Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Embraer focuses on production, supply chain efficiency, cost reduction
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Like Airbus, Boeing, and the engine manufacturers, Embraer is devoting millions of dollars to making its production more efficient and less costly. It’s also working with its supply chain to achieve similar results and fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Francisco Gomes Neto, CEO of Embraer Group. Credit: Embraer.
Group CEO Francisco Gomes Neto broadly outlined Embraer’s approach during its annual investors day in New York City.
Like Airbus and Boeing, Embraer has been affected (though not to the same degree) with some delivery delays. Some are due to engine issues with the Pratt & Whitney GTF powering the E2 jets. Supply chain interruptions are also a factor. Traveled work is another.
“Production leveling will allow us to better distribute the production and the deliveries throughout the year,” Gomes Neto said. He said there have been “impressive results” in reducing traveled work and increasing production capacity.
Another initiative, which he calls “very important,” is reducing the production lead time of our aircraft. “Despite the challenge we still have in the supply chain, we have been able to achieve impressive results, promising results,” Gomes Neto said.
Credit: Embraer.
Gomes Neto said that Embraer now produces the Praetor business jet 40% faster than it did four years ago. The KC-390 is produced 33% faster, and the E-Jets are 27% faster.
He added that the company is undertaking initiatives to increase production, boost productivity, and further reduce wait times.
Airbus’ A321neo, A321LR or A321XLR? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
October 30, 2025, © Leeham News: We went through the creation of Airbus’s A321 in the first article, and why its initial sales were slow, and why the sales only picked up after the launch of the A320/A321neo models, and how it came to dominate sales and deliveries in the A320 family after COVID.
For an airline, it’s now a matter of what mix of the different A321neo variants to buy. Is there a large penalty to “misuse” an A321LR or XLR on shorter routes, or can a fleet of the more expensive and heavier models be used on shorter routes to cover gaps and increase their daily utilization without a cost penalty?
To get the answer, we look into the different A321neo variants and compare their capacities and operational costs in this article using the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model, APCM.
Figure 1. The A321neo with the new Cabin Flex door configuration from 2Q2018 deliveries. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A321neo is the star in the Airbus lineup. It lacks competition for at least another year, and its two margin-rich variants, the A321LR and XLR, the Boeing 737 MAX 10 can’t compete with once it gets certified.
- There are extra costs, however, to operate these more capable types. It means these shouldn’t be “misused” too much on normal routes.
Boeing sees no new single aisle plane until 2040
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Recent reports that Boeing is working on a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737 MAX and a New Midmarket Airplane (NMA), or a version of it, are fundamentally true but vastly overhyped. At a conference in Prague earlier this month, Boeing’s Darren Hulst put a damper on this speculation, but said only that Boeing was “not close” to launching a new airplane.
Concept of the Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft. Credit: Leeham News.
Boeing hasn’t publicly put any dates on entries into service of its new airplanes, whatever these may be. But internally, Boeing is of the belief that its 737 replacement won’t enter service before 2040.
This doesn’t mean that Boeing’s Product Development unit isn’t working on new airplanes in the background. The company must be ready to respond in case some other OEM introduces a new airplane before then.
Airbus’ CEO Guillaume Faury publicly said several times that it will introduce a replacement for the A320neo in 2038. But there are some within Airbus who dispute this, concluding that new technology needed to justify a new airplane won’t be ready until the 2040 decade.
The driving factor is, of course, new engines. But as LNA’s 13-part series about new airplane technology and 7-part series about new production technologies demonstrate, engines aren’t the only technology needed. However, without significant advances in engine technology, none of the others is sufficient to justify a new airplane.
Airbus’ A321neo, A321LR or A321XLR?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
October 23, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus’s A321 was launched in November 1988, around the time the original A320 entered service. Delivery to the first A321 customer, Lufthansa, was in January 1994.
The initial sales of the A321 were modest, with deliveries of the variant languishing between one and three aircraft per month for the first ten years. It wasn’t until after the launch of the A320neo/A321neo in 2010 that sales climbed to 10 per month, 20 years after the first delivery. This shall be compared to the 30 per month after another 10 years in 2024.
The smaller A320 was at 24 per month by 2010 and then touched 35 per month in 2019 before it started to cede the market to the A321neo after COVID. Deliveries in 2024 were at 19 per month.
With the A321 dominating Airbus deliveries from 2022, the question is: which variant of the A321 is suitable for what routes? Does a “misuse” of an A321LR or XLR on short to medium routes mean an operational cost loss compared to a standard A321neo?
We look into the different A321neo variants and compare their capacities and operational costs in this series.
Summary:
- The Airbus A321 started life with low sales, the market preferring the smaller A319 and A320. One of the reasons was the large jump in capacity between the A320 and A321, more than 40 seats.
- By the introduction of the A320neo series, the market had developed to higher capacities. After COVID, the A321neo took over as the dominant A320 range variant.
Airbus’ A220 conundrum
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 20, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing face a challenge that is good news and bad news.
The Airbus A220-300 is essentially an orphan. An “A220-500” is needed, but so is a higher production rate, and sales of the -300 don’t support this. Credit: Airbus.
The good news: Demand for most of their airplanes is high. The bad news: neither can meet the demand. Delivery slots are sold out for the A320neo and 737 MAX families into the next decade. Widebody delivery positions are also increasingly scarce. And the supply chain continues to fall short, while engine makers still struggle to deliver durable and reliable products.
Airbus has another problem that’s not so good news. Demand for its smallest airplane, the A220, has stalled. This is due in part to ongoing troubles with the Pratt & Whitney GTF engines. There are nearly 80 aircraft out of a delivered fleet of 451—an 18% AOG (aircraft on ground) rate–but PW says it’s responsible for only about 32 of the AOGs, or roughly 7% of the total fleet of aircraft. A handful of A220s have been scrapped to monetize for parts rather than be stored indefinitely, running up storage fees, awaiting new engines.
Another reason sales have stalled: The A220 is essentially an orphan airplane. Only 118 A220-100s have been ordered out of 941, or 12.5%. Some key airlines, such as Air France and Delta Air Lines, want a stretched version, commonly called the A220-500 (a name not adopted by Airbus). But adding to the family requires achieving profitability for the program. Airbus hasn’t accomplished this goal. To do so, suppliers must cut their prices, and the production rate must jump from the current 6-8 a month to 14/mo—a tall order given the lack of orders and the A220-300’s orphan status.
It’s a classic chicken-and-egg conundrum.
GE advances on RISE’s dust ingestion, installation testing
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By Scott Hamilton
Arjan Hageman. Credit: GE Aerospace.
Oct. 16, 2025, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace has begun dust ingestion testing of its RISE Open Fan engine, the earliest it’s ever done so. The company told the media in advance of the Paris Air Show that this was coming—and now it’s here.
This is much more significant than the layman would understand. Colloquially, there’s dust and then there’s dust.
Dust in especially harsh environments, such as the Middle East and India, has played havoc on jet engines for decades. Dust from these areas has its own properties. In addition, dust in India is found in humid environments. Dust in the Middle East is in a dry climate.
Arjan Hegeman, vice president for the future of flight at GE, said in an interview with LNA last week that lessons learned from durability issues from its engines (as well as Pratt & Whitney’s GTF) contributed to the current, early effort to advance dust ingestion testing for the RISE.
The RISE Open Fan is GE’s primary bet for an engine for the future for the next generation of single-aisle airplanes—replacements for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families. GE exclusively powers the MAX and has a majority share on the A320.
“We just kicked off our dust engine on Compact Core Technologies. We just recently shared that in an investor review earlier this week as well,” Hegeman said.
“It’s the earliest we’ve ever done this type of testing. We’re priding ourselves on how we do many more durability-type tests, like dust ingestion, which basically means you run 3,000 endurance cycles, which emulates each cycle as a flight of the engine.”
Endurance and reliability of engines from GE, PW, and Rolls-Royce have been troublesome since each company introduced engines powering today’s latest generation of airplanes.
Heading toward year-end, Airbus maintains lead in narrowbody orders but Boeing commands the widebody sector
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 13, 2025, © Leeham News: As the commercial airliner industry sprints to the end of this year, Boeing remains the champion in the widebody, twin-aisle sector with a commanding lead over Airbus.
Figure 1
But the European manufacturer is the blow-out victor in the more important narrowbody, single-aisle sector where between 80% and 85% of the sales are made.
Boeing has 59% of the widebody backlog to Airbus’ 41%. These are the only two companies competing in this sector.
In the more crowded single-aisle 125-240 seat sector, Airbus has a 54% market share to Boeing’s 35%. China’s COMAC has a 10% share of the backlog, although its production and delivery performance is poor. Embraer’s E195-E2, has a 1% share of this sector. The E195-E2 is a 144-seat single class and 133-seat two-class airplane.
Figure 2
Embraer’s smaller E190-E2 competes with the Airbus A220-100. Airbus has 54% of this 100-125 seat sector with 45 planes in backlog to EMB’s 39 planes. Embraer’s smallest jet, the 76-seat E175-E1, has no competition. The 175 has a backlog of 208 aircraft.
Airbus Balances Automation and Airmanship
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By Chris Sloan
Oct. 09, 2025, © Leeham News: Automation, advances in the prospect and single-pilot operation, and overall aircraft safety are great for the airline and commercial aerospace industries.
But the downside is that pilot skills are subject to deterioration. Hands-on experience and skills become necessary in an instant when emergencies begin to pile up.
US Airways flight 1549, the so-called Miracle in the Hudson, is one example where advanced design in flight envelope protection in the Airbus A320, combined with the flying skills of the pilots, led to a successful water ditching alongside New York City.
Qantas Airways flight 32, an Airbus A380, suffered an uncontained engine failure that triggered more than 100 identified faults in the advanced computer system. However, the five pilots in the cockpit required experienced thinking and top-flight skills to land the airplane safely.
These are just two examples of technical advances combining with pilot skills for the ultimate safety of the airplane.
Airbus acknowledges the tension between automation, computer advancements, and the necessity for pilots to maintain hands-on flying skills.
FAA begins to ease restrictions on Boeing
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Part 2 of 2
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 06, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing is making progress toward its recovery from six years of back-to-back-to-back crises, but slow certification of three airplane derivatives has been a major roadblock. Last month, the Federal Aviation Administration began to ever so slowly ease its strict oversight of Boeing.
The first Boeing 777-9 taxis out for its first flight of the program. Credit: Leeham News.
Certification of the 777X requires a series of flight tests specific to what’s called Type Inspection Authorization (TIA), issued by the Federal Aviation Administration. Typically, TIA is a one-step authorization. The FAA is granting this in stages, to the frustration of Boeing and CEO Kelly Ortberg.
Related Story
Certification of the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 derivatives was paused during the 21-month grounding of the MAX 8 and MAX 9 following the March 10, 2019, crash of the second MAX 8 within five months. The two accidents killed 346 people; the root cause was traced to a design flaw within software that pushed the nose of the MAX down in the event a potential stall was detected.
During the lengthy investigation of the MAX crashes, further flaws of a less serious nature were identified. The FAA required these to be fixed before the 7s and 10s are certified. This process has not gone smoothly. According to information provided to LNA, the unintended consequences of new legislation adopted by Congress during the MAX investigation appear to be causing repeated delays in certifying the MAX in addition to some nettlesome technical issues.
Additionally, action by the Trump Administration to eliminate jobs across the government, including the FAA, as part of its Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) killed some jobs tied to aircraft certification.
To summarize:
Staffing shortages affect Air Traffic Control, NOTAMS, updates–and Boeing
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Part 1 of 2 Parts
By Colleen Mondor
Oct. 2, 2025, © Leeham News: The Trump Administration’s drive to cut employment in the federal government slashed numbers across virtually every agency and department.
But for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which has perpetually been understaffed across its air traffic controllers (ATC), technicians, and certification units, the impact exacerbates an already tenuous situation.
Credit: Federal Aviation Administration.
For airlines and passengers, delays have skyrocketed at key airports, followed by a surge in cancellations. Operating costs skyrocketed for the airlines as scores or aircraft sat on taxiways waiting to take off or backed up on the tarmac awaiting a gate occupied by airplanes that couldn’t take off.
Runway incursions have increased, as have near-collisions in mid-air.
Shortages of aircraft certification employees at the FAA have slowed Boeing’s recovery from six years of sorting out its crises and “ticketing authority” as the FAA scrutinizes the company. FAA certification of the Airbus A321XLR was slow, adding to the one-year delay of its entry into service.
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Special Note
The US federal government shut down at midnight on Sept. 30 when Congress failed to pass a Continuing Resolution to fund the government. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) laid off more than 11,000 employees. Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) has been under strict FAA scrutiny since March 2019, notably for 737 MAX production, safety, and quality control issues. The FAA revoked BCA’s ability to certify its new airplanes as airworthy before delivery to customers, assuming this responsibility.
On Sept. 29, the FAA partially returned this authority to Boeing, which now may certify the airplanes on a weekly alternating schedule. With the government shutdown, the question of FAA’s oversight and certification of Boeing airplanes arises. Boeing declined comment, but Boeing has told customers that at least for now, production rates, certification, and FAA oversight activities will continue uninterrupted. This may change if the government shutdown is prolonged.
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Staffing shortages among controllers at Newark Liberty International Airport will cause existing cuts in flight service to be extended through October 2026, Reuters reported on Sept. 25.
This was the latest in a litany of news articles highlighting staffing issues within the nation’s air traffic control system. The Washington Post reported in July that nearly 20% of recruits at the FAA training academy failed to complete the training program, contributing to shortages. It then followed up on Sept. 21 that the academy was struggling with instructor shortages.
USA Today asked in May, “Why air traffic control is under so much stress”, while NPR spoke with controllers in July and declared the “…push to modernize equipment won’t fix deeper problems.”