Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
Pontifications: Boeing finally cracks on 777 production rates, but spin continues
By Scott Hamilton
June 8, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Boeing finally said it may reduce production rates on the 777 Classic, but only initially by one aircraft per month and only starting in 2018.
Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times reported Saturday that Elizabeth Lund, VP for the 777 program, acknowledged the rate may have to come down but in a continuation of the message offered by CEO Jim McNerney during the first quarter earnings call in April, “feathering” the 777X production into the 777 Classic rate is the equivalent of maintaining the current rate of 8.3/mo, or 100 per year.
Boeing’s message has been evolving for some months. Originally Boeing said the production rate of the Classic will maintain the current rates right up to entry-into-service of the X, slated for 2020. Over the past several months, this definitive declaration has softened to the point of the current messaging.
As I wrote shortly after the 1Q earnings call, McNerney’s messaging wasn’t being swallowed by Wall Street analysts, or by this journalist.
Read more
A350 replacing A340-300 / 777-200ER, still on with lower fuel prices?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 7, 2015, c. Leeham Co. We have just rounded off a series of articles around how A350 is to fly, its systems approach and lastly the conversion of Finnair’s A340/A330 pilots to A350. Finnair will replace the airlines A340-300 with the A350-900.
A question that comes up is how much more efficient is the A350 that is delivered to these airlines, and does the investment still make sense with today’s lower fuel prices? To get an answer we took the two customers that will get their A350 within the next months, Vietnam Airlines and Finnair, and we compared A350-900 to the aircraft that it will replace in their fleets, Boeing 777-200ER for Vietnam Air and Airbus A340-300 for Finnair.
We used our proprietary model to fly these aircraft over some typical routes for the airline’s, for Vietnam Airlines Saigon-London and for Finnair Helsinki-Shanghai.
Summary:
- The present aircraft are over 20% less efficient than A350 on these routes.
- For the A340 it is the engines which are the culprit, for the 777-200ER the wing.
- With a realistic fuel price for the planning period the differences in efficiency are large enough to motivate the switch.
IATA: Lufthansa welcomes US carriers to Mid-East dispute
Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa Group
June 7, 2015: The chief executive officer of Lutfhansa Airlines said he welcomes the Big Three US airliners to the dispute over whether the Big Three Middle Eastern carriers are unfairly competing against legacy airlines.
Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa Group, told a press conference on the opening day of the IATA Annual General Meeting that LH has long been complaining about Emirates Airline, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways and their aggressive expansion, first in Europe and now the US.
American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are challenging open skies and subsidies to the ME3.
A changing Airbus
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Airbus, the commercial aircraft part of Airbus group, is in a change period which in terms of its results will be as profound as the many restructuring programs “Power 8”, “Power 8 plus” and “Future EADS” were in unifying and restructuring Airbus after the A380 problems.
The change is taking place in a very different environment. Airbus and Airbus group are no longer plagued by national infighting and severe duplication of resources, the drivers for the previous programs. Rather it is a necessary change for a company that goes from focusing on getting large new aircraft developments out the door and expand market share, to a company which needs to focus productivity and how to avoid complacency.
Widebody sales prospects this year
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Introduction
June 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Sales of widebody jets have slowed going into the Paris Air Show in under two weeks. Airbus sold six A330-200s, four A330-200Fs and
Boeing hopes to make a sale to Emirates Airlines later this year for the 787-10, giving a boost to this program and acing out Airbus in the process.
25 A330-900s, or 35 widebodies. No A350s. No A380s. Boeing sold three 747-8s, one 767, 25 777 Classics and (net) 34 787s, or 63 widebodies.
But we expect sales to pick up for the second half of the year, propelled by what appears to be enticing hints by Airbus that it may have finally achieved sales from China for its long-stalled A330ceo Regional airliner.
But the big prize, the Emirates Airlines order for 50-100 Airbus A350s or Boeing 787-10s (the number varies), is likely a late-in-the-year deal. There are a couple of others of decent size being competed as well.
And then there is the prospect of the launch of the Airbus A380neo.
Summary
- Airbus looks to Air Show to boost orders
- Boeing continues to hope 777F will save the day on the Classic
- Deals by year-end hoped for.
- Next big opportunity: the Dubai Air Show.
Pontifications: re-engining airliners and the A380
By Scott Hamilton
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins in two weeks. One thing that won’t happen is the launch of the Airbus A380neo.
We still think it will happen, though at a later date.
Re-engining the A380 is highly controversial. The A380 is the plane critics love to hate. You can argue whether it should have been built in the first place. You can argue whether it was 10 years too soon. You can argue whether Airbus misjudged the size of the market. You can even argue its passenger appeal. I haven’t flown on the A380 yet, so I can’t speak from personal experience on the latter. I’ve previously discussed the other points.
You can argue whether the airplane should be re-engined. Leeham News concluded in January 2014 Airbus really had no choice but to re-engine the A380 if it wants to continue offering the model. If done inexpensively (a relative term, to be sure), it makes sense given the arrival around 2020 of the Boeing 777-9. It’s when design creep happens that trouble arises. Just ask Boeing on the 747-8.
Emirates Airlines says it will buy up to 200 A380neos if Airbus proceeds. Qatar Airways expresses interest. Lufthansa Airlines said a neo is needed to keep the A380 viable in the future, though it hasn’t taken the next step of saying it will buy more.
Re-engining is hardly new. Let’s take a look. Read more
Paris Air Show: Qatar and others
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Introduction
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. It could be called the Qatar Airways Air Show.
Qatar Airways plans to have five airliners on display at the Paris Air Show in two weeks: the Airbus A319, A320, A350, A380 and the Boeing 787. The carrier hasn’t 
announced whether it will provide an aerial display as it has at previous air shows, but Qatar may well have more airliners there than Airbus or Boeing.
As for manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing, we don’t expect anything of consequence from these.
Summary
- Irkut, COMAC, Mitsubishi, Sukoi and ATR are other major aircraft producers that will be at the Paris Air Show.
- Engine makers CFM International, GE Aviation, Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and Engine Alliance will also be there.
- An update on Airbus expectations.
Embraer ramps up smaller airplane messaging
Figure 1. Click on image to enlarge.
May 28, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Embraer is ramping up is messaging that the E-Jet family provides a better Return on Capital Employed in many circumstance than the larger Airbus and Boeing single-aisle family.
In a new push to be unveiled at the Paris Air Show in a little over two weeks, Embraer will describe its “New Metrics for Success” to an international audience in an open forum.
EMB has been showing airlines and lessors the concept for some time, and we received a briefing on the essential elements when we visited EMB last October at is home base in San Jose, Brazil.
New Metrics for Success takes airlines away from the traditional metric of economics, the Cost per Available Seat mile, and focuses trip costs and the higher quality revenue obtained by limiting the number of low-yield seats on a flight that must be offered to fill larger airplanes. Read more
Airbus Innovation days: A350-1000 getting real
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 28, 2015, c. Leeham Co. We are visiting the Airbus Innovation days where we have been given an update all Airbus civil aircraft programs. The perhaps most interesting update is the progress of the A350-1000 as its forerunner, A350-900, is ramping its production to 15 aircraft during 2015.
The A350-1000 is next in turn; it will be flying next summer and will enter service with first customer Qatar Airways summer of 2017. The A350-1000 is getting more real and Airbus gave a good insight to the aircraft’s readiness for prime time during the sessions of today.
Boeing 777 Japanese suppliers see rate cut in 2016: BAML
May 26, 2015: Key Japanese suppliers on the Boeing 777 program have told Bank of America Merrill Lynch they expect a production rate cut in 2016, BAML aerospace analyst Ron Epstein reports in a note published earlier today.
Epstein cites BAML’s Japanese industrial analyst Takahiro Mori in his own note dated May 21. Mori also wrote that Boeing is cutting pricing to its supply chain in Japan, putting additional squeeze on profits.