Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing 777X heading towards design freeze a bit heavier than planned.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 12, 2015, © Leeham Co. As we reported from Boeing’s Paris Air Show briefing, Boeing’s 777X project is progressing to a design freeze later in 2015. At the briefing everything was presented as being on track with no changes of key data. There have been signs that this in not fully the case. The 777X program is suffering the same disease that hits other aircraft programs, weight gain flu.
To understand it better, we compiled the many indications that points to weight increase and ran them through our proprietary model to understand why and see what it means for the aircraft’s performance.
Summary:
- Weight increase is an evil that all aircraft programs battle with. Our analysis shows that 777X is no different.
- Engine thrust is one of the areas which will be increased to mitigate increased weight. We give the latest status of GE9X thrust development, now beyond 105,000 lb.
- A number of airframe changes have been made. We analyze their consequences and make predictions for future maximum weight increases.
Pontifications: Final thoughts of the Paris Air Show
- Our interview during the Paris Air Show with Tom Williams, president and COO of Airbus Commercial, is now open to all Readers. Williams discussions production, supply chain issues, launch aid for the potential A380neo and more.
By Scott Hamilton
June 22, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show was largely as expected, with a few small surprises. Boeing did better than expected via-a-vis Airbus, actually leading slightly in firm orders and tied in orders-and-options going into Thursday. This is virtually never the case, particularly at the Paris Air Show, Airbus’ “home” turf. At the same time, some Wall Street analysts noted the firm orders fell below expectations. I’m not especially concerned about whether an announcement was firm or a commitment, because the latter typically firm up, if not within the current calendar year then usually in the next. Note, for example, Boeing announced the launch of the 777X program at the 2013 Dubai Air Show was some 200 commitments, or thereabouts, but the orders didn’t firm until 2014. Airbus announced a commitment for 250 A320s from Indigo in 2014 and it will likely be firmed up this year.