Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Look to 2013 787 grounding to see how Boeing will return MAX to service
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 13, 2019, © Leeham News: As Boeing prepares for what it hopes is an imminent recertification of the 737 MAX from the Federal Aviation Administration, how it will handle the logistics of returning 381 grounded airplanes to service and delivering nearly 300 more undelivered 737s is key.
One need look to the only other time a Boeing jetliner, the 787, was grounded and how “One Boeing” coalesced to attack what was then its largest logistical task for its commercial airplanes unit.
The return to service of the 787 paled compared with the task facing Boeing today. In 2013, there were only 50 787s grounded worldwide after two lithium ion battery incidents: one fire and one near-fire, one on the ground and the other as the airplane took off.
In 2013, the production rate of the 787 was in the single digits per month. The 737 is being produced at a rate of 42/mo.
In 2013, there were a few score of 787s parked around Everett’s Paine Field awaiting delivery. Today, the nearly 600 737s are scattered around four locations in Washington State, a Boeing facility in Texas and various airline storage areas around the globe.
In May 2013, I wrote a freelance piece for CNN’s website how Boeing planned to return the 787 to service. This story may be found here.
Airbus touts Airspace, Internet of Things at APEX convention
Sept. 13, 2019, © Leeham News, Los Angeles: Airbus is expanding its Airspace interior look to the A321LR and A321XLR, providing a common theme with its widebody A330neo and A350 family members.
The OEM is also launching the fully cabin-connected Internet of Things (IoT), a system connecting just about everything in a cabin, for passenger experience and airline use.
The moves were revealed at the 2019 APEX convention last week in Los Angeles.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 8
September 13, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we discussed the flight control laws of Boeing’s 777/787 and Airbus’ A220 last week.
Now we continue with Embraer’s fourth-generation FBW, the one for the E-Jet E2 series.
Figure 1. The Embraer E2 FBW system is a closed-loop feedback design. Source: Embraer.
Embraer delivers first E195-E2, expects E175-E2 entry into service 2021.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Sept. 12, 2019, ©. Leeham News, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil: Embraer celebrated the first delivery of its to-date largest aircraft, the 132 seat E195-E2, to Brazil’s Azul Airlines at a press event at its Sao Jose dos Campos headquarters today.
At the conference, the Commercial Aircraft CEO, John Slattery. also stated the smallest member of the E2 family, the E175-E2, will fly before the end of the year and he expects it fly revenue flights for its first customer before end 2021.
A321 accounts for 50%+ of future deliveries; few production gaps
Subscription Required
Introduction
Sept. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: More than half the Airbus A320 family scheduled for delivery over the next four years will be the A321neo, according to an analysis performed by LNA.
Airbus is sold out through 2024 the current production rate of 60/mo or 720 per year.
The production rate increases to 63/mo next year, although LNA doesn’t have a precise time when this occurs.
A variable is also whether a full 12 months of production is calculated, or only 11 ½ months to allow for the summer vacation shutdown.
Either way, the production gaps appear manageable through 2024.
Summary
- Previous Airbus forecasts A321 would account for half of production were viewed skeptically.
- A321 long-term future depends on Boeing’s decision over the New Midmarket Airplane.
The struggling smaller European low cost carriers, Part 2.
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Sep. 9, 2019, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we discussed the context that led to the creation of numerous European low cost and leisure carriers. We also outlined the main reasons for their recent struggles.
Today we will look at the current situation for smaller carriers in various European countries. We will start with Germany.
Pontifications: Next few weeks critical to aerospace industry
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 9, 2019, © Leeham News: Reports increased last week that Europe’s EASA safety regulator may go its own way in recertifying the Boeing 737 MAX.
The head of IATA, the international trade group, and CEOs of several airlines and one lessor expressed fear and concern EASA won’t act with the Federal Aviation Administration to lift grounding orders of the MAX.
At the Regional Airline Assn. annual conference last week, buzz among journalists focused on one unverified report, based on EASA’s doubts reported during the week yet to hit the media, could significantly extend the grounding—measured in months, not weeks.
I know efforts are being made to verify the information.
If true, the effects would be devastating.
de Havilland Canada vows to revitalize Q400
Sept. 6, 2019, © Leeham News: Nashville—The new de Havilland Canada (DHC) vowed yesterday to revitalize the former Bombardier Dash 8-400 (Q400), the program DHC acquired effective June 1.
Bombardier is selling off and exiting the commercial aviation sector after a series of 
management miscalculations, cost overruns and thee new airplane programs in commercial and business aviation nearly bankrupted the company.
The Q400 was the first complete airplane program to go. The CRJ program sale is next. A majority interest in the C Series jetliner occurred in 2018.
DHC is a subsidiary of Canada’s Longview Aviation. Another subsidiary, Viking Air, acquired all previous Bombardier-de Havilland programs from the Dash 1 through Dash 7 and CL-Series aerial fire-fighting water bombers.
E195-E2 will lead E-Jet sales, predicts N. American sales exec
Sept. 6, 2019, © Leeham Co., Nashville– Embraer is seeing interest from North American airlines in the E195-E2 despite a requirement that this would have to be operated by US mainline pilots or carriers without restrictions under some labor contract Scope Clauses, a top marketing official said yesterday.
Charlie Hills, VP of Sales and Marketing and based at the company’s US headquarters in Ft. Lauderdale, declined to name names of these airlines expressing interest in the E195-E2.
The remarks were made at the annual Regional Airlines Assoc. conference in Nashville.
But it is known that low-cost carriers Spirit Air, Frontier Airlines and even Southwest Airlines have looked at the airplane. None of these has a Scope Clause in labor contracts.
Legacy carrier United Airlines also has reviewed the airplane, but its level of interest is hard to gauge. It’s restricted by Scope by size, weight, seat count and the number of airplanes it can fly through its regional partners, so the E2 would have to fly mainline. Pilot wages would be a make-or-break issue.
The first E195-E2 will be delivered Sept. 12 to Brazil’s Azul Airlines.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 7.
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we discussed the flight control laws which are implemented with classical flight controls compared with the Embraer E-Jet and Airbus A320 FBW systems last week.
Now we describe alternative FBW approaches, analyzing Boeing’s 777/787 system and Airbus’ A220 system.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 777 and 787 FBW system architecture. Source: Boeing.