Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
Pontifications: “Sully” sullies NTSB
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 12, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Sully, the movie about the miracle of the successful water landing of US Airways 1549 on the Hudson River in New York City, sullies the National Transportation Safety Board.
Apparently not content with the gripping drama of the flight’s emergency itself and the dramatic rescue of all 155 souls on board, the movie gins up an NTSB out to hang Capt. Chesley Sullenberger (Sully) and co-pilot Jeffrey Skiles.
Bjorn’s Corner: East bloc aeronautical industries
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 09, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The Western world civil aeronautical industry developed a number of new aircraft (Boeing 787, Airbus A350, Bombardier CSeries, Mitsubishi’s MRJ) or aircraft variants (A320neo, 737 MAX, A330neo, Embraer’s E-Jet E2) during the last 15 years. The last of these projects (A330neo) is entering flight tests within six months.
Figure 1. The MC-21 project is reviving the Russian aeronautical industry. Source: UAC.
Over the next 10 years there will be few new Western hemisphere aircraft projects. But there will be action in the east, in Russia and China. We therefore will cover these projects in more and more articles.
To give a background to these articles, I will spend some Corners to describe some of the differences between the Western and Eastern aeronautical industry. A lot of these differences will come from the industry’s history. We will start with Russia’s airframe industry. Read more
Book review: Glory Lost and Found
Sept. 8, 2016: Glory Lost and Found: How Delta Climbed from Despair to Dominance in the Post-9/11 Era is a ponderous title for a ponderous book.
But this is not a criticism.
Glory Lost is one of the best books I’ve ever read about the turmoil in the airline industry. Authors Seth Kaplan and Jay Shabat, two journalists, put together a book of nearly 450 pages that goes beyond just the focus of how Delta Air Lines spiraled into bankruptcy following 9/11, emerged and suffered through more travails after the 2008 financial market meltdown.
Russian-Chinese wide-body; The aircraft Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 08, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having covered the possibilities of reusing parts of the Il-96 fuselage for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s now time to look at the existing IL-96 wing and how far this is from a modern design.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The intent is not to propose that the existing wing is reused but rather to check the technology level against western designs and how big a leap it will be for the partners to make a modern high performance wing for the aircraft.
Summary:
- The IL-96 wing is roughly on the technological level of the Airbus A340-300 wing with a bit lower aspect ratio.
- The dimensions are close to what is needed for the new wide-body but sweep and aspect ratio needs to be changed for a new wing.
- A wing for a 2025 long range wide-body also need a more modern construction technology than classical aluminum alloys.
Weekly analysts report: Reaction to CSeries delivery delays
Bombardier CSeries: new delivery delays, but this time not BBD’s fault. Photo via Google images.
Sept. 7, 2016: The news that Bombardier is halving its projected deliveries of the CSeries this year because of engine delays from Pratt & Whitney drew commentary from a couple of the analysts whose reports LNC receives.
- Cutting the anticipated deliveries for the Bombardier CSeries was not a surprise to Credit Suisse, but the reason (PW GTF delays) was.
- Goldman Sachs pretty much yawned at BBD’s news.
- Bernstein Research takes another of its periodic looks at the Airbus v Boeing competition, this time for narrow-bodies.
- The sale of CIT Aerospace, one of the world’s largest lessors (and with sizeable orders from Airbus and Boeing), will likely go to a Chinese firm, predicts FBR & Co.. FBR focuses on the lessor industry.
44% supplier shortfall for GTF now showing impact
Sept. 6, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It was a stunning admission, one that produced the biggest headlines at the United Technologies media days in June: 44% of the suppliers on Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan engine weren’t performing to the UTC/PW standards.
The impact of this was seen today when Bombardier announced it will deliver only half the anticipated 15 C Series this year because of engine delivery issues by PW for the GTF powering the new airplane.
Bombardier and PW pointed the finger at its supply chain for the delays in delivering engines.
Pontifications: Odds and Ends to end the summer
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: August was unusually slow, so today is sort of an Odds and Ends clean-up of the summer.
There was the Southwest Airlines engine incident and the reports that ANA’s Boeing 787s have engine issues, but I wrote about these last week.
Today, the Odds and Ends include more on the Mitsubishi MRJ; Airbus deliveries; sales campaigns and other stuff.
New value Guide: A look at A320, 737
Subscription Required
Introduction
Sept. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The semi-annual update to The Guide, from appraiser Aviation Specialists of Herndon (VA), indicates Airbus and Boeing single-aisle aircraft remain hotly competitive in current market values and future residual values.
The Guide covers all in-production jets from Airbus, Boeing (including McDonnell Douglas), Bombardier and Embraer, plus their out-of-production airplanes. Passenger and freighters, including some P2F conversions, are included. BBD’s CS300 is included, although it doesn’t enter service for another few months.
The Guide is a for-purchase product.
Summary
- The A321ceo, sans sharklets, has a higher current market value than its competitor, the 737-900ER. It also has higher residual value forecast based on the higher Current Market Value starting point, but as a percentage of the starting point, the two airplanes are the same.
- The 737-800W has a better CMV and as a result a better residual value forecast. But it also has a fractionally higher RV as a percentage of the starting point.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aeronautical greats
By Bjorn Fehrm
September02, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: One of our aeronautical greats, Joe Sutter, left us this week. He’s one of the characters in aeronautics that I admire for his capability to find what is the right thing to do, take the tough decision and fight it through.
Figure 1. Early concepts for Boeing 747. Source: Goggle images.
Sutter was the chief engineer for the Boeing 747 project that found that the original idea of stacking two 707s on top of each other, Figure 1, was wrong and instead took the long route to explain what was the right way to go, dual aisle and 10 abreast. Read more
Southwest pilot contract good news for Boeing
Sept. 1, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The lucrative labor contract agreement for Southwest Airlines pilots agreed this week is good news for Boeing.
Why?
Because under the previous contract, Southwest pilots—who had been in negotiations with management for about four years—claimed they didn’t have to fly the new
Boeing 737-7 MAX. Southwest Airlines is the launch operator of the 737-8 MAX. Boeing photo via Google images.
737 MAX. The terms limited the number of types of 737s that could be flown, they claimed.
Management took a different view, but the issue was serious enough that WN accelerated retiring 737 Classics in part because of this issue. Retire the Classics, and a fleet type is eliminated, paving the way to accept and operate the MAX.