: Airlines in Europe already asked governments for financial aid as coronavirus forces massive schedule cutbacks and in some cases, complete service suspension.
In the US, talk of aid began in earnest last week.
Delta Air Lines, which is parking 300 airplanes and cutting 40% of its capacity, said it plans to seek US financial assistance.
There is increasing talk that the US may order a complete suspension of domestic air service. If so, this would be like 9/11, when for the first time in history the US shut down its skies.
Trans-Atlantic flights were diverted to Gander as 9/11 unfolded. Source: i.pinimg.com
That lasted only three days.
With federal officials saying the crisis hasn’t peaked in the US and it may be a couple of months before the crisis subsides.
US carriers will almost certainly seek government assistance.
Bjorn’s Corner: Why e in ePlane shall stand for environment, Part 13. Serial Hybrid.
March 13, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In this week’s Corner, we address an often forgotten aspect of Electric and Electric-Hybrid aircraft design.
The battery as an energy source, as the only or assisting source, has the same weight during the whole flight. A fuel (alternate, fossil, or hydrogen) consumes during the flight. You gradually fly a lighter aircraft. Let’s see how this affects the aircraft’s efficiency.
Figure 1. Embraer’s E175-E2, a latest-generation 88 seater jet used for our example. Source: Embraer.
Boeing down sharply second day in a row. Airbus stock in similar decline
By Scott Hamilton
March 12, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing stock is in another sharp decline today.
Yesterday, the stock fell 18%, to close under $200 for the first time since May 2017.
Today, the stock was off 15% in early morning trading, to a low of $156. At this writing, Boeing is down 13.5% at $163. The Dow Jones was down 7%.
Year-to-date, Boeing is off 52%.
While here in the US, focus is on Boeing, looking at the Paris stock exchange, Airbus stock also in in a similar decline—without all the baggage Boeing has.
Does the new weight bump turn the A330-900 to a trans-Pacific aircraft? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 12, 2020, © Leeham News: We continue last week’s theme and compare Airbus’ new 251t variant of the A330-900 to the A350-900 in this article.
We saw in the first article the A330-900 251t is now a credible long-range aircraft, including the long hop over the Pacific ocean. When to use the A330-900 or the A350-900? We analyze their economics and where one is to prefer to the other for long-range operations.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330-900 in its 251t version can serve many US to Asia routes that were reserved for the A350-900 before.
- We check if the economics support replacing the A350-900 with the A330-900 for these routes.
Airlines seek rent relief as coronavirus impacts widen
By Scott Hamilton
March 11, 2020, © Leeham News: Some airlines already are asking for rent relief as a result of widespread groundings of aircraft because of the coronavirus.
BOC Aviation, Avolon and Air Lease Corp are just three lessors acknowledging they’ve already been asked for relief. They spoke on the sidelines of an aviation industry conference in Austin last week.
Engineers OK Boeing contract extension; techs say no
By Bryan Corliss
March 11, 2020 © Leeham News – New Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun earned a split decision in his first major labor relations test Monday, as unionized engineers with the company’s Commercial Airplanes division narrowly approved a contract extension. A second unit, for technical workers, rejected a similar proposal.
The news came as Boeing announced the first case of COVID-19 among its 70,000-member Puget Sound workforce: an unidentified employee at the company’s Everett plant.
The proposal for engineers belonging to SPEEA (the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace) was approved with a 51.2% yes vote, the union reported shortly before midnight (Pacific Time). Technical workers, however, rejected a similar deal with 56.7% “no” vote.
Heard on the Ramp: Boeing has its 777X sales challenges; Airbus A330neo appears to be next
Heard on the Ramp
We introduce today a new feature, Heard on the Ramp. This column contains news briefs LNA picks up in the market that aren’t expansive 
enough for stand-alone articles but which are items of interest. Publication will be on an as-needed basis.
By the Leeham News staff
March 10, 2020, © Leeham News: Last year revealed Boeing 777X order problems, with a small customer base and cancellations or deferrals. Perhaps this year will be the Airbus A330neo’s turn.
Out of 337 orders, 156 A330neos are with airlines in trouble or can’t take aircraft (AirAsiaX, Iran Air, HNA), or 46%.
This is without counting the second level of trouble airlines and lessor orders, which may have challenges placing aircraft in today’s unsettled market.
European airline struggles add risk to 15% of Airbus, Boeing orders
By Judson Rollins
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Introduction
Earlier this week, LNA examined the potential for a shakeout among European carriers as the coronavirus outbreak spreads to the continent.
Five European countries now rank among the ten hardest hit – travel demand is plummeting nearly as rapidly as after the September 11 attacks in the US.
On Thursday, UK-based Flybe went into bankruptcy after long-time financial struggles. The airline had 54 De Havilland Canada Dash-8-400s and nine Embraer E175-E1s in its fleet, more than half of which were leased from Nordic Aviation Capital and HEH Aviation Management.
LNA reviewed aircraft ownership data to understand top manufacturer and lessor exposure to European carriers, particularly those with known profitability issues and high debt loads.
Source: Twitter / @AirportWebcams
Summary
- Airbus’s exposure to Europe is 16% on single-aisles and 19% on twin-aisles;
- Boeing has just under 15% of its single- and twin-aisle orders from Europe;
- Embraer’s E2 jet program has 27% exposure to the region;
- ATR, De Havilland Canada, COMAC face little to no threat from European airline woes;
- Norwegian, TAP, SAS, TUI are likely the most imminent threats to manufacturers and lessors.
Pontifications: The nuts and bolts of air disasters
March 9, 2020, © Leeham News: Commercial aviation accidents are high profile news events.
By Scott Hamilton
These happen rarely. Many times, a lot of people are killed. (It should be noted that often survivors may outnumber those killed as safety improved.)
In this era of 24/7 cable news and minute-by minute social media, everyone wants instant answers as to causes.
Finding answers is not simple. A typical accident investigation usually takes 12-18 months before the investigators issue a final report with a probable cause.
One reason for this is that sometimes, the cause of an accident comes down to a single bolt, or even a single cotter pin.
This is where the new book, Flight Failure, Investigating the Nuts and Bolts of Air Disasters and Aviation Safety, serves to remind us of just how intricate accident investigation is.