Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Flight simulators
By Bjorn Fehrm
22 July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Last week at the Farnborough Air Show I had the chance to try three flight simulators: The MC-21 airliner simulator, the SAAB Gripen fighter simulator and a special simulator for testing some new 3D synthetic vision ideas for a future avionics system. I’ve now tried some dozen different aircraft simulators of different generations, not counting the PC-based ones.
The simulators were different types. Some were fixed with displays that wrapped around and covered the peripheral vision like the Irkut MC-21 and SAAB Gripen ones. Others were full motion with complete surround vision display like the Airbus A350 simulator that I trained in ahead of flying A350 MSN002 last April, Figure 1. A third type were closed full motion simulators that lacked a vision system.
Figure 1. Airbus full motion A350 simulator in Toulouse. Source: LNC
Compared with the very advanced Airbus simulator, I was surprised how realistic it felt with the simpler fixed simulators I tried last week. It made me wonder why.
Boeing announces $2bn in new charges
July 21, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing today announced $1.66bn in new after tax charges to its 787 and 747-8 commercial programs and a $393m after tax charge for its KC-46A USAF tanker program.
“On a pretax basis at the segment level, Boeing Commercial Airplanes will now record an earnings impact totaling $2.78 billion and the Boeing Military Aircraft segment of Boeing Defense, Space & Security will report an earnings impact of $219 million,” Boeing said in a statement.
Boeing also announced that a planned production rate increase for the 747-8 from 0.5/mo to 1/mo in 2019 has been cancelled.
Flying the Irkut MC-21 simulator
By Bjorn Fehrm
21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co:Russia’s United Aircraft Irkut division had the good taste to bring a fully functional MC-21 simulator to Farnborough Air Show. I managed to get an hour of take-offs and landings during the show’s early hours on Thursday.
The simulator consists of a fixed cockpit, Figure 1, with a panoramic screen giving a terrain view out of the cockpit windows. The terrain model was of good quality and the feeling of flying a good non-moving simulator was there.
Figure 1. United Aircraft’s MC-21 exhibition simulator. Source: LNC
The simulator was especially conceived for exhibitions but it didn’t seem to be less functional because of that. Flight laws should be the same as the full MC-21 simulators but the implementation team is separate from the team which is making the flight crew training simulators. I was accompanied in the Sim by Sergey, one of the software programmers of the simulator. He was interested in my impressions, as it was still relatively early days in the simulator’s design.
Interview with Rob Dewar: CSeries in service reliability
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier”s CSeries project has passed one hurdle after another during its development. The last one was the lack of Marquee customers on top of launch customer SWISS. This has now been solved with large orders from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines.
There is one hurdle remaining: what will be the aircraft’s reliability when it enters into service (EIS)?. We did the EIS interview with CSeries VP and program manager Rob Dewar only two days before the CS100 aircraft would fly its first operational sectors with Swiss last Friday. This autumn, airBaltic will put the larger CS300 into service.
Figure 1. Bombardier’s program manager for the CSeries, Rob Dewar. Source: Bombardier
Summary
- The CSeries has been designed for in service reliability from the outset of the project.
- Systems and solutions have been primarily chosen for the in-service maturity on other platforms.
- Any deviation from this philosophy, like for Fly-By-Wire, Geared Turbo Fan or Electrical brakes, requires that the technology earn its place in the project by bringing unique advantages.
Boeing KC-46A completes Milestone C
Boeing KC-46A refueling Boeing C-17. Photo via Boeing. Click on image to enlarge.
July 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing and the USAF last week announced that the KC-46A tanker successfully completed Milestone C in the refueling flight testing program.
The KC-46A completed refueling of five aircraft, a requirement under Milestone C: the F16, F18, AV8B Harrier, A10 Warthog and the C17. Additionally, the KC-46A itself was refueled from a Boeing KC-10.
The C17 previously proved to be a problem when aerodynamics for the refueling boom revealed more stress than was permissible.
Weekly analyst synopsis: Farnborough recap
July 20, 2016: Aerospace analysts had somewhat different takes on the commercial aviation portion of the Farnborough Air Show. This week’s analyst synopsis includes some of the analyst reports. Between now and the end of the month, earnings season begins reporting the second quarter results. Airbus reports July 27. So does Boeing. Bombardier and Embraer report after July.
Farnborough redefines the MOM sector
July 19, 2016, © Leeham Co.: If anything came out of the otherwise dull Farnborough Air Show, it was that the Middle of the Market airplane debate is as muddled as ever.
Boeing didn’t launch, or even say much, about the prospective 737-10, a slightly larger version of the MAX 9 intended to close the gap between the 9 and the Airbus A321neo. Boeing illustrates the 737-8-based MAX 200 as a separate model in its product line up. The 737-10 will slot in above the MAX 200, if built.
Boeing increased the demand in its 20-year Current Market Outlook for the small, twin-aisle airplane by 5%–a move Airbus claims is aimed at the Boeing Board of Directors to entice it to approve launch of the New Mid-range Aircraft, or NMA as Boeing now calls the MOM aircraft.
Airbus said the MOM sector ends at 240 seats (single class) and only a single-aisle airplane makes sense. This is a shift from long-standing messaging that the A321neo covers the lower end of the MOM sector and the A330-200/800 covers the upper end. This message was advanced as recently as the Airbus Innovation Days at the end of May.
With the rhetoric changing a bit, is it time to redefine the MOM sector?
Airbus’ Leahy shifts a bit on MOM aircraft
Introduction
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John Leahy, Airbus COO-Customers. Airbus photo.
July 14, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: Basking on an order for 30 A321LRs on the final day of the Farnborough Air Show, Airbus’ top salesman said the Middle of the Market sector stops at 240 passengers and it’s best served by a single-aisle aircraft.
John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer-Customers, said twin-aisle aircraft down to 240 or even 220 passengers don’t work economically against a single aisle. The A321LR (Long Range) seats a maximum of 240 passengers and it is single-aisle. Even though Airbus has a 250-seat A330-200R (Regional) and an A330-800 (7,200nm-plus range), Leahy didn’t attempt make a case that these aircraft are suitable for the MOM sector.
Summary
- A 767-200/A310 size replacement isn’t viable.
- Boeing’s 20-year market forecast for the mid-sized twin-aisle is for consumption for the Board of Directors.
- The A330-200R and A330-800 aren’t good MOM aircraft.
Pontifications: Airbus faces conundrum
By Scott Hamilton
July 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It wasn’t the dominating headline out of the Farnborough Air Show that Airbus would have preferred: a dramatic production rate cut for the slow-selling A380 from 20/yr to 12/yr from 2018.
A leak to the Paris newspaper La Tribune last Tuesday evening forced Airbus to announce the rate cut minutes later, ahead of prepping its employee work force. It was also ahead of an investors analyst breakfast meeting the following day in London. The event’s headlines would have been Tuesday’s unexpectedly strong number of Airbus orders after a dismal Monday for Airbus and Boeing. Instead, the rate cut dominated analysts’ thinking ahead of the breakfast.
Airbus stock closed at 52.53 Euros on the Paris stock exchange Tuesday before La Tribune’s story posted at 7pm. The stock was essentially flat the next day upon opening.
The A380 investors day jinx
- July 15, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: At an event like this, we pick up all sorts of snippets that don’t fit into any given story. So here’s a compilation of our Odds and Ends to wrap up our dedicated coverage of the 2016 Farnborough Air Show.
A380 and investors meeting: The Airbus A380 has been a sensitive topic for investors. Historically stock prices took a major hit when negative news about the A380 emerged. During an investors day in December 2014, one of the executives slipped that the program could be terminated. The stock took an immediate dive and other executives had to clean up the first one’s comments.
Airbus also holds an investors day during the Paris and Farnborough air shows. The latter’s was scheduled on Wednesday. The night before, the French newspaper La Tribune broke news that the production rate of the A380 will be reduced from 20/yr in 2017 to just 12/yr in 2018. Airbus scrambled to catch up to the story Tuesday night in advance of the Wednesday investors day.
The production breaks even at 20 but not at 12. Yet the stock opened down slightly and remained flat during the rest of the day before closing up slightly.
The jinx may be over, but perhaps Airbus either has to fix the A380 program or cancel its investors days.