Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
Pontifications: Which airplanes are revolutionary or evolutionary?
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Last week’s column about the revolutionary Boeing 747 prompted some Twitter interaction asking what other commercial airplanes might be considered “revolutionary.”
I have my views. Let’s ask readers.
There are also three polls below the jump in addition to the usual comment section. Polling is open for one week.
Bjorn’s Corner: Pitch stability, Part 10. Wrap up.
Feb. 15, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We now summarize the problems around an airliner’s pitch stability and why a good pitch stability is so important before we go to the next subject, yaw stability.
The pitch stability and how it works in different parts of the flight envelope is the trickiest of the aircraft’s stability problems around its three axes; Pitch, Yaw and Roll. Here is why.
Figure 1. A thought pitch moment curve for Boeing’s 737 MAX. Source: Leeham Co.
A380 launch aid in limbo at WTO, member states following program termination
Feb. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: Termination of the A380 program leaves unanswered Airbus’ obligation of outstanding launch aid from France and Germany.
But apparently it removes any overhang of this aid in the long running trade dispute between
the US and Europe (Boeing vs Airbus) at the World Trade Organization.
As the dispute wound its way through the WTO since the US filed its complaint nearly 15 years ago, the only surviving issues were subsidies for the A380 and A350.
Based on precedent involving termination of the A340 program, in which the WTO ruled there was no further harm to Boeing once the last A340 was delivered, the remaining launch aid was rendered moot in the context of the WTO. The governments wound up eating the balance of the launch aid.
Read more
Airbus’ 2018 results conference: Enders hands Faury a clean deck
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 14, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Airbus announced its 2018 results today at a press conference in Toulouse. It was the last Yearly press conference for Airbus CEO Tom Enders and CFO Harald Wilhelm. Both leave the company in the coming months.
The press conference was colored by the CEO hand over to Guillaume Faury but also the winding up of the A380 program, a problem Enders didn’t want his successor to inherit. The gone year delivered overall results as guided a year ago despite closures charges for A380 and further provisions for A400M.
Launching the NMA could mean new business model for Boeing
By Dan Catchpole
Feb. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: Commercial aerospace’s super cycle is alive and well—and looks to keep going through the foreseeable future. Major suppliers and OEMs, and industry analysts at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance annual conference are all optimistic about the industry demand. Analysts noted potential concerns, such as a trade war with China, a catastrophic terrorist attack, or an economic shock. However, even the often bubble-bursting Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst and vice president at the Teal Group, said the party likely will keep rolling on for several years more.
Amid such a sunny forecast, Boeing is weighing whether to overhaul its commercial aerospace business model, said Kevin Michaels, a co-founder of AeroDynamic Advisory.
The company is working to close the business case on a new midmarket airplane (NMA), already dubbed the 797 by industry watchers. The NMA—or, if Boeing does not launch it, then its next single aisle airplane—likely will usher in “the next evolution of the jetliner business model,” Michaels said.
The new model, he said, has four key aspects:
- Greater vertical integration and in-sourcing work;
- Targeted, yet aggressive expansion of services;
- Redefining supplier relationships to capture more aftermarket revenue; and
- Introducing model-based systems engineering.
A simple solution to congested skies
By Dan Catchpole
Danieljcatchpole[at]gmail[dot]com
Subscription Required
Introduction
Feb. 14, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Flight delays cost the airline industry
Traffic back ups are increasing–so much so that Airbus has invested in improving air traffic management to avoid congestion affecting aircraft sales.
billions of dollars each year. They cause travelers untold aggravation and inconvenience every day. And the main culprit—air traffic congestion—is only going to get worse as Boeing and Airbus deliver tens of thousands of jetliners over the next couple decades.
Regulators, lawmakers and the aviation industry in the United States have settled on spending billions of taxpayer dollars on NextGen—after having already spent billions—to implement complex technical solutions to keep the skies safe and cut down on flight delays.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) estimated in 2017 that implementing NextGen will cost roughly $35.7 billion by 2030–$20.6 billion from the FAA and another $15.1 billion from the aviation industry.
NextGen has moved with the swiftness of a sprawling, technocratic federal program—that is to say like an elephant at the ballet. It has endured delays and cost escalation, though these have not been crippling. However, it is years away from unclogging America’s congested air spaces.
Moreover, there are very real questions as to whether NextGen will be able to deliver all the FAA promises it can.
Summary
- Air spaces are getting more crowded, leading to greater flight delays.
- Airbus is concerned that congestion could hurt demand for jetliners, and is taking steps to improve air traffic flow.
- Substantial questions exist as to NextGen’s ability to unclog air traffic congestion.
- Taking a system-wide approach that taps into airlines’ desire to maximize profits could be implemented now, say proponents.
Airbus ends the A380 program
Feb. 13, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus announced today (Seattle time, Feb. 14 in 
Toulouse) that it is terminating the A380 program.
The last airplane will roll off the assembly line in 2021, for Emirates Airlines.
Emirates cancelled an order for 39 A380s. In its place, the carrier ordered 30 A350s and 40 A330neos.
The Emirates and Airbus press release is here.
Read more
A380 program termination expected tomorrow
Feb. 13, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus is expected to announce tomorrow the termination of the A380 program, a move that had been rumored for weeks.
Tomorrow is Airbus’ annual press conference for 2018 results. Its Board of Directors meets today.
Word emerged last month that Emirates Airline was considering cancelling its 2017 order for the giant airplane, swapping the 20 (plus 17 options) for the A350 or the A330neo.
Last week, Qantas Airways, as long expected, canceled its remaining order for eight A380s. This week, Qatar Airways said it will begin retiring its A380s when the first reaches age 10.
Boeing expects another banner year for customers
By Dan Catchpole
Danieljcatchpole[at]gmail[dot]com
Feb. 13, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing Commercial Airplanes expects another banner year in 2019, Randy Tinseth, BCA vice president of marketing, said Tuesday at the PNAA conference.
The airplane maker expects its customers to make about $36 billion in profit this year, he said. That would make five consecutive years of BCA customers recording more than $30 billion in profits.
Tinseth declined to comment on the company’s decision to delay possibly launching the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) to 2020. However, as Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg noted during the Jan. 30 earnings call, Boeing likely will seek authority to offer this year from its board of directors.
He did say he was surprised to hear so many people already referring to it as the 797.
“I can tell you one thing—that has not been discussed,” Tinseth said.
Supplier consolidation leading to unionization at some
By Bryan Corliss
Feb. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: While Boeing is enjoying “labor peace” in its Northwest facilities, a couple of aerospace industry suppliers are in the midst of contract negotiations with the largest union representing aerospace industry workers in the region.
At one of the new Collins Aerospace plants in Everett, those talks are contentious. Workers there staged a one-day walk-out on Jan. 17 after (according to union 
officials) Collins representatives refused to bargain with them.
The workers were back on the job the next day. However, the union representing them – International Association of Machinists District 751–filed a stack of Unfair Labor Practice complaints with the National Labor Relations Board’s Seattle office, accusing the company of, among other things, bad-faith bargaining.
Since the January walk-out, the two sides continued talks with the help of a federal mediator.
“The workers who generate the profits should share in the prosperity we create,” said Joshua Whitcomb, a mechanic at the landing gear shop, in a statement provided by the union. “This is very skilled labor, and not just anyone can perform our work.”
For its part, a Collins spokesperson in Iowa gave LNA a statement saying the company is “committed to continue negotiating with the union in good faith, and hopes to reach a mutually beneficial agreement.”