Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Sunset of the Quads, Part 3
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 20, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of the 747-400 and the A380 on the Los Angeles to Sydney route. We now turn our attention to Airbus’ first long-range aircraft, the A340-300, on a Europe to US West Coast mission.
Summary
- A340 launch and development;
- Competing aircraft;
- Satisfactory commercial success;
- A thin long-haul route.
HOTR: Lease rates, aircraft values continue to plunge/Update
Update: Ishka advises that its starting comparison point in the chart below should have been January, not July. This changes the rate of value and rent decline appreciably.
Aug. 19, 2020, © Leeham News: Aircraft values and least rental rates for selected 5-year old aircraft fell in a six week period, some dramatically.
Ishka, a UK-based appraisal firm, estimates that current market values fell between 9% to 25% in the short period.
The Boeing 777-200LRF value fell the least. Values of the Boeing 777-300ER fell the most.
Airbus A330-300 lease rates dropped a staggering 45% in six weeks, Ishka reports—for a 5-year old aircraft.
No surge in new-build freighters from COVID expected
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Aug. 17, 2020, © Leeham News: Coronavirus caused a spike in freight demand. But don’t look for Airbus or Boeing to see a spike in demand for new build freighters.
Boeing hoped to advance the timeline for the launch of the 777-8F. The original plan for the 777X family was entry-into-service of the -9 in late 2019 or early 2020. The 777-8 passenger model (8P) would follow by two years. The -8F would follow two years after that.
As the -9 EIS slipped to late 2020 and the 737 MAX grounding took its toll, -8 development was suspended. The -8P EIS was unofficially reset to 2024.
Now, the 777-9 EIS is rescheduled to 2022. Production of the 777 line is going to 2/mo. With freight demand spiking due to COVID and widebody passenger production not expected to recover until 2025, Boeing thought advancing the -8F launch could boost the X line.
It’s not to be.
Summary
- Boeing hoped to launch the 777-8F with 2024 EIS.
- No market interest scotched the plan.
- P2F conversions of 777-300ER gain interest.
- Airbus hopes for A330-900F are dashed.
Pontifications: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact
Aug. 17, 2020, © Leeham News: At least half the Airbus A330-900 skyline is with airlines that are in administration, technically insolvent or with a politically sanctioned carrier.
By Scott Hamilton
These could be characterized as in Red Alert.
The COVID-19 crisis places the remaining orders in Yellow Alert.
Airbus, as of its July website tally, has 226 A330-900s in backlog. One hundred fourteen of these, or 50.44%, are in Red Alert.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 4. Hydrogen safety.
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 14, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our series on hydrogen as an energy store for airliners we are closing in on the design problems for a hydrogen-fueled airliner.
One of the aspects we must understand before discussion aircraft solutions are the safety aspects of hydrogen as a fuel in aircraft. Another is the requirements for the storage of liquid hydrogen, LH2.
Figure 1. The Hindenburg disaster at Lakehurst in May 1937. Source: Wikipedia.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 12, 2020, © Leeham News: We deepen our look at the Queen of the Skies and it’s best selling version, the 747-400.
We go through what made it the great aircraft it was and why Qantas replaced it on its trunk routes to the US West coast.
We pick Los Angeles to Sydney as the benchmark route, a route on the range limit for the 747-400, and check how it stacks up economically versus the A380, its replacement.
Summary
- The 747-400 reigned the skies for 15 years, combining a trans-Pacific range with a good passenger and cargo capacity.
- Once Boeing introduced the 777-300ER and Airbus the A380, the 747-400’s ruling of the skies was over. It trailed in both capacity and efficiency.
- It continued in operation until today with many airlines, still a useful aircraft for long and dense routes as long as the fuel prices stayed low.
A lingering shakeup in European skies
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 11, 2020, © Leeham News: There is a shake-up still to come for European airlines.
LNA wrote in early March about the financial vulnerability of several European airlines as the COVID-19 outbreak was intensifying. The article was released before European countries closed their borders, and the US banned inbound travel for non-residents from the old continent.
Fast forward five months, and the airline industry is in its gravest crisis since World War II. After bouncing from the lows in April and May, a passenger traffic recovery remains elusive. Some European countries are re-implementing travel restrictions as new (for now localized) outbreaks emerge.
Despite the unprecedented slump in passenger traffic, Flybe is the only sizable European carrier to have ceased operations since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. Several smaller carriers declared bankruptcies or ceased operations.
LNA analyzes why some carriers went under while others did not, and assesses how various market segments might recover.
Summary
- Numerous airlines too interconnected to fail;
- The worst-case comes true for European regional airlines;
- Some unlikely (relative) winners and losers;
- A treacherous road to recovery.
Boeing’s Renton plant may close from 2033: Analysis
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Introduction
Aug. 10, 2020, © Leeham News: With Boeing likely to consolidate 787 production in Charleston (SC), reflecting a rate of 6/mo, the future of assembly in Puget Sound rears its head again.
LNA outlined Aug. 3 why Everett is the ideal location to assemble the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA).
Boeing’s product line also requires a new airplane in the 100-150 seat sector. Airbus’ A220-100/300 and, nominally, the A320neo (but not the A319neo) fill this sector. (The A320neo was originally designed as a 150-seat airplane. It now is commonly configured in the 150-180 seat size.)
Airbus has a design for an A220-500, which could replace the A320.
Boeing’s Renton (WA) 737/757 plant footprint in 1990. Source: Google Earth.
Boeing needs an efficient competitor to the current A220 plus a replacement for the 737-7 and, eventually, the -8.
And it probably won’t be assembled at the Boeing 737 plant in Renton.
Summary
- Boeing-Embraer JV was to focus on 100-150 seat airplane.
- Canceled deal could be revived.
- Or Boeing could choose a new partner.
- Moonshot would be two roughly concurrent new airplane programs.
Pontifications: No, it’s not time to fly
Aug. 10, 2020, © Leeham News: Frontier Airlines’ CEO Barry Biffle says “it’s time to fly,” reports The Points Guy.
By Scott Hamilton
Well, good luck with that.
Air fares are ridiculously cheap. Some airlines in the US continue to block middle seats and now require passengers to wear masks throughout the flight. Extra efforts are made to clean the airplanes. (Southwest Airlines, in a truly bizarre move, ceased cleaning seat belts and arm rests between flights—two things passengers are guaranteed to touch.)
Travel count in in the US is now up to about 800,000 passengers a day. This compares with nearly 3m a day pre-COVID.
I wrote July 6 why I won’t be flying any time soon. I wasn’t concerned about the airplane experience (except for those passengers who refused to wear masks). I was concerned about the experience getting to, from and at the airports and at hotels.
Now, there’s another reason why it’s not time to fly.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 3. Application space.
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 7, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our series on Hydrogen as an energy store for airliners we now look at the emission targets one is chasing and then discuss for what type of airliner does a hydrogen propulsion system make sense.
The CO2 emission target as expressed by Air Transport Target Group (ATAG) is shown in Figure 1. The graph is from the EU report on Hydrogen Powered Aviation.
Figure 1. The development of CO2 from aviation and the ATAG 2050 target. Source: EU Hydrogen Powered Aviation report.