Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 4. July 3, 2025
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
Airbus investors day Dec. 10-11: here’s our preview
The annual Airbus investors days are tomorrow and Thursday in London. Airbus will webcast the event; go here to link up.
The presentations will include a mix of commercial and military, with John Leahy, chief operating officer of customers, presumably presenting on the commercial. Group CEO Tom Enders, along with the chief financial officer, are likely also to present; the agenda won’t be posted until tomorrow.
On the commercial side, we expect discussion of the pending delivery Saturday of the A350-900 to launch customer Qatar Airways. Entry into service won’t happen until next month.
We expect the analysts to drill down on the A330ceo production gap; Airbus has had little success selling this airplane, and the hoped-for large order from China for the A330R has once again failed to materialize. The gap falls off the cliff in 2016. Airbus previously announced a production rate cut from 10 to nine in 4Q2015 but we think this will have to drop even more, and dramatically.
737 MAX 8 could be enabler for some LCC Long Haul
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Figure 1. Nominal range of 737 MAX 8 from Oslo Source: Great circle mapper, Boeing. Click on Image to enlarge
Dec, 8, 2014:The Boeing 737-8 MAX is the successor to the 737-800 and has largely been thought of in this context.
Our analysis, prompted by Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS) plans to use Boeing 737-8 MAXes to begin trans-Atlantic service on long, thin routes, comes up with a conclusion that has gotten little understanding in the marketplace: the 8 MAX has enough range and seating to open a market niche below the larger, longer-legged 757, and the economics to support profitable operations for Low Cost Carriers interested in some trans-Atlantic routes or destinations beyond the range of the -800.
Summary
- We based our analysis on our proprietary, economic modeling, assumed Norwegian cabin configuration standards.
- We compared the operating costs of the 737-8 with Norwegian’s present long haul aircraft 787-8 in a similar cabin configuration.
- The comparison range is the max endurance range for an LCC long haul 737-8, eight hours or 3,400nm air distance (no wind included).
Boeing and Washington State; and: Congressional meddling may threaten KC-46A
The Washington State Legislature may consider implementing a mechanism to track the benefits of the Boeing 777X tax incentives granted last year, according to the on-line news service Crosscut. Boeing opposes the measure, according to the report.
USAF moves up AF One replacement, reports Inside Defense
Dec. 7, 2014: The US Air Force is moving up the the Presidential Aircraft Replacement program to seek Requests for Proposals next year, according to the specialty newsletter Inside Defense.
The Boeing 747-8 is viewed as the certain selection to become the next Air Force One. Source: Flight Global.
An airframe purchase will occur in 2016, according to the newsletter. Delivery would be in 2018. Boeing, which supplied the two 747-200-based VC-25 aircraft that comprise today’s Air Force One fleet, already has assembled a team for the proposal, Inside Defense reports.
The USAF previously had talked about acquiring replacements in 2021.
Notably, Airbus–which previously said it won’t compete for a new AF One–hedged when asked by the newsletter. Read more
Boeing retains net order lead going into last month of year
Dec. 5, 2014: Boeing retains the lead in net orders going into the last month of this year, although the gap has narrowed considerably–and there are a couple of public campaigns and commitments Airbus has announced or talked about that could shift the year-end balance.
Boeing has been less open about pending campaigns, so it is harder to gauge potential orders this month.
Figure 1. Click image to enlarge.
Year to date, Airbus reports 1,031 net orders and 297 cancellations, including the 70 A350s canceled in June by Emirates Airlines. Boeing 1,274 orders net of 106 cancellations, for a net advantage of 234 orders over Airbus. Airbus previously announced a commitment from Indigo Airlines of India for 250 A320neos and it continues to press China for an order of 70-200 A330 Regionals. Airbus also said it expects an order before the end of the year for the A321neoLR, but the quantity has not been specified. Read more
At what price do used A380s make sense?
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Now open to all readers. (Feb. 15, 2015.)
Introduction
Dec. 3, 2014: It’s been seven years since the first Airbus A380 entered service with Emirates Airlines. Tim Clark, the carrier’s president and chief operating officer, told Leeham News and Comment in September that when the A380s reach age 12-15, the period assumed for a useful life in the Emirates business plan, he’ll just send the airplanes to the desert and cut them up.
Aside from cargo conversions, for which the A380 is a poor candidate, is there an alternative for the secondary passenger market?
Summary
- Secondary markets for Very Large Aircraft are problematic.
- Reconfiguration, overhaul costs add huge dollars to the acquisition cost.
- Is there a figure where a secondary market makes sense?
- The value of a 12 year old A380 is….
Boeing remains confident it will fill 777 production gap; cash flow to remain strong
Dec. 3, 2014: Boeing remains “confident” it will be able to bridge the 777 Classic production line at current rates to the introduction of the 777X in 2020, including some “feathering” of the two airplanes.
Boeing president and COO Dennis Muilenburg also said cash generation and free cash flow will remain strong even as Boeing invests in research and development, hikes stock dividends and buys back shares to boost shareholder value.
Muilenburg made the remarks today in a wide-ranging question-and-answer format during the annual Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference in New York.
Fundamentals of airliner performance, Part 5; Approach and landing
By Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 2, 2015: The time has now come to cover descent and landing in our articles around airliner performance. As many aspects of descent are similar to climb we will repeat a bit what we learned in Part 4:
- For high speed operation the pilots fly on Mach as this gives him maximum information around possible effects on the aircraft when he is close to the high speed limit, the maximum Mach number. Beyond this the aircraft gets into supersonic effects like high speed buffeting or unsteady flight.
- For operations under the cross over altitude for Mach 0.78 to 300 kts IAS the pilot flies on Indicated Air Speed (IAS) which gives him maximum information how the aircraft reacts should he go close to the aircraft’s lower speed limits.
Lets now start to go through the steps that our 737 MAX 8 performs after leaving its cruise altitude.
Air Canada: 787s have 29% lower costs than older 767s (before the latter’s reconfiguration)
Dec. 2, 2014: Air Canada says its new Boeing 787s will have 29% lower fuel, maintenance and per-seat costs than the old Boeing 767-300ERs being replaced.
Part of this is because the 787s seat more passengers.
But the airline has found new life in the 767s through increased density, shifting them to its low cost carrier, Rouge, which has lower labor costs and overhead. Rouge’s 767s have 30% lower CASM costs than the same airplane at mainline Air Canada. Read more