Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: Airbus easily leads narrow-body backlog, Boeing ahead in wide-bodies
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Two thousand seventeen is over and the numbers are in.
Airbus continues to have a commanding lead over Boeing for single-aisle, neo v MAX backlog.
Although Airbus got pounded by Boeing in wide-body orders last year, the backlog tilts only slightly in Boeing’s favor.
FBI plays role in airline disaster investigations
Feb. 2, 2018, © Leeham Co.: It was 15 years ago yesterday that the Space Shuttle Columbia broke apart over Texas and Louisiana as it reentered Earth’s 
atmosphere following a mission.
At a time when the Federal Bureau of Investigation is under siege in the US, it’s easy to forget that the agency routinely plays a role in aerospace investigations.
The FBI played a crucial role in the Columbia investigation. Agents—more than 500 of them at one point—helped identify pieces of the debris, enabling NASA to determine where on the Shuttle the pieces belonged.
The FBI also played a crucial role in identifying remains of the seven astronauts who died in the disaster.
The story may be found here.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft drag reduction, Part 15
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 2, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we discussed the basics of supersonic flow, to prepare for a supersonic and transonic drag discussion.
We will continue the supersonic aerodynamics discussion, however, as there are some further areas needing an explanation before we move on.
Figure 1. The first supersonic airliner, the Concorde. Source: Google images.
Chinese and Russian Widebody takes shape. Part 4.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 1, 2018, © Leeham Co.: In the third article about the Chinese/Russian widebody, CR929, we looked at the challenges the aircraft poses to the involved manufacturers. Now we continue with analyzing the project’s engine needs.
The CR929 is sized to use engines from the Boeing 787 project. Both GE Aviation and Rolls-Royce got Request for Proposals (RFPs) on 22 Dec. 2017. In addition, the Russian and Chinese engine industry wants to develop an engine for the project.
Summary:
- The Chinese and Russian widebody program needs engines in the 75,000lbf thrust class.
- The project’s engine specification is closely modeled after the engines available from the Boeing 787 project.
- In addition to the available 787 engines, the Chinese and Russian engine industry is trying to unite behind a joint engine proposal.
Boeing sees >800 deliveries in 2018
Jan. 31, 2018: Boeing sees more than 800 deliveries and revenue approaching $100bn this year, as it provides guidance concurrent with its 2017 financial results. Revenue last year was $93.2bn.
The company repurchased $9.2bn in stock last year, continuing its shareholder value program.
Boeing continues to transition from the 737NG to the 737 MAX and the 787-10, now certified, will see deliveries begin rather than airplanes going to inventory. These events contribute to the forecast higher deliveries this year compared with the 763 last year. The 777 program is in transition from the Classic to the X models, lowering deliveries. The production rate for the 737 increases this year from 47 to 52/mo.
The earnings press release is here. The earnings call is at 10:30am EST. This may be accessed here.
IBERIA gets upgraded A350-900
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 31, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: IBERIA will be the first airline to get the upgraded Airbus A350-900. The airline presented the news at the Fitur 2018 International Tourism Trade Fair in Madrid.
The airline’s first A350-900, delivered in June, will be the first A350-900 featuring the aerodynamic improvements we presented in October.
Bombardier Belfast operations are about more than C Series wings
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Introduction
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Belfast, Northern Ireland: These days, when mention of Bombardier’s production facility in Northern Ireland is mentioned, only one thought comes to mind: wings for the C Series.
But the facility is more than one: wings for the C Series. Nacelles for the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine for the Irkut MC-21 are also made in the same building. There are others, where fuselages and tail and wing components for the CRJ and multiple lines of business jets are also made.
Bombardier C Series final wing assembly plant, Belfast, Northern Ireland. Source: Bombardier.
The legacy of the facility dates to 1908, when the Short Brothers began building airplanes, including six Wright Brothers Flyers constructed under license.
It’s from the legacy of using composites on business jets and the CRJs that led to the C Series wings, using production methods that are more advanced than Airbus or Boeing.
Pontifications: 2018 starts off with a bang
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This year isn’t even a month old. If the rest of the year continues like January, commercial aviation is in for an exciting year.
The stunning news, of course, was last week’s shocking defeat for The Boeing Co. in its trade complaint over the Bombardier C Series sale to Delta Air Lines.
Nobody I know of thought Boeing would lose. It did, and by a unanimous verdict.
Then there was the order from Emirates Airline for the Airbus A380, saving the airplane from almost certain program termination.
The Boeing 787-10 was certified. The first delivery will be in March.
And Qatar Airways said it will receive the first Airbus A350-1000 next month.
Let’s look at these events.
What happened and what’s next in Boeing-Bombardier trade case?
Jan. 26, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The decision by the US International Trade Commission that Bombardier did no harm to Boeing with its sale of 75+50 CS100s to Delta Air Lines is a shocker.
The UK and Canadian governments thought Boeing would win, as it had at the US Department of Commerce. Observers and media, including LNC, were unanimous in believing Boeing would win. Bombardier did, too—already filing notices at the World Trade Organization and NAFTA to contest Commerce’s stiff tariff decisions.
With a 4-0 decision by ITC that Boeing suffered no harm, two questions arise:
What happened, and What’s next?