Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Outlook 2026: Embraer well positioned, but new airplane launch fraught with risk
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By Tom Batchelor and Karl Sinclair
January 12, 2026, © Leeham News: Embraer enters the new year in a strong position: financially sound, operationally stable, and arguably in prime position to disrupt the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.
Credit: Embraer.
After several years of decline, Boeing is on the up but for now it remains consumed by certification challenges, while Airbus shows little desire to disturb a production system that is sold out well into the next decade.
Against this backdrop, all eyes are on Embraer to see what it will do next.
The company is known to be exploring a new airplane design in the 180-240 seat range. However, analysts suggest 2026 is unlikely to bring a significant step forward.
Rather, Embraer is likely to focus on maximising sales of its existing commercial aircraft, strengthening its industrial base, and expanding its services business.
Boeing is on its way back, but there’s a long way to go
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By Scott Hamilton and Karl Sinclair
Jan. 8, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing is on its way back.
Not to its glory days of engineering prowess. This won’t happen until Boeing develops a new airplane, and just how advanced it will be.
Boeing hopes the long-delay certification of the 737-7 MAX will occur this year. Launch customer Southwest Airlines looks for entry into service in 2027. Credit: Boeing.
But it’s on its way back to returning to a profitable, reliable company that puts safety and quality first.
That said, there is still a long way to go. By LNA’s estimation, it will be well into the next decade before Boeing’s balance sheet bears any resemblance to its 2018 financial picture of solid profits and low debt. That was the last year before Boeing entered what became six years of one crisis after another. Boeing ended 2018 with a “mere” $10bn in long-term debt. Revenues hit $101bn with an operating profit of $10.4bn and operating cash flow of $15.3bn.
Boeing ended the third quarter last year with more than $50bn in long-term debt, and near-breakeven if slight positive cash flow. Full-year 2025 results will be announced at the end of this month.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes in 2018 produced about 60% of the company’s revenues.
This year will build on Boeing’s momentum from last year. As always, especially in Boeing’s case, any Outlook is contingent on things outside of the company’s control upsetting the business.
Here’s how LNA sees the 2026 Outlook for Boeing.
Airbus adds emphasis for A220 to regional airlines; adding high-density version
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 6, 2026, © Leeham News: Airbus is tweaking the marketing messaging for the A220 to boost sales for regional airline operations.
Marketing for the A220 began as the C Series when Bombardier launched the program in 2008. Bombardier positioned the 100-seat CS100 as a replacement for the Airbus A318 and Boeing 737-500/600. The 130-seat CS300 was designed to replace the Airbus A319 and Boeing 737-700. The Airbus and Boeing airplanes are considered mainline aircraft as opposed to regional airliners.
The A220-100 is a “necessary” part of the family, Airbus says. Credit: Airbus.
Bombardier also design a larger CS500, but didn’t launch the program. The CS500 would be a direct competitor to the A320 and 737-800/8.
Airbus continued this marketing approach when it agreed to purchase control of the C Series program in 2017, renaming it the A220-100 and A220-300. Airbus says it’s a matter of when, not if, it will proceed with the A220-500.
However, at an event hosted by the European Regional Airlines Association, Airbus told regional carriers the A220 is a choice airplane for them if they have ambitions to spread their wings, so to speak.
Benjamin Peiron, VP Single Aisle Marketing for Airbus, told LNA in an interview last month that this message didn’t represent a shift in marketing strategy. “It’s more focused, I would say. If we look at the operator base of A220, it’s about half composed of legacy carriers, [like] Air France, Delta, Air Canada. About one third is from so-called regional airlines, whatever the exact definition is. The rest is hybrid low-cost or equivalent.”
Airbus gets new CEO for Commercial Aircraft; faces supply chain issues, decisions on A220 Stretch, Open Fan engine
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 5, 2026, © Leeham News: The big news at Airbus at the start of this year is the new president and chief executive officer for Airbus Commercial Aircraft: Lars Wagner.
Wagner succeeds an Airbus lifer, Christian Scherer, who retired from his position on Dec. 31. He remains with Airbus for another six months in a transition capacity. Wagner joined Airbus in November to begin a transition period. He previously was the CEO of MTU Aero Engines AG. He joined MTU from Airbus in 2015, holding various positions until he was recruited by Airbus to succeed Scherer.
Lars Wagner took over as CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft on Jan. 1. Credit: Airbus.
Immediate challenges facing Wagner include stubborn supply chain issues as Airbus seeks to ramp up production of the A320 family to 75/mo by 2027; the A220 family to 12/mo this year, the A350 to 12/mo by 2028, and 5/mo A330 by 2029.
Airbus’ supply chain—as with Boeing, Embraer, the engine makers, and the suppliers within their own chain—remains stressed for a variety of reasons.
In fact, quality control issues on A320 fuselage panels that became public on Dec. 1 illustrate just one of the many challenges the 50-year-old Wagner faces. Those problems, and others, prevented Airbus from meeting its delivery target of 823 aircraft for 2025.
Two other major issues facing Wagner, but in the coming near-term years, are whether to stretch the A220-300 into an aircraft the size of the A320neo; and whether to select the GE/Safran CFM International RISE Open Fan engine for the A320 replacement in the coming decade.
Group CEO Guillaume Faury said during the Paris Air Show last year an engine decision will be made by 2027 or 2028, and a program launch will be in 2030. A RISE demonstrator engine is to be mounted on an A380 next year to begin flight testing.
Scherer was the leading proponent of both projects, arguing that a market leader should not wait for the competition to move but rather jump them to stay the leader.
Boeing captures 33% of single-aisle sector, maintains big lead for wide-bodies
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 2, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing’s 2011 decision to launch another derivative of the 737, a slow response to the Airbus A321neo, and the series of crises involving the 737 MAX beginning on March 10, 2019, caused a dramatic drop in market share that places Boeing at a distant No. 2 to Airbus.
The total program orders give Airbus a 54% share of the market for the A320neo family to Boeing’s 33% for the MAX. Adding the A220 into Airbus’ share, the European company has captured 58% of the single aisle market, an analysis of data from the companies as of Dec. 5 reveals.
China’s COMAC C919 captures 7% of the single-aisle market, according to data analyzed from Cirium and other sources. Embraer, with its two-class 100-seat E190-E2 and 120-seat E195-E2, captures a mere 2% of the 100-240 seat sector.
Russia’s Sukhoi MC-21 is not included in this analysis because the market is closed to Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer due to international sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine war.
Mitigating mounting pressures in the global supply chain
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By Charlotte Bailey
Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany. Credit: Leeham News, Charlotte Bailey.
Dec. 22, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: “In today’s aerospace environment, which is marked by workforce challenges, evolving technologies, geopolitical risk, financial pressures, and industry consolidation, our supply chain deserves not just attention but requires true partnership,” says Dr. Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany, Central and Eastern Europe.
“Over the last few years, [the global supply chain] has carried a tremendous load.”
Speaking at December 2025’s Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Haidinger acknowledged that the pressures present throughout a complex ecosystem continue to evolve. Recognizing that “integrating stability across the aerospace value chain is essentially the foundation of our long-term success,” the industry is nevertheless having to place renewed focus on inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty as it looks to bolster its ongoing resilience.
For Boeing, this includes “working more transparently than ever with [its] suppliers” through a monthly supplier brief, sharing details of production plans, key performance indicators, and any changes that could impact planned production. “Transparency builds trust, and trust brings alignment,” he urged.
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 5.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 18, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the energy consumption and range of a typical nine-seater battery-electric commuter aircraft using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM).
We could see that the useful range for this aircraft was short, even when using the full 19,000lb Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) to give the battery the maximum size and using VFR flight rules. Under IFR flight rules, the commuter was not usable with available batteries this side of 2030.
Figure 1. Our battery-electric commuter was similar in design to the Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
When a project discovers these constraints (which often happen several years into the project, as upstarts don’t have competent aircraft performance models that handle energy consumption for different phases of flight), they start looking at Hybrid architectures.
We do the same. Once again, our model will help us to predict performance, range, operational economics, and also production costs (as a hybrid is a more complex aircraft than a battery electric one).
Deutsche Aircraft: supply chain resilience for a new era of production
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By Charlotte Bailey
Deutsche Aircraft is resurrecting the D328 turboprop as the D328eco, but with five other roles collectively called the D328MR (Multi-Role). Credit: Deutsche Aircraft.
Dec. 17, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: As supply chain pressures continue to bite across the aerospace industry, smaller OEMs find themselves presented with additional opportunities. Speaking at December 2025’s Hamburg Aviation Forum, Deutsche Aircraft CEO Nico Neumann elaborated on the challenges ahead as the company prepares to put its re-imagined D328eco into production.
As the German OEM prepares to bring its updated regional turboprop to market (in the form of the D328eco), “the demand is there, but now we have to find ways to deliver,” stated Neumann.
Production of the original 32-passenger D328 ceased in the early 2000s. Deutsche Aircraft acquired the type certificate from former manufacturer Fairchild Dornier in 2006. Only 107 D328s were built, followed by another 110 D328Jets. For the last two decades, it has continued to support between 40-50 328s and around two dozen 328 Jets in service. However, with the OEM anticipating 2027 type certification and entry into service for its upcoming 40-passenger D328eco, manufacturing considerations are already underway.
Electric taxi solution aims for 2027 certification
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By Charlotte Bailey
Dec. 15, 2025, © Leeham News: US startup Green Taxi Aerospace is optimistic about receiving 2027 FAA certification for its all-electric, APU-powered taxi system, a solution it says can save up to 5%-20% of the fuel burn of a short-haul flight. Having submitted its certification plan to the regulator a few weeks ago, the company is currently working with Delta Air Lines and Embraer to launch its retrofitted concept with the E175 regional jet.
Although many aerospace sustainability initiatives are focusing on the efficiencies of engine optimisation, SAF, or alternative propulsion, Green Taxi believes “there is nothing else that can save this [level of fuel reduction] that we can have deployed in under five years.” CEO and founder David Valaer explained, “A jet engine is not designed to run on the ground, where its fuel flow is about 60% at idle.” This additional power on the ground also causes additional wear on the brake components, something he describes as akin to unnecessarily “driving a car with the gas pedal halfway down.”
Valaer appeared at the Sustain Aero Lan Future Aero Festival conference this month in Amsterdam.
Avolon: Looking to long-term eco-aviation investment opportunities
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By Charlotte Bailey
Dec. 11, 2025, © Leeham News: With around 50% of the world’s operational commercial aircraft owned by lessors, companies such as Avolon are keeping
a weather eye on the technologies that could power the fleet of the future.
And as the aircraft purchased today are likely to be operating well into the 2050s, understanding the impact of upcoming sustainability incentives and technologies is already a relevant consideration.