Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044 June 12, 2025
- Paris Air Show preview: Don’t look for big news June 11, 2025
- P&W: the troubled GTF will be the best engine for the next single-aisle airplane June 11, 2025
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
Pontifications: Spirit Air reveals new seats at Apex
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 16, 2019, © Leeham News: Los Angeles—Spirit Airlines, a US ultra-low-cost carrier, is upgrading its passenger seating experience, the airline’s CEO announced last week at the Apex Expo 2019 event.
Ted Christie unveiled new designs for its Big Front Seat—Spirit’s version of First Class—and coach seats that are ergonomically designed and intended to add more room and redefine how seats are measured.
The Big Front Seat appears little different than the previous version—more padding seems to be the main feature.
But the changes to coach seating, where most people fly, are billed to have the potential to make a big difference compared with the ever-slimmer, increasingly uncomfortable seats offered by many suppliers and installed on most airlines.
WTO clears US for $10bn in tariffs in Airbus subsidy case
Sept. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: The World Trade organization Friday concluded that the US may impose up to $10bn in tariffs against the European Union as a final result of the 15-year trade dispute over Airbus subsidies.
Politico first reported the WTO decision, which has not been made public.
Airbus issued a terse statement.
“The WTO decision is neither public nor authorized for release. We do not comment on rumors on a report that is not public,” a spokesman said in an email. “Aviation is a global industry, and no aircraft comes from one single country or zone. Nobody will win — it’s a lose-lose for the whole industry if we move to tariffs.”
Boeing declined comment.
Airbus touts Airspace, Internet of Things at APEX convention
Sept. 13, 2019, © Leeham News, Los Angeles: Airbus is expanding its Airspace interior look to the A321LR and A321XLR, providing a common theme with its widebody A330neo and A350 family members.
The OEM is also launching the fully cabin-connected Internet of Things (IoT), a system connecting just about everything in a cabin, for passenger experience and airline use.
The moves were revealed at the 2019 APEX convention last week in Los Angeles.
A321 accounts for 50%+ of future deliveries; few production gaps
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Introduction
Sept. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: More than half the Airbus A320 family scheduled for delivery over the next four years will be the A321neo, according to an analysis performed by LNA.
Airbus is sold out through 2024 the current production rate of 60/mo or 720 per year.
The production rate increases to 63/mo next year, although LNA doesn’t have a precise time when this occurs.
A variable is also whether a full 12 months of production is calculated, or only 11 ½ months to allow for the summer vacation shutdown.
Either way, the production gaps appear manageable through 2024.
Summary
- Previous Airbus forecasts A321 would account for half of production were viewed skeptically.
- A321 long-term future depends on Boeing’s decision over the New Midmarket Airplane.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 7.
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we discussed the flight control laws which are implemented with classical flight controls compared with the Embraer E-Jet and Airbus A320 FBW systems last week.
Now we describe alternative FBW approaches, analyzing Boeing’s 777/787 system and Airbus’ A220 system.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 777 and 787 FBW system architecture. Source: Boeing.
Opportunity and challenges of a 787-10ER, Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 5, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we examined how a longer-range model of Boeing’s 787-10 would look like. We designed a 787-10ER version (ER for Extended Range) by increasing the Maximum TakeOff Weight of the aircraft. We also did some other adjustments to accommodate the increased weight.
We now compare the resulting aircraft with its nearest competitor, the Airbus A350-900. How would a 787-10ER stack up against an A350-900?
Summary:
- A 787-10ER is a narrower aircraft with a smaller wing than an A350-900. This affects passenger comfort but it also gives a lighter aircraft with less wetted area.
- The later generation engines on the A350-900 closes the difference in operating costs depending on how the aircraft is operated.
Airbus holds the line on A350 production rate
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Introduction
Sept. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus’ decision a few months ago to keep the A350 production rate at 10/mo appears to be a wise one, considering that there is a small production gap in 2022 but increasingly large ones from 2023.
Boeing boosted rates this year of the 787, which competes with the A350-900 but not the -1000, to 14/mo. Boeing is sold out at this rate in 2020 and 2021, but has a big gap in 2022 and larger gaps thereafter.
Both companies bank on a splurge of orders early next decade to fill the production gaps. Each says there will be a retirement surge beginning in about 2022.
Airbus offers the A330neo and A350. Boeing pitches the 787 and 777X—with a combined production capacity of 35/mo or 389/yr at current rates.
Summary
- Skyline quality is generally good, but weak spots and one blue-chip order bear watching.
- Some significant production gaps emerge in 2023.
- A330-900 competes with A350-900 for orders.
Pontifications: Catching up on Odds and Ends-Alaska’s Airbus fleet, first E195-E2 delivery, Boeing’s MAX rebranding question
- Take our Boeing 737 MAX rebranding poll at the end of this post.
Sept. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time to catch up on Odds and Ends.
Alaska Airlines
In its second quarter earnings call and 10Q Securities and Exchange Filing, Alaska Airlines said it was returning one Airbus A319 and two A320s off lease this year and next.
By Scott Hamilton
These airplanes are from its Virgin America acquisition, which introduced the Airbus family into the all-Boeing Alaska mainline operations.
Alaska officials have said several times they are evaluating whether to phase out all Airbuses and return to an all-Boeing fleet, or keep the Airbuses and operate a mixed fleet indefinitely.
I wondered if this was the start of the phase out.
“We are planning to return 1 A319 this year and 2 A320s next year at normal lease expiration,” Brandon Pederson, EVP and CFO of the company, wrote LNA. “This is not part of a broader fleet decision, nor a phase out of the smaller Airbus aircraft. Leases on the remaining 50 A319/A320 aircraft in the fleet have varying maturities through 2025.”
Pontifications: Embraer sees E175-E2 orders this year outside US
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 26, 2019, © Leeham News: My column July 22 entitled Embraer counts on Boeing heft for E2 sales boost raised a few hackles in Sao Jose dos Campos, headquarters of Embraer.
It wasn’t meant to. Rather, slow sales of the E-Jet E2 this year caught the attention of more than a few in the market, so I thought putting some perspective on the issue was worthwhile.
After all, sales of the Bombardier C Series were slow between the announcement of selling 50.01% of the program and consummation of the deal nearly a year later.
Such is the case with E2 sales pending consummation of the Boeing-Embraer joint venture, which has a target date of closing by year end, I wrote.
Airbus faces challenges for A330neo
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Aug. 26, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus faces near-term challenges with its production skyline for the A330, even at a reduce rate of 4/mo, an analysis shows.
Looking forward from next year, when there are slightly more deliveries scheduled than production rates—a function of some leftover 2019 builds—Airbus faces an easily-filled gap in 2021 but huge production gaps beginning in 2022.
Even if Letters of Intent and options were fully converted to firm orders, big production gaps will exist.
A production rate cut seems inevitable in the near future.
Summary
- Key Emirates order not yet firmed up.
- Big, 200 unit A330-200R LOI no longer appears in data.
- Why keep the A330neo in the product line?