Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: re-engining airliners and the A380
By Scott Hamilton
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins in two weeks. One thing that won’t happen is the launch of the Airbus A380neo.
We still think it will happen, though at a later date.
Re-engining the A380 is highly controversial. The A380 is the plane critics love to hate. You can argue whether it should have been built in the first place. You can argue whether it was 10 years too soon. You can argue whether Airbus misjudged the size of the market. You can even argue its passenger appeal. I haven’t flown on the A380 yet, so I can’t speak from personal experience on the latter. I’ve previously discussed the other points.
You can argue whether the airplane should be re-engined. Leeham News concluded in January 2014 Airbus really had no choice but to re-engine the A380 if it wants to continue offering the model. If done inexpensively (a relative term, to be sure), it makes sense given the arrival around 2020 of the Boeing 777-9. It’s when design creep happens that trouble arises. Just ask Boeing on the 747-8.
Emirates Airlines says it will buy up to 200 A380neos if Airbus proceeds. Qatar Airways expresses interest. Lufthansa Airlines said a neo is needed to keep the A380 viable in the future, though it hasn’t taken the next step of saying it will buy more.
Re-engining is hardly new. Let’s take a look. Read more
Paris Air Show: Qatar and others
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Introduction
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. It could be called the Qatar Airways Air Show.
Qatar Airways plans to have five airliners on display at the Paris Air Show in two weeks: the Airbus A319, A320, A350, A380 and the Boeing 787. The carrier hasn’t 
announced whether it will provide an aerial display as it has at previous air shows, but Qatar may well have more airliners there than Airbus or Boeing.
As for manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing, we don’t expect anything of consequence from these.
Summary
- Irkut, COMAC, Mitsubishi, Sukoi and ATR are other major aircraft producers that will be at the Paris Air Show.
- Engine makers CFM International, GE Aviation, Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and Engine Alliance will also be there.
- An update on Airbus expectations.
Bjorn’s Corner: Airbus Innovation days, activities and program updates.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
28 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: I am in Toulouse today attending Airbus Innovation days for Leeham News. It has been a good day’s briefings and I have presented what was perhaps the biggest change since we last met Airbus in the article “Airbus A350-1000 getting real”.
Apart from this program, there were more standard updates on Airbus other activities and programs. Here follows a rundown on these updates in a more paraphrased form.
Embraer ramps up smaller airplane messaging
Figure 1. Click on image to enlarge.
May 28, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Embraer is ramping up is messaging that the E-Jet family provides a better Return on Capital Employed in many circumstance than the larger Airbus and Boeing single-aisle family.
In a new push to be unveiled at the Paris Air Show in a little over two weeks, Embraer will describe its “New Metrics for Success” to an international audience in an open forum.
EMB has been showing airlines and lessors the concept for some time, and we received a briefing on the essential elements when we visited EMB last October at is home base in San Jose, Brazil.
New Metrics for Success takes airlines away from the traditional metric of economics, the Cost per Available Seat mile, and focuses trip costs and the higher quality revenue obtained by limiting the number of low-yield seats on a flight that must be offered to fill larger airplanes. Read more
Airbus Innovation days: A350-1000 getting real
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 28, 2015, c. Leeham Co. We are visiting the Airbus Innovation days where we have been given an update all Airbus civil aircraft programs. The perhaps most interesting update is the progress of the A350-1000 as its forerunner, A350-900, is ramping its production to 15 aircraft during 2015.
The A350-1000 is next in turn; it will be flying next summer and will enter service with first customer Qatar Airways summer of 2017. The A350-1000 is getting more real and Airbus gave a good insight to the aircraft’s readiness for prime time during the sessions of today.
Boeing 777 Japanese suppliers see rate cut in 2016: BAML
May 26, 2015: Key Japanese suppliers on the Boeing 777 program have told Bank of America Merrill Lynch they expect a production rate cut in 2016, BAML aerospace analyst Ron Epstein reports in a note published earlier today.
Epstein cites BAML’s Japanese industrial analyst Takahiro Mori in his own note dated May 21. Mori also wrote that Boeing is cutting pricing to its supply chain in Japan, putting additional squeeze on profits.
Flying the Airbus A350
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 25, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Friday we showed our little video from our test flight of Airbus A350 at end of April. Now it is time to describe the impressions during the flight more in detail. Different from the excellent reports of other magazines that were present, we will look deeper into flying an aircraft with Fly By Wire in contrast to a conventionally controlled aircraft and less in trying to compare the A350 with other airliners, as we don’t have this experience.
Our lack of experience in flying airliners has an advantage when it comes to first impression of how it is to fly the much-discussed Airbus Fly By Wire (FBW) concept. My experience so far has all been non-FBW aircraft, from very small and slow (Tiger Moth) to the fast and a bit larger (Mach 1.7 SAAB Draken). In all, I’ve flown 14 different types. To that, one can add having flown the Embraer KC-390 simulator last October. Some of the aircraft have had no servos. Others had 100% servos with artificial feel through springs working on the stick. Autopilots have differed widely from wings leveler to flight director aircraft with coupled ILS approaches. None has had auto-thrust to date except for the KC-390.
Pontifications: Fare and market share wars
By Scott Hamilton
May 25, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Airline stocks took a dive last week when it appeared fare wars and eroding capacity discipline is beginning among US carriers.
Southwest Airlines said it will be adding capacity at the rate of 6%-7% compared with recent increases of 2%-3% and American Airlines said it will begin matching the prices of Low Cost and Ultra Low Cost Carriers rather than see its market share erode.
And the markets went into a tizzy.
I’m old enough to remember when American aggressively matched the low fares of the emerging new entrant airlines after deregulation in the 1980s. The matching spread and the 1980s became a bloodbath. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Flying the Airbus A350
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
22 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: As one of four aeronautical media companies we were asked by Airbus if we wanted to test fly the A350 end of January this year. Airbus was arranging for Media test pilots to come and fly the A350 and we had asked for sampling the A350 through its simulator. Airbus returned with the question if I did not want to try the real thing. They did not have to ask twice!
It was all in the preliminary planning stage at the time but come March things got concrete. I should come to Toulouse on April 22 for a full day in the simulator and then the aircraft. As I did not have previous airline flying experience (mainly military fighters and business aircraft), I started training on the rather different system approach that a civil airliner has to a military fighter for Autopilot and Autothrust. I described this training in a previous Bjorn’s Corner. Publication of this story was embargoed by Airbus to May 22.
Read more
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Posted on May 21, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
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