Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus: Repeatedly Missing the Mark on delivery guidance
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By Karl Sinclair
March 2, 2026, © Leeham News: With the closing of the 2025 financial year, Airbus SE (AB) estimated how many commercial aircraft it expects to deliver to customers in the coming 12 months.
Along with guidance on expected revenues, profits, and free cash flow (FCF), investors and analysts use delivery metrics to assess not only Airbus’s success but also how the heavily integrated supply chain beneath the OEM is functioning.
It only takes one missing part to keep an aircraft glued to the tarmac, and as the old adage goes, “When a supplier has a problem, Airbus has a problem.” Even when it is buyer-furnished-equipment (BFE), like interiors.
Airbus has missed its aircraft delivery guidance in each of the last three years. The company had to reduce its guidance as the lack of engines, BFE, other parts, and quality control issues combined to cause Airbus to miss its early guidance.
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How close do the estimates provided by Airbus, some 12 months out, come to reality at year-end?
Are the projections pie-in-the-sky numbers or can they be safely relied upon to provide a clear picture of the short-term future?
LNA takes a deep dive into Airbus guidance accuracy by analyzing the original projections for the previous three years, any changes that it has made to those targets, and how well those prognostications held up at year-end.
Boeing defects and rework fell due to better supplier relations: exec
By Justin Bachman
Feb. 26, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing has seen quality rework hours on aircraft production drop 40% over the past year as its supplier base has trimmed defects, aiding the company’s recovery, Boeing’s supply chain head said.
Ihssane Mounir, the head of the Boeing Commercial Airplanes supply chain, at the 2024 PNAA conference. Credit: Leeham News.
The rework decrease through 2025 is “incredible and very significant,” Ihssane Mounir, senior vice president of Global Supply Chain and Fabrication for Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), told supplier partners, speaking Feb. 11 at the annual Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) conference in suburban Seattle.
“When you think about how that happened, it’s a whole slew of things that had to happen to drive the number down that way,” Mounir said in a talk that touted Boeing’s recovery to its supplier partners after six years of crisis and production problems.
Mounir assumed the role of SVP, Supply Chain and Fabrication, in December 2022, following six years as BCA’s top sales executive.
“It’s you paying attention to quality. It’s us augmenting our quality in our engineering teams, our fabrication teams, and our support teams, and putting them with you and helping you,” he said. “It’s us increasing our engineering support and being more responsive to the changes and to the asks and the analyses that come our way.”
The prevalence of supply-chain defects and Boeing’s need to rework incoming parts and subassemblies during production had become a source of deep conflict between the company and many of its 1,200 suppliers for several years.
When does Boom go boom; military goes green and loses the battle
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 23, 2026, © Leeham News: “How long until Boom goes boom?”
“eVTOLs, the perfectly mediocre over-priced helicopter.”
“We lost the battle, but we had a lower carbon footprint.”
These are just a few of the pithy comments to come out of the annual Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) conference this month in suburban Seattle.
Boom, the 88-passenger supersonic transport program, was founded in December 2014. Ten years later, it flew a demonstrator aircraft that bears no similarities to the Overture SST that the company is developing as the first passenger SST airliner since the Concorde.
The Boom Overture SST has many, many skeptics. Two were speakers at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance. Credit: Boom.
No established engine maker agreed to power the Overture. Rolls-Royce had an exploratory contract for a time, but bowed out. Boom cobbled together three companies to make an engine. More recently, the company is going to use the engine, whenever it works, to power energy plants.
There are few believers in aerospace who think Boom will be successful, despite raising a reported $600m-plus in funding, building a production facility and winning conditional orders from Japan, United and American airlines.
Richard Aboulafia, a managing director of Aerodynamic Advisory, said he would just “write off” Boom. Kevin Michaels, also an MD at the same consultancy, was just as direct. “We have a bet in our office going how long until Boom goes boom?”
They were no more kind toward the prospect of eVTOLs, especially the possibility of the US military using battery-powered eVTOLs on the battlefield.
Airbus leans toward launching “A220-500”, but faces challenges
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By Bjorn Fehrm and Scott Hamilton
Feb. 19, 2026, © Leeham News: Airbus appears likely to launch the long-discussed stretched version of the A220-300, nominally called the -500, as early as the Farnborough Air Show in July.
Figure 1. This illustration, created years ago by Leeham News, shows the concept of a “simple stretch” for the “A220-500.” This illustration does not include some aerodynamic improvements LNA believes are necessary. Airbus is already planning a high-density version of the A220-300. Credit: Leeham News.
Lars Wagner, the new CEO of Airbus Commercial Airplanes, told Reuters in January that he favors the new aircraft, which would seat 165 passengers in single class configuration. Wagner assumed the position on Jan. 1. His predecessor, Christian Scherer, had long favored the stretch.
Wagner didn’t provide Reuters with any details about the new airplane. But Scherer told LNA last year that the debate within Airbus was whether to pursue a “simple” stretch or one with a larger wing and more powerful engines. A simple stretch trades range for capacity. Scherer told LNA that customers told Airbus they were more interested in capacity than range.
Figure 2: The ranges of the A220-300 and the proposed A220-500, using airline rules and calculated by LNA’s Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM). Air France (CDG) and Delta Air Lines (ATL) have expressed interest in a stretched A220-300. Credit: Leeham News.
LNA confirms that a simple stretch is the preferred option. However, this does not mean that Airbus won’t tweak aerodynamics to improve operating and take-off performance and maintain as much range as possible. LNA has a good understanding of the likelihood of these tweaks and of the current proposed configuration of the A220-500. Using our proprietary Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM), the -500 should have a range about 13% lower than the -300.
LNA’s APCM analysis is based on today’s information. The data is subject to final details when Airbus completes the design freeze.
Here’s our analysis.
Privatizing Air Traffic Control: Why Canada’s Success Story Won’t Work Here
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By Vincent Bianco III
Opinion Contributor
Feb. 16, 2026, © Leeham News: Every now and then, calls to privatize the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or Air Traffic Control (ATC) emerge.
Vincent Bianco III.
Calls to privatize the FAA emerged after revelations about FAA oversight of The Boeing Co.’s 737 MAX certification came to light following the 2018 and 2019 fatal crashes that killed 346 people.
Following the January 2025 mid-air collision between an American Eagle regional jet and a military helicopter near Washington Reagan National Airport, calls once again to drastically revamp the FAA and/or privatize the ATC system emerged.
Some pointed to the privatization of Canada’s or Europe’s air traffic control systems as examples to follow. These calls also raise legitimate frustrations about government shutdowns disrupting air travel. As someone who spent the last 35 years inside (and alongside) the FAA’s Air Traffic Organization (ATO), I understand the urgency when the system breaks down.
But the solution—abolishing the FAA and creating “competing private certifiers”—betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what makes aviation safety work.
Let’s start with what these calls get right: Government shutdowns do create unnecessary vulnerability. User-fee funding models do provide more stable revenue. And yes, the 737 MAX disaster exposed serious problems with regulatory capture at the FAA.
Now let’s talk about what is catastrophically wrong.
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Spain becomes fourth country to join Aero Excellence initiative to improve supply chain
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By Charlotte Bailey
Feb. 12, 2026, © Leeham News, Hamburg: The European supply chain support strategy aims to streamline self-assessment and resilience.
Spain is to become the fourth country to join the European Aero Excellence International initiative, a multi-national program intended to help suppliers self-assess their own maturity levels and work towards building greater operational resilience. The announcement was made in December at the Hamburg Aviation Forum.
The relatively new scheme builds on a program first launched by the French Aerospace Industries Association (GIFAS) in 2023 and was co-developed by respective national aerospace and defense associations. These include Germany’s BDLI and the UK’s ADS Group. A representative from each trade association is joined on Aero Excellence’s board by three national industrial members.
Under Aero Excellence, participating suppliers (categorized across five areas) are supported to self-assess their own maturity level before an official assessment is made. Three levels of maturity (bronze, silver and gold) are then awarded by Aero Excellence assessors, a validation recognised industry-wide and intended to negate lengthy separate and repetitive individual assessments.
Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury previously described Aero Excellence’s intention to establish a universally recognised “maturity benchmark” designed to “strengthen the operational, environmental and cyber excellence of our industries in order to meet future challenges and improve competitiveness.”
Outlook 2026: The state of the major eVTOL projects
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Now open to all readers.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 9, 2026, © Leeham News: The eVTOL market saw a sobering 2025 after two of its high flyers, Lilium and Volocopter, both ceased operations in 2024. The remains of Volocopter were bought by Diamond Aircraft, which now markets a stripped-down VoloCity as a Light Sports eVTOL.
Further players ceased in 2025, with Hyundai’s Supernal halting further development, as did Airbus with its CityAirbus. Textron halted Nexus development, then shuttered the division, and Overair ceased operations after Hanwa stopped investing.
We have one VTOL that received local Chinese Type Certification in 2023, and one in 2024. EHang got the Type Certificate in 2023, Production Certificate in 2024, and Air Operator Certificate (AOC) in 2025. The drone multicopter looking Ehang EH216-S (Figure 1) was cleared to operate tourist flights in China. The other Chinese project was AutoFlight’s Prosperity five-seater, which achieved Chinese Type Certification in 2024.
Figure 1. The only certified eVTOL, the EHang EH216-S. Source: EHang.
The almost euphoric enthusiasm over eVTOLs that existed before COVID, where car manufacturers got involved as this could be the thing that took over personal transport for crowded cities, has now calmed down, as the operational use of the current generation of eVTOLs is 10 to 15-minute missions in fair weather, replacing helicopter services from the airport to the city centre.
The original story was different as early developers like Joby Aviation painted with a broad brush. There were statements about 150nm trips, 200 kts speeds, and unbeatable economics, with batteries that lasted 10,000 flights. What investors and pundits didn’t understand was that these were unrelated statements about physical limits: there was no AND between them.
Outlook 2026: The airliner projects that promise new technology and lower emissions
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Now open to all readers.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 5, 2026, © Leeham News: We survey new entrants that deviate from the classical gas-turbine tube-and-wing airframe concept and offer airliners the promise of lower emissions and, hopefully, lower costs.
We will do this by starting with those closest to certification and delivery, then tapering off to those who currently fly on PowerPoint.
If we didn’t apply this filter to what we consider real projects, we would describe over 50 entries, with additional ones announced with airline orders every month over the last few years. Few of these have progressed beyond plans, which is why we focus on those that have.
Overall, it’s amazing that 11 years after the Airbus E-fan battery-electric aircraft flew at the Farnborough Air Show in 2014, we still do not have a single certified alternative-propulsion passenger aircraft. We have one light-sport two-seat trainer, the Pipistrel Electro Velis, but nothing else.
Figure 1. The Airbus E-Fan at the Paris Air Show in 2015. Source: Wikipedia.
Fourth EU Clean Aviation funding proposal recognises hydrogen’s upcoming importance
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By Charlotte Bailey
Feb. 3, 2026, © Leeham News: The European Union co-funded Clean Aviation project has announced its fourth call for proposals, with an initial draft set to be followed by a formal version issued this month.
The upcoming call will provide up to €329.5m ($386m) in EU funding for disruptive new aircraft technologies, providing an estimated €824m ($966m) when combined with input from the private sector.
Speaking at the November 2025 Sustainable Aero Lab’s Future Aviation Festival in Amsterdam, EU Clean Aviation executive director Axel Krein explained that the next round will focus on technologies applicable to short-to-medium range aircraft, including regional aircraft architectures.
These will be augmented by the development of “transverse activities” (such as applicable certification standards) and other complementary “fast track areas.” The largest of five separate funding streams will be allocated to the development of ‘Ultra-Efficient Short to Medium Range (SMR)’ aircraft, with €130m ($114m) split across five projects.
The research and technology roadmap focuses on demonstrators up to ground testing, “addressing all key technologies,” states the proposal. This will validate the performance of technologies up to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6.
Flight demonstrations could also be used to validate testing “in realistic operational conditions.” Clean Aviation expects to complete a flight test demonstrator configuration freeze by the end of 2026 to support the start of flight testing by the end of 2029. A hybrid-electric Ultra-Efficient Regional Aircraft has been proposed as the baseline concept for this 50-100 passenger regional aircraft. Clean Aviation will also award €40m ($46m) for the development of an “advanced airframe for ultra-efficient regional aircraft.”
Net Zero by 2050 is beyond reach, but R&D, SAF work continues
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Feb. 2, 2026, © Leeham News: When the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) adopted its carbon Net Zero by 2050 policy at the October 2021 Annual General Meeting, it included milestones for increasing the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The outline also included the adoption of alternative energy technologies like hydrogen, batteries, and hybrids.
Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline. A voice of reality when it comes to eco-aviation. Credit: Emirates Airline.
Some, including LNA, quickly concluded that the timeline and some of the technologies were unachievable. Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, attended the IATA AGM. Don’t make promises you can’t keep, he told the assembly.
Since then, airlines across the globe have relaxed or even abandoned the IATA goals for their internal efforts.
SAF remains an elusive alternative. So does hydrogen. Battery-powered eVTOLs appear just around the corner for certification. However, developers of battery-powered commuter and regional airliners hit the reality that the weight of the batteries needed for even flights of a few hundred miles weighs more than is feasible. Some hybrid technologies appear to have promise, yet likely are technologies that appear to have promise for certain aircraft architectures, but need higher-performance batteries, which pushes these into the next decade.
Still, Europe continues to place a priority on sustainable aviation. Airbus, engine manufacturers and key suppliers continue their drive toward more sustainable aviation. However, Airbus backed off its 2035 target for a hydrogen-powered airplane. Rolls-Royce, key engine supplier MTU, and components supplier GKN, and others, strive for improving fuel efficiency and reducing emissions. Safran, a partner with GE Aerospace in the 50-50 joint venture CFM International, and an interiors manufacturer, likewise seeks environmental improvements to their products.
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In Asia, China is making a big bet on eVTOLs (and solar and automobile electric power). Its eVTOL industry is already flying in China. The country is the biggest producer in the world of solar panels and high-performance battery cells. China’s auto industry has a line-up of electric cars from small to luxury based on its battery technology.