Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Odds and Ends: MH370 tracking; Garuda rules out A380, 747-8; last 747-400 flight; E-Jet vs Turbo-props
MH370 tracking: With Britain’s Immarsat and the Air Accident Investigation Board key to determining the general location of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370, The London Telegraph has one of the best narratives of of the behind-the-scenes story of how this came about. The London Independent also has a good story. And here is a story that explains the difficulties of searching in remote oceans.
- Update, 10:30am PDT: Aviation analyst and former pilot John Nance is profiled in this Puget Sound Business Journal account that includes’ Nance’s theory of MH370. It’s an intriguing theory. He believes this was a deliberate act–either terrorism or murder-suicide–and that once the flight settled out southbound from Malaysia, it was set on auto-pilot and all aboard, including the pilot, were killed by asphyxiation. The airplane flew until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the Indian Ocean; he even gives a speed and angle-of-attack estimate.
Garuda rules out A380, 747-8: The Australian reports that after planning to order either the Airbus A380 or Boeing 747-8 last year, officials have ruled this out.
Last 747-400 flight: Japan’s All Nippon Airlines plans to complete its last Boeing 747-400 flight this month, ending an iconic era in the country where 747s once ruled the skies.
E-Jet vs Turbo-Props: At the ISTAT conference last week, we reported that Embraer says its E-175 E2 is more efficient than similarly sized turbo props on missions of more than 250 miles. This story in The Economic Times of India follows through on this theme.
Caution on recovering data from MH370 FDR, CVR
With the news that the Malaysian authorities announced that Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 ended in the Southern Indian Ocean, and the US Navy is sending a “pinger locator” there to look for the black boxes, we need to raise some caution about assumptions that these will reveal all there is to know about what happened on the flight.
The flight data recorder (FDR) and cockpit voice recorder (CVR) are located in the rear of the airplane, inaccessible to the cockpit or cabin, a Boeing 777 instructor tells us. Unlike the Boeing 737 in which a rogue pilot turned off these devices before plunging the airplane in a suicide dive, the 777’s FDR and CVR power controls are only accessible in the electronics bay and the access is through a floor panel outside the cockpit, in the cabin of the aircraft.
Assuming the FDR and CVR, therefore, were operational right up until the time of the crash of the airplane, there should be data recoverable if these units are eventually found. The FDR, being digital, has a 24 hour capacity and should provide a wealth of information. The CVR has only a two hour capacity and may yield much less, however. Clearly, it won’t reveal anything that happened over the Gulf of Thailand—this will have been overwritten by the end of MH370. But whether there is anything to be revealed on the last two hours for the flight is going to be uncertain.
In the US, by law the cockpit conversations recordings are only in 30 minute increments-the most recent 30 minutes. If this practice is true for other countries, including Malaysia, anything said in the cockpit as to what transpired when the plane originally was “lost” while still over the Gulf of Thailand will be lost to history. But the final 30 minutes of cockpit conversation, and any noise from the cabin within “earshot” of the cockpit microphones, should be retained on the CVR. But also in the US, pilots have the ability to erase the CVR once at the gate—and it’s certainly possible this occurred before MH370 went into the ocean.
Given the success, albeit two years after the crash, investigators had in recovering the FDR and CVR of Air France Flight 447 (the one that crashed into the South Atlantic in 2009, with main wreck recovered from around 12,000 ft), we feel reasonably confident MH370 will eventually be found and the recorders recovered. But manage your expectations about what might be found on the recorders.
Why we think a fire on MH370 is unlikely; 777 has lots of smoke/fire detection to give ample warning; hypoxia theory
One of the early theories about the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 has been the prospect of a fire in the electronics bay, or elsewhere in the airplane, that led pilots to begin pulling circuit breakers to isolate the fire. This theory continues that the transponders and radio communications, including ACARS, systematically failed as a result of the fire.
This scenario, while it can’t be totally ruled out, is unlikely, in our view.
The best example of this scenario is Swissair Flight 111, a McDonnell Douglas MD-11, that crashed off Nova Scotia in 1998. Shortly after takeoff from New York for Geneva, Switzerland, the pilots smelled smoke and smoke eventually began to emerge in the cockpit. However, the pilots radioed Air Traffic Control of the situation and began to divert to Halifax. It is true they began to pull circuit breakers, per procedure, to isolate the problem. However, even as it got worse, the pilots radioed updates and the decision to dump fuel prior to an emergency landing. Thus, this fire scenario hypothesized for MH370 breaks down. Tragically, Swissair 111 crashed as the fire went out of control. This is an important point that will be addressed below.
Associated with the theory that a fire somehow led to hypoxia is another of which we’re skeptical. This would require a hull breach and the failure warning equipment to alert the crew.
Odds and Ends: Change in Boeing’s supply chain management; the Ukraine; Bearish mood toward cargo P2F
Boeing supply chain: Stan Deal, VP and GM of Boeing Commercial’s Supply Chain management, has been appointed to SVP of Boeing Commercial Aviation Service, replacing Lou Mancini, who is retiring.
Boeing CAS serves customers with aircraft maintenance issues, aircraft-on-ground (AOG) situation and it was the entity that fanned out across the globe to install the battery fixes following the grounding of the 787 fleet. CAS is a significant revenue and profit contributor to Boeing’s bottom line.
The Ukraine: The turmoil in the Ukraine has ripple effects in aerospace. Bombardier, which last year signed an agreement (yet to be firmed up) to sell 100 Q400s to Russia and establish an assembly line there, has seen talks to conclude the deal slow. At the ISTAT conference this week, we were asked if we thought Airbus, Boeing and other OEMs would see sales of titanium slow; Russia is the largest supplier. (Our opinion was probably not, but with Russia, who knows?)
Bearish cargo market: Despite a slight uptick in cargo traffic in January and February, according to data compiled by IATA, the mood toward cargo airplane conversions was decidedly bearish at the ISTAT conference.
While single-aisle P2F conversions are holding up, widebody P2F conversions and new-build main deck sales remain anemic at best. Increasing reliance on the belly capacity of the Boeing 777-300ER, Airbus A330-300 and Boeing 787 cuts demand for dedicated freighters.
MH370 search off Australia: exercise caution; images could be “sea junk”
The search for Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 has shifted to about 1,500 miles west of Australia following the discovery of something in the waters there by satellite images.
One of the objects is about 80 feet long. As with the images released by China of objects in the Gulf of Thailand of roughly the same size, the idea that something 80 feet long seems to us to be too heavy to float. Except in this case, we think if could be possible. Here’s why.
In the Gulf of Thailand, this would have been with an hour or so after take off–a plane still laden with fuel. In Australia, the plane would have been at the point of having used up all its fuel. Therefore, we think it possible a wing separated from the airplane upon impact with the water might remain afloat.
See this video of the impact of the Ethiopian Boeing 767. This was in shallow water, but there is a split second midway through the video where it appears one wing is floating on the water (this is different from the image at the end, where it seems a wing is resting on the bottom).
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WE2Yn0cipTY]
Having said all that, we urge caution in leaping to conclusions that whatever the Australian images saw, this area of the ocean is, by news accounts, replete with “sea junk.”
No stress on the order backlog, says Airbus at ISTAT
Airbus doesn’t see any “stress” in its aircraft order backlog, or “skyline,” says Andrew Shankland, senior vice president of leasing markets from the European manufacturer.
Shankland spoke with us at the annual meeting of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading, held Monday and Tuesday this week in San Diego.
Persistent concerns are expressed about an “order bubble,” including during the ISTAT conference. Shankland told us in an interview that “we don’t see any stress; we meet every two weeks” in a process Airbus calls its “watch tower” (Boeing calls its process the “war room”).
“As long as we can move things around, and we have a pretty rigorous process to be sure every plane has a home,” Airbus doesn’t see any issue with its skyline, Shankland said.
Steven Udvar-Hazy, CEO of lessor Air Lease Corp, sees Asia as a high risk region where huge orders have been placed by carriers such as AirAsia and Lion Air, both big A320 customers. AirAsia just announced deferral of 19 A320s this year and next. AirAsiaX also has large orders for the A330 and A350, recently deferring some A330s “until the time is right.” Shankland wouldn’t discuss any individual customer, and only generally noted that Airbus and Boeing have successfully “manipulated” the skyline in the past when deferrals or even cancellations occur.
Shankland isn’t involved in Airbus’ analysis of whether to proceed with the prospective A330neo, but acknowledged that the business case for the airplane “remains to be seen.”
Public pressure mounts on Airbus to launch A330neo
Public pressure is building on Airbus to launch a re-engining of its A330 medium-sector, twin-aisle, aging airplane as CIT Aerospace and Air Lease Corp. officials joined Delta Air Lines and AirAsia in their previous overt calls for development of an A330neo. Lufthansa Airlines is understood to be seeking a neo behind the scenes.
GE Aviation and Rolls-Royce are encouraging Airbus to proceed with a neo as a platform for their GEnx and Trent 1000 TEN engines. The GEnx is used on the Boeing 747-8 and the 787; the Trent 1000 TEN is used on the 787.
MH370, Day 12: 10 theories, courtesy of BBC
To no surprise, we’re still wondering where Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 is.
The BBC has an excellent review of 10 theories about the flight’s mysterious disappearance, which beat us to it; we had planned to take this approach now that we’re done with the ISTAT conference.
One theory that recently surfaced is the fire-in-the-cargo-hold, destroying all communications. We point out once more that there are five radios on the plane plus two transponders. The last cargo hold fire we can remember was the ValuJet DC-9 accident on May 11, 1996. But these pilots had time to radio before being overcome by smoke. Despite plunging nose first into the Miami Everglades, there was still some debris–small though it was. We discount this theory.
The more telling bizarre twist is the revelation that Thailand military had detected an unidentified blip but waited 10 days to present the information–because it hadn’t been asked.
One would have thought that someone might have taken the initiative to volunteer this information before being asked.
The Thai and Malaysian militaries need to hold joint maneuvers in incompetence.
Lessors analyze market conditions in commercial aviation at ISTAT
The final presentation at ISTAT was the popular lessors’ panel, a free-wheeling discussion of commercial aviation issues. The reporting summarizes and paraphrases the comments.
The moderator is Jeff Knittel, president of CIT Aerospace.
The lessors are:
Angus Kelly, CEO of AerCap
Mark Lapidus, CEO of Amedeo
Norman Liu, CEO of GECAS
Raymond Sisson, CEO of AWAS
Steven Udvar-Hazy, CEO of Air Lease Corp
Knittle: when we were sitting here 10-15 years ago, the six lessors sitting here would largely represent the leasing industry. Now there are 20 or so in China, more elsewhere. The market is fragmentized.
Hazy: The newcomers don’t have the relationships or experience in buying in bulk even though they are capitalized but they have a long way to go.
Lapidus (a new lessor) says people are learning pretty quickly how to do business. (Amedeo is the former Doric Leasing, which finances Airbus A380s.)
Kelly: Although the names on the door have changed, the people running them really haven’t changed. New capital is coming in because there is greater return on capital than in other areas. They want to come in because they see this attraction but they want to do so on a smaller basis. The number of true global lessors hasn’t changed all that much.