Leeham News and Analysis
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The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 5.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 18, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the energy consumption and range of a typical nine-seater battery-electric commuter aircraft using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM).
We could see that the useful range for this aircraft was short, even when using the full 19,000lb Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) to give the battery the maximum size and using VFR flight rules. Under IFR flight rules, the commuter was not usable with available batteries this side of 2030.
Figure 1. Our battery-electric commuter was similar in design to the Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
When a project discovers these constraints (which often happen several years into the project, as upstarts don’t have competent aircraft performance models that handle energy consumption for different phases of flight), they start looking at Hybrid architectures.
We do the same. Once again, our model will help us to predict performance, range, operational economics, and also production costs (as a hybrid is a more complex aircraft than a battery electric one).
Deutsche Aircraft: supply chain resilience for a new era of production
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By Charlotte Bailey
Deutsche Aircraft is resurrecting the D328 turboprop as the D328eco, but with five other roles collectively called the D328MR (Multi-Role). Credit: Deutsche Aircraft.
Dec. 17, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: As supply chain pressures continue to bite across the aerospace industry, smaller OEMs find themselves presented with additional opportunities. Speaking at December 2025’s Hamburg Aviation Forum, Deutsche Aircraft CEO Nico Neumann elaborated on the challenges ahead as the company prepares to put its re-imagined D328eco into production.
As the German OEM prepares to bring its updated regional turboprop to market (in the form of the D328eco), “the demand is there, but now we have to find ways to deliver,” stated Neumann.
Production of the original 32-passenger D328 ceased in the early 2000s. Deutsche Aircraft acquired the type certificate from former manufacturer Fairchild Dornier in 2006. Only 107 D328s were built, followed by another 110 D328Jets. For the last two decades, it has continued to support between 40-50 328s and around two dozen 328 Jets in service. However, with the OEM anticipating 2027 type certification and entry into service for its upcoming 40-passenger D328eco, manufacturing considerations are already underway.
Electric taxi solution aims for 2027 certification
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By Charlotte Bailey
Dec. 15, 2025, © Leeham News: US startup Green Taxi Aerospace is optimistic about receiving 2027 FAA certification for its all-electric, APU-powered taxi system, a solution it says can save up to 5%-20% of the fuel burn of a short-haul flight. Having submitted its certification plan to the regulator a few weeks ago, the company is currently working with Delta Air Lines and Embraer to launch its retrofitted concept with the E175 regional jet.
Although many aerospace sustainability initiatives are focusing on the efficiencies of engine optimisation, SAF, or alternative propulsion, Green Taxi believes “there is nothing else that can save this [level of fuel reduction] that we can have deployed in under five years.” CEO and founder David Valaer explained, “A jet engine is not designed to run on the ground, where its fuel flow is about 60% at idle.” This additional power on the ground also causes additional wear on the brake components, something he describes as akin to unnecessarily “driving a car with the gas pedal halfway down.”
Valaer appeared at the Sustain Aero Lan Future Aero Festival conference this month in Amsterdam.
Avolon: Looking to long-term eco-aviation investment opportunities
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By Charlotte Bailey
Dec. 11, 2025, © Leeham News: With around 50% of the world’s operational commercial aircraft owned by lessors, companies such as Avolon are keeping
a weather eye on the technologies that could power the fleet of the future.
And as the aircraft purchased today are likely to be operating well into the 2050s, understanding the impact of upcoming sustainability incentives and technologies is already a relevant consideration.
Supply chain continues to bedevil Airbus, Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 8, 2025, © Leeham News: Supply chain difficulties continue to bedevil Airbus and Boeing deliveries this year.
Embraer also has had some impact from supply chain disruptions, but at a much lower rate.
November deliveries by Airbus and Boeing are lower than in September and October. Boeing delivered 53 and 55 aircraft, respectively—but only 42 in November.
Airbus and Boeing are struggling to meet production goals because the supply chain still can’t delivery parts and engines on time. In some cases, quality also is a factor. Photo Credit: Airbus.
Airbus delivered 78 aircraft in October and 73 in September. Defective panels delivered by a supplier, which Airbus did not identify, for the A320 family were discovered, impacting total November deliveries (72) and anticipated December deliveries. Airbus now expects to deliver 790 aircraft this year compared with its original guidance of 823. Airbus delivered 84 aircraft in November last year. Airbus needs to deliver 133 aircraft this month to meet its revised, lower goal.
In addition, delays in receiving interiors, mainly from Collins and Safran but also from others, caused Airbus and Boeing to delay widebody deliveries. Continuing shortages of engines from Pratt & Whitney and CFM (GE and Safran) for the GTF and LEAP impacted Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. PW continues to divert new production GTFs to AOG (Aircraft on Ground) A220s, A320s and E-Jets. A strike at GE interrupted CFM LEAP deliveries.
Airbus and Boeing want to increase production rates next year and in following years. The supply chain is the driving factor.
Aerospace analyst Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets raises some caution from the supply chain in his survey for the second half of 2025. In a report issued on Dec. 4, Herbert wrote, “Just when confidence in the aerospace OE outlook appears to have inflected, we get a reminder from Airbus (ELAC software, metal fuselage panel quality escape) that the industry is still dependent on a relatively fragile supply chain, and we believe the supply chain will remain part of the A&D narrative for the foreseeable future.”
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 4.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 4, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the aircraft batteries. These are heavy components with very low energy capacity per unit weight.
To illustrate the kind of aircraft-level challenges the batteries pose, we are using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to design a typical alternative-propulsion battery-electric aircraft and then fly it on typical missions.
The aircraft is similar in size to a 9-seat Tecnam P2012 commuter (Figure 1) but optimised for Battery-Electric propulsion.
Figure 1. The Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
The APCM will give us the airframe-level energy consumption for each phase of the flight. Subsequently, we can add the different losses in the propulsion system to determine the energy consumed from the battery and the endurance/range it offers, dependent on VFR or IFR mission reserves.
Airbus rolls out prototype A350F in march toward 2026 certification
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 1, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus rolled its first A350F out of the factory last week. It now moves to another building for the installation of systems and engines. The first flight is planned for the third quarter next year, as a second freighter is completed to begin regimented flight testing.
Airbus hopes to deliver the first freighter in the second half of 2027.
Figure 1. The first Airbus A350F rolled out of the factory this month. Source: Airbus.
Boeing’s new freighter, the 777-8F, is still a “paper” airplane. With 59 orders from six customers, entry into service (EIS) is now estimated for 2029 (some say 2030). Airbus has more than 80 orders from 13 customers. Airbus claims a 58% market share of new freighter orders.
A350F sales fall short of the 120 sales for new-build A300-600Fs, Airbus’ best-selling freighter, most of which went to package operators FedEx and UPS. However, neither has chosen between the A350F or the 777-8F for their next airplanes to replace the decades-old Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) MD-11Fs. The future of these aircraft is uncertain following the Nov. 4 crash of a UPS jet in Louisville (KY).
Within days of the accident, which killed three pilots and 11 people on the ground, Boeing recommended grounding the nearly 60 MD-11 freighters on the US registry for inspections. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) made the grounding mandatory shortly after.
Related Stories
- UPS crash presents potential opportunities for Airbus’ A350F
- Airbus sticks to 2027 EIS for A350F (Briefing pre-Dubai Air Show)
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
November 27, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the electric motor of an electric aircraft, which drives propellers or fans. It’s a component that is straightforward to develop, but the certification requirements for the aircraft and VTOL industry have slowed progress.
Now we look at the component that causes trouble for all alternative propulsion aircraft, except those that burn hydrogen in gas turbine engines: the batteries. Batteries work well in cars, where the requirement for energy capacity relative to weight is much lower and where energy recovery during braking reduces the energy required from the battery.
Figure 1. The battery-electric aircraft that flies operational trials as we speak, the Beta Technologies Alia CX300. Source: Leeham Co.
Aircraft batteries are a heavy component with very low energy storage capacity. Today’s aircraft battery system has about 60 times lower energy density per kg or lb than aircraft fuel.
The hope over the last decade has been that this relationship should improve. It has, it’s gone from about 70 times to 60 times in the last 10 years. This will improve further, the question is if it will continue at the slow pace of the last 10 years or not?
Emirates seeks larger A350, 777 after big Dubai order
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing landed a big order for its 777-9 at the Dubai Air Show last week, valued at $38bn at list prices for 65 airplanes ($575.8m each). Emirates Airline, already Boeing’s largest customer for the airplane, now has 270 777Xs on order. This represents 43% of the firm orders once added to Boeing’s backlog.
Rendering of an Emirates Airline Boeing 777-9. Credit: Boeing.
Emirates simultaneously said it will support a feasibility study to stretch the 777-9 to a larger capacity 777-10. Airline president Tim Clark has been urging Boeing to launch the larger derivative.
Also at the air show, Airbus Commercial airplanes CEO Christian Scherer said Airbus is revisiting a study whether to stretch the A350-1000 (the same size as the Boeing 777-300ER) to a larger “A350-2000” model. This would be the same size as the 777-9.
However, don’t look for Airbus to launch a stretch any time soon, if at all. Airbus previously studied stretching the -1000 and decided the market couldn’t support two airplanes the size of the 777-9. Furthermore, the best target market for these aircraft—the Middle East—already accounts for about 63% of 777X orders before the latest Emirates deal, highly limiting the market potential for an X competitor.
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
November 20, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, we started last week by discussing what happened after the trigger by the Airbus E-fan flight in 2014 and the introduction of the Tesla Model S car two years before. The alternative propulsion aircraft projects that followed had a rocky path. They followed the Gartner Hype-curve, Figure 1.
There were hundreds of projects announced, more or less serious. A few of these came to producing hardware, and flew test flights, then stopped. Most stayed as PowerPoint presentations and fancy renderings, promising capabilities that were not possible to realize. The result was that we passed the Peak of Inflated Expectations and entered the Trough of Disillusionment. Investors fled to AI, and projects froze or stopped.
Figure 1. The Gartner Hype-curve. Source: Gartner Inc.
By 2025, we are in the Disillusionment phase. As there are signs we can now enter a phase of real, sustainable progress, it’s timely to take stock of where we are and what progress we can expect over the next decade.
To understand why progress has been so difficult, after explaining that learnings from Cars are not transferable last week, we start by focusing on two components that we find in every alternative propulsion concept, the Electric Motor and the Battery system. Of the two components, the motor is the most straightforward to develop and certify for an aircraft. Still, we have only limited progress so far, and we detail why in today’s article.
The Battery System is the most challenging component for alternative propulsion aircraft, both in development and in use. We will spend next week’s article detailing why and how it has slowed down progress so far, and how this can change going forward.