Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Asia-Pacific Air Traffic Management
June 24 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having covered the Air Traffic Management challenges in North America, Europe and Middle East we will now finish the series by looking at some specific problems affecting the Asia-Pacific region.
Asia-Pacific is the world region with the strongest growth in air traffic. IATA calculates that within 20 years half of the world’s air travel will originate or terminate within the region. Figure 1 shows that air traffic has several hot spots in Asia-Pacific, but also that there are areas with rather moderate traffic.
Figure 1. Air traffic’s main routes in the world. Asia-Pacific is an area with large differences in air traffic intensity. Source: Rockwell Collins
The region has its unique set of Air Traffic Management problems. We will now cover those that must be solved, should the region’s Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) be able to manage the forecasted growth in air travel in a safe way. Read more
Fuel prices rising, muted wide-body demand noted by analysts
Oil prices are rising and catching the attention of airline and aerospace analysts. Photo via Google images.
June 22, 2016: Our weekly synopsis of select analyst notes point to increasing fuel costs and weak wide-body demand, among other things, as issues to consider.
Highlights:
- A350 deliveries at risk due to Zodiac supplier issues. (Buckingham.)
- US airline stock is under pressure due to rising fuel prices. (Cowen & Co.)
- Stock for supplier Crane is rising due in part to rising oil prices. (CanaccordGenuity.)
- Global traffic growing at a slower rate than forecast. Wide-body demand muted. (JP Morgan.)
- Production rate increases at Boeing may be challenging. (Wells Fargo.)
Pontifications: Airbus CXLs A320, A350 August vacations
By Scott Hamilton
June 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus officials canceled the annual August vacations in Europe for the A320 and A350 production lines.
The A320neo and A350-900 are backing up on the delivery lines because of supplier issues with the Pratt & Whitney GTF for the former and galley and lav issues from Zodiac for the latter.
Qatar Airways Airbus A320neo awaiting new-production Pratt & Whitney GTF engines with fixes incorporated. Photo via Google images.
The delays and issues are well documented in the press and for aerospace analysts.
“I cannot confirm that rumor for you,” an Airbus spokesman wrote LNC in an email. “I can tell you that we are putting in place extra resources to deliver on our 2016 commitments and objectives in terms of deliveries, but we are not going into detail on what that looks like at this stage.”
Bjorn’s Corner: The Middle East Air Traffic Management
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 17 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having covered the Air Traffic Management challenges that are present in the North American and European airspaces, we will now put the light on another air traffic hot spot, the Middle East.
Figure 1 show that air traffic is more intense over the US and Europe airspaces but that there are main crossroads to Asia and Africa that take their route over the Middle East, and the area has hot spots.
Figure 1. Air traffic’s main routes in the world. Middle East is an area with hot spots. Source: Rockwell Collins
As we have seen, the technical solutions are well on their way to enable the implementation of a modern and efficient Air Traffic Management. Both the US and European air space modernization is hinging on how well the human factors change process can be accomplished (in the US budgets are also a hindrance).
If we add political factors to the jam, we have a good description of the situation in the Middle East. Read more
Thinking outside the box at Pratt & Whitney
June 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: “I’m working on six or eight engines. The more the better.”
This startling statement comes from Alan Epstein, vice president of technology and the environment for Pratt & Whitney.
It runs counter to everything the airline industry has believed since the introduction of the twin-engine Boeing 767 was qualified for ETOPS in the early 1980s: fewer engines are better.
Epstein explained his statement during an interview with LNC at the United Technologies Media Days last week in Hartford (CT).
Epstein last year at the same event told LNC he was looking at four-engine technology for future airplanes. We asked him this year if he was still looking at four engines. That’s when he said he was looking at six.
It’s his job to think outside the box. This one clearly qualifies.
Mid-Market airplane comes before A320, 737 replacement: Pratt & Whitney exec
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Introduction
June 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A middle of the market airplane will come before a replacement for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, predicts Alan Epstein, vice
Alan Epstein, VP technology and environment, Pratt & Whitney.
president of technology and the environment for Pratt & Whitney.
“The challenge to the business of the narrow-bodies is the A320s and the 737s are so learned-out that Boeing and Airbus are so efficient at building those airplanes, that their inherent cost is so low, it’s extremely difficult to move into that market,” Epstein said. “Because the learning curve, you need incredibly deep pockets and you’re going to be negative for a long time.
“I think that also applies to Airbus and Boeing,” Epstein said, referring to the prospect of a new single-aisle aircraft.
Summary
- New single aisle airplane would be a “white elephant” for 10 years.
- Engines need to be at least 10% more efficient than today’s GTF and LEAP for a new single-aisle aircraft.
- Middle-Market airplane likely to come first.
Weekly analyst note synopses
Note: LNC begins today a weekly synopsis of select analyst notes we receive in the previous seven days.
Highlights:
- Delta Air Lines guides down on weaker PRASM.
- Garuda claims it’s now a buyer’s market for new aircraft.
- Interior supplier B/E Aerospace sees a bright future.
- Boeing’s 787 deferred production plans faces challenges
- Irkut is pricing the MC-21 15%-20% under the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737-8.
Inexpensive real-time FDR system developed by California firm
The flight test pattern of a Thompson Aerospace real-time data transmission on a Boeing airplane. Click on image to enlarge.
June 14, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Egyptair Flight MS804 disappeared from radar May 19 and there is very little known about the last minutes of the flight at this writing.
A French ship two weeks ago reported hearing pings on the same frequency as the flight’s black boxes. As yet, the pinging hasn’t been confirmed as being from those boxes (remember the false alarm on the Malaysia Airlines MH370 search). The main wreckage and these boxes have yet to be discovered.
With the designed 30-day battery life of the pinger expiring just days away, this is yet another example of why real-time transmission of flight data from the airplane to the ground is needed.
As with MH370, followed by Air Asia Flight 8501 (whose boxes and wreckage were eventually discovered and recovered), the mystery surrounding MS804 spur new calls for action to provide real-time data streaming of a flight’s important information about the performance of the airplane and any anomalies.
Airbus officials aid during their Innovation Days presentations last week they are studying real-time data streaming. ICAO, the international organization the sets rules and requirements for the world’s airlines, has moved slowly since MH370 but now appears ready by year-end to establish requirements and deadlines for real-time data streaming.
Cost and bandwidth have been cited as principal obstacles to overcome.
But a small company in California says the technology is here today at an affordable cost, and it is fully compliant with ICAO standards.
Slowing economies begin to impact Airbus, Boeing
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Introduction
LatAm Airbus A350. LatAm may defer some A350s and/or Boeing 787s. Photo: Flickr via Google images.
June 13, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Signs are becoming more frequent that airlines are facing slowing economies around the globe, with impacts on existing orders in the backlog.
Last week JetBlue said it is trimming growth on rising fuel costs and softening revenue. LatAm also said last week that it plans to trim some Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 orders amid slumping traffic in Brazil. Delta Air Lines previously said it will defer four A350s and trimming growth due to slowing economy.
Summary
- Wide-body sales slowing this year.
- 787 Surplus developed.
- A330neo sales stall.
- A350-2000 on hold.
- 777 Classic sales stall.
- Cargo demand still anemic, says IATA.