Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Odds and Ends from Paris Air Show
- A350-1100, A380neo
- A350-900, 787-10 thrust issues
June 18, 2015: The industrial part of the Paris Air Show is over, and here are some closing odds and ends.
We may have some more next week when we decompress.
A350-1100 and A380neo
The prospect of an Airbus A380neo was one of the top topics this week. Airbus suggested a neo might include a modest stretch, which was the only piece of new information about the neo topic in the public press conferences. We have more on this after this….
The Wall Street Journal reported that Airbus is talking with customers about the prospect of a stretch of the Airbus A350-1000, commonly referred to as the A350-1100. The Seattle Times reported there are no customer talks (link not available-we used up our free access, but you could search The Times).
We asked John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers of Airbus about the A380neo and the -1100 on the sidelines of the closing Air Show press conference:
Engine Alliance undertakes PIPs, but not to level Emirates wants
June 17, 2015, Paris Air Show, c. Leeham Co. Engine Alliance, one of the two power plant suppliers for the Airbus A380, said today that it is undertaking Performance Improvement Package (PIP) upgrades to the GP7200 to lower maintenance and operating costs and to reduce fuel burn.
This contrasts with blunt remarks from Tim Clark, president and COO of Emirates Airlines (EK), that EA has “flat lined” and isn’t undertaking PIPs. Emirates is by far the largest operator of EA-powered A380s but recently ordered the competing Rolls-Royce Trent 900s for EK’s 50 A380s ordered late last year. Clark kept engine selection open at the time.
Dean Athans, Engine Alliance president, told LNC today that the A380 is a low-volume airplane and the
David Athans, president of Engine Alliance
business case for investing in the GP7200 to the level Clark want’s isn’t there.
“Tim is acting in the best interests of Emirates Airline, and he wants to most and the best of GP that he can get,” Athans said in an interview. “I’d do the same thing if I was in his place. He wants a brand new engine. He wants a large GTF or GE9X version for this A380s. I would, too. The position I’m in, looking at the volume and the business case for the A380, it doesn’t enable that level of investment.”
At the Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Assn. last week in Miami Beach (FL), Clark told LNC that EA wasn’t willing to invest in the PIPs Clark wanted, and RR is.
Pontifications: National policy, national security
By Scott Hamilton
June 15, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The battle between the the Big Three US carriers, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, vs the Big Three Middle Eastern carriers, Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways, was a big over-hang at the 71st International Air Transportation Assn. Annual General Assembly last week.
The US3 charge that the ME3 have received around $42bn in subsidies and claim continued government support put them at a disadvantage. Loads of information has been reported, with claims and counter-claims going back and forth. But the IATA conference attendees, including members of the media, were looking for sparks to fly between Doug Parker, CEO of American Airlines, who was on a couple of panels and who was voted president of IATA for the next year, Tim Clark, president of Emirates and Akbar Al-Baker, CEO of Qatar.
Hot competition in Middle East, Airframe analysis.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 15, 2015, C. Leeham Co: We have previously written about the interview with Emirates Airline President and COO, Tim Clark, where he says that in the present competition for Emirates’ medium haul 330 seaters, one can see that the extreme hot conditions for Dubai International Airport can cause trouble for aircraft which are dimensioned for normal airport conditions. This will hit a dedicated medium-haul aircraft like the Boeing 787-10 harder than a long-haul aircraft turned medium-haul like the Airbus A350-900.
The latter is designed to take-off with higher weights and has therefore a larger wing and stronger engines; it has more margins in a medium-haul mission. We looked at how the engines react to hot conditions last week and will now look at the airframes.
Summary:
- The airframes have in principal three limitations for hot takeoffs:
- Balanced field length (includes the safety precautions for losing an engine)
- Brake energy absorption restrictions for an aborted take-off
- Tire speed restrictions
- The 787-10 is an optimized mid-range design. In the hot climate of Dubai it has less margins for a take-off with a large payload for a typical flight than a long range design like A350-900.
- We explore where those limits are and how they can affect daily operations.
Bjorn’s Corner: Hot competition in Middle east.
By Bjorn Fehrm
- Boeing needs hundreds of 777 orders to bridge the production gap is now open to all Readers.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
12 June 2015, C. Leeham Co: Earlier in the week we had an interesting interview with Sir Tim Clark, , president and COO of Emirates Airline. We discussed Emirates’ requirement for a twin aisle medium/long range complement to their Airbus A380 and Boeing 777 fleets. The competition is between Boeing’s 787-10 and Airbus’ A350-900. So far the assumptions have been that the 787-10 will be hard to beat on pure costs per seat for mid-range requirements in the 300-seat segment.
The 787-10 seats 323 passengers in Boeing’s old-fashioned IAC three class seating and 331 in our more modern, normalized two class seating with 60 inch angled lie flat in Business and 32 inch economy section. The A350-900 has so far seated 313 seats in the same normalized seating standard. Recent cabin changes by Airbus can now increase that to close to 330 seats. The configuration changes were originally conceived for A350-1000 but we believe Airbus will offer these to Emirates and they will make it into the -900 catalog.
The 787-10 is lighter and would therefore be more effective on fuel but the difference is small, given the A350-900’s more modern engines. So the overall discussion was that 787-10 had found its ideal customer, in need of many seats, a solid mid-range performance and lowest cost. That was until Monday’s interview with Clark.
A380 cost improvements limited to seating, for now: Bregier
- MOM airplane doesn’t make sense.
- A new MOM should have new technology and it’s not available until 2030.
June 9, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Cost improvements for the A380 will be limited for now to
Fabrice Bregier, CEO of Airbus. Image from The Telegraphy via Google images.
increasing seating capacity, the president and chief executive office of Airbus told Leeham News and Comment in an interview today.
Aside from taking weight out of the airplane, which is already being done, Fabrice Bregier said Performance Improvement Packages (PIPs), such as aerodynamic improvements and adjustments to the wingtips, would wait until–or if–Airbus re-engines the airplane. And Bregier said Airbus is in no hurry to make a decision about this, despite pressure from the largest A380 customer, Emirates Airline, to launch the neo.
We want engine choice, say airlines at IATA
Willie Walsh, CEO of British Airways, says sole-sourcing the engine on the 747-8 cost Boeing an order. BA bought the Airbus A380 instead. Photo source: SI.WSJ.net via Google images.
June 9, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Airlines want engine choices, not sole-source on airplanes, airlines said at the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) Annual General Meeting in Miami Beach (FL).
Sole-sourcing cost Boeing a major order for the slow-selling 747-8, said Willie Walsh, CEO of British Airways. Relations at the time between British and GE Aviation, the sole engine provider on the 747-8, were so poor BA decided instead to order the Airbus A380, where a choice between the Engine Alliance GP7200 and the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 was possible GE is a JV partner in Engine Alliance with Pratt & Whitney. BA bought Rolls.
Emirates A350/787 bake-off remains wide open
Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline. Photo: Skift.com via Google images.
June 9, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Competition between Airbus and Boeing remains wide open between the A350-900 and the 787-10, says the president of Emirates Airline despite an Internet report that the carrier has tilted toward Boeing.
“No, I don’t know where that’s coming from,” Clark today told Leeham News and Comment on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Assn. Annual General Meeting in Miami Beach. “If anything, the 10 is not coming up with the thrust requirements that we need. We’re working with Boeing on that, whereas the A350-900 has got bags of thrust.
IATA: Lufthansa welcomes US carriers to Mid-East dispute
Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa Group
June 7, 2015: The chief executive officer of Lutfhansa Airlines said he welcomes the Big Three US airliners to the dispute over whether the Big Three Middle Eastern carriers are unfairly competing against legacy airlines.
Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa Group, told a press conference on the opening day of the IATA Annual General Meeting that LH has long been complaining about Emirates Airline, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways and their aggressive expansion, first in Europe and now the US.
American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are challenging open skies and subsidies to the ME3.
Widebody sales prospects this year
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Introduction
June 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Sales of widebody jets have slowed going into the Paris Air Show in under two weeks. Airbus sold six A330-200s, four A330-200Fs and
Boeing hopes to make a sale to Emirates Airlines later this year for the 787-10, giving a boost to this program and acing out Airbus in the process.
25 A330-900s, or 35 widebodies. No A350s. No A380s. Boeing sold three 747-8s, one 767, 25 777 Classics and (net) 34 787s, or 63 widebodies.
But we expect sales to pick up for the second half of the year, propelled by what appears to be enticing hints by Airbus that it may have finally achieved sales from China for its long-stalled A330ceo Regional airliner.
But the big prize, the Emirates Airlines order for 50-100 Airbus A350s or Boeing 787-10s (the number varies), is likely a late-in-the-year deal. There are a couple of others of decent size being competed as well.
And then there is the prospect of the launch of the Airbus A380neo.
Summary
- Airbus looks to Air Show to boost orders
- Boeing continues to hope 777F will save the day on the Classic
- Deals by year-end hoped for.
- Next big opportunity: the Dubai Air Show.