Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Pontifications: Mitsubishi nears first flight for MRJ-90
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 3, 2015, © Leeham Co. Mitsubishi is just a few months away from beginning flight testing on the first commercial airplane designed and built in
Japan’s first commercial airliner after World War II was the YS-11 turbo-prop. Photo via Google images.
Japan since the NAMC YS-11 in the 1960s.
The 60 passenger turbo prop had its first flight in 1962 and entered service three years later with ANA. Only 182 were built, and it had a surprisingly wide customer base in the primary and secondary markets. Google images has a nice montage of the operators, which spanned the globe.
Japan’s first commercial airliner since the YS-11 is the MRJ-90 by Mitsubishi. Photo via Google images.
The Mitsubishi MRJ 90 as yet doesn’t have wide acceptance. There are about 200 firm orders and about an equal number of options, but the customer base is thin: 100 of the orders and 100 of the options come from the USA’s SkyWest Airlines and 50+50 are from the USA’s Trans States Airlines. All Nippon Airlines orders 15 and Japan Air Lines ordered 32. Air Mandalay ordered six and the new Eastern Airlines, a start-up carrier, ordered 20.
And that’s it.
The MRJ is a 2×2 passenger cabin configuration with comfortable 18-inch wide seats. The passenger experience should be similar to the Embraer E-Jet that’s been in service since 2004 and better than the Bombardier CRJ Series, which is a cramped cabin.
The MRJ is two years late. The first flight is now scheduled for October and entry-into-service in 2017. But with the vast majority of the orders coming from US regional airlines that contract for US majors, there’s just one problem: the MRJ-90 exceeds the allowable airplane weight in the pilot contracts permitting regional flying on behalf of the majors. This is under what’s called the Scope Clause.
Embraer delays KC-390 one year in 2Q2015 earnings announcement
July 30, 2015: Embraer reset entry into service for its KC-390 tanker/transport will be in 2018 vs 2017 when it reported its 2Q2015 earnings today.
The press release is here.
The KC-390 is Embraer’s largest aircraft, with a fuselage the size of a Boeing 767 width and the length of a Boeing 737. The airplane is being developed with government backing, intended to serve the remote regions of Brazil. Embraer also plans to market the airplane for export. Government funding has been squeezed with Brazil’s latest economic decline. Embraer has $390m in accounts receivable from the government.
The financial numbers were somewhat mixed, with a decline in revenue forecast for its defense unit, lower EBIT margins but solid commercial aircraft backlogs.
Embraer’s revised guidance is here. EMB’s 2Q2015 earnings presentation is here: EMBRAER_2Q15_Results
Goldman Sachs has this initial reaction:
Pontifications: ExIm reform
By Scott Hamilton
July 6, 2015, © Leeham Co. The US ExIm Bank authorization expired last week. As readers know, I’m a strong advocate of renewal of the authorization. Boeing, and other companies, hope reauthorization can be achieved this month.
I won’t restate the reasons I think ExIm should be reauthorized, nor my utter disdain for the right-wing Republicans and Tea Party types who don’t get that the Bank helps Boeing sell airplanes and sustain or create jobs. I’ve written about this many times, and the competitive disadvantage Boeing will have vs Airbus, whose European Credit Agencies will take full advantage of this.
But there are some points on the “other side” to revisit.
Embraer CEO talks about risks
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Introduction
Embraer CEO Paulo Cesar Silva. Photo: AINOnline via Google Images.
June 22, 2015, Paris Air Show, © Leeham Co. Embraer has emerged as the#3 commercial aircraft producer over the years, behind Airbus and Boeing and overtaking Bombardier, by approaching risks carefully and conservatively. No other decision in recent years reflects this approach than what to do when events outside its control forced officials to decide what to do about the future of the E-Jet.
Bombardier launched the CSeries with a new design and a new engine. The larger of two models, the CS300, was a direct challenge to Airbus and Boeing and their smallest aircraft. Airbus responded with the New Engine Option family, forcing Boeing to react with the re-engined 737, the MAX.
With the smallest CSeries, the CS100, a competitor to the largest EJets, the E190 and E195, Embarer had to do something. The question was what.
Embraer could launch an entirely new, larger aircraft, following the Bombardier example. It could do a “simple” re-engine of the EJet. Or it could do something else.
Officials chose to stay away from confronting Airbus and Boeing with a CS-300-sized EJet. Instead, they drew the line at 133 seats in highest density, adding 12 seats to the E-195. The Pratt & Whitney GTF was chosen to power a fundamentally new airplane, one with new wings, new systems, aerodynamic upgrades and other improvements.
We met with CEO Paulo Cesar de Souza e Silva at the Paris Air Show to talk about EMB’s approach to global risk factors.
Summary
- Oil prices, over-ordering and over-expansion by airlines factor into Embraer’s market assessments.
- Airline focus on market share rather than profitability is bad decision-making.
- Asia is Embraer’s best opportunities today.
Embraer gains 125 orders at half-year
John Slattery, chief commercial officer, Embraer Commercial Aircraft. Photo via Google images.
June 17, 2015, Paris Air Show, c. Leeham Co. With focus, as always, on Airbus and Boeing, and an airplane that neither exists nor is about to any time in the near-term (the Middle of the Market aircraft), little attention was paid to Embraer, currently the third of the Big Four commercial aircraft companies.
Embraer finished the Air Show (which essentially ends June 18 for the industrial sector), with 50 orders for the E1 and E2 E-Jets.
John Slattery, the chief commercial officer, said the company is ending the first half of the year with 125 
firm orders for the two platforms. EMB now has 70 customers, headed for its target of 100 by 2017, and an important new customer joined the ranks, albeit through a used airplane transaction. Delta Air Lines will purchase 20 E-190s once a new pilot contract is ratified. The airplanes will be flown by Delta pilots for the mainline carrier, not one of its regional partners.
Airbus COO faces production challenge vs bulging order book
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Introduction
June 15, 2015, Paris Air Show, c. Leeham Co. Airbus, like Boeing, is faced with an embarrassment of riches: too many 
orders for the A320 and A350 production rates that have been announced. There’s pressure from the top commercial officer to hike rates, but the president and chief operating officer says not so fast.
Tom Williams was elevated to the presidency only a few
months ago from his position as EVP-Programs, where he was in charge of production and the Airbus supply chain. Williams, a Scotsman and the first non-French or non-German to be president and COO of Airbus Commercial, ruefully observes he didn’t give up the production and supply chain duties with his new title.
Although Williams agrees with John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers, that demand indicates higher rates are needed for the A320 and A350, the demands on the supply chain for Airbus, as well as the other airframers, also demands caution.
- Summary
- Decision end of this year or early next on A380 production rates.
- A380neo launch aid reported—but it’s premature.
- No decision yet on greater than 50 A320 production rate per month.
- Pondering hike in A350 production rate beyond the 10/mo announced.
- Cabin suppliers a top concern.
Bombardier ‘transformation initiative’ goes after costs across the enterprise, supply chain
June 8, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Bombardier suppliers, already squeezed by Airbus and Boeing to cut costs and prices,
Alain Bellemare, CEO of Bombardier.
will soon face a new effort from Bombardier to do the same.
The new chief executive officer, Alain Bellemare, last week announced a “transformation initiative,” of which going to the supply chain is but one part for cut costs across the enterprise.
Bellemare, who was named CEO in February, knows something about cost cutting. He was an executive at Pratt & Whitney, a unit of United Technologies, before coming to BBD, and has been on the giving and receiving end of demands to cut costs.
Bellemare was named with the charge to restructure Bombardier, after billions of dollars in losses, cost over-runs and delays in corporate and commercial aircraft programs, the highest profile of which is the CSeries. The CSeries is the bet-the-company leap into mainline jet aircraft which, at the lower end, compete directly with Airbus and Boeing.
In an interview with Bellemare at the International Air Transport Assn. Annual General Meeting Monday in Miami, Bellemare covered a wide range of subject about how BBD will be remade.
Paris Air Show: Qatar and others
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Introduction
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. It could be called the Qatar Airways Air Show.
Qatar Airways plans to have five airliners on display at the Paris Air Show in two weeks: the Airbus A319, A320, A350, A380 and the Boeing 787. The carrier hasn’t 
announced whether it will provide an aerial display as it has at previous air shows, but Qatar may well have more airliners there than Airbus or Boeing.
As for manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing, we don’t expect anything of consequence from these.
Summary
- Irkut, COMAC, Mitsubishi, Sukoi and ATR are other major aircraft producers that will be at the Paris Air Show.
- Engine makers CFM International, GE Aviation, Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and Engine Alliance will also be there.
- An update on Airbus expectations.
Embraer ramps up smaller airplane messaging
Figure 1. Click on image to enlarge.
May 28, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Embraer is ramping up is messaging that the E-Jet family provides a better Return on Capital Employed in many circumstance than the larger Airbus and Boeing single-aisle family.
In a new push to be unveiled at the Paris Air Show in a little over two weeks, Embraer will describe its “New Metrics for Success” to an international audience in an open forum.
EMB has been showing airlines and lessors the concept for some time, and we received a briefing on the essential elements when we visited EMB last October at is home base in San Jose, Brazil.
New Metrics for Success takes airlines away from the traditional metric of economics, the Cost per Available Seat mile, and focuses trip costs and the higher quality revenue obtained by limiting the number of low-yield seats on a flight that must be offered to fill larger airplanes. Read more
Flying the Airbus A350
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 25, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Friday we showed our little video from our test flight of Airbus A350 at end of April. Now it is time to describe the impressions during the flight more in detail. Different from the excellent reports of other magazines that were present, we will look deeper into flying an aircraft with Fly By Wire in contrast to a conventionally controlled aircraft and less in trying to compare the A350 with other airliners, as we don’t have this experience.
Our lack of experience in flying airliners has an advantage when it comes to first impression of how it is to fly the much-discussed Airbus Fly By Wire (FBW) concept. My experience so far has all been non-FBW aircraft, from very small and slow (Tiger Moth) to the fast and a bit larger (Mach 1.7 SAAB Draken). In all, I’ve flown 14 different types. To that, one can add having flown the Embraer KC-390 simulator last October. Some of the aircraft have had no servos. Others had 100% servos with artificial feel through springs working on the stick. Autopilots have differed widely from wings leveler to flight director aircraft with coupled ILS approaches. None has had auto-thrust to date except for the KC-390.