Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus gets new CEO for Commercial Aircraft; faces supply chain issues, decisions on A220 Stretch, Open Fan engine
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 5, 2026, © Leeham News: The big news at Airbus at the start of this year is the new president and chief executive officer for Airbus Commercial Aircraft: Lars Wagner.
Wagner succeeds an Airbus lifer, Christian Scherer, who retired from his position on Dec. 31. He remains with Airbus for another six months in a transition capacity. Wagner joined Airbus in November to begin a transition period. He previously was the CEO of MTU Aero Engines AG. He joined MTU from Airbus in 2015, holding various positions until he was recruited by Airbus to succeed Scherer.
Lars Wagner took over as CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft on Jan. 1. Credit: Airbus.
Immediate challenges facing Wagner include stubborn supply chain issues as Airbus seeks to ramp up production of the A320 family to 75/mo by 2027; the A220 family to 12/mo this year, the A350 to 12/mo by 2028, and 5/mo A330 by 2029.
Airbus’ supply chain—as with Boeing, Embraer, the engine makers, and the suppliers within their own chain—remains stressed for a variety of reasons.
In fact, quality control issues on A320 fuselage panels that became public on Dec. 1 illustrate just one of the many challenges the 50-year-old Wagner faces. Those problems, and others, prevented Airbus from meeting its delivery target of 823 aircraft for 2025.
Two other major issues facing Wagner, but in the coming near-term years, are whether to stretch the A220-300 into an aircraft the size of the A320neo; and whether to select the GE/Safran CFM International RISE Open Fan engine for the A320 replacement in the coming decade.
Group CEO Guillaume Faury said during the Paris Air Show last year an engine decision will be made by 2027 or 2028, and a program launch will be in 2030. A RISE demonstrator engine is to be mounted on an A380 next year to begin flight testing.
Scherer was the leading proponent of both projects, arguing that a market leader should not wait for the competition to move but rather jump them to stay the leader.
Boeing captures 33% of single-aisle sector, maintains big lead for wide-bodies
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 2, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing’s 2011 decision to launch another derivative of the 737, a slow response to the Airbus A321neo, and the series of crises involving the 737 MAX beginning on March 10, 2019, caused a dramatic drop in market share that places Boeing at a distant No. 2 to Airbus.
The total program orders give Airbus a 54% share of the market for the A320neo family to Boeing’s 33% for the MAX. Adding the A220 into Airbus’ share, the European company has captured 58% of the single aisle market, an analysis of data from the companies as of Dec. 5 reveals.
China’s COMAC C919 captures 7% of the single-aisle market, according to data analyzed from Cirium and other sources. Embraer, with its two-class 100-seat E190-E2 and 120-seat E195-E2, captures a mere 2% of the 100-240 seat sector.
Russia’s Sukhoi MC-21 is not included in this analysis because the market is closed to Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer due to international sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine war.
Mitigating mounting pressures in the global supply chain
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By Charlotte Bailey
Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany. Credit: Leeham News, Charlotte Bailey.
Dec. 22, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: “In today’s aerospace environment, which is marked by workforce challenges, evolving technologies, geopolitical risk, financial pressures, and industry consolidation, our supply chain deserves not just attention but requires true partnership,” says Dr. Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing Germany, Central and Eastern Europe.
“Over the last few years, [the global supply chain] has carried a tremendous load.”
Speaking at December 2025’s Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Haidinger acknowledged that the pressures present throughout a complex ecosystem continue to evolve. Recognizing that “integrating stability across the aerospace value chain is essentially the foundation of our long-term success,” the industry is nevertheless having to place renewed focus on inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty as it looks to bolster its ongoing resilience.
For Boeing, this includes “working more transparently than ever with [its] suppliers” through a monthly supplier brief, sharing details of production plans, key performance indicators, and any changes that could impact planned production. “Transparency builds trust, and trust brings alignment,” he urged.
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 5.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 18, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the energy consumption and range of a typical nine-seater battery-electric commuter aircraft using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM).
We could see that the useful range for this aircraft was short, even when using the full 19,000lb Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) to give the battery the maximum size and using VFR flight rules. Under IFR flight rules, the commuter was not usable with available batteries this side of 2030.
Figure 1. Our battery-electric commuter was similar in design to the Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
When a project discovers these constraints (which often happen several years into the project, as upstarts don’t have competent aircraft performance models that handle energy consumption for different phases of flight), they start looking at Hybrid architectures.
We do the same. Once again, our model will help us to predict performance, range, operational economics, and also production costs (as a hybrid is a more complex aircraft than a battery electric one).
Deutsche Aircraft: supply chain resilience for a new era of production
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By Charlotte Bailey
Deutsche Aircraft is resurrecting the D328 turboprop as the D328eco, but with five other roles collectively called the D328MR (Multi-Role). Credit: Deutsche Aircraft.
Dec. 17, 2025, © Leeham News, Hamburg: As supply chain pressures continue to bite across the aerospace industry, smaller OEMs find themselves presented with additional opportunities. Speaking at December 2025’s Hamburg Aviation Forum, Deutsche Aircraft CEO Nico Neumann elaborated on the challenges ahead as the company prepares to put its re-imagined D328eco into production.
As the German OEM prepares to bring its updated regional turboprop to market (in the form of the D328eco), “the demand is there, but now we have to find ways to deliver,” stated Neumann.
Production of the original 32-passenger D328 ceased in the early 2000s. Deutsche Aircraft acquired the type certificate from former manufacturer Fairchild Dornier in 2006. Only 107 D328s were built, followed by another 110 D328Jets. For the last two decades, it has continued to support between 40-50 328s and around two dozen 328 Jets in service. However, with the OEM anticipating 2027 type certification and entry into service for its upcoming 40-passenger D328eco, manufacturing considerations are already underway.
Electric taxi solution aims for 2027 certification
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By Charlotte Bailey
Dec. 15, 2025, © Leeham News: US startup Green Taxi Aerospace is optimistic about receiving 2027 FAA certification for its all-electric, APU-powered taxi system, a solution it says can save up to 5%-20% of the fuel burn of a short-haul flight. Having submitted its certification plan to the regulator a few weeks ago, the company is currently working with Delta Air Lines and Embraer to launch its retrofitted concept with the E175 regional jet.
Although many aerospace sustainability initiatives are focusing on the efficiencies of engine optimisation, SAF, or alternative propulsion, Green Taxi believes “there is nothing else that can save this [level of fuel reduction] that we can have deployed in under five years.” CEO and founder David Valaer explained, “A jet engine is not designed to run on the ground, where its fuel flow is about 60% at idle.” This additional power on the ground also causes additional wear on the brake components, something he describes as akin to unnecessarily “driving a car with the gas pedal halfway down.”
Valaer appeared at the Sustain Aero Lan Future Aero Festival conference this month in Amsterdam.
Avolon: Looking to long-term eco-aviation investment opportunities
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By Charlotte Bailey
Dec. 11, 2025, © Leeham News: With around 50% of the world’s operational commercial aircraft owned by lessors, companies such as Avolon are keeping
a weather eye on the technologies that could power the fleet of the future.
And as the aircraft purchased today are likely to be operating well into the 2050s, understanding the impact of upcoming sustainability incentives and technologies is already a relevant consideration.
Supply chain continues to bedevil Airbus, Boeing
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 8, 2025, © Leeham News: Supply chain difficulties continue to bedevil Airbus and Boeing deliveries this year.
Embraer also has had some impact from supply chain disruptions, but at a much lower rate.
November deliveries by Airbus and Boeing are lower than in September and October. Boeing delivered 53 and 55 aircraft, respectively—but only 42 in November.
Airbus and Boeing are struggling to meet production goals because the supply chain still can’t delivery parts and engines on time. In some cases, quality also is a factor. Photo Credit: Airbus.
Airbus delivered 78 aircraft in October and 73 in September. Defective panels delivered by a supplier, which Airbus did not identify, for the A320 family were discovered, impacting total November deliveries (72) and anticipated December deliveries. Airbus now expects to deliver 790 aircraft this year compared with its original guidance of 823. Airbus delivered 84 aircraft in November last year. Airbus needs to deliver 133 aircraft this month to meet its revised, lower goal.
In addition, delays in receiving interiors, mainly from Collins and Safran but also from others, caused Airbus and Boeing to delay widebody deliveries. Continuing shortages of engines from Pratt & Whitney and CFM (GE and Safran) for the GTF and LEAP impacted Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. PW continues to divert new production GTFs to AOG (Aircraft on Ground) A220s, A320s and E-Jets. A strike at GE interrupted CFM LEAP deliveries.
Airbus and Boeing want to increase production rates next year and in following years. The supply chain is the driving factor.
Aerospace analyst Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets raises some caution from the supply chain in his survey for the second half of 2025. In a report issued on Dec. 4, Herbert wrote, “Just when confidence in the aerospace OE outlook appears to have inflected, we get a reminder from Airbus (ELAC software, metal fuselage panel quality escape) that the industry is still dependent on a relatively fragile supply chain, and we believe the supply chain will remain part of the A&D narrative for the foreseeable future.”
The state of alternative propulsion aircraft? Part 4.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 4, 2025, © Leeham News: In our series about alternative propulsion aircraft, last week we looked at the aircraft batteries. These are heavy components with very low energy capacity per unit weight.
To illustrate the kind of aircraft-level challenges the batteries pose, we are using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to design a typical alternative-propulsion battery-electric aircraft and then fly it on typical missions.
The aircraft is similar in size to a 9-seat Tecnam P2012 commuter (Figure 1) but optimised for Battery-Electric propulsion.
Figure 1. The Tecnam P2012 nine-seater commuter. Source: Tecnam.
The APCM will give us the airframe-level energy consumption for each phase of the flight. Subsequently, we can add the different losses in the propulsion system to determine the energy consumed from the battery and the endurance/range it offers, dependent on VFR or IFR mission reserves.
Airbus rolls out prototype A350F in march toward 2026 certification
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 1, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus rolled its first A350F out of the factory last week. It now moves to another building for the installation of systems and engines. The first flight is planned for the third quarter next year, as a second freighter is completed to begin regimented flight testing.
Airbus hopes to deliver the first freighter in the second half of 2027.
Figure 1. The first Airbus A350F rolled out of the factory this month. Source: Airbus.
Boeing’s new freighter, the 777-8F, is still a “paper” airplane. With 59 orders from six customers, entry into service (EIS) is now estimated for 2029 (some say 2030). Airbus has more than 80 orders from 13 customers. Airbus claims a 58% market share of new freighter orders.
A350F sales fall short of the 120 sales for new-build A300-600Fs, Airbus’ best-selling freighter, most of which went to package operators FedEx and UPS. However, neither has chosen between the A350F or the 777-8F for their next airplanes to replace the decades-old Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) MD-11Fs. The future of these aircraft is uncertain following the Nov. 4 crash of a UPS jet in Louisville (KY).
Within days of the accident, which killed three pilots and 11 people on the ground, Boeing recommended grounding the nearly 60 MD-11 freighters on the US registry for inspections. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) made the grounding mandatory shortly after.
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