Leeham News and Analysis
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2015 a year of execution for Embraer commercial
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Introduction
Jan. 7, 2015: Embraer, the world’s #3 commercial airplane manufacturer, 
enters 2015 viewing this as a year of execution, says its chief commercial officer, John S. Slattery.
There are three pillars:
- Continuing to fill out the balance of the current generation orders and commitments in advance of the E-Jet E2 re-engined airplane scheduled for entry-into-service in 2018;
- Execution to continue to grow the commitments for the E2—there are already 590; and
- Execution for the next several years for the milestones of the E2 development.
Summary
- Customer base goal by the end of 2017;
- Customer support;
- Barriers to entry for competitors.
Odds and Ends: 737 MAX order breakdown; Airbus to top Boeing; Embraer to PNAA event
Click on image to enlarge into a crisp view. Source: Boeing.
Jan. 6, 2015: 737 MAX Orders: Boeing has broken down the 737 MAX orders for the entire program in response to our inquiry. The 737-8 has captured 87% of the program orders since launch in 2011. The MAX 8 includes the 100 MAX 200 orders for the high density version, placed by Ryanair last year. The MAX 9 has 11% and the MAX 7 just 2% (figures are rounded).
Airbus to top Boeing: It’s not really a surprise, because it seems to happen just about every year. Reuters is reporting that Airbus will top Boeing in gross and net orders when it reports its 2014 performance next week.
Embraer to PNAA: Embraer’s chief commercial officer, John Slattery, will speak at the Feb. 10-12 conference for the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance. EMB has presented previously but this is the first time Slattery is joining the conference. Click on the banner ad above to go directly to the conference website.
Odds and Ends: AirAsia 8501, PNAA Conference, FWIW
Jan. 2, 2014: AirAsia 8501: Our friend Geoff Thomas has an interesting commentary about the AirAsia 8501 story. Also, an Airbus A330 pilot for a major US airline, offered these observations about QZ8501. A Linkedin profile suggests this pilot flies for Delta Air Lines.
We are now beginning to see more and more “conclusions” about what happened to 8501 from people who are being described as “experts.” Some of these are people we’ve never heard of, although this isn’t necessarily indicative that they don’t know what they are talking about–but we don’t think they do.
Since the airplane hasn’t been confirmed as found (searchers only think they’ve found it, but bad weather and bad seas have, at this writing, prevented confirmation), nor have the black boxes been recovered, the conclusions being set forth are interesting theories but that’s all they are.
Most of these possibilities are precisely what we’ve reported as areas of investigation and questions to be asked and answered. They way these “experts” are positioning possibilities is actually pretty embarrassing.
Treat these reports with the skepticism they deserve.
One thing we are surprised at: how quickly one of the few victims recovered has been buried. We thought an autopsy would take longer, and an autopsy would be the first clear indication of what happened: whether the victims died by blunt force trauma (i.e, impact with the water) or from decompression (suggesting an inflight fuselage rupture or mid-air break up).
Sixteen bodies are now reported to have been recovered (at 8:30pm PST Jan. 1).
Looking ahead in 2015 in commercial aviation
Here’s a visualization of events to look for in commercial aviation in 2015.
Click to enlarge for crisp view.
MTU investors day: views of its engine programs, future airplane timelines; separately, Embraer COO interview
Figure 1. Technical milestones have been passed on PW GTF programs for the applications on Bombardier, Airbus, Mitsubishi and Irkut airplanes and are approaching for Embraer. Source: MTU Investors Day. Click to enlarge.
Nov. 30, 2014: MTU Investors Day: MTU is a major participant in engine development and supplies, participating on the GEnx, GTF and GEnx program. It’s also a member of the joint venture in International Aero Engines and it’s a major player in the aftermarket Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) sector, providing a serious competitive alternative to the aftermarket contracts offered by the engine OEMs. Its held an investors day conference Nov. 25. Highlights included:
- Milestones have been passed on the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fanengine for the Bombardier CSeries, Airbus A320neo family, the Mitsubishi MRJ and Irkut MC-21; and are on schedule for the Embraer E-Jet E2.
- The success of the GTF is requiring huge production commitments.
- The large number of airplane/engine programs require a major ramp-up of production during the next few years.
- The major investment in new engines is largely over for now, leading to the expectation of long-term revenue from MRO.