Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
2019 Outlook: leaving Airbus’ troubled year behind
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 19, 2018, © Leeham News.: Next year is a time when Airbus hopes to leave its troubled 2018 behind.
But 2018 was also when the company wanted to leave the troubles of 2017 behind it.
Not only did 2018 not improve. In a number of ways it turned worse.
Engineless A320neos at Toulouse Airport. Airbus hopes this is a thing of the past. Photo via Google images.
Turmoil in the management ranks brought back memories of the politically infested Airbus of 20 years ago. And there were other issues.
Production problems with the A320 continued. The A330neo was further delayed and the A380 order from Emirates to save the program took forever to materialize. The negotiations to fix the contracts for A400M couldn’t be brought to a close.
There were two bright lights in the year. The A350 was now out of its cabin supplier problems and delivering aircraft to plan. The other was the gift from Boeing’s suing Bombardier and its CSeries the year before. The top modern Bombardier CS100/300 became Airbus A220 on the first of July. Price tag; $1 for 50.01% of the program.
Summary
- Changes in executives are almost over.
- Pratt & Whitney’s engine delivery delays are caught up and CFM’s delays are diminishing.
- Production ramp ups are peaking (for now) and deliveries should be at a record rate next year.
- Airbus is waiting for Boeing to decide whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft.
Lion Air threatens to cancel MAX order; no impact to Boeing seen
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Introduction
Dec. 17, 2018, © Leeham News: Lion Air’s co-founder is threatening to cancel an order for more than 200 Boeing 737 MAXes following what he says is Boeing’s 
blaming the airline for the Oct. 29 crash of Flight 610.
All 189 people aboard the three month old 737-8 died when the plane plunged into the Java Sea 11 minutes after take-off from Jakarta.
Calling a Boeing statement issued Nov. 27 a “betrayal,” co-founder Rusdi Kirana Dec. 3 threatened to cancel to big Boeing order. He amplified his remarks Dec. 11.
Summary
- Lion Air has 229 MAXes scheduled for delivery between 2019-2026.
- The carrier has 148 A320neos scheduled for delivery, believed intended for its leasing company.
- Deliveries mostly overlap.
- Another source of A320neos is apparently available.
- Analysis of impact to Boeing
Pontifications: Airbus teams with Georgia Tech for MBSE role
- See LNC’s holiday publication schedule at the end of this column.
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 17, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus has joined with Georgia Institute of Technology to open a technical center for Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) for Overall Aircraft Design (OAD).
The Georgia Tech Center opened in October.
It’s an expansion of the Airbus footprint in the growing US Southeast aerospace footprint.
It’s also a step in transforming Airbus’ design technology, an effort that’s been underway in cooperation with European universities and institutes. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Pitch stability, Part 4
December 14, 2018, ©.Leeham News: Last week we introduced a horizontal stabilizer to make our DC-9 like aircraft stable in pitch. We got a pitch moment curve which was forcing the nose down of the aircraft if there was an increase in Angle of Attack (AoA) of the aircraft. Should the angle of attack decrease from a trimmed position, the aircraft would put the nose up to correct the disturbance. The aircraft is stable in pitch.
Now we take a closer look at how such a horizontal stabilizer is made and why.
Figure 1. The pitch moment coefficient curve of an earlyDC-9 candidate. Source: Stanford University.
Read more
Has the A380 worse economics than the 777-9 or A350-1000?
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Introduction
December 13, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we checked if the claims in media the Airbus A380 is more expensive to operate than a Boeing 777-300ER has merit. As so often, media compared apples with oranges.
Comparing like-for-like, the A380 does just fine if you configure it with equal comfort cabins. And if you can fill it. Now we compare the A380 economics to more modern alternatives, Airbus’ A350-1000 and Boeing’s 777-9.
Summary:
- Configured to equal comfort standards the A380 is surprisingly competitive on seat mile costs to the A350-1000 and 777-9.
- We then lowered the A380 seat count from Airbus’ latest proposals, to find the cross-over point. It’s pretty close to Emirates two-class A380s.
Tanker wars may be back
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Introduction
Dec. 10, 2018, © Leeham News: The tanker wars may be back.
Airbus has teamed with Lockheed Martin to offer the Airbus A330-200MRTT to the Pentagon in a for-hire business model. The agreement also provides the prospect of “conceptualizing the tanker of the future.” (The press release is here.)
From 2001-2011, the US Air Force, Pentagon and even Congress were embroiled in controversy over recapitalization of the USAF aerial refueling tanker fleet.
The KC-135s, based on the Boeing 707, were aging, expensive to maintain and outdated.
After 9/11, Boeing proposed leasing 100 tankers based on the 767-200ER to the USAF. A scandal surrounding the USAF approval of this deal sent the air force’s procurement office and Boeing’s CFO to jail and resulted in the resignation of CEO Phil Condit. The lease deal was canceled.
Summary
- Three rounds of tanker procurement were filled with improprieties, bitter charges and counter charges.
- Boeing currently has a contract for 52 KC-46A tankers out of an initial procurement of 179.
- The air force sees a need for 100 more tankers on an accelerated timeline.
- Fee-based refueling is not unknown to the Pentagon.
Pontifications: Nordic quietly rises to #4 world lessor
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 10, 2018, © Leeham News: In the world of commercial aviation, GECAS, Avolon, AerCap, Air Lease Corp and BOC Aviation are among the most recognizable names of lessors.
These companies make headlines with large orders of Airbus and Boeing aircraft. Air Lease is headed by Steven Udvar-Hazy and John Plueger, giants of the aircraft leasing business.
But one lessor quietly, below the radar, has become one of the largest lessors in terms of aircraft count pursuing regional aircraft, a product mostly shunned by the biggest lessors.
Nordic Aviation Capital Embraer E190-E2. Source: Nordic.
Nordic Aviation Capital last year ranked tied for fifth with asset manager BBAM, each with 404 airplanes in their portfolios, according to an Airfinance Journal 2017 survey. GECAS, AerCap, Avolon and SMBC Aviation Capital were bigger.
DAE Capital of Dubai, BOC Aviation, Air Lease Corp and Aviation Capital Group rounded out the top 10. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Pitch stability, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 7, 2018, ©. Leeham News: Last week we looked at the pitch stability of an aircraft wing with fuselage. We could see the combination was unstable. Now we add a rear wing called a horizontal stabilizer to get the whole aircraft stable in pitch.
We use the DC9 as our example of a pitch stable airliner (Figure 1) as it has some interesting pitch stability problems outside the normal flying envelope. This we will discuss in coming Corners.
Figure 1. The DC-9, the airliner we use to study pitch stability. Source: Wikipedia.
Boeing deal, “crucial to Embraer survival,” in doubt
Update, Dec. 7: Embraer to appeal injunction.
According to the Google translation of a Brazilian newspaper, the injunction appears to be intended to halt any completion of the deal during the interim between the November presidential election and the assumption of office by the president-elect. The Google translation does not appear to indicate the injunction is based on any specific objection to the proposed JV.
ANALYSIS
Dec. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: In a stunning piece of news, a Brazilian court blocked the proposed joint venture between Boeing and Embraer.
If the action holds, this is a major blow to Boeing’s future plans.
The new joint venture, which LNC dubs NewCo for the lack of a name, was to be responsible for all future Boeing aircraft of 150 seats and below, according to a Memorandum of Understanding revealed by Embraer’s labor unions.
This is critical to Boeing’s long-term future for the 2030 decade. Read more
Breaking News: Brazilian court blocks Boeing-Embraer deal, reports Reuters
Dec. 6, 2018: A Brazilian court has blocked the proposed joint venture between Boeing and Embraer, reports Reuters.
Details are just emerging.
More reporting to come.