Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Why e in ePlane shall stand for environment, Part 2. Fly shorter routes.
December 20, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We continue our series why e in ePlane shall stand for environment and not electric.
If our target is to lower the environmental footprint from air transport we must have a target that focuses just that, lowering the CO2 load from our airliners. Electric or Hybrid-electric aircraft are not the most efficient way to achieve this. There are better ways to this target.
Figure 1. A FlightRadar24 picture of our daily airline routes. Source: FR24.
Why did Qantas choose Airbus’ A350-1000 for project Sunrise?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 19, 2019, © Leeham News: Qantas Airways declared the Airbus A350-1000 the winner for its project Sunrise last week. After two years of competition with Boeing’s 777-8, it was the preferred aircraft for what many say is the holy grail of airline routes, the Sydney-London route.
Many speculate it’s the delay in the availability of the 777-8 that was the deciding factor. We use our airliner performance model to check if this is true or if there are other factors that turned the A350-1000 the favorite.
A350-1000 chosen for project Sunrise. Source: Qantas.
Summary:
- The A350-1000 is a stretch from the A350-900 while the 777-8 is a shrink from the larger 777-9.
- A derivative based on a stretch is often more efficient than one based on a shrink.
- When Airbus adjusts the Maximum Take-Off Weight and fuel capacity of the A350-1000, it can fly the routes Qantas asks for.
Minimum 3-6 month 737 MAX production shutdown seen
By Scott HamiltonDec. 17, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing announced yesterday a suspension in production of the 737 MAX line. It didn’t put a timetable to the shutdown.
But one aerospace analyst predicts the shutdown will be a minimum of three to six months.
The reason? Boeing listed as its new priority, after recertifying the airplane, as clearing out the inventory of 400 stored new-production aircraft.
- LNA was the first outlet to raise the prospect that Boeing was nearing a decision point on whether to reduce or suspend production. The post has two graphics: one shows where the MAXes are stored and the other shows deliveries vs production.
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey made the prediction in a note issued after Boeing’s after-market announcement yesterday.
Analysts align in reaction to MAX production suspension
Dec. 17, 2019, © Leeham News: Wall Street analysts were fairly aligned in their reaction to Boeing’s decision to suspend production.
Below are excerpt of some of the research notes received by LNA:
Boeing halts 737 production
Dec. 16, 2016: Boeing said it is suspending 737 MAX production.
Here is the full press release.
Are AirAsia and AirAsia X outgrowing their key markets?
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
Dec. 16, 2019, © Leeham News: AirAsia and long-haul sister AirAsia X have been growing at world-leading rates for much of the past two decades. AirAsia’s fleet growth in the 2000s was so rapid that it quickly became a top customer of Airbus’s A320 program; the airline is now second only to India’s IndiGo as an A320neo customer.
However, neither of the airlines nor their joint venture partners across Asia are producing solid financial returns–making it questionable whether they can economically fly all the aircraft they have on order.
Summary
- Mediocre financial results after lease expenses;
- Debt loads are above industry average, especially at AirAsia X;
- One of the world’s largest order books, especially for A320neos;
- Key bases in countries where capacity growth outstrips local economic trends.
Boeing hiring for key mechanic roles even as production cuts rumored
By BRYAN CORLISS
Dec. 16, 2019, © Leeham News — Even as Boeing’s board of directors met this weekend to discuss a potential 737 MAX production reduction or freeze, the company has continued to hire workers it will need desperately once it finally gets the go-ahead to resume deliveries of the grounded jet.
So far this month, Boeing hired more than 250 new mechanics at its Puget Sound plants. Insiders also tell LNA managers are talking to their recent retirees–among others- about coming back to work.
This is extremely unusual for Boeing. Historically, hiring at the company all but dries up after Thanksgiving, largely because of a provision in its contract with its union touch-labor workers that makes December a lucrative month to be a Machinist–but an expensive month for Boeing.
Two factors could be driving the hiring: a need to quickly install mandated updates on nearly 800 grounded MAXes once the grounding is lifted, and a long-term global shortage of exactly the kinds of workers who have the necessary skills to do those jobs.
- No end in sight for MAX grounding;
- December hiring unusual at Boeing;
- Boeing may need to lock down certain mechanics now;
- Last 777X bonus.
Pontifications: MAX RTS, Emirates 777X order, Suspending 737 production, more
By Scott Hamilton
Editor’s Note: News reports Sunday indicated Boeing is considering reducing or suspending production of the 737 MAX. LNA reported this possibility Dec. 11.
While Sunday’s reports suggest Boeing will halt production, LNA is told a rate cut to between 10-20 airplanes a month is also possible in order to minimize impact to the supply chain.
Dec. 16, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time for catching up on a variety of topics.
Topics this week:
- 737 MAX Return to Service.
- Emirates Airline 777X order reduction.
- Suspending or reducing 737 production—it’s not the first time.
- E175-E2 first flight.
- Airbus wins Project Sunrise.
Bjorn’s Corner: Why e in ePlane shall stand for environment. Part 1. Hype versus reality.
December 13, 2019, ©. Leeham News: The first all-electric commercial aircraft, a Harbor Air DHC-2 Beaver, flew over the Fraser River near Vancouver in the week (Figure 1). It was powered by a magniX electric engine fed with energy from batteries.
Despite this progress, this Corner series is about why the e in our future ePlanes should stand for environment and not electric.
Figure 1. Harbour Air seaplane flying with a magniX electric engine feed by batteries. Source: magniX.
Norwegian’s attempt to survive
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Dec. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS), struggling to survive after years of over-expansion, took major steps over the last few weeks to overhaul its finances and strategy.
Major strategic shifts included the sale of the Argentinian subsidiary, the end of trans-Atlantic narrowbody operations, and exit out of long-haul markets in two Scandinavian capitals.
The airline appointed Jacob Shram, a former McKinsey consultant and Statoil executive, as a new CEO. Former JetBlue Chief Commercial Officer Marty St. George is also joining the airline on an interim basis.
After years of breakneck expansion, the airline vowed a shift in focus on profitability and business efficiency. In this article, LNA analyzes the various announcements and assesses whether NAS has a chance to survive in the long term.
Summary
- (Finally) cutting the losses;
- No stones left unturned to raise cash;
- Drastically altered fleet plans;
- Chances of working out.