Two third of Readers in our on-line polling this week urged IAM 751 members to accept the Boeing contract offer that contains major concessions, notably on pensions, in exchange for Boeing selecting Washington State to assemble the 777X and produce its wing here.
The unscientific polling is broad-based and not restricted to union members, and should not be considered indicative of the outcome of the vote today. Results are to be announced tonight around 9pm PST.
The polling results below are as of January 2. Voting is still open so totals may differ in the original post vs what is reported below, but voting subsided to the point where results should remain constant.
Answer | Votes | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
Accept | 366 | 67% | |
Reject | 183 | 33% |
Key political leaders in the Puget Sound area met Monday with Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, before meeting with the press and urging the members of IAM 751 to approve the contract.
The Puget Sound Business Journal has a detailed story, including the dire consequences if the contract is rejected.
The Associated Press has a similar story.
IAM 751 sent a letter December 23 to its members recommending a No vote and detailing why.
According to the civic leaders meeting with Conner, the BCA CEO said if the 751 members don’t accept the contract, the wing production will be sent elsewhere. According to the news reports, Conner was more ambiguous about the fuselage work and final assembly.
The Requests for Proposals Boeing issued after 751 members rejected the first contract offer on November 13 allowed for splitting the FAL and the wing production among sites. But we confirmed with Washington’s Director of Aerospace that if Boeing does this, none of the $8.7bn in tax breaks the state offered Boeing will be extended; it’s an all-0r-nothing offer.
Missouri is the only other state to go public with its tax break offer: $1.7bn from the state and $1.4bn from St. Louis County.
Texas, California, South Carolina, Alabama, Utah and Georgia are among the 22 states that offered up 54 sites to Boeing in the RFP process. North Carolina and Pennsylvania are the only ones to publicly reveal they were eliminated in Boeing’s early analysis of the RFPs.
The contract offers set off internal strife at the IAM. District 751 leaders are feuding with the IAM International leaders, who negotiated the contracts with Boeing and who have largely run roughshod over 751. Local leaders oppose ratification of the contract and the International urges acceptance. International forced the January 3 vote over the objections of the District.
But our polling also shows the District 751 leadership is in trouble. A large percentage of our Readers blame 751 leaders for the current mess and more want to see the District leaders replaced than the International heads.
A large number of Readers also believe District 751 should be decertified as Boeing’s union representation and a large number believe 751 should divorce from its affiliation with IAM International.
We understand that neither decertification nor “divorce” can occur until 2016 under the current contract, or until 2024 if the contract is Accepted and extended. One of our Readers believes that if this contract is rejected, it is possible for changes to be made this year. We don’t know the answer.
These poll results are below the jump.
Looking ahead in 2014: We wrote this outlook for 2014 for CNN International Travel. More seats, more fees, quieter year.
IAM 751 members vote Friday on the ‘777X contract.‘ Here is a letter dated December 27 from Boeing to the Machinists making the case to vote for the contract.
It is the TWA Twin Globe livery that is the clear choice by our Readers for American Airlines to select for a retro livery.
TWA’s last livery was a distant second. (We didn’t particularly like this design.) The design should probably go on an MD-80, the derivative of the DC-9 on which the Twin Globes livery appeared.
Answer | Votes | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
Boeing 707 Twin Globes Livery | 944 | 53% | |
Final Blue/Red/Gold Livery shown on Boeing 757 | 427 | 24% | |
Red Stripe, Solid Tail Livery shown on Boeing 747 | 165 | 9% | |
1950s Livery seen on Lockheed Constellation | 158 | 9% | |
Boeing 707 Delivery Livery (no Twin Globes) | 56 | 3% | |
Reverse Red livery shown on McDonnell Douglas MD-80 | 23 | 1% |
In other news and irreverence:
There are deeper, longer term implications for the January 3 vote by IAM 751 members on the revised contract proposal from Boeing than have been discussed in the public domain.
The near-term implications have been discussed ad nausea: for employees, vote for a contract that includes concessions, notably on pensions, or risk losing the assembly site for the 777X. For the states, Washington could be a winner, or a big loser. The state that’s awarded the assembly site would be a big winner. Suppliers will supply Boeing regardless of where the 777X is assembled.
Another near-term implication we’ve talked about: the fall-out on the IAM, both at the International level and the District 751 level. No matter how the vote turns out, there is a civil war within 751 members who are royally upset with their leadership and others who believe in it. The civil war between 751 and IAM International HQ will continue well beyond the vote, with the prospect that International could simply depose all the 751 leaders and place 751 under a trustee “for the good of the union.”
But there are much longer term implications of the vote.
Note: The following was distributed to our e-mail list December 23. Last week, American Airlines (as predicted) swapped the A350-800s for A350-900s.
The possibility of Airbus launching an A330 new engine option appears to be gaining ground.
Our Market Intelligence tells us that Airbus is considering a decision soon, probably next year, with a target entry-into-service date of 2018.
A decision to proceed with an A330neo would come after one to drop the A350-800, according to our information. Airbus has systematically switched -800 customers to the larger, and more profitable A350-900 and A350-1000. There are now just 79 A350-800s in backlog.
Customer |
Qty |
Comments |
Aeroflot |
8 |
|
Aircraft Purchase Fleet |
12 |
For Alitalia |
Asiana |
8 |
|
AWAS |
2 |
Probably will swap to A359 |
Hawaiian Airlines |
6 |
Waiting on US Airways |
ILFC |
6 |
Probably will swap to A359 |
Kingfisher |
5 |
Good as gone |
Libyan |
4 |
|
US Airways |
18 |
Expected to disappear now that AA merger completed, replaced with A359/A351 |
Yemenia |
10 |
|
Source: Airbus, Nov. 2013 |
79 |
Leeham Co Chart |
We identify 37, or 47%, that probably are already at risk of cancellation in favor of the larger A350-900 or A350-1000. These 37 are highlighted in red and pink. Another 10, those for Yemenia, are probably already iffy, according to Market Intelligence. The total of 47 represents 59% of the backlog. We have no information on the remaining customers’ intentions.
The IAM 751 members vote Friday whether to Accept or Reject a contract proposal from Boeing that will extend the term to 2024 and contain several contract concessions in return for assembling the 777X in Everett (WA) and producing the wing here. The issues are, to say the least, controversial.
Here’s a chance to express an opinion whether the contract should be Accepted. We can’t control who votes–in other words, members and non-members can vote in our poll. But absent any polling of the members, this is the only mechanism to gauge opinion in advance of the vote. We’ll release results next Friday morning.
The contract terms and conditions, how the contract was negotiated and sent to members and the split between 751 leaders, IAM International and within the 751 membership are controversial.
Some IAM 751 members are unhappy with 751 leadership and the International.
IAM International President Tom Buffenbarger advocates that IAM 751 approve a contract from Boeing that freezes current pensions and adopts a 401(k) style pension for future hires. Yet Buffenbarger advocated to IAM 837 (the union District at Boeing’s St. Louis plant) reject a contract that did just this.
Here is Buffenbarger in an IAM-produced video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGUMyxeLv2M
Update, 3:30pm PST:
IAM 751 leaders have come out opposed to ratifying the contract. This, and a response to Ray Conner’s earlier email, is below the jump, reprinted here. (There is no unique link.)
Original Post:
The Seattle Times broke the news this morning that the IAM International will force a vote on the second Boeing contract offer over the objections (and probably by now, the figurative dead bodies) of IAM District 751 union leaders.
The contract proposal is here.
Some members of the 751 union have been seeking a vote since the 751 leadership, headed by Tom Wroblewski, rejected a counter-offer from Boeing that Wroblewski said he could not support.
Wroblewski said the offer was contingent upon his endorsement of the offer and, unable to do so, he claimed Boeing withdrew the offer. Boeing said it did not, and would not comment about whether the offer was actually “contingent” on Wroblewski’s endorsement. But in a letter issued to employees by Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, it contained a phrase that under any fair interpretation certainly leads one to conclude Wroblewski was correct.
Conner wrote:
We were sincere in asking for the union leadership’s commitment to support our improved final proposal as a tentative agreement that would be taken to a vote by IAM members with a recommendation for approval.
We’ve been of two minds on the vote issue.
What we are crystal clear about, however, is the continued meddling by International in this entire affair. It was International that [m]ucked this up from the beginning, starting with leading the negotiations, forcing the first agreement on 751 leadership, figuratively placing them under house arrest to silence them, [m]ucking up the communication with the membership and mishandling the media through the voting process.
Now International is inserting itself again, and no prophylactic is going to contain this mess.
This should be something sorted out between 751 and Boeing.
International’s motivations seem more intent on preserving its dues-paying jobs at any cost than on doing what’s best for 751 members and for Boeing.
In February 2010 we suggested 751 ought to divorce from International because even then we didn’t believe International had the best interests of the local at heart. We’re more convinced than ever this is the case.
It is so clear that Boeing has International running scared. Regardless of the outcome of a new vote, International will rue these day some day.