Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Hot competition in Middle East, Airframe analysis.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 15, 2015, C. Leeham Co: We have previously written about the interview with Emirates Airline President and COO, Tim Clark, where he says that in the present competition for Emirates’ medium haul 330 seaters, one can see that the extreme hot conditions for Dubai International Airport can cause trouble for aircraft which are dimensioned for normal airport conditions. This will hit a dedicated medium-haul aircraft like the Boeing 787-10 harder than a long-haul aircraft turned medium-haul like the Airbus A350-900.
The latter is designed to take-off with higher weights and has therefore a larger wing and stronger engines; it has more margins in a medium-haul mission. We looked at how the engines react to hot conditions last week and will now look at the airframes.
Summary:
- The airframes have in principal three limitations for hot takeoffs:
- Balanced field length (includes the safety precautions for losing an engine)
- Brake energy absorption restrictions for an aborted take-off
- Tire speed restrictions
- The 787-10 is an optimized mid-range design. In the hot climate of Dubai it has less margins for a take-off with a large payload for a typical flight than a long range design like A350-900.
- We explore where those limits are and how they can affect daily operations.
“7M7” MOM means opportunities all around US
The prospect that Boeing may launch the so-called Middle of the Market (MOM) airplane seems to be gaining ground.
We’ve reported previously that our Market Intelligence suggests the MOM would be launched in 2017 or 2018 with an entry into service seven years later.
In an interview with Air Lease Corp president John Plueger, he outlined why Boeing has to proceed with the MOM–the response to the 737-9 MAX has been disappointing. We also reported in our interview with Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier he doesn’t believe a MOM is needed, that the A321neo and A321LR fill the bill. Clearly he is looking at this from a different perspective than from Boeing’s current dilemma.
On the eve of the Paris Air Show, Jon Ostrower of The Wall Street Journal reported that Boeing sees a demand for MOM.
The prospect of a launch of what we’ll for now call the “7M7” (for MOM, obviously), presents opportunities all around the US. And potential anguish for Washington State and Boeing’s local unions.
Bjorn’s Corner: Hot competition in Middle east.
By Bjorn Fehrm
- Boeing needs hundreds of 777 orders to bridge the production gap is now open to all Readers.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
12 June 2015, C. Leeham Co: Earlier in the week we had an interesting interview with Sir Tim Clark, , president and COO of Emirates Airline. We discussed Emirates’ requirement for a twin aisle medium/long range complement to their Airbus A380 and Boeing 777 fleets. The competition is between Boeing’s 787-10 and Airbus’ A350-900. So far the assumptions have been that the 787-10 will be hard to beat on pure costs per seat for mid-range requirements in the 300-seat segment.
The 787-10 seats 323 passengers in Boeing’s old-fashioned IAC three class seating and 331 in our more modern, normalized two class seating with 60 inch angled lie flat in Business and 32 inch economy section. The A350-900 has so far seated 313 seats in the same normalized seating standard. Recent cabin changes by Airbus can now increase that to close to 330 seats. The configuration changes were originally conceived for A350-1000 but we believe Airbus will offer these to Emirates and they will make it into the -900 catalog.
The 787-10 is lighter and would therefore be more effective on fuel but the difference is small, given the A350-900’s more modern engines. So the overall discussion was that 787-10 had found its ideal customer, in need of many seats, a solid mid-range performance and lowest cost. That was until Monday’s interview with Clark.
A380 cost improvements limited to seating, for now: Bregier
- MOM airplane doesn’t make sense.
- A new MOM should have new technology and it’s not available until 2030.
June 9, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Cost improvements for the A380 will be limited for now to
Fabrice Bregier, CEO of Airbus. Image from The Telegraphy via Google images.
increasing seating capacity, the president and chief executive office of Airbus told Leeham News and Comment in an interview today.
Aside from taking weight out of the airplane, which is already being done, Fabrice Bregier said Performance Improvement Packages (PIPs), such as aerodynamic improvements and adjustments to the wingtips, would wait until–or if–Airbus re-engines the airplane. And Bregier said Airbus is in no hurry to make a decision about this, despite pressure from the largest A380 customer, Emirates Airline, to launch the neo.
We want engine choice, say airlines at IATA
Willie Walsh, CEO of British Airways, says sole-sourcing the engine on the 747-8 cost Boeing an order. BA bought the Airbus A380 instead. Photo source: SI.WSJ.net via Google images.
June 9, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Airlines want engine choices, not sole-source on airplanes, airlines said at the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) Annual General Meeting in Miami Beach (FL).
Sole-sourcing cost Boeing a major order for the slow-selling 747-8, said Willie Walsh, CEO of British Airways. Relations at the time between British and GE Aviation, the sole engine provider on the 747-8, were so poor BA decided instead to order the Airbus A380, where a choice between the Engine Alliance GP7200 and the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 was possible GE is a JV partner in Engine Alliance with Pratt & Whitney. BA bought Rolls.
MOM market depends on price, says Air Lease Corp
June 9, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Middle of the Market (MOM) airplane seems next up on the development plate. Air Lease Corp (ALC) is a major player in the development of any new airplane, and president John Plueger said the size of the market will depend greatly on the price of the airplane.
During a short interview on the sidelines of the conference, Plueger didn’t name a price but said the more expensive the airplane, the market could be as few as 800. The less expensive, the market could be as much as 1,200-1,600 airplanes. Either market isn’t big enough for Airbus and Boeing to play in this space, but Boeing–lagging in the single-aisle sector with the 737 MAX 9 to the Airbus A321neo–has to do something, Plueger said.
Boeing still needs hundreds of 777 Classic orders to fill gap
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Introduction
June 9, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Boeing may acknowledge that it will cut the production rate of the 777 Classic by one per month in 2018 as production of the 777X begins, Officials may claim the 777X production is the same as maintaining a rate equivalent to 777 Classic. But a fresh analysis taking these factors into account shows Boeing has a steep hill to climb to maintain sales and cash flows.
We’ve updated our analysis from last February on the production gap facing Boeing to maintain production rates through the introduction of the 777X in 2020 and beyond until the X ramp-up is complete. We’ve taken into account the delivery dates of the 10 Classics ordered this spring by United Airlines. We’ve also taken into account information emerging from Boeing’s Paris Air Show briefings last week. This includes information that Boeing will cut the rate of the Classic by one per month in 2018 from the current 8.3/mo as the X is integrated into the production system.
Summary
Boeing’s initial claims that it will maintain the 777 Classic production rate through 777X EIS has been eroding for months.
When the estimated 777X production ramp-up is factored in, Boeing’s task of selling the Classic to maintain rates is daunting.
Boeing still has to sell hundreds of Classics to maintain production even at the lower rate, according to our analysis.
Even with the new information and Boeing’s revised messaging, we remain firmly convinced 777 production rates will have to come down much more than suggested last week.
Emirates A350/787 bake-off remains wide open
Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline. Photo: Skift.com via Google images.
June 9, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Competition between Airbus and Boeing remains wide open between the A350-900 and the 787-10, says the president of Emirates Airline despite an Internet report that the carrier has tilted toward Boeing.
“No, I don’t know where that’s coming from,” Clark today told Leeham News and Comment on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Assn. Annual General Meeting in Miami Beach. “If anything, the 10 is not coming up with the thrust requirements that we need. We’re working with Boeing on that, whereas the A350-900 has got bags of thrust.