Paris Air Show outlook for Boeing

Here is a preview for Boeing for the Paris Air Show. More detail will be coming from AirInsight next week.

22 Comments on “Paris Air Show outlook for Boeing

  1. http://www.glgroup.com/News/Paris-Air-Show-2011–Boeing-outlook-54217.html

    “What they probably won’t say, or dodge if asked, is that Boeing strategy is to let Airbus reach the point of no return on the A320neo before launching a new 7X7, which Boeing believes will be so superior to the A320neo that Airbus will have an obsolete airplane they can’t back out of.”

    That’s an interesting strategy. I am surprised Boeing let that be known, if that is truely their strategic plan to address the 160-240 seat range for the new 7X7 (two options 160-220 or 180-240). My guess is they also have a plan for incremential improvements for the full line-up of B-737NGs (which could include reengine with a clipped fan CFM-LEAP-X).

    I think the expectations of modest sales announcements at the PAS (for Boeing B-737NG, B-777, and B-787) is a reasonable one, and with the reasons sited (model line production slots sold out for years) could also apply the Airbus’s A-32X line (including NEO and non-NEO) and the A-330 line.

    I hope to see some B-747-8F/I orders and some B-767 orders. Boeing has lots of production room on those lines. Airbus could get some A-380 orders and some more A-32X-NEO orders (they traditionally like to hold orders quite and make announcements at air shows for PR reasons) I don’t expect any A-340 orders or A-400M orders, but could announce some A-330MRTT orders. I don’t expect any KC-46A orders, but could get some C-17A orders announced for Boeing.

    It is getting to the time for the USAF to announce the VC-25A replacement, most likely with 3 B-747-8BBJ versions if they expect to stay on schedule for a 2017 IOC. I know it is not budgeted, yet, but an announcement like that would be the most important announcement at any air show.

    • I doubt that “strategy” would actually work. Airbus are going to release a cleansheet replacement for the A320 at some point. Worse case for them is that they have to accelerate the new model so comes into service about five years after the Boeing model. And after having run down their Neo backlog in the meantime, just as Boeing will run down its 737 backlog now before the presumed new model. This would give the Neo a life of about 10 years – less than Airbus would like, but still OK for the investment they are going to make.

    • And by the way, I would say 2019 is a “challenging” Entry into Service date for the 737 replacement. Not impossible, but “challenging” in the way that the 2008 EIS date for the 787 was “challenging”. And we now know more about the 787 than we did back then…

  2. As I understand it, Airbvus will not have an A-32X replacement aircraft until at least the mid 2020s. Is that correct? The NEO is a major upgrade to the exsiting A-32X line-up, much like the B-737NG was to the B-737-CLASSIC line-up.

    Boeing has said the 7X7 is not a B-737NG replacement. But, the most interesting part of all of this is neither Airbus, nor Boeing are ever going to build a true B-757 replacement. They will build airplanes that come close and fly about 90% of the missions the B-757 is capable of, but not one that can replace it in all of its missions.

    The B-757 will remain an unreplaceable airplane due to its unique combination or seats, range, and performance.

    • You can’t set the 737-Classic to NG change (40% commonality) against the A320 to A320NEO (90..95% commonality).

      The way I see it Boeing tries to do a Microsoft “Our next OS version will fix
      all your needs and then some, only wait a year, no need to look elsewhere” thing.

      Only Microsoft never had to _pay_ for their delays and faulty product to boot;-)
      while Boeing just sunk $.5b into Air India alone for major overpromising.

      • I don’t believe that a wing span extension would be enough for your hypothetical A322. Perhaps a small A346-type tapered wingbox insert in combination with a roughly 4m extension of the span would do the trick. Although that would not be a cheap undertaking, it would still be much cheaper to do than an all new CFRP wing.

  3. As I have said before, Big B better pull off a hat trick on the 7late7 or the penalties for late deliveries are going to eat their lunch. I also don’t see any large orders for the 747-8, who wants it or needs it? As the customer base, those who pay for tickets continues to grow for the Busboys Jumbo, Airlines will just keep jumping on them for the true long hauls. As one who has had the pleasure it is a true AirShip.

    This whole thing about the replacement for the next short haul is a big card game. Big B has to replace the little whale and the Busboys want to wait and see what it is going to be before committing to a new one for them. I think the jury is still out on the A400M and the KC-46A will be a big question mark for DoD until First Article proves its self or not! The other interesting thing is who knew the A330 would be the choice of most long-haul smaller Airlines, most interesting to say the least; this bird could see a long production run.

    • “The other interesting thing is who knew the A330 would be the choice of most long-haul smaller Airlines?”

      I said it would be the hottest aircraft for the next 7-9 yrs. But that was 2003 & everybody knew the A330 was obsolete as soon as the 7E7 would be offerable..

      http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/1116430

      Boeing knew too, that’s why they “rushed” the Dreamliner a bit and launched a unprecedented media hype. Successful as we know now, over 900 sold..

  4. “What they probably won’t say, or dodge if asked, is that Boeing strategy is to let Airbus reach the point of no return on the A320neo before launching a new 7X7, which Boeing believes will be so superior to the A320neo that Airbus will have an obsolete airplane they can’t back out of.”

    I think we see a bit of wishfull thinking here.

    The “just” E1 billion Neo’s (A319, A320, A321), two engine options and a backlog of probably >1000 within a year, who would even consider backing out?!

    I think Boeig will have their 737 replacement into service around 2021. The current 737 backlog dries up in 2015-2016. Big question is: what the 737 supply chain is going to do 2015-2020. Building thousands of yet to be sold 737’s? I would hope so too..

    Meanwhile Airbus will keep working on the A30X, looking how the market evolves, what choices Boeing makes, how the CSeries do, what newer technology comes available, what Embraer does.. and then take a decision what / when / how to launch. Meanwhile they have 3 steaming A320 FAL’s.

    And that will be a big difference with Boeing I’m afraid. How many 737 will come of the line in 2018? 150? and at what margins?

  5. keesje :“What they probably won’t say, or dodge if asked, is that Boeing strategy is to let Airbus reach the point of no return on the A320neo before launching a new 7X7, which Boeing believes will be so superior to the A320neo that Airbus will have an obsolete airplane they can’t back out of.”
    I think we see a bit of wishfull thinking here.
    The “just” E1 billion Neo’s (A319, A320, A321), two engine options and a backlog of probably >1000 within a year, who would even consider backing out?!
    I think Boeig will have their 737 replacement into service around 2021. The current 737 backlog dries up in 2015-2016. Big question is: what the 737 supply chain is going to do 2015-2020. Building thousands of yet to be sold 737′s? I would hope so too..
    Meanwhile Airbus will keep working on the A30X, looking how the market evolves, what choices Boeing makes, how the CSeries do, what newer technology comes available, what Embraer does.. and then take a decision what / when / how to launch. Meanwhile they have 3 steaming A320 FAL’s.
    And that will be a big difference with Boeing I’m afraid. How many 737 will come of the line in 2018? 150? and at what margins?

    I agrree with you, there IS some wishful thinking here, but not by Boeing.

  6. keesje :Maybe Airbus will spend another Billion euros on the NEO and do a A322..
    http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/A322NEOTATLwithLOPA.jpg
    the GTF is good for it (40k Lbs)

    That cannot be a NEO, as it doesn’t exsist. and it doesn’t look like Airbus is listen to your advice. But, with thos specs. your “A-322” will be an Airbus version of the B-757.

    keesje :“The other interesting thing is who knew the A330 would be the choice of most long-haul smaller Airlines?”
    I said it would be the hottest aircraft for the next 7-9 yrs. But that was 2003 & everybody knew the A330 was obsolete as soon as the 7E7 would be offerable..
    http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/1116430
    Boeing knew too, that’s why they “rushed” the Dreamliner a bit and launched a unprecedented media hype. Successful as we know now, over 900 sold..

    Don’t forget all those give away A-330s to pay for delayed delivery penalties for the A-380 program. Is Airbus still giving them away, or are they now going at heavy discounts?

    • “Don’t forget all those give away A-330s to pay for
      delayed delivery penalties for the A-380 program.”

      The “reverse engineered” estimated sales prices published by
      some journalists don’t really seem to reflect this. A popular myth?

    • Don’t forget all those give away A-330s to pay for delayed delivery penalties for the A-380 program. Is Airbus still giving them away, or are they now going at heavy discounts?

      Could you please provide a source for this claim?

  7. KC135TopBoom :

    Don’t forget all those give away A-330s to pay for delayed delivery penalties for the A-380 program. Is Airbus still giving them away, or are they now going at heavy discounts?

    To the moderators, is this kind of blatant and aggressive trolling really what you wish to see on this blog? I understand you dislike comments about particular posters, but on the other hand, posters should then be strongly encouraged to remain factual, and not to troll.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_%28Internet%29

    Feel free to delete this post, I would have put it into a PM if there was such a function.

    Many thanks, and thanks also for providing a place where (overwhelmingly) sober discussion is possible.

    All the best

    Andreas

    • To TopBoom and others: It’s not our role to fact-check comments or to monitor “trolling.” Readers can do this. Further, what is viewed as “fact” by one commenter in reality may or may not be factually correct, regardless of the good-faith effort put into posting a “fact.”

      The only thing we “troll” for is the violation of our Reader Comment policies regarding personal attacks.

  8. “That cannot be a NEO, as it doesn’t exsist. and it doesn’t look like Airbus is listen to your advice.”

    KCTB we always deny everything until it hits us in the face. Some dare to look ahead, some prefer to look back. Here’s the NEO, 5 yrs ago. Lightsaber got the saving very accurate.

    http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/2724857/

    Not suggesting Airbus listened, but some business cases are not that hard to predict if have a good unconstrained look.

  9. OV-099 :

    Don’t forget all those give away A-330s to pay for delayed delivery penalties for the A-380 program. Is Airbus still giving them away, or are they now going at heavy discounts?

    Could you please provide a source for this claim?

    http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=2&art_id=47236&sid=14136333&con_type=1&d_str=20070620&fc=4

    in reply #1 from Thorben;

    http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/3305686/

    “I don’t think that is so wrong. They were looking at A333s or 773ERs. Despite those not being direct competitors, both aircraft have seen sales due to the A380 and A350XWB delays. LH, TG have bought A333s to compensate A380 delays, EK leases several 773ERs for the same reason, SQ will get 19 A333s because their A350XWBs come so late.”

    (since some here believe airliners.net as truthful)

    • OK, so you cannot provide a source for your claim that Airbus has supposedly been “giving away” A330s in compensation for delayed A380s. As for the link you provided which mentions a 30 billion baht (THB) price for 8 A330-300s in 2007; well, that’s roughly $112.5 million per plane (in 2007 dollar value). The list price in 2007 for an A330-300 was around $195 million. This would indicate that the discount was around 42 percent per plane, which btw, seems to be a normal level of WB-discounting in the industry.

      Source:
      Airbus List Price Hike Matches Boeing
      http://info.accessintel.com/cgi/catalog/sample?AVN

      The level of discounting on list prices remains significant. Net values for Airbus equipment, based on single unit values, suggest that narrowbodies are attracting discounts in excess of 35 percent. For widebodies, the discounting increases to more than 40 percent. Despite the popularity of the B767-300ER, net values of any new orders for passenger examples feature a 50 percent discount compared to list price.

  10. KCTB we all know who has been bending over unprecedentedly during the last few years to compensate countless embarrassing delays of many hundreds of aircraft for yrs.

    Btw, is the A350XWB delayed?

    • Yes, Airbus has so far announced two delays for the A-350. I believe combined they total about 9 months. Is it still called the XWB, even though it is not as wide as the airplane it is being built to compete with, the B-777?

      The A-380 was well over two years late, and has still not been produced in the yearly numbers Airbus has projected.

      Yes, the B-787 is some 3+ years late. Boeing has paid cash penalties, as well as discounted B-767s and B-777s for it.

      But back on topic here, I think there will be a moderate number of orders announced by Boeing. Unlike EADS/Airbus, they usually don’t sit on order announcements until an air show. But Boeing does list a number of orders as “unidentified” unless the customer wants it announced.

      • KC135TopBoom :
        Is it still called the XWB, even though it is not as wide as the airplane it is being built to compete with, the B-777?

        Why not, when after all the chaos Boeing still has the audacity to refer to the 787 as the “Dreamliner”?

        KC135TopBoom :
        The A-380 was well over two years late, and has still not been produced in the yearly numbers Airbus has projected.

        I look forward to seeing how many (complete) 787s Boeing manages to churn out monthly 2-3 years from now.

        KC135TopBoom :
        Don’t forget all those give away A-330s to pay for delayed delivery penalties for the A-380 program. Is Airbus still giving them away, or are they now going at heavy discounts?

        Not only does Boeing have its own fair share of give-aways due to delays in the 787 program, it seems the first few hundred 787s were essentially give-aways themselves.

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