Is next airliner a single or dual aisle?

By Bjorn Fehrm

19 Feb 2015: There has been much speculation over the last weeks and months what Boeing is up to in the segment 200 to 250 seats, also know as the “757 replacement market“. The speculations over Airbus response are also vivid. One of the reasons is that apart from this segment the landscape of which civil airliners will be produced over the next 10-15 years is pretty much settled; Cseries is on final stretch of development, A320neo is flying while 737 MAX flies next year. A330neo will fly 2017 as will 787-10. A350-1000 start testing in 2016 with deliveries in 2017 and 777-9X flies 2019 with deliveries 2020.

Apart from an announcement by Russia and China that they will design a 250-280 seat widebody there is only the “757 replacement” segment which can result in a clean sheet approach from the major OEMs. Around this questions has arisen a lot of speculation about possible short and long term solutions. Having done a lot of checking of these alternatives with our proprietary model, we have learned that:

  • The 757 has an attractive capacity but is around 25% less efficient than the new generation of single aisle, A321neo or 737 MAX9, on the routes they can fly.
  • Airbus could stretch the A321 into something we called A321neoLR and indeed Airbus was working on it, it is now in the market as A321LR.
  • While 737 MAX9 limitations prohibited a response from Boeing we compared Airbus A321neoLR to what Boeing might come up with in their clean sheet design studies NSA (New Single Aisle) and NLT (New Light Twin)
  • Subsequently a 757 MAX was proposed but Boeing immediately declared that it does not work for them and we explained why.
  • Based on Boeing’s statement that the market is looking for something “a little larger than a 757” we looked into a 767 MAX with 767-200 as the airframe (it would be readily available from the KC-46 program) with GEnx-2B engines (from 747-8, they would fit). Once again it does not pass the first check, efficiency would not be much better than 757.

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Bombardier’s crisis of confidence perhaps the biggest challenge for CSeries

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Introduction

Feb. 18, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Alain Bellemare, Bombardier’s new president and chief executive officer, has his work cut out for him.

CSeries EIS v A320neo

Figure 1. The CSeries was supposed to enter service in late 2013, two full years ahead of the Airbus A320neo. This market advantage has been lost with repeated delays. BBD is sticking to its public statement that EIS is now the second half of this year (most put EIS in the fourth quarter), but there is growing belief EIS will slip to the first or even the second quarter of next year–after the A320neo EIS. Source: Bombardier, Airbus, Leeham Co. Click on image to enlarge into a crisp view.

We outlined the corporate and market perception challenges ahead of him in our Feb. 13 post. Investor and media reception to the CEO leadership change was mixed. Although Bellemare’s appointment was seen as a positive, stock traded down and Bombardier took a pounding in the press (see some reaction at the bottom of this post).

He also has challenges with a changing market place, driven by two years worth of delays in the CSeries program and exacerbated by a changing global political environment.

Summary

  • Bombardier faces a crisis in confidence from customers that has to be fixed.
  • The CSeries has lost its entry-into-service advantage over the Airbus A320neo and has reduced its advantage over the A319neo, the Boeing 737-8/7 and Embraer E-190/195 E2 EIS due to delays.
  • A changing global political environment poses additional risks to the CSeries skyline.

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Regional operations with the Turboprop, propjet or Jet; Part 2.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

15 Feb 2015: In Part 1 of this article series we started comparing the alternatives available for turboprop short haul services in the 70 seat segment; ATR72-600 and Bombardier Q400. We also included the closest regional jet, CRJ700 from Bombardier, to compare costs and see where a jet would be leehamlogo copyright 2015 small 210_87 pixelsneeded to keep trip times within reason.

In Part 1 we went through the capacity of the aircraft and their basic characteristics. We also did a first check of their typical fuel consumption on a standard mission of 300 nautical miles.

We will now look closer at the economics of the aircraft; we fly them over different sectors with different speed profiles. We will also dissect their Cash Operating Costs (COC) and Direct Operating Cost (DOC). Having done all this we will look at the crossover points; for what market is ATR72 the choice and where does Q400 fit. And finally, what route sectors require a jet?

Summary:

  • The ATR72-600, Bombardier Q400 and CRJ700 are quite different aircraft. The monikers turboprop, “propjet” and jet fit them well.
  • The positioning of the end of the scale products are clear, the intriguing aircraft is the Q400. When does it makes sense and has Bombardier positioned it correctly?
  • How does one explain its recent meager sales? Wrong aircraft at wrong time? Weak sales force? Wrong markets?

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Lufthansa fleet exec praises top-level change at Bombardier

Feb. 13, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: The appointment of Alain Bellemare as president and chief executive officer of Bombardier is viewed positively by the largest and most influential customer for the slow-selling CSeries, Lufthansa Airlines Group.

Nico Buchholz, EVP Fleet Management, Lufthansa Group.

Lufthansa has a firm order for 30 CSeries and options for 30 more. The Group’s subsidiary, Swiss, is to get the firm orders. The market anticipates that the Group could eventually exercise options for its other subsidiaries.

Nico Buchholz, executive vice president for fleet management for the Group, told Leeham News and Comment today that he has worked with Bellemare as a supplier-customer for years in his previous position as an executive of Pratt & Whitney.

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PNAA Conference: Bringing an out-of-production airplane back to life

Feb. 12, 2015: Boeing gets the headlines and the prospect of bringing back into production the 757, last delivered in 2005, has been a matter of some debate. Many point to the infeasibility or nearly so of bringing an out-of-production airplane back into production.

It’s been done. Viking Air of Canada purchased all the certificates and IP for the pre-Dash 8 Bombardier/de Havilland propeller airplanes, including among others the Twin Otter 19-passenger airplane.

David Curtis, president and CEO of Viking Air, explained the challenges of bringing the Otter back into production at today’s Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood (WA). Read more

Bombardier 2014 earnings, 4Q negative cash flow at Aerospace, debt/equity plan

Feb. 12, 2015: Struggling under the strain of two years of delays for the CSeries, poor sales of the Q400 and CRJ and a disastrous LearJet program, the world’s commercial airplane maker shuffled its very top leadership and announced it would seek more than $2bn in new debt and equity as the fourth quarter negative cash flow exceeded $1bn.

Bombardier said in its press release: Read more

Alain Bellemare, ex-CEO of United Tech division named Bombardier CEO

Feb. 12, 2015: Alain M. Bellemare, 53, was named president and CEO at Bombardier , it was announced today ahead of the company’s 2014 earnings call. The appointment is a move to restore confidence in Bombardier, its Aerospace division and the CSeries program.

Stakeholders in the CSeries program we had talked to expressed a desire for Pierre Beaudoin, who has become executive chairman, to step down.

According to Bloomberg Business, Bellemare has been consultant at United Technologies Corp. since January 31, 2015. He previously was President and CEO of UTC Propulsion & Aerospace Systems from July 26, 2012, to January 31, 2015. He also served as the president of Pratt & Whitney Canada and a number of other executive positions. Read more

PNAA Conference: EMB’s John Slattery: Market share from deliveries key in measuring success

Quotations are paraphrased.

Feb. 11, 2015: You can market share from sales. We don’t make revenues from sales but from deliveries, says John Slattery, chief commercial officer for Embraer. EMB dominates in deliveries, he said at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference today in Lynnwood (WA). Read more

PNAA Conference: Aboulafia–“A lot of positivity” (except for A380, 787)

Feb. 11, 2015: We’re at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood (WA) north of Seattle. This is the 14th annual conference. Appearing are consultant Richard Aboulafia, Airbus, Boeing, Embraer and a number of key suppliers.

This is the first of several reports, beginning with Aboulafia, of the consulting firm Teal Group. We’ll be reporting in the format of paraphrasing his and other presenters.

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Tomorrow’s Bombardier earnings call: trying to be upbeat in the midst of a tornado

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Introduction
As the market prepares for Bombardier’s 2014 year end earnings call tomorrow, CEO Pierre Beaudoin has his work cut out for him to restore confidence among the airlines and lessors who have ordered the CSeries and who might.

The abrupt departure last month of yet another aerospace sales chief, Ray Jones, is the third top executive to leave within a short time. Gary Scott resigned as CEO of the Aerospace unit for personal reasons. Chet Fuller, Scott’s successor, left after his three year contract wasn’t renewed. Jones followed Fuller out the door after 13 months. Guy Hachey, president of the aerospace unit, left in a corporate reorganization of the unit.

Key people is sales and marketing also departed after Jones took over. Philippe Poutissou, VP-Marketing, was unceremoniously ousted as Jones wanted his own team. Rod Sheridan, Vice President Commercial Aircraft Customer Finance, left and joined Nordic Aviation as vice chairman. There has been turnover in the sales force as well.

Summary

  • Customers bewildered by events.
  • Confidence in CSeries remains, but uncertainty swirls.
  • CSeries EIS seen slipping to 1Q2016.
  • Customers worry about lack of “relationships.”

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