Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 24. Parallel Activities
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca
October 8, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we described how we conduct the Certification Flight Test together with the Regulator.
Before we describe our path to completion of our flight test program, we need to pause for a minute and discuss some of the other parallel activities that need to come together prior to issues of Type Certificate and roll out of production aircraft.
In article 3 you’ll recall we reviewed the breadth of regulatory involvement in aircraft development. While the work on the design and initial airworthiness (on the left in the chart below) is critical, it’s not the only set of rules we need to be working with if we want to achieve a successful Entry Into Service (EIS) of the aircraft.
In Part 21 of our series we already discussed the preparation of the production system. In the next few articles, we’ll be discussing three additional areas of work that we’re engaged in that must all come together at the program’s completion:
Figure 1. The Wymann Shell FAR Chart explains how 14 CFR Parts relate to each other. Source: FAA. Click to read easier.
Is the cargo capacity deciding the airliner variant? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 7, 2021, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we could see today’s high cargo prices can motivate a 325 seat Airbus A350-900 even though the passenger load on the routes would point to a 240 seat A330-800.
How far does this “paying for a larger aircraft with belly cargo” paradigm go? Today we see if Airbus’ largest aircraft, the A350-1000, can generate the margins of the A350-900 on freight-rich routes. Can an airline that has an A350-900 sized passenger demand for such routes go to an A350-1000 instead?
Summary
- The increased yields for air cargo leads to surprising effects. Oversized passenger models can survive the passenger drought on today’s international routes as long as it’s a route with good freight demand.
Pontifications: Upping the game in eco Aviation
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: The pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the commercial aviation industry continues to increase.
Two weeks ago, Airbus hosted a day-and-a-half media event promoting its vision of moving toward decarbonizing aviation.
Boeing and Alaska Airlines last week hosted media for a touchy-feely event following up on the announcement in June by Boeing and Alaska of its joint ecoD (as Boeing calls it) program.
Boeing in October outlined progress of its ecoDemonstrator program, at the time with Etihad Airways as the partner. A 787-10 was used at that stage.
Mike Sinnett, Boeing VP of Product Development, said last week that the Alaska 737-9 MAX that is the focus of the current ecoD effort includes several ideas that would not make it into test on a stand-alone basis. But as part of a larger effort, little things that cumulatively can reduce drag and therefore fuel burn can be tested.
IATA AGM: Airplanes, engines SAF capable coming; feedstock lags by years
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Oct. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: Engine and airframe makers are well on their way to becoming fully capable of using Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). But the industries providing SAF are way behind in meeting the potential demand.
Rick Deurloo of Pratt & Whitney
Rick Deurloo. Sr. VP & Chief Commercial Officer at Pratt & Whitney said one major US airline would use all currently available SAF in one day.
“The challenge will be the feedstock. How do we grow that technology or grow that ability to provide the feedstock so when we do have 100% SAF-capable aircraft and engines, we have the energy to go with it?” Deurloo said in an interview with LNA at the IATA AGM this week in Boston.
Airlines around the world are partnering with different companies to develop this technology, he said.
PW is already 50% capable and has a “clear path” to getting 100% capable within two years. But there is not enough feedstock in the world today do fill the 50% capability.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 23. Certification Flight tests
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
October 1, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we described how we produced our Flight Test Articles, FTAs, and how the company flight tests are made.
Now we have finished the Company flight tests and made any modifications required to the FTAs so we can apply for Certification Flight tests with the regulator.
Figure 1. VMU flight test with the Airbus A350. Source: Airbus video.
Is the cargo capacity deciding the airliner variant? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 30, 2021, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we put the question: Has the increased cargo pricing started to affect the choice of airliner variant?
We analyzed Boeing’s 787-8 and -9 for margin generation when flying at low post-pandemic load factors. We found the 787-9 is the more attractive alternative as long as air cargo pricing stays high, even though the passenger load factor on the route would motivate a 787-8. The revenue from under the floor cargo compensates for a low load factor in the cabin. Now we subject the Airbus range; A330neo, and A350 to the same analysis.
Summary
- The trend from last week continues. Variants with high cargo capacity can sustain lower load factors while generating the same margin on routes.
- This article develops the passenger load factors where the margin generation is the same between Airbus widebodies.
Airbus begins “stuffing” A220 to speed assembly, cut costs
By Scott Hamilton
Florent Massou. Photo: Airbus.
Sept. 28, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus is streamlining some of its production of the A220 to reduce costs and the time to assemble the airplanes at its Montreal and Mobile plants.
Florent Massou, the SVP and Head of the A220 program, told LNA the company wants to shave 50% of the final assembly time for the A220. There will be an unrevealed cost reduction, which Massou declined to reveal. But he said it isn’t a one-for-one cost reduction.
Final assembly typically runs 5% to 8% of the total cost of the airplane, according to Boeing’s touch labor union, the IAM 751. Whether this equates to the A220, which began life as a Bombardier aircraft, is unknown.
Airbus’ TwoTwenty, its first real business jet
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 28, 2021, ©. Leeham News: When Airbus got the A220 airliner series from Bombardier, it also got the base for a competitive business jet.
Airbus, like Boeing, has produced Corporate Jets under its ACJ (Airbus Corporate Jets) since 1997 by converting its passenger A319, A320, A330, and A350 to one-off jets for Corporations, States, or wealthy individuals.
With the business jet based on A220-100, this changes. It’s no longer a one-off production but a fully-fledged Bizjet like the Gulfstream 650/700 or Bombardier Global 6500/7500, produced in series and with a semi-custom modular interior.
Figure 1. The Airbus TwoTwenty, the first real Airbus Bizjet. Source: Airbus.
777 freighter conversion methods and their differences
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By the Leeham News Team
Sept. 27, 2021, © Leeham News: The race for the Boeing 777 P2F Freighter conversion is on.
IAI Bedek Big Twin Boeing 777-300ERF passenger-to-freighter conversion. Lessor GECAS, now part of AerCap, was the launch customer of this, the first 777 P2F program. Source: IAI Bedek.
There are three companies in various stages of development. The first, IAI Bedek, announced its conversion process in 2019 with an order from the giant lessor, GECAS (now a part of AerCap). The second is a program driven by Nair Werx of Wichita (KS) and marketed by Sequoia Aircraft Conversions. The third is the recently announced Mammoth Freighter Conversions of California and Florida.
IAI has cut metal. Mammoth is test-flying a 777-200LR for stress and technical analysis. NAIR is in the pre-production Engineering Phase.
Let’s take a moment to understand the process of a P2F Conversion.