Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Next new, clean sheet airplane around 2030, says Airbus
Airbus currently is planning for the next new, clean sheet airplane around 2030 and now are focusing on incremental improvements to the existing product lines, officials said at the Innovations Days annual media briefing last week in Toulouse.
Fabrice Bregier, CEO of the Airbus commercial aircraft unit, said that “innovation is on a case3-by-case basis,” with a successor to the A320 family requiring an engine “with great benefit.” He did not define this, but previously Airbus indicated a successor needs a combined 30% airframe/engine improvement to make an entirely new airplane design worthwhile.
Airbus Innovation Days, Part 5: wide body twin development
Kiran Rao, executive vice president, strategy and marketing.
Rao discussed the wide-body strategy for Airbus at Innovation Days on Wednesday. The following paraphrasing synopsizes his remarks.
- More than 3,500 wide bodies have been sold by Airbus, starting with the A300B2, the first wide0body twin.
- 1,200 wide-bodies are in backlog. A330: 250-300 seats; A350: 280-370 seats; A380 more than 500 seats (two-class, long range layout).
- Airbus officials, including Rao, continued to promote the company’s 18-inch seat campaign, comparing the A-Series against the Boeing 777/787 17-inch 10 abreast and nine abreast respectively.
- Boeing has to go 10 abreast with the 777 “because the economics don’t work at nine abreast.” Boeing had to go with nine abreast on the 787 rather than eight abreast because the “economics don’t work” compared with the A330 otherwise.
- Economics is the “most important criteria” and the “Airbus aircraft come out ahead.”
- Rao claims the A330 has lower maintenance costs, lower airport, lower navigation and lower capital costs. The A330 has simpler systems so costs less to maintain, particularly on the engines. The A330-300 is slightly lighter than the 787-9.
- For the first time we’ve heard, an Airbus official referred to the “A330ceo.”
- Each seat for a long-haul operator is worth $2m per year, so an A350-900 vs a 787-9 with 35 more seats can generate $70m more revenue per year.
- The A350-1000 has a 15% COC per trip and a 5% COC per seat advantage, Rao says. Assumptions: 4,000nm, $3/gal, 2 class configuration, 369 seats for A350, 405 seats for 777-9.
- 777-9X is inefficient without the stretch and a longer wing. It has inferior comfort, Rao says.
Airbus Innovation Days, Part 4: A330neo announcement at Farnborough not a sure bet; CEO questions market forecast
- Bregier sees hundreds, not 1,100-1,200, market potential for A330neo–perhaps not enough to justify program.
- A330neo needs to match operating cost of 787-8, officials say.
- New engines will up maintenance costs.
Airbus officials say they are still evaluating whether to proceed with the A330neo, and that an announcement at the Farnborough Air Show next month is not a given.
John Leahy, COO-Customers, ticked off the considerations during the Airbus Innovation Days this week in Toulouse. These are corporate and strategic issues. A more tactical issue is what impact re-engining will have on maintenance costs, says Kiran Rao, EVP of Strategy and Marketing.
In his presentation, Rao said that the A330ceo has lower maintenance costs than the Boeing 787 (something Boeing would likely dispute), with engine maintenance costs being a notable factor.
In a sidebar press scrum after his presentation, we asked Rao about this. If the neo is equipped with either (or both) the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 TEN or GE Aviation GEnx, or derivatives, what would the impact be on the claim of maintenance cost advantage?
Airbus Innovation Days, Part 3: the A320neo
Klaus Roewe, SVP of the A320neo Family:
There are 2,700 A320neos in the backlog. Roewe provided a program update during the Airbus Innovation Days. Here is a paraphrased synopsis.
- The first flight remains on target for 3Q2014. Final assembly began in the spring.
- No further modification will be required to meet the target of 15% fuel burn improvement.
- The GTF has been delivered to Toulouse; the LEAP-1A is in testing at the CFM factory.
- Production rate is shown at 46/mo from mid-2016 through 2019. We are investigating rate 50 and above.
- Within the supply chain, the first NEO components are 70% better than target. More than 2,000 lessons learned from the A380 and A350 are incorporated into the NEO program. We are already testing control laws for the neo, a lesson learned from previous programs.
- Airbus has discussed with regulators to determine that evacuation of the A320 for up to 200 passengers is possible but a configuration of 189 passengers is more feasible.
- Maximum capacity A321neo (240 pax) reduces per-seat fuel cost by 6%.
- Slim line seats at 28 inches feels like 30 inch seat pitch.
- A321neo could carry 25 more passengers on a 2,500nm route departing Phoenix or Las Vegas, two hot airports that were challenging for the A321ceo (based on the CFM56 engine).
- We are “well below” weight targets.
- Meeting 95% commonality target.
- There has been an increase of airlines configuring the A321 with more than 200 seats from 5% to 40%, which drove the larger-capacity design of the A321neo.
- Flap extension will go up from 27 degrees to 34 degrees, and some changes to spoilers will be incorporated into the neo.
Airbus Innovation Days: A350 Media Test Flight Review
The 150 members of the media received an hour-long ride on A350-900 MSN002 (the “carbon fiber” liveried test plane in the Airbus fleet), a rare event.
Media at the Airbus Innovation Days flew on this, MSN002, for a 60 minute flight.
Entry into the airplane gave a clean, spacious impression, though the Boeing 787 Sky Interior is more visually impressive. The A350, like the 787, has mood lighting.
Airbus Innovation Days, Part 2: No order bubble and a lot more
Airbus lifted the embargo on John Leahy’s presentation, allowing immediate publication.
There is no aircraft order bubble, says John Leahy, COO-Customers of Airbus. Emerging markets and passenger traffic doubling every 15 years, bolstered by GDP growth, means orders will hold up, he said, leading off the Airbus Innovation Days Tuesday.
Highlights of Leahy’s address:
- There are 42 mega cities accounting for 99% of the long-haul traffic. Aircraft size is moving up and in 15 years, Leahy says RPKs will double, requiring aircraft like the A380.
- Leahy predicted the A320neo will maintain a greater market share than the Boeing 737 MAX of about 60%-40%.
- He claims the A320neo is 1.6 tons lighter than the 737 MAX.
- Leahy said the A320neo and A321neo now seat 189 and 240 seats respectively (in maximum capacity configuration). The former matches the 737 MAX and the latter has 25 more seats than the 737-9.
- He predicts China will become a competitor in 25 years.
- The competitor to the 787-10 is the A350-900 at 331 pax vs 315 pax with more range and cargo capability or derating the A359 gives a lighter aircraft at the same range.
- The 35 more seats of the 777X means the larger airplane than the A350-1000 is 35t heavier than the latter aircraft.
- The A380 hasn’t been fully optimized by many airlines; it could easily take 50 more seats.
- The A330neo is an interesting idea; we have to look at the money we have to spend and cannibalizing our A350 program. It will be the same size as the 787-9, which will have 1,000 mi more range. We could cover 92% of the routes with a wider seat and much lower capital cost. We have to look at the resources. It may not happen by Farnborough.
- No A350 slots are available until 2019-2020. Effectively sold out through 2019 though could move some positions around.
- In a walking press “scrum,” we asked Leahy, “if there is a potential market for 1,100-1,200 A330neos, why wouldn’t you do the airplane?” Leahy replied that the answer may be self-evident but once more noted that cost and resources will be important considerations. Talks with the engine makers, Rolls-Royce and GE, continue to determine the potential cost split between Airbus and them.
Airbus Innovation Days, Part 1: Leahy speaks about Emirates A350 order cancellation
We’re at the Airbus Innovation Days Wednesday-Thursday, with most of the information embargoed until Thursday evening. However, the following was not embargoed.
John Leahy, COO-Customers of Airbus, called the Emirates Airlines cancellation “not good news commercially,” but noted that there have been fewer cancellations of the A350 than the Boeing 787 program.
He noted that the deliveries were scheduled from 2019, so there is time to place new orders.
Leahy declined to comment on any connection between last year’s EK order for the A380 and this cancellation. He noted that EK is ordering more A380s and has been urging Airbus to re-engine the airplane, which Airbus is studying.
Emirates cancels A350 order, could be boost for slow-selling 777 Classic
Airbus announced Wednesday morning French time that Emirates Airlines canceled its firm order for 70 A350 XWBs.
In a statement, Airbus said:
Airbus confirms that Emirates Airline has decided to cancel its order of 70 A350 XWB aircraft. The decision follows on-going discussions with the airline in light of their fleet requirement review, as demonstrated by their order of 50 additional A380 at the last Dubai Airshow and their continuous interest in the program
Airbus and Emirates Airline benefit from a long-standing relationship and the airline recently reiterated its confidence in Airbus products particularly by praising the A380 and the benefits the aircraft brings to their operations.
The order of 50 A350-900 and 20 A350-1000 was originally placed by Emirates Airline in 2007 with first delivery slots scheduled from 2019.
This cancellation could open a hole in Emirates’ fleet plan. The so-called middle market for wide body twins is the heart of the market. This cancellation could open an opportunity for Boeing to step in with the slow-selling 777-300ER, which has a major production gap beginning in 2017. Rather than introduce a new fleet type, Emirates could opt to stay with the 777-300ER for commonality, or perhaps its huge order for 150 Boeing 777-8/9s may supply fleet needs.
Airbus has more than 800 orders, options and LOIs for the A350 even after cancellation.