Leeham News and Analysis

Airbus A380neo not yet a project

July 21, 2015: The London Sunday Times created a stir over the weekend when it headlined an interview with Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier that Airbus “commits” to an A380neo project.

Drilling down into the story and checking with Airbus, as well as going back to Bregier interviews at the Paris Air Show and one we did with him at the IATA AGM in early June, it’s clear the Sunday Times was somewhat exuberant in its headline.

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 53 Comments

 Posted on July 21, 2015 by

 Airbus, Dubai Air Show, Emirates Airlines, Leeham News and Comment, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce

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Pontifications: Boeing takes another charge on tanker program; What’s next?

By Scott Hamiltn

By Scott Hamilton

July 20, 2015, © Leeham Co.: Boeing on Friday took another charges against its USAF aerial refueling tanker program, the KC-46A, this time $536m after taxes ($855m before taxes). This brings the charges to date to more than $800m after taxes ($1.3bn before taxes).

So much for my vacation and skipping Pontifications this week.

The new charge is split between Boeing Commercial Airplanes ($513m pre-tax) and

Boeing Defense, Space & Security ($322m pre-tax). This is because the KC-46A is based on the 767-

Japan’s KC-767. What about “lessons learned?” Photo via Google Images.

200ERF and BCA is principally in charge of the development.

Last week, the USAF–before the Boeing announcement–said it still expects the first production tankers to be delivered on time, in 2017, but Boeing Commercial’s recent track record of developing, producing and delivering airplanes on time and on budget leaves a lot to be desired.

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 30 Comments

 Posted on July 20, 2015 by

 air force tanker, Boeing, Boeing KC-X tanker, Pontifications

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Options for Singapore Airlines to operate direct flights to the US.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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July 20, 2015 © Leeham Co. Last week week we wrote about how Singapore Airlines is in talks with Airbus and Boeing to find a suitable solution for its Ultra-Long Haul airplane needs. Now we go deeper into the subject, looking at the background to the need, the aircraft options and their economics.

We also check if the different aircraft options could open the famous Singapore-New York route again, this time with acceptable fuel economics.

Summary:

  • We explore SQ’s options for US direct traffic, looking at possible aircraft and their fuel economics.
  • The A340-500 flight to New York was stopped because of to high fuel costs. We show what the fuel consumption would have been with the 777-200LR.
  • Should Airbus decide to launch the A350-900LR a specially equipped version could re-open the famous route. We show how and with what fuel gains over A340-500 and 777-200LR.

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 8 Comments

 Posted on July 20, 2015 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Emirates Airlines, Qatar Airways

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Go Hawks!

July 19, 2015: For those who followed this column for some time, you know we favor the Seattle Seahawks. Boeing has painted another 747-8F in Seahawks colors, so we are indulging to post some photos Boeing released today.

seahawksplane1

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 2 Comments

 Posted on July 19, 2015 by

 Boeing, Seattle Seahawks

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Bjorn’s Corner: hot summer, hot engines

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

17 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: It is summer in south of Europe and we have had over 30°C/86°F for weeks. It makes one realize the conditions where the engines have to work over their flat rating point in the Middle East.

Aircraft engines are a bit fidgety. They don’t like temperature although they are made to sustain that their hottest parts, the nozzle and first turbine after the combustor, gets scalded to 1700°C/3,092°F or more.

Go down to the very back end of the engine and we come to where the key engine parameter, EGT (Exhaust Gas Temperature), is measured. It determines a lot of things, among them the time the engine stays on wing. Things are typically 700°C/1,832°F cooler here and this is where a reliable temperature measurement probe can be placed. Based on its values, the total health of the engine’s core is determined. It is also a key input whether the engine shall be throttled back in a hot take-off like in the Middle East.

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 40 Comments

 Posted on July 17, 2015 by

 Airlines, Bjorn's Corner, CFM, Emirates Airlines, GE Aviation, International Aero Engines, Pratt & Whitney

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Airbus in talks with Singapore for ultra-long range airplane; “A350-900LR” likely

We believe Airbus is close to launching an “A350-900LR” (Long Range) in response to talks with Singapore Airlines for a longer-range airplane.

July 14, 2015 © Leeham Co. Singapore Airlines is in talks with Airbus and Boeing about an Ultra-Long Haul airplane that can fly from Singapore to the US non-stop.

The talks were first reported by Bloomberg News June 17, during the Paris Air Show.

Singapore discontinued the flights to Los Angeles and Newark when rising fuel prices made operation of the Airbus A340-500 used on the trips uneconomic.

Boeing currently has one airplane capable of service to Los Angeles, the current generation 777-200LR, which has a standard range of 8,665nm but not to Newark which is 8,300nm great-circle without the unpopular Additional Cargo-bay Tanks (ACT), any wind or longer range alternate would exceed the capabilities of 777-200LR in standard config. Los Angeles is 7,560nm from Singapore and when flying west the extra range in the standard 777-200LR would be needed to combat the prevailing westerly winds on the mission.

The Airbus A350-900 has a range of 7,900nm when transporting the same 301 passengers as 777-200LR. Boeing’s forthcoming 777-8X has a planned range of 9,300nm but it’s entry-into-service isn’t planned until around 2022.

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 126 Comments

 Posted on July 14, 2015 by

 Airbus, Airlines, Boeing

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Pontifications: Make a Wish, AA responds

Bu Scott Hamiltn

By Scott Hamilton

July 13, 2015: I’m traveling. Pontifications this week and next will be “grabs” from YouTube.

The first is a short video of a young boy with a heart condition who wishes to be a pilot for American Airlines, which is part of the Make a Wish foundation. When AA was informed, see what happened next.

Next, a short video about the Lockheed Constitution, a double-decker piston airplane designed during World War II. The military was the driver of the project but Pan American World Airways was also interested. Only two Constitutions were built.

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 9 Comments

 Posted on July 13, 2015 by

 American Airlines, Pontifications

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Boeing 777X heading towards design freeze a bit heavier than planned.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

July 12, 2015, © Leeham Co. As we reported from Boeing’s Paris Air Show briefing, Boeing’s 777X project is progressing to a design freeze later in 2015. At the briefing everything was presented as being on track with no changes of key data. There have been signs that this in not fully the case. The 777X program is suffering the same disease that hits other aircraft programs, weight gain flu.

To understand it better, we compiled the many indications that points to weight increase and ran them through our proprietary model to understand why and see what it means for the aircraft’s performance.

Summary:

  • Weight increase is an evil that all aircraft programs battle with. Our analysis shows that 777X is no different.
  • Engine thrust is one of the areas which will be increased to mitigate increased weight. We give the latest status of GE9X thrust development, now beyond 105,000 lb.
  • A number of airframe changes have been made. We analyze their consequences and make predictions for future maximum weight increases.

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 2 Comments

 Posted on July 13, 2015 by

 Boeing, Dubai Air Show, Emirates Airlines, GE Aviation, Paris Air Show, Premium

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Bjorn’s Corner: Electrical flight, how real?

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

10 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: We have just witnessed the first solar electrical aircraft, Solar Impulse 2, cross the ocean from Tokyo to Hawaii. Today, Friday, Airbus Group will cross the English Channel with a battery powered electrical aircraft, the E-Fan.

How real is electrical flying? Real enough to make demonstration flights like the one to Hawaii and to Calais. Both these aircraft are technology demonstrators but it is symptomatic that they do these hops now, 2015.E-Fan cross Channel

Airbus Group’s E-Fan aircraft is preparing to cross the English Channel. Source: Airbus.

We live in the years when electrical cars have gone from exotic one-offs to serial produced products, still expensive but more and more practical. Why should not the aircraft industry follow? Read more

 27 Comments

 Posted on July 10, 2015 by

 Airbus, Bjorn's Corner, EADS, Eco-Aviation, Future aircraft

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Mid-Year pause: warning signs for Airbus and Boeing?

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Introduction

July 9, 2015, © Leeham Co. At the half way point of 2015, there are a number of signs emerging that require some interpretation. Some are signs of caution. Others are Go Slow.

Summary

  • China’s economy is taking a sudden dip. The cargo market is taking a dive.
  • Aircraft orders are off substantially YOY for the first half. Has the order bubble finally popped?
  • Bombardier didn’t get any CSeries orders at the Paris Air Show. Is the program in trouble (still)?
  • Boeing still leads Airbus in wide-body orders; will Airbus fall short by year-end?

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 1 Comment

 Posted on July 9, 2015 by

 Airbus, Boeing, China, Paris Air Show, Premium

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