Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
Boeing wins first day with big order at Dubai Air Show
Nov. 12, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In a stinging defeat for Airbus, Boeing won an order for 40 787-10s from Emirates Airline.
Airbus competed for the deal with the A350-900. Emirates previously canceled an order for 50 A350-900s and 20 A350-1000s, an embarrassment at the time. Losing this order was largely expected, but based on comments from airline officials earlier this year, it seemed that the order would be put off until next year.
Bloomberg News has this devastating report.
Unreported from this order is that it seems to indicate a changing strategy for Emirates.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft drag reduction, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 27, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In this and the following Corners, we will review the competition for first manned flight between Samuel Langley, high ranking scientist of Allegheny Observatory in Pittsburgh, and the Wright Brothers, bicycle manufacturers in Dayton, (OH).
We described in the last Corner how Langley researched airfoil characteristics with a giant whirling arm, built beside the Observatory. The Wright Brothers went another route; they built a wind tunnel in their workshop.
Figure 1. The wind tunnel built by the Wright Brothers. Source: Wikipedia.
Airbus’ A330 or Boeing’s 787 for LCC long haul?
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
November 09, 2017, © Leeham Co.: International Airlines Group’s (IAG) CEO, Willy Walsh, said in an Investor presentation last week “LEVEL (the group’s Long Haul LCC) is as well off with the Airbus A330-200 as with a Boeing 787.” He said the lower capital costs of the A330 compensates for the Dreamliner’s lower fuel burn.
As a proof, Walsh said IAG had run flight plans with their LEVEL A330 flying the same mission as a Norwegian 787 and configured as the Norwegian aircraft. The difference in fuel burn Barcelona-Los Angeles would be 6t. But this is easily compensated by the difference in capital costs.
Going forward, LEVEL has the possibility to switch to the 787, said Walsh. Our reaction is; why not include the A330neo in this discussion?
We decided to verify Walsh statements and also check why an A330neo wouldn’t be more appropriate than a 787.
Summary:
- The statement by Walsh about the difference in fuel burn between the A330 and the Dreamliner is correct.
- However, fuel cost is no longer the dominant cost in airline operations.
- We compare the total Cash Operating Costs (COCs) of the aircraft, then we view whether the COC difference between the types can be compensated with capital cost differences.
New mission focus seen for NMA
Nov. 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: A revised mission focus for the the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) is seen by a New York research firm.
Bernstein Research sees the NMA being redefined as a larger aircraft serving the Airbus A320/Boeing737 market rather than a replacement for the Boeing 757/767 “Middle of the Market” sector.
Bernstein has been cool to the prospect of a 4,500nm-5,000nm airplane. The analyst, Doug Harned, likes the proposed size—220-270 passengers in a 2x3x2 ovoid
Concept of the Boeing 797 New Midmarket Aircraft. Source: fs2000.org.
composite fuselage configuration. But he sees a stronger market serving ranges of 1,000nm to 4,500nm.
So far, there is no market intelligence LNC knows of to support any inference Boeing has refocused the mission statement of the NMA, also known as the Boeing 797, though Harned is firm in his view: “The focus is now on the NMA category, which we see as the right positioning,” he writes in a Nov. 6 research note.
Airlines LNC checked with yesterday reaffirm Boeing’s focus at this time to be 4,500nm-5,000nm.
Analyst: Airbus could eventually terminate CSeries program
Nov. 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Bombardier CSeries may go the way of the McDonnell Douglas MD-95, a Wall Street aerospace analyst suggests: that is, the
Doug Harned, the analyst for Bernstein Research, draws a parallel between Airbus’ acquisition of a majority stake in the CSeries program and Boeing’s 1997 acquisition of McDonnell Douglas in which the MD-95 joined the Boeing family of airplanes.
The 110-seat MD-95 was renamed the Boeing 717. Boeing attempted to market the airplane, without success. Production was terminated after 156 airplanes were built.
CSeries effect on Airbus, Boeing product strategies
Subscription Required
Introduction
Nov. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing took a pass on assuming ownership of the Bombardier CSeries, according to a report in the Toronto Globe and Mail—the same deal rival Airbus took.
In doing so, Boeing passed on acquiring a new airplane program at pretty much zero risk, no cash investment and no research-and-development cost. The market demand ranges from 4,000 to 6,000, depending on whose study you believe.
Rival Airbus wouldn’t have a response and, given its current turmoil, would have been unlikely to pursue a response.
Instead, Boeing may embark on a risky, high-cost development of the New Midrange Aircraft for which market demand remains a controversy, suppliers are reluctant to take risk-sharing positions and which will almost certainly provoke a response from Airbus.
Artist concept of Boeing 797-7. Source: fs2000.org.
Summary
- Boeing says it’s not worried about Airbus stake in CSeries program; it remains satisfied with its product strategy.
- But 100-160 seat sector won’t be covered by a 737 replacement. Airbus has this covered with CSeries.
- New Midmarket Airplane figures into CSeries impact.
Pontifications: Small Mississippi airport plays key role in state’s aerospace industry
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: One of my stops during my October visit along the I-10 corridor from Mobile (AL) to New Orleans, through Mississippi, visiting aerospace interests was the Stennis International Airport.
The airport is in Hancock County, an hour’s drive east of New Orleans.
This is on the eastern edge of the Stennis Space Center I wrote about last week and it benefits from being in the Space Center’s shadow. The Space Center is exempt from noise regulations. So is the airport, which enables this one-runway field to be a way point for noisy military jets and trainers and a training location for helicopter-based special forces. These are all noisy aircraft that locals view as routine, says Kevin Carlisle, director of the airport.
Emirates likely to order new A380s at Dubai Air Show
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 03, 2017, © Leeham Co, Hamburg.: Emirates Airline (Emirates) Chairman and Chief Executive Sheikh Al-Maktoum said at today’s delivery ceremony of the airlines 100th A380, “We hope we will be able to order new A380s next week at Dubai Air Show. The details are being worked out.”
His statement came at a press conference with Airbus CEO, Tom Enders, in Hamburg today, at the delivery of the new A380. The delivered aircraft carries a special tribute to the founder of the Arab Emirates, Sheik Zayed (Figure 1).
Figure 1. The 100th A380 delivered to Emirates Airlines today in Hamburg. Source: Airbus.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft drag reduction, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
Nov. 3, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In the previous Corner, we described how the aeronautical pioneers gradually uncovered what held them back from flying their gliders and airplanes successfully.
They knew they needed lift to fly. And to generate lift, birds taught them wings were needed. What they didn’t understand was why their winged contraptions lost speed and crashed when they threw themselves out from hills or towers. They didn’t understand the relationship between lift and drag.
Figure 1. The first aviator, Otto Lilienthal, with his glider. Source: Wikipedia.
50% increase in CSeries sales forecast–but what does this mean?
Nov. 1, 2017, © Leeham Co.: For years, Bombardier forecast the 20-year market demand in the 100-150 seat sector as between 6,000 and 7,200, depending on the 
year of the forecast.
Airbus in 2014, the last year the OEM segmented the sector in its 20-year forecast, predicted a demand of 4,363 aircraft.
Boeing, which hasn’t publicly segmented the sector, is believed to have forecast a demand between 4,185 and 6,275 in 2013, based on information revealed during various executive presentations. The mid-point was 5,230.
In announcing the acquisition by Airbus of 50.01% of the CSeries program, Airbus CEO Tom Enders cited a 20-year demand of 6,000 aircraft.
Bombardier consistently claimed it would capture 50% of the demand it saw, or 3,000 to 3,600 aircraft, over 20 years.
But the numbers don’t match up.