Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
European Regionals Face Hostile Operating Environment
Subscription Required
By Kathryn B. Creedy
Third in a Series. Previous articles:
- The future of regional jets is limited by choices, Scope Clause
- US Regional Consolidation Began Before Covid
Introduction
Aug. 31, 2020, (c) Leeham News: European regionals face far greater challenges than Covid and, sadly, much of what is happening to the industry is beyond its control. The result is similar to failures seen in the U.S. Flybe’s recent loss resulted from pre-Covid problems which also led to the pre-Covid failures of such airlines as Flybmi and Cobalt.
The failures illustrate, however, the three reasons why European regionals are so fragile – low-cost competition, geography, and challenging government policy.
Flybe is just the latest of many regionals to cease operations owing to harsh conditions in Europe.
Summary
- Government Policies Hardest on Regionals
- LCC Competition Challenging
- Consumer Protections Crushing
- Turboprops Have Large Role
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 6. Tank placement.
August 28, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our series on Hydrogen as an energy store for airliners we look at the challenge of placing the hydrogen tanks efficiently.
Different from carbon fuels, liquid hydrogen needs specially shaped and bulky tanks. It can’t be stored in the wingbox as today’s Jet-A1.
Figure 1. The Tu-155 Hydrogen research aircraft with its aft fuselage tank. Source: Tupolev.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 4.
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 27, 2020, © Leeham News: After presenting Boeing’s and Airbus’ first 300 seater long-range widebodies, the 777-200ER and A340-300 in Part 3, we now fly them both on the route Paris to San Fransisco to understand their economics.
The A340-300 was first on the market, but when the 777-200ER arrived amid changed ETOPS rules, the four holer found the twin a difficult competitor. We use our airliner performance model to understand why.
Summary
- The A340-300 has about the same payload-range performance as the later introduced 777-200ER.
- Its economics is competitive with the 777-200ER, yet sales dried up when the 777-200ER became available. We explain why.
HOTR: Values, rents leveling off for 5-year old aircraft
By the Leeham News staff
Aug. 25, 2020, © Leeham News: Lease rates and aircraft values on narrowbody, mainline jets appear to be leveling off, except for the Boeing 
737-700.
Ishka, the UK-based appraisal company, revised its tracking presentation in last week’s update. Moving from text to a graphic, it’s visually apparent that values for the A320, 737-700, Boeing 737-800 and -900ER began to level off in May. Values for the Airbus A321 began to level off in June.
Lease rates for all airplanes except the 737-700 began to level off in June. Rates for the -700 continue to decline.
These are for off-lease, half-life aircraft that are five years old.
Half-life means an airplane half-way through its maintenance cycle.
R&D spending at Boeing plunges; Airbus yet to kick in
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Aug. 24, 2020, © Leeham News: Research and development spending at Boeing Commercial Airplanes declined 21% in the first half this year compared with 2019.
From 2017 through 2019, BCA’s R&D spending declined 13%.
During the first half this year, Airbus Commercial airplanes R&D spending declined 1%. From 2017-2019, R&D spending increased 31%.
Boeing’s decline in 2019 vs 2018 and the first half of 2020 vs 2019 clearly reflects the grounding of the 737 MAX.
The flat spending in 2017-2018 reflects Boeing’s corporate approach of keeping R&D spending level while returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders.
Airbus, on the other hand, was aggressively pursuing green aviation R&D, driven by a European Union that is more dedicated to green aviation than the USA is.
Summary
- COVID-19 related R&D spending cuts may not be fully seen until the third quarter.
- Boeing suspended R&D spending on the New Midmarket Airplane in January. Coupled with MAX grounding pressure, Boeing’s spending was already depressed.
- Airbus said it was suspending all R&D except for the A321XLR after the global COVID devastation on air passenger demand.
- Airbus historically outspends Boeing in R&D.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of Hydrogen. Part 5. The Hydrogen tank.
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 21, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our series on hydrogen as an energy store for airliners we start the design discussion of a hydrogen-fueled airliner by understanding the onboard storage of hydrogen better.
While there is present knowledge from for instance the space launcher industry, the storage demands for launchers are hours rather than days. Several implementations of longer storage aeronautical tanks have been done, among others by NASA/Boeing for high flying UAVs.
Airbus and the Russian aircraft industry were also active with research during the 1990s and Tupolev built a test aircraft that included a complete hydrogen fuel system (Figure 1).
Figure 1. The Tu-155 Hydrogen research aircraft. Source: Tupolev.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 3
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 20, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the economics of the 747-400 and the A380 on the Los Angeles to Sydney route. We now turn our attention to Airbus’ first long-range aircraft, the A340-300, on a Europe to US West Coast mission.
Summary
- A340 launch and development;
- Competing aircraft;
- Satisfactory commercial success;
- A thin long-haul route.
No surge in new-build freighters from COVID expected
Subscription Required
Now open to all Readers.
By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Aug. 17, 2020, © Leeham News: Coronavirus caused a spike in freight demand. But don’t look for Airbus or Boeing to see a spike in demand for new build freighters.
Boeing hoped to advance the timeline for the launch of the 777-8F. The original plan for the 777X family was entry-into-service of the -9 in late 2019 or early 2020. The 777-8 passenger model (8P) would follow by two years. The -8F would follow two years after that.
As the -9 EIS slipped to late 2020 and the 737 MAX grounding took its toll, -8 development was suspended. The -8P EIS was unofficially reset to 2024.
Now, the 777-9 EIS is rescheduled to 2022. Production of the 777 line is going to 2/mo. With freight demand spiking due to COVID and widebody passenger production not expected to recover until 2025, Boeing thought advancing the -8F launch could boost the X line.
It’s not to be.
Summary
- Boeing hoped to launch the 777-8F with 2024 EIS.
- No market interest scotched the plan.
- P2F conversions of 777-300ER gain interest.
- Airbus hopes for A330-900F are dashed.
Pontifications: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact
Aug. 17, 2020, © Leeham News: At least half the Airbus A330-900 skyline is with airlines that are in administration, technically insolvent or with a politically sanctioned carrier.
By Scott Hamilton
These could be characterized as in Red Alert.
The COVID-19 crisis places the remaining orders in Yellow Alert.
Airbus, as of its July website tally, has 226 A330-900s in backlog. One hundred fourteen of these, or 50.44%, are in Red Alert.
Sunset of the Quads, Part 2
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 12, 2020, © Leeham News: We deepen our look at the Queen of the Skies and it’s best selling version, the 747-400.
We go through what made it the great aircraft it was and why Qantas replaced it on its trunk routes to the US West coast.
We pick Los Angeles to Sydney as the benchmark route, a route on the range limit for the 747-400, and check how it stacks up economically versus the A380, its replacement.
Summary
- The 747-400 reigned the skies for 15 years, combining a trans-Pacific range with a good passenger and cargo capacity.
- Once Boeing introduced the 777-300ER and Airbus the A380, the 747-400’s ruling of the skies was over. It trailed in both capacity and efficiency.
- It continued in operation until today with many airlines, still a useful aircraft for long and dense routes as long as the fuel prices stayed low.