Leeham News and Analysis

Airbus ‘confident’ engine makers can ramp up production

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Introduction

Sept. 17, 2015, © Leeham Co., Mobile (AL): Tom Enders, the chairman and CEO of Airbus Group, is “confident” engine makers can accommodate single-aisle airplane production ramp-ups being considered by Airbus and Boeing.

CFM makes about 50% of the engines on the A320 Family and has about 50% of the backlog for the New

Tom Enders, CEO of Airbus Group. Airbus photo.

Engine Option version. Pratt & Whitney has about the same market share for the NEO, depending on what month it is, with a large number of orders for which no engine has been selected.

Airbus and Boeing are each studying whether to ramp up production of the A320 and 737 families above the record rates already planned.

In an interview Sunday with Leeham News and Comment in advance of the A320 Final Assembly Line opening here, Enders said studies continue whether to take A320 production rates to 60 a month. Boeing is studying rates of 60-63 a month.

Summary

Decision whether to go to rate 60/mo should come by year end.
Suppliers, engine “partner” key to decision.
A380 sales “struggling,” but confidence remains.
More export sales for A400M program expected.

A320 FAL “good for US aerospace,” says Airbus

Sept. 16, 2015, © Leeham Co., Mobile (AL): The opening of the Airbus A320 Final Assembly Line here achieves a major set of goals set by the company 10 years ago for its own strategic purposes, but officials are also mindful of the larger impact on US aerospace.

David L. Williams, VP Procurement, Airbus Americas. Photo via Google images.

Top executives point out that the Mobile plant reestablished a second commercial aviation assembly site in the US since the last MD-11s and MD-95s rolled out of the former McDonnell Douglas plant in Long Beach (CA) after its acquisition by The Boeing Co in 1997. Boeing continued production of the MD-11 until the end of 2000 (with deliveries occurring in 1Q2001). The last MD-95, renamed the Boeing 717, was produced in 2006. There were 200 MD-11s and 156 717s produced.

With nearly 10 years elapsing between that last 717 and the first A321ceo coming out of Mobile, Airbus officials say the creation of the FAL is not only good for Airbus and Alabama, it’s good for US aerospace.

11 Comments

Posted on September 16, 2015 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, CFM, McDonnell Douglas, Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, Pratt & Whitney

717, A320 final assembly line, A321ceo, Airbus, Airbus Mobile, Boeing, CFM, David L. Williams, McDonnell Douglas, MD-11, MD-95, Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, PNAA, Pratt & Whitney

New single aisles on home stretch

By Bjorn Fehrm

16 Sep 2015, © Leeham Co.: Boeing released pictures yesterday of the first 737 MAX 8 being on the Renton Final Assembly Line (FAL) having completed the wing-to-body joins. With the Airbus A320neo now flying again with both Pratt & Whitney GTF and CFM LEAP test vehicles and Bombardier completing 85% on CSeries (having passed 2,400 hours of flight testing), one can say the new single aisles are on their home stretch.

737 MAX on the Final Assembly Line at Renton, Seattle. Source: Boeing.

Original planning had the CSeries entering service in December 2013, nearly two years before A320neo (October 2015) and four years before the 737 MAX (4Q2017). With the 737 MAX now on the FAL one can start to review the Entry into Service (EIS) for all three. It will be tighter than the companies have said.

25 Comments

Posted on September 16, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Bjorn's Corner, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney

737 MAX, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney

Airbus Mobile FAL a victory for CEO Enders

Sept. 14, 2015, © Leeham Co., Mobile (AL): The opening of the Airbus Mobile (AL) A320 Final Assembly Line (FAL) is viewed by some close associates as a personal victory for Tom Enders, the chief executive officer of Airbus Group.

Enders began the quest of a US FAL 10 years ago, when EADS (then the name of Airbus’ parent, now Air Group) joined with Northrop Grumman to bid on the US Air Force Refueling Tanker, the KC-X. The Boeing Co. was the competition, and supplied tankers to the USAF since the end of World War II.

40 Comments

Posted on September 14, 2015 by Scott Hamilton

air force tanker, Airbus, Boeing

A320, A320 final assembly plant, air force tanker, Airbus, Airbus Mobile, Boeing, KC-330. KC-767, KC-X, Tom Enders

Embraer CEO interview: oil prices, Brazil’s economy, China

Paulo Cesar, president and CEO of Embraer’s commercial aviation unit. Photo via Google images.

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Introduction

Part 3

Sept. 14, 2015, © Leeham Co. It’s only been three months since the Paris Air Show and there have been some significant developments in the world that have impact on commercial aviation:

Oil prices dropped from about $62/bbl to a low of $38 in mid-August and it’s climbed back to about $46 this week;
China devalued the Yuan;
The Brazilian economy has deteriorated and so has the domestic political situation; and
Some LCC airlines in Asia are feeling the strain of growth and weakening currencies.

We talked with Paulo Cesar, president and CEO of Embraer at the Paris Air Show on some of these topics. We caught up with him Sept. 2 in Seattle, revisiting these topics and talking about more.

Pontifications: Boeing view of market conditions today

By Scott Hamilton

Sept. 14, 2015, © Leeham Co.: Randy Tinseth, Boeing’s VP Marketing, spoke with Bernstein Research last week on a variety of topics. In a note issued after the conversation, analyst Douglas Harned reported:

“Boeing views the 140 orders to date as a good start, and that high demand for this model will come later when it is closer to being in service. Boeing is sold out for all models of the 787 through the decade, so there are few opportunities for near/medium term deliveries in any case. The company sees the 787-10 as a natural replacement for 767s, A330s and some 777s, and expects that these will drive strong replacement
Randy Tinseth. Photo: Boeing.

demand in the early 2020s.”
“Airlines have been upgauging narrowbodies away from the 737-700 and A319. Boeing expects that the 737-900ER will gain share, but that the 737-800 (or soon the 737MAX-8) will remain its most popular narrowbody. Airlines have been moving to larger narrowbodies and using slimline seats to add capacity to existing airplanes. Boeing believes that, while this trend does exist, the market will be centered on the 737-800/A320-size airplanes, but with a larger share than in the past going to 737-900s/A321s. Boeing believes that its product set offers greater flexibility since the 737-800 and 737-900ER are closer together in size that are the A320 and A321.”
“In terms of orders for the 777, the companyis sold out in 2016 and is over 60% sold out for 2017, with many campaigns in progress. Production of the 777X would start in 2018 and current 777 rates will be lowered to introduce the 777X in the final assembly line (consistent with our projections). There are some 737NG slots left in 2018 and 2019, but the first available slots for the 737MAX are now in 2021.”

43 Comments

Posted on September 14, 2015 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Pontifications

737-800, 737-900ER, 737MAX, 737NG, 747-8F, 767-300ER, 777, 777F, 777X, A320, A321, Airbus, American Airlines, Bernstein Research, Boeing, Continental Airlines, Dallas Morning News, Douglas Harned, Gorden Bethune, Herb Kelleher, Randy Tinseth, Robert Crandall, Southwest Airlines, Terry Maxon

Airbus FAL in Mobile (AL), Part 2

Sept. 13, 2015, (c) Leeham Co., Mobile (AL): The new Airbus Final Assembly Line (FAL) opening today here will serve the US market, a plan that follows the philosophy when the company opened an FAL in

Barry Eccleston, president and CEO of Airbus Americas. Photo via Google images.

Tianjin, China years ago.

Just as that plant is intended to serve the Chinese airlines and lessors, so is this one for the US market.

Barry Eccleston, president and COO of Airbus Americas, said there remains plenty of growth in the North American market, which is considered mature in the global airline industry.

Traffic is going to go up 40% over the next 20 years, he said. Ninety percent of this 40% will come from existing routes, says Eccleston. This means the airliner are buying larger airplanes. A major number of the orders are for the A321s, which can carry up to 240 passengers.

“Our original plan was to open the Mobile plant with A320s, but it is with A321s.”

Even at 4/mo, the Mobile facility isn’t filing the need for A320s in the North American market, Eccleston said. There is a demand for nearly 6,000 passenger and freighter aircraft in North America over 20 years: 4,730 single-aisles, 1,000 twin aisles and 170 A380s.

2 Comments

Posted on September 13, 2015 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines

A320, A321, Airbus, Airbus Mobile, Alan McArtor, Barry Eccleston, Fabrice Bregier

A321s in Airbus Mobile FAL

Sept, 13, 2015, (c) Leeham Co., Mobile (AL): The first two A321ceos are on the Final Assembly Line (FAL) at the new Airbus plant here in Mobile (AL).

JetBlue is scheduled to take the first delivery in the second quarter next year, followed by an A321ceo for American Airlines by the end of next year.

The slow pace reflects the need to certify every step of the assembly process, which begins nest week with an audit by Europe’s EASA, through the learning curve necessary for a new facility and training the hundreds of employees initially hired.

By the end of next year, Airbus plans to be assembling A320ceos at the rate of four per month, the initial target for this first manufacturing facility on US soil. The plant has the capacity to produce eight a month.

1 Comment

Posted on September 13, 2015 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines

A320ceo, A320NEO, A321ceo, Airbus, Airbus Mobile, American Airlines, JetBlue, Troy Wayman

Bjorn’s Corner: Production costs.

By Bjorn Fehrm

11 September 2015, © Leeham Co: In connection with our articles, there a numerous reader discussions around the development and production costs of new aircraft families. It’s not easy to understand how these costs arise, how they are booked in the OEM’s accounting and how they can be compared. Time for a primer.

I will not duplicate a course in company accounting, but it can be worth the read to understand how costs are created, accounted for and what we as externals can observe via aircraft industry economic reports .

I will focus on Airbus and Boeing. These are good examples of the different ways of collecting and showing costs in the global aircraft industry.

24 Comments

Posted on September 11, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Bjorn's Corner, Boeing

787, A350, Airbus, Boeing

Flying CS100 over a noise-sensitive airport

Bombardier’s CS100 made its first visit to Toronto today and in the process overflew the City’s Billy Bishop Airport, which is located just off downtown in a noise-sensitive area.

The Bombardier CS100 overflies Toronto Billy Bishop Airport during its first visit to the City.

Porter Airlines, which is based at Billy Bishop, has a large conditional order for the CS100. The plan requires extending the runway at both ends and gaining governmental approval to operate commercial jets there. Right now only turbo-props are allowed for airline operations.

There is substantial opposition from the plan, including from rival Air Canada. For the public, it’s mostly about noise. For Air Canada, it’s the competitive advantage Porter would have operating out of close-in Bishop while AC is at the more distant Pearson Airport.

CS100 noise tests indicate it is quieter than the Bombardier Q400 Porter flies from Bishop. The CS100 overflights are obviously a demonstration of the noise profile of CS100 operations at Bishop.

34 Comments

Posted on September 10, 2015 by Scott Hamilton

Bombardier, CSeries

Air Canada, Billy Bishop Airport, Bombardier, CS100, Pearson Airport, Porter Airlines, Q400, Toronto

Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

Leeham News and Analysis

Airbus ‘confident’ engine makers can ramp up production

A320 FAL “good for US aerospace,” says Airbus

New single aisles on home stretch

Airbus Mobile FAL a victory for CEO Enders

Embraer CEO interview: oil prices, Brazil’s economy, China

Pontifications: Boeing view of market conditions today

Airbus FAL in Mobile (AL), Part 2

A321s in Airbus Mobile FAL

Bjorn’s Corner: Production costs.

Flying CS100 over a noise-sensitive airport

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