Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
Embraer skyline has serious challenges
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Introduction
May 21, 2018, © Leeham News: As Boeing and Embraer continue merger discussions for the latter’s commercial airplanes unit, the EJet skyline has some serious challenges.
The only order for the E175-E2 is a conditional sale.
Lessors account for half the orders of the E195-E2 and most of the E190-E2 deals.
More than half the orders for the E190-E1 may be canceled.
The data, from the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker, is as of April 15 and doesn’t include options, MOUs or LOIs. The firm order from American Airlines, for 15 E175-E1s, announced after this date, has been added by LNC.
Summary
- Slow sales hamper the backlog.
- The E2 hasn’t taken off as expected.
- The E175-E1 remains the staple of the six-member family.
Read more
Pontifications: An in-depth assessment that people matter at Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
May 21, 2018, © Leeham News: In February, consultant Richard Aboulafia colorfully said Airbus was plagued by “decapitation” of its executive ranks as retirements and resignations came one after another after another.
In April, LNC raised the prospect of déjà vu all over again, discussing the Airbus departures and product turmoil beginning in 2016, recalling another one 2006 and comparing it with Boeing’s era of upheaval from 2007.
Last week, industry leader Steve Udvar-Hazy remarked at the 38th annual Airfinance Journal conference in Miami that “Airbus has its hands full with senior management leaving. Airbus has got to refocus to maintain market share.”
One day later, Carter Copeland of the Melius Research firm published a note devoted to the upheaval at Airbus.
I found the note to be of particular interest.
With Copeland’s permission, the entire note is reprinted below.
Boeing 777-9 or Airbus A350-1000 for the Gulf carriers?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 17, 2018, © Leeham News: The recent agreement between the US and the Gulf carriers limits the expansion of the carriers on the US market. As the premier long-range destination area from the Gulf is the US market, this will influence the lift needed by the three.
All three carriers, Emirates, Qatar Airways (Qatar) and Etihad, have decided on the 777-9 as the mainstay for their long-haul needs. With the change, the question arises, will Qatar increase the buy of the A350-1000 instead of taking the 777-9 and will any of the others reconsider?
To understand what’s involved we compare the capacity and the costs of the 777-9 and A350-1000. How large is the difference? Is the A350 the better choice if the extreme long-haul capacity needs decline?
Summary:
- The maximum range and per seat costs of the 777-9 and A350-1000 are close when compared apples to apples.
- The advantage for the 777-9 at full aircraft disappears quickly as load factors decline.
- If the needed capacity of the long-haul US routes declines, the 777-9 can be too much aircraft for the Gulf carriers.
Read more
GTF better, says one airline; engine OEMs need 12-18 months to solve issues, says lessor
May 16, 2018, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney has a long way to go to fix all its problems on the Geared Turbo Fan engine, but one airline customer says the situation is getting better.
Ted Christie, CFO of Spirit Airlines, said all five A320neos it’s received are now operating. These famously were pictured parked and months at the D/FW International Airport with covers on the engines.
The fuel burn is better than the advertised 15% reduction, Christie said, without specifying how much better. Industry scuttlebutt indicates the GTF is 1%-2% better than advertised.
Christie made his remarks yesterday at the 38th annual Airfinance Journal conference in Miami.
A330neo sales off to slow start: Air Lease Corp
May 16, 2018, © Leeham News: There is “intense” price competition between Airbus and Boeing on the A330neo and 787, says an industry leader.
Sales of the A330neo are “off to a slow start,” says Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of Air Lease Corp. Hazy expressed confidence in the neo, which ALC has ordered, seeing it as a “natural replacement” for the aging A330ceo, the Airbus A340 and the Boeing 767.
Hazy made his remarks at the 38th annual Airfinance Journal conference yesterday in Miami.
Air India, the struggling flag carrier
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 16, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Air India was started by the famous Entrepreneur and Pilot, JDR Tata, in 1932 as Tata Airlines. After WW2, it was renamed Air India and was made the flag carrier for India. In 1953 it was nationalized and a domestic carrier, Indian Airlines, was spun off.
Air India and Indian Airlines were both profitable before re-merging in 2007. Since the merger, the combined airline has been unprofitable as deregulation has increased the competitive pressure both Internationally and Domestically.
WTO issues ruling on EU appeal in Airbus-Boeing complaint
May 15, 2018, © Leeham News: The World Trade Organization today issued its ruling on the European Union appeal of WTO findings that Airbus received illegal subsidies for its commercial airplane programs.
The WTO appeal decision affirmed that the A380 and A350 received improper subsidies. However, all previous Airbus aircraft have repaid subsidies or cured improperly low interest rates, according to a lawyer who has seen the decision.
A summary of the WTO decision is here.
A Seattle Times report is here.
“The A350 got included on an acceleration factor based on low interest rates,” the lawyer told LNC.
Airbus could have proceeded with the A350 without launch aid, he said the WTO concluded.
Airbus claimed 94% of the Boeing complaints were rejected on appeal or through the process, said the lawyer. Six percent of the claims were upheld, involving the A350 and A380. LNC has not done an independent calculation on these figures.
“Boeing is left with a real thin victory,” the lawyer said.
Engines “huge” question for Boeing NMA, says top industry official
May 15, 2018, © Leeham News: The engine problems at all four OEMs mean a later entry-into-service for the prospective Boeing New Midrange Aircraft (797), says an influential figure in commercial aviation.
And the longer Boeing puts off a decision to launch the NMA, the more Airbus A321neos will be in service and the more difficult an already challenging business case for the NMA becomes, says Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of Air Lease Corp.
Hazy made his remarks at the 38th annual Airfinance Journal conference today in Miami.
Wide-body production rates show mix of strength, weakness
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Introduction
May 14, 2018, © Leeham News: Wide-body production rates by Airbus and Boeing are expected to go up modestly during the next three year, with a jump in 2022—if Boeing 777X production rates head for 7/mo in late 2022, as the company projects.
The supply chain was asked last year by Boeing for a Rate Readiness Assessment that suggests a rate of 5/mo in late 2021 and rate 7/mo a year later.
Airbus is expected to boost production of the A350 to 13/mo as early as late next year. Meanwhile, the A330 production rate is coming down due to soft demand.
These rates omit impacts of the US withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal, in which some 100 Airbus orders, mostly wide-body, and some three-score wide-body Boeing orders disappear with the action.
Summary
- Production rate hikes driven by A350, 767, 787.
- A380, A330, 747, 777 remain weak.
- Is entire twin-aisle market continuing a down-gauging?
Scott Hamilton will discuss production rates at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference next month in Mobile (AL). Click here for more information.
Pontifications: Engine problems are getting worse
By Scott Hamilton
May 14, 2018, © Leeham News: The engine problems are getting worse.
These have moved beyond the technical issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000, GE Aviation GEnx, Pratt & Whitney GTF and CFM56.
The problems are trickling down to the maintenance, repair and overhaul shops.
LNC previously touched on the back-up in MRO shops due to the RR Trent 1000 problems, affecting even Trent 700 (Airbus A330) MRO scheduling. We’ve also reported the knock-on effect of the GTF MRO on other engine shop visits.
The mandated-inspections of CFM56 fan blades in the wake of the Southwest Airlines accident last month inundated MRO shops with unexpected visits.
Now, a European appraisal company forecasts that the “bow wave” of CFM56 shop visits will create a crisis for spare engines and parts.