Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
2030 decade airplanes need new shapes for better efficiency
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Introduction
April 6, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The next 15 years may well be the last new airplane programs of major airliners that look like today’s tube-and-wing aircraft because demands for new efficiency will require go beyond what engines can do within a reasonable size, says Alan Epstein, VP of technology and environment at Pratt & Whitney.
- Part 1 of our interview with Alan Epstein looked at the next new airplane, the Middle of the Market aircraft (MOM). Today’s Part 2 looks beyond MOM (and it’s not DAD).
Major changes to the airframe will have to provide added efficiency gains in combination with new and evolving technology from today’s engines.
The next new airplane, the so-called Middle of the Market (MOM) aircraft, will look like today’s airplanes. The next plane after that, the replacements for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families, will probably be the last iterations of the planes of today. After that, new designs are likely to emerge, Epstein says.
Summary
- Tomorrow’s airplanes need to revise the fuselage design to increase efficiency.
- Airplanes after 2030 may look different than the tube-and-wing configurations of the past decades.
- Four engine airplanes may make a return.
Pontifications: Meet the “A320neo MAX 195”
By Scott Hamilton
April 6, 2015: There is a saying in America: keeping up with the Joneses.
This means that if your neighbor buys something, you have to go buy something similar to “keep up.”
In the case of commercial aviation, Keeping Up with the Jones has been an international past time for decades. Boeing developed the 247. Douglas developed the DC-2. Douglas developed the DC-4. Lockheed developed the Constellation. The DC-6 begot an improved Connie which prompted the DC-7 which in turn prompted the 1649 Connie. Boeing developed the 707 and Douglas the DC-8. And so it goes today, with the tit-for-tat between Airbus and Boeing.
So the latest: Boeing 737 Max 200, meet the Airbus “A320 Max 195.” Read more
Pratt & Whitney looks to MOM and beyond-Part 1
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Introduction
April 2, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Even as Pratt & Whitney prepares for the entry-into-service of its new
Alan Epstein, vice president of technology and environment, Pratt & Whitney
Geared Turbo Fan engine on the Airbus A320neo, it’s looking ahead to the most likely all new airplane that could be launched as early as 2018 with an EIS in 2025: the Middle of the Market (MOM) airplane, also most popularly known the as Boeing 757 replacement.
Except that this new airplane really isn’t a 757 replacement, but one that is more accurately a replacement for the Boeing 767-200 or the Airbus A300: a twin aisle, 250 passenger airplane with 4,000nm-5,000nm range.
Alan Epstein, vice president of technology and environment for Pratt & Whitney, believe a derivative of the GTF will be on this new airplane.
Summary
- The next new airplane will be lighter and capable of using smaller engines than those used on the 767-200 and A300.
- The MOM will look much like today’s tube-and-wing airplanes.
- The GTF by then will be 8%-10% more efficient than today’s GTF.
- Geared engines will become more common.
Pratt & Whitney sees long-term aviation growth, airline profits
Paul Adams, president of Pratt & Whitney. Source: UTC.
April 2, 2015: Paul Adams, president of Pratt & Whitney, provided an “state of the business” of PW during the second day of the Media Days. We follow our usual format of recapping his comments in paraphrased form.
- We have been in a significant investment phase over the last three years. The biggest is the GTF, We are transition from development to entry into service, first with the A320neo and then the Bombardier CSeries and then the other programs.
- We’ll be driving to increase the aftermarket service.
- 2014 was a transformational year, certifying nine engines (GTF and non-commercial engines). 2015 will be an extremely busy year with flight testing with 10 airframers on four continents.
- The health of commercial aviation is healthy and will continue well into the future. This is driven by urbanization and that only 17% of world’s population has been on an airplane.
- Oil cost has helped make the airlines profitable and so has consolidation.
Bombardier CS300 analysis vs A319neo, 737-7
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 29, 2015, c. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s big bet in the aeronautics sector, CSeries, is well into flight testing, now more than half way toward the 2,400 hours required by Transport Canada before certification can be granted. The first aircraft to be certified will be the smaller 110 seat CS100 but the market is most interested in the larger 135 seat CS300, which has 63% of present orders and commitments, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Cseries largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.
Bombardier’s new CEO, Alan Bellemare, told reporters last week that the CS100 would be certified during 2015 with entry into service slipping into 2016. The CS300, which is a direct challenger to Airbus’ A319neo and Boeing’s 737-7, should follow six months after CS100. With the CS300 in flight testing and going into service next summer, we decided to have a deeper look at CS300 and its competitors.
Summary
- A319 and 737-7 are shrinks of the market’s preferred models, A320 and 737-8, and as such not the most efficient models.
- The CS300 is the series center-point and it shows. The modern design beats the Airbus and Boeing designs on most counts.
- Part of the modern concepts in CSeries is the well-conceived Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared turbofan.
- PW’s 73 in fan version of the PW1000G for CSeries is slightly less efficient that the 81 in version for A319neo but CS300 lower weight makes sure this is more than compensated for.
Bjorn’s Corner: Two in cockpit makes sense
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 27, 2015; As we informed yesterday, the Germanwing’s co-pilot had a pause in his training at Lufthansa’s pilot school in Bremen during 2009. Further details have since been revealed by, among others, the Dusseldorf’s prosecutors office. The leave for Andreas Lubitz, the co-pilot that flew 4U9525 to ground, due to sickness, from pilot training in 2009 was a long one; sources talk about 18 months.
Germanwings; co-pilot deliberately crashed aircraft, had burnout during training.
March 26, 2015, update 3: The Marseilles prosecutor Brice Robin confirmed mid-day that the co-pilot, Andreas Lubitz 28, from Montabaur Germany, deliberately put the autopilot on descent in an act to crash the aircraft.
The prosecutors office has a full transcript of the Flight Voice Recorder’s recording on what happened in and around the cockpit of 4U9525 until impact with ground. He says the co-pilot’ breathing could be heard on the recording at all times but he did not say anything. He was therefore alive at the impact with ground. Read more
Update (3), Germanwings: Authorities confirms co-pilot deliberately crashed aircraft.
Update March 26, 2015: The Marseilles prosecutor Brice Robin has confirmed that the co-pilot, Andreas Lubitz 28, from Montabaur Germany, put the autopilot on descent and was alive at the impact with ground, the accident is now turning from an involuntary to voluntary manslaughter investigation says the prosecutor.
He further revealed that the co-pilots breath can be heard on the tape as can the calls from ATC and the Captains efforts to enter the cockpit. The autopilots “Pull Up, Pull Up” can also be heard as the ground proximity warning triggered. Passengers screaming just before impact can also be heard. The co-pilot did not say anything but his breath is heard until impact. Research has failed to show any terrorist connections for Andreas Lubitz says Robin.
French news is now analyzing possible reasons for this act by the co-pilot pictured here in front of Golden Gate bridge:
Flightradar24 has a private receiver network for the aircraft’s intelligent transponder of type ADS-B. They now confirm that the aircraft’s autopilot was manually changed from 38,000 to 96 ft at 09:30:55 UTC.
March 25, 2015: In a breathtaking, stunning revelation, the New York Times reported today that an investigator of the Germanwings accident says the Cockpit Voice Recorder indicates one pilot was out of the cockpit and was unable to get back in.
The pilot can be heard initially knocking on the door to gain reentry, then pounding on the door and yelling to the other pilot. No response.
The scene is horrific to contemplate: the passengers must have heard the locked-out pilot and became increasingly alarmed as the plane descended from 38,000 ft to impact at around 6,000 ft.
This scenario immediately raises two possibilities: an intentional act by the pilot remaining in the cockpit; or an incapacitating medical emergency occurred.
We spoke with John Cox of Safety Operating Systems and a former Airbus A320 captain to discuss this latest news. Cox is also a safety analyst for the NBC network in the US.