Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Supply chain continues to bedevil Airbus, Boeing
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 8, 2025, © Leeham News: Supply chain difficulties continue to bedevil Airbus and Boeing deliveries this year.
Embraer also has had some impact from supply chain disruptions, but at a much lower rate.
November deliveries by Airbus and Boeing are lower than in September and October. Boeing delivered 53 and 55 aircraft, respectively—but only 42 in November.
Airbus and Boeing are struggling to meet production goals because the supply chain still can’t delivery parts and engines on time. In some cases, quality also is a factor. Photo Credit: Airbus.
Airbus delivered 78 aircraft in October and 73 in September. Defective panels delivered by a supplier, which Airbus did not identify, for the A320 family were discovered, impacting total November deliveries (72) and anticipated December deliveries. Airbus now expects to deliver 790 aircraft this year compared with its original guidance of 823. Airbus delivered 84 aircraft in November last year. Airbus needs to deliver 133 aircraft this month to meet its revised, lower goal.
In addition, delays in receiving interiors, mainly from Collins and Safran but also from others, caused Airbus and Boeing to delay widebody deliveries. Continuing shortages of engines from Pratt & Whitney and CFM (GE and Safran) for the GTF and LEAP impacted Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. PW continues to divert new production GTFs to AOG (Aircraft on Ground) A220s, A320s and E-Jets. A strike at GE interrupted CFM LEAP deliveries.
Airbus and Boeing want to increase production rates next year and in following years. The supply chain is the driving factor.
Aerospace analyst Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets raises some caution from the supply chain in his survey for the second half of 2025. In a report issued on Dec. 4, Herbert wrote, “Just when confidence in the aerospace OE outlook appears to have inflected, we get a reminder from Airbus (ELAC software, metal fuselage panel quality escape) that the industry is still dependent on a relatively fragile supply chain, and we believe the supply chain will remain part of the A&D narrative for the foreseeable future.”
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 4.
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 4, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the aircraft batteries. These are heavy components with very low energy capacity per unit weight.
To illustrate the kind of aircraft-level challenges the batteries pose, we are using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to design a typical alternative-propulsion battery-electric aircraft and then fly it on typical missions.
The aircraft is similar in size to a 9-seat Tecnam P2012 commuter (Figure 1) but optimised for Battery-Electric propulsion.
Figure 1. The Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
The APCM will give us the airframe-level energy consumption for each phase of the flight. Subsequently, we can add the different losses in the propulsion system to determine the energy consumed from the battery and the endurance/range it offers, dependent on VFR or IFR mission reserves.
Airbus rolls out prototype A350F in march toward 2026 certification
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 1, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus rolled its first A350F out of the factory last week. It now moves to another building for the installation of systems and engines. The first flight is planned for the third quarter next year, as a second freighter is completed to begin regimented flight testing.
Airbus hopes to deliver the first freighter in the second half of 2027.
Figure 1. The first Airbus A350F rolled out of the factory this month. Source: Airbus.
Boeing’s new freighter, the 777-8F, is still a “paper” airplane. With 59 orders from six customers, entry into service (EIS) is now estimated for 2029 (some say 2030). Airbus has more than 80 orders from 13 customers. Airbus claims a 58% market share of new freighter orders.
A350F sales fall short of the 120 sales for new-build A300-600Fs, Airbus’ best-selling freighter, most of which went to package operators FedEx and UPS. However, neither has chosen between the A350F or the 777-8F for their next airplanes to replace the decades-old Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) MD-11Fs. The future of these aircraft is uncertain following the Nov. 4 crash of a UPS jet in Louisville (KY).
Within days of the accident, which killed three pilots and 11 people on the ground, Boeing recommended grounding the nearly 60 MD-11 freighters on the US registry for inspections. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) made the grounding mandatory shortly after.
Related Stories
- UPS crash presents potential opportunities for Airbus’ A350F
- Airbus sticks to 2027 EIS for A350F (Briefing pre-Dubai Air Show)
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 3.
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 27, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the electric motor of an electric aircraft, which drives propellers or fans. It’s a component that is straightforward to develop, but the certification requirements for the aircraft and VTOL industry have slowed progress.
Now we look at the component that causes trouble for all alternative propulsion aircraft, except those that burn hydrogen in gas turbine engines: the batteries. Batteries work well in cars, where the requirement for energy capacity relative to weight is much lower and where energy recovery during braking reduces the energy required from the battery.
Figure 1. The battery-electric aircraft that flies operational trials as we speak, the Beta Technologies Alia CX300. Source: Leeham Co.
Aircraft batteries are a heavy component with very low energy storage capacity. Today’s aircraft battery system has about 60 times lower energy density per kg or lb than aircraft fuel.
The hope over the last decade has been that this relationship should improve. It has, it’s gone from about 70 times to 60 times in the last 10 years. This will improve further, the question is if it will continue at the slow pace of the last 10 years or not?
Emirates seeks larger A350, 777 after big Dubai order
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing landed a big order for its 777-9 at the Dubai Air Show last week, valued at $38bn at list prices for 65 airplanes ($575.8m each). Emirates Airline, already Boeing’s largest customer for the airplane, now has 270 777Xs on order. This represents 43% of the firm orders once added to Boeing’s backlog.
Rendering of an Emirates Airline Boeing 777-9. Credit: Boeing.
Emirates simultaneously said it will support a feasibility study to stretch the 777-9 to a larger capacity 777-10. Airline president Tim Clark has been urging Boeing to launch the larger derivative.
Also at the air show, Airbus Commercial airplanes CEO Christian Scherer said Airbus is revisiting a study whether to stretch the A350-1000 (the same size as the Boeing 777-300ER) to a larger “A350-2000” model. This would be the same size as the 777-9.
However, don’t look for Airbus to launch a stretch any time soon, if at all. Airbus previously studied stretching the -1000 and decided the market couldn’t support two airplanes the size of the 777-9. Furthermore, the best target market for these aircraft—the Middle East—already accounts for about 63% of 777X orders before the latest Emirates deal, highly limiting the market potential for an X competitor.
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 2.
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 20, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, we started last week by discussing what happened after the trigger by the Airbus E-fan flight in 2014 and the introduction of the Tesla Model S car two years before. The alternative propulsion aircraft projects that followed had a rocky path. They followed the Gartner Hype-curve, Figure 1.
There were hundreds of projects announced, more or less serious. A few of these came to producing hardware, and flew test flights, then stopped. Most stayed as PowerPoint presentations and fancy renderings, promising capabilities that were not possible to realize. The result was that we passed the Peak of Inflated Expectations and entered the Trough of Disillusionment. Investors fled to AI, and projects froze or stopped.
Figure 1. The Gartner Hype-curve. Source: Gartner Inc.
By 2025, we are in the Disillusionment phase. As there are signs we can now enter a phase of real, sustainable progress, it’s timely to take stock of where we are and what progress we can expect over the next decade.
To understand why progress has been so difficult, after explaining that learnings from Cars are not transferable last week, we start by focusing on two components that we find in every alternative propulsion concept, the Electric Motor and the Battery system. Of the two components, the motor is the most straightforward to develop and certify for an aircraft. Still, we have only limited progress so far, and we detail why in today’s article.
The Battery System is the most challenging component for alternative propulsion aircraft, both in development and in use. We will spend next week’s article detailing why and how it has slowed down progress so far, and how this can change going forward.
Embraer’s possibilities with a stretched C-390
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 17, 2025, © Leeham News: Sales of Embraer’s E195-E2 have taken off this year after a long period of stagnation.
It also appears that its slow-selling military KC-390 tanker-transport is gaining traction as well.
Embraer’s order book for the C-390 is approaching 50, with several NATO countries recently ordering the aircraft. the C-390. Non-NATO orders are also customers. Embraer is pitching several countries for large orders, according to a May analyst report from JP Morgan. Embraer is also pitching the US Air Force for between 20-30 C-390s, LNA is told. If the Pentagon places an order, Embraer pledges to build a US final assembly line.
Orders and possibilities for Embraer’s C-390. Credit: JP Morgan report, May 2025.
Embraer calls the 390 “a meetable combination and ready for the next 50 years,” Marcio Eduardo Monteiro, Embraer’s vice president of Market Intelligence and chief marketing officer, said during the company’s annual investors day in October.
What’s the status of the alternative propulsion projects for air transport?
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 13, 2025, © Leeham News: The interest for new and more environmentally friendly aircraft got underway in 2014, when Airbus flew the battery-electric E-fan demonstrator at the Farnborough Air Show in July, Figure 1.
The car revolution to battery-electric cars had taken off two years earlier, when Tesla introduced the Model S sedan with elegant styling and very good performance and economy for a family car (Figure 1).
Figure 1. The battery-electric aircraft demonstrator and the car that started it all. Credit: Airbus and Tesla Inc.
Tesla cars had proven that electric cars could match and even outpace combustion-engine cars in performance and operational costs, though not in driving range. But range was a matter of battery capacity development, and hopes were high for a similar situation and development for aircraft.
As is the case with almost every technological leap, the progression of alternative propulsion aircraft projects followed the Gartner Technology Hype curve (Figure 2).
Figure 2. The Gartner Hype Curve for alternative propulsion aircraft. Credit: Gartner and Leeham Co.
The start was around 2015, passing the Peak of Inflated Expectations around 2020. In the 11 years since 2014, we’ve had hundreds of entrepreneur-driven projects declare they will make environmentally friendly aircraft and airliners a reality.
Nothing useful has come out of these projects, so today, we are passing the Trough of Disillusionment. Investors have stopped funding alternative propulsion startups as these have not produced useful air transport. The result is a mass death of projects, most silently, some more openly.
The core of the remaining projects are run by experienced teams with solid aeronautical knowledge. These are now passing into the Slope of Enlightenment and will make real progress. Given that we are now entering a more productive phase, we take stock of these developments and their programs.
To help the analysis, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model, APCM, to show what the challenges are and how alternative propulsion can address these challenges.
Boeing breaks ground to double 787 FAL capacity; analysis of orders/options
Subscription Required
By the Leeham News Team
Nov. 10, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing on Friday broke ground at its Charleston (SC) 787 production campus for a second final assembly line (FAL) building to meeting growing demand for the airplane.
Boeing’s current footprint in Charleston (SC). (Note the airplane-shaped park in the upper left.) Credit: Boeing.
Boeing has announced more than 300 orders for the 787-9 and 787-10 this year. There are now more than 1,000 787s in backlog. More than 1,200 have been delivered.
There are hundreds of more options for the airplane and even more Letters of Intent.
Boeing will construct a building, left, of 1.2m sf–the size of the Composite Wing Center in Everett (WA), doubling 787 assembly capacity. Credit: Boeing.
Boeing currently is assembling seven aircraft a month at the plant, its peak at this facility before the COVID pandemic began in March 2020. The Charleston facility then matched the 7/mo also being assembled at Boeing’s Everett plant. Following COVID and the virtual halt in production during much of the two year effects of the pandemic, Boeing consolidated all 787 production in Charleston.
The facility currently has a maximum capacity of 10/mo. CEO Kelly Ortberg said on the 3Q2025 earnings call that that the expansion will double the capacity.
“We’re going to double the…manufacturing footprint. We don’t need double, but it also gives us a lot more flexibility for some storage space as well. We think that the market demand will allow us to get to rates in the teens, and that’s what we’re focused on,” Ortberg said on the call. The plant will open in 2028, according to current planning.
LNA has analyzed Boeing’s current 787 backlog, using the database dated Oct. 7 from Cirium. The database trails Boeing’s website backlog of 1,048 as of Oct. 31, showing a firm order backlog of 997. However, Cirium’s data also shows Boeing’s Options and Letters of Intent. Delivery years are shown in all four categories.
Using this data, LNA plotted the entire delivery stream, extending to 2043.
Embraer ponders mainline jet–but this must compete internally with other projects
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Embraer Group CEO Francisco Gomes Neto. Credit: Embraer.
Nov. 6, 2025, © Leeham News: When it comes to new airplane development, Airbus and Boeing get all the headlines.
The world’s third-largest airplane manufacturer, Embraer, gets overlooked. Compared with the Big Two, Embraer is small potatoes—and the market for which it is best known, its E-Jet, is primarily associated with regional airlines flown by major carriers, not the big airlines.
Given the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing, their delivery delays, the latter’s groundings, production, safety and quality concerns, many urged Embraer to move up to the mainline jet sector. Competing with Airbus and Boeing would be daunting enough. There is also China’s emerging COMAC to consider. COMAC may be struggling today for geopolitical and industrial reasons, but commercial airplane programs are 40-50-year endeavors. Few doubt that COMAC will become a force in the future.
Embraer acknowledges it is considering developing an airplane with 180-240 seats, presumed to be a single-aisle aircraft. However, this is far from the only possibility of a new program. In addition to the risks and rewards of taking on the Big Two and COMAC, here’s what else Embraer is up to. Studies are also underway for:
- A larger business jet;
- A smaller commercial jet;
- Continued research and development of its Energia environmental aircraft initiative; and
- The final stretch for bringing the EVE eVTOL to market.
There’s only so much money to go around. Development of a mainline jet must compete internally for a piece of this pie.
Embraer developed more than 20 new aircraft designs since 2000, a record unmatched by other manufacturers. Credit: Embraer.
Embraer has designed, developed, and produced more than 20 aircraft since 2000. Most of them required commercial certification.
Embraer’s largest aircraft are the E195-E2 and the KC-390 tanker-transport. Dimensionally, these are about the same size as the Boeing 737-8 and Airbus A320neo.