Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus’ jetBlue A220 deal, first analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 12, 2018, © Leeham News: The Airbus A220 won its first battle against Embraer’s E2 E-Jets, winning the order to replace 60 Embraer E190s at jetBlue. The airline held a telephone conference yesterday, presenting its choice of the A220 and explaining why it chose the A220.
JetBlue said in the call it was a close race. We analyze how close.
Summary:
- JetBlue showed the advantages the A220-300 would have against the incumbent E190. The expected improvement in costs of 25%-30% were identified.
- The airline wouldn’t be drawn on the difference between the A220-300 and Embraer’s E195-E2, the real competitor. Our performance model shows it’s a close race.
JetBlue orders 60 A220-300s in surprise timing
July 10, 2018, (c) Leeham News: JetBlue announced an order today for 60 Airbus A220-300s, nee Bombardier CS300s. The airline took options on 60 more.
The timing is a surprise–JetBlue previously said it would not be ready to order until toward the end of the year.
The order is a blow to Embraer, which has 60 E-190s in service with JBLU. The airline had orders for 20 more, but delivery had been deferred several times. Industry insiders told LNC the order could be canceled with little or no penalty.
The order is a blow to Embraer for the flip and for the loss of a potential E2 order. The E195-E2 seats slightly fewer passengers and has less range than the A220-300.
JetBlue has a large fleet of Airbus A320ceos, a few A321ceos and a large order book for neos.
Boeing, Embraer tie-up key to NMA development
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Introduction
July 9, 2018, © Leeham News: When Boeing and Embraer announced last week the Memorandum of Understanding to form a joint venture between Boeing and 
Embraer Commercial Airplanes, writers and analysts jumped on the bandwagon that LNC pointed out as far back as last year.
Summary
This is:
- A strategic play;
- About Embraer’s engineers and low-cost production in Brazil;
- About tapping Embraer’s resources for development of the potential Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft; and
- About EMB’s potential lead in developing a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737, among other things.
Additionally, a Boeing partisan sees new trade complaint against C Series.
Related stories:
Boeing, Embraer to create commercial company, intent for defense JV
July 5, 2018: Boeing and Embraer announced an agreement to create a new company with EMB’s commercial aircraft unit and intent to create a second JV for its defense unit.
The full press release is below the jump.
Related stories:
Boeing eyes international sales with KC-46A deliveries near
Part 2. LNC visited the Boeing KC-46A Everett Modification Center last month. Part 1 appears here.
July 5, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s contract with the US Air Force for three dozen KC-46A tankers is but the tip of the iceberg.
Installing the refueling boom on a KC-46A tanker at the Everett Modification Center. Boeing photo.
The USAF’s initial plan is to acquire 179 KC-46As, which was part of the KC-X tanker competition Boeing won after a bitter contest with Airbus and the competing KC-30/KC-330 airplane, based on the commercial A330-200. (For simplicity, LNC will refer to the Airbus as the KC-30.)
There are more than 400 ancient Boeing KC-135s that have to be replaced. Boeing figures it will eventually see the initial 179 aircraft requirement expanded to cover the balance of the KC-135s, although due to budget constraints, last year there were reports the procurement will stop and 179 and the KC-135s will be upgraded.
Then there is the international market. Airbus so far is far and away the winner in this sector. It’s sold 57 to eight customers (including NATO); 29 are in operation. The first one entered service in 2011.
One Boeing, lessons learned from P-8, KC-767 find their way in KC-46A
Part 1. Part 2 will appear July 5.
Boeing KC-46As in the Everett Modification Center for military systems installation. Photo by Scott Hamilton.
July 3, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s development of the KC-46A aerial refueling tanker for the US Air Force is behind schedule and over budget, but production is underway and 34 tankers have been built.
Deliveries are running more than a year behind the original schedule. Boeing is already in production on a fourth tranche of tankers even before the next contract is signed, which is expected this summer.
Finally, after several delays, Boeing and the USAF announced the first tankers will be delivered in October, about 18 months behind schedule.
“In partnership with the U.S. Air Force, our team has made great progress on the KC-46 Tanker,” Boeing said in a statement. “With first delivery now set, the men and women of the Air Force know when they will start receiving this warfighting capability. The KC-46 is a top priority for The Boeing Company, and we have the best of Boeing working to ensure the U.S. Air Force gets their tankers as quickly as possible.”
LNC visited the Everett Modification Center (EMC) this month, speaking with officials of the program, who explained progress on the tanker line.
Vertical integration will be a ‘bumpy road’
By Laura Mueller
June 26, 2018, © Airfinance Journal: OEMs are targeting a larger piece of aftermarket revenues, but ultimately their airline
customers will determine whether a push to vertical integration is the right one, Brian Prentice, a partner at Oliver Wyman told delegates at the Leeham Co/Airfinance Journal Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile today.
Airbus supplier ownership structure questioned
By Laura Mueller
June 26, 2018, © Airfinance Journal: Airbus-owned, tier-one supplier Premium Aerotec could end up with different owners due to the changing supply chain landscape, Dr David Pritchard, associate professor SUNY Empire State College, told delegates at the Leeham Co/Airfinance Journal Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile today.
“I think it will likely be spun off to private equity investors…you need to look at changes in the airframe industry. It doesn’t make sense for Airbus to own it and to own everything,” he says.
Farnborough Air Show: No NMA, unlikely A321 Plus, no Boeing-EMB tie up
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Introduction
June 25, 2018, © Leeham News: Little in the way of excitement is expected at the Farnborough Air Show next month.
There won’t be any launch of the oft-talked about Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, aka 797).
Airbus continues to be coy about its response to the NMA. Studies about an A321neo Plus or Plus-Plus have been talked about almost as long as Boeing has been discussing the NMA. More recently, now there’s talk of an A321 XLR.
Summary
- Expectations for incremental airplane orders at the show should be low.
- No NMA program launch.
- Doubtful if Airbus launches A321neo enhancements.
- Airbus-C Series makes its debut—but to what end?
- Mitsubishi to showcase MRJ.
- Bombardier renews emphasis on Q400, CRJ.
- Embraer looks for order boost.
Southern state coalition bid likely for Boeing NMA assembly site
June 27, 2018, © Leeham News: A coalition of four Southern US states that joined to win the US Air Force tanker contact site location for Mobile (AL) will likely link up again to bid for the assembly line of the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft, officials of three of the states said yesterday.
The Aerospace Alliance includes Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.
An official of an economic development commission for Charleston (SC) said Charleston will also likely throw its hat into the ring.
The comments were made at the Leeham Co./Airfinance Journal Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference yesterday in Mobile. The conference continues today.
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Posted on June 27, 2018 by Scott Hamilton
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