Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Asian airline shift portends big ramifications
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Introduction
April 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: A shift is underway among Asian airlines that could have ramifications for the airframe and engine manufacturers and, by extension, their suppliers.
It doesn’t appear, however, that aerospace analysts in the US and Europe realize this shift. At least none has written about it that we’ve seen among the research notes we receive.
Summary
- The creation of the Value Alliance of Low Cost Carriers brings together eight LCCs under one alliance.
- AirAsia faces a competitive threat.
- Full service carriers also face a threat, particularly those in Japan, concludes one aerospace analyst team in the region.
- Airbus, Boeing have a backlog of more than 1,000 airplanes with the VALCC group and hundreds more with other airlines.
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Could an NMA be made good enough, Part 4?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week we finished the sizing of the fuselage for an NMA design. Now we continue with the wing. We go through the key parameters that will decide the performance of the wing and the aircraft.
The NMA is a critical design case. The performance envelope has to be just right. Too high and the economics of the aircraft won’t work, both for purchase price and operational costs.
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
Summary:
- Wing design is the mixing of conflicting requirements to a successful compromise.
- The NMA wing will use the design principles of the Boeing 787/777X wings but will be different in area, size and plan-form.
- The wing is sizing the engines, something we will look at in the next article.
Delta reviewing Airbus wide-body order, but more is going on
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Introduction
April 12, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Delta Air Lines today said on its earnings call that it is reviewing its wide-body order with Airbus.
At face value, the Delta statement might seem alarming. But as so often becomes the case, the “review” may not be what it seems.
Summary
- There is more activity about fleet requirements than simply “reviewing” the wide-body orders.
- Delta’s preparing to issue an RFP for single-aisle Airbus A321neos and/or Boeing 737-9/10s.
- Boeing hopes Delta will be a launch customer for the MAX 10.
- The NMA/MOM aircraft could be involved.
Middle Eastern airline turmoil hits Boeing
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Introduction
April 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Tim Clark of Emirates Airline said the new breed of long-haul, low cost carriers are hurting EK’s load factors and yields.
Etihad Airlines’ business strategy of taking financial stakes in LCCs hasn’t produced the positive financial results desired.
Three big airlines, EK, EY and Qatar Airways, face over-capacity now compounded by electronic carry-on restrictions by the US and UK.
Figure 1. Click on image for a crisp view.
The thee carriers largely compete for the same connecting traffic through hubs only 72-235 miles apart (Figure 1). This is like having hubs in Milwaukee and Chicago (81 air miles apart) and Chicago-Detroit (237 air miles) with much, much smaller domestic catchment basins.
Summary
- Declining financial results for Emirates, Etihad.
- Deferring airplanes: 787s, 777X
- Long-haul LLC, Trump travel ban, poor investments hurt the airlines.
Could an NMA be made good enough, Part 3?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After sizing the cabin of the NMA, the time has now come to size the fuselage. Can a fuselage be designed that gives an NMA “dual aisle comfort with single aisle economics”?
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
We will investigate the dimensions, the drag and the weight of an NMA fuselage. It will be based on the cabin and design techniques we described in Part 2. We then compare the efficiency of the result with the fuselages of the Airbus A321LR and Boeing 767. This will show if the necessary efficiency can be achieved.
Summary:
- It’s possible to design a dual aisle fuselage with the same perimeter per seat abreast as a single aisle fuselage.
- This will make the central, cylindrical, section have competitive weight and drag characteristics.
- The larger diameter of the dual aisle fuselage will increase the size of the tapered front and rear sections however.
- It’s still possible for an NMA fuselage to be as weight-efficient as a single aisle fuselage, measured per transported passenger.
No new design needed for turboprops, says Bombardier
- Part 1, ATR, appeared last week. Today’s interview with Bombardier completes the two-part series.
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Introduction
April 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier doesn’t think a new, clean-sheet turboprop aircraft is needed any time soon, a position that stands in contrast with rival ATR.
Bombardier Q400.
Ross Mitchell, VP Commercial for BBD, believes the Q400 covers the turboprop segment from 70 to 90 seats and its operational flexibility covers everything airlines need today.
However, ATR has 85% of the backlog with BBD capturing the other 15%.
Still, Mitchell gives a strong defense of the Q400.
Summary:
Don’t believe everything ATR claims about operating cost advantages, BBD says.
BBD can move cockpit and wing production from Canada to lower costs—but where is the question.
Re-engining the Q400 isn’t in the cards, at least any time soon.
Could an NMA be made good enough, Part 2?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the first part of our investigation on how good an NMA can be, we explored low weight and drag fuselage design. We will now continue with the design consequences for the fuselage construction and the cabin.
What drives whether one goes for an Aluminum or CFRP (Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer) fuselage?
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200 pictured). Source: United.
What will be the typical dimensions for an NMA fuselage and what will be passenger capacities?
Summary:
- An elliptical fuselage will force a CFRP design.
- The fuselage door configuration will be critical for cabin capacity and flexibility.
CSeries wrapping up London City certification
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier (BBD) CSeries did the last flights of a six-month London City Airport certification last week. The CS100, when certified for London City, will more than double the available payload/range out of the airport. In fact, it can reach New York direct with 40 business passengers on-board, something it demonstrated when it left the airport for JFK on the Saturday.
Figure 1. CS100 taking off for a validation flight at London City Airport. Source: Bombardier.
The aircraft was designed for this performance level from the outset. By designing the CSeries with engines and aerodynamics for the larger CS300, the smaller CS100 became a stellar take-off performer, providing short-field capabilities for London City and other urban airports.
Despite the design for London City, it took Bombardier six months to certify CS100 for the airport. We spoke to CSeries VP Rob Dewar about the challenges and the changes needed to the aircraft to meet the demands of London City.
Summary:
- CS100 doubles the payload-range performance out of London City Airport (LCY)
- Validation flights by SWISS pilots in the week confirmed CSeries suitability for LCY. SWISS should know; it has flown the CSeries predecessor (BAE 146) for years into London City.
- The adaptation for the airport has not degraded normal performance. CSeries performance is better than announced and brochure performance will soon see its second upgrade.
- To finish of the validation flights, BBD flew the difficult westward leg London City-New York JFK direct, with a payload representing 40 passengers in business class.
Could an NMA be made good enough?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After showing there exists an NMA (New Midrange Aircraft) gap, the next question follows: Can an aircraft be made for the segment that can carve out a big enough slice to make it a worthwhile effort?
It’s a tough question. Any new aircraft will cost at least $10bn to develop for the airframe alone. To this one shall add the engine development. There exists no suitable engine for such an aircraft. To motivate the investments, the aircraft has to bring a substantial performance improvement compared to existing aircraft. Can it?
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
We go through the key areas that can bring improvements and check if enough progress can is made until an NMA entry into service in 2024 or 2025.
Summary:
- Existing aircraft are either too little or too much aircraft to fill an NMA role.
- By careful design choices, especially for the fuselage, a new aircraft can achieve the required performance.