Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044 June 12, 2025
- Paris Air Show preview: Don’t look for big news June 11, 2025
- P&W: the troubled GTF will be the best engine for the next single-aisle airplane June 11, 2025
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by Steel or Electrical wire, Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 23, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we now look at practical implementations after discussing the authority of the flight control system last week.
As before we compare the classical 737 system to the A320 FBW system.
Figure 1. The two mechanical control pitch systems of the 737 are visible in the upper left. Each side has a complete system shown at the lower part of the figure (except for the trim which has dual wire sets but one actuator motor/drum). Source: Boeing.
Opportunity and challenges of a 787-10ER
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 22, 2019, © Leeham News: By 2024 the 777-300ER will have been in service for 20 years and the 777-200ER 27 years.
United Airlines 787-10. Credit: United Airlines.
LNA was the first to report the 777-8 entry-into-service will slip by at least two years. Boeing confirmed a delay in the 777-8 development, but not the timeline. Further delays (or an outright cancellation) for the passenger 777-8 are a real possibility. Boeing faces the prospect of not having a latest generation offering in the 330-370 seat market at a time demand for such aircraft is expected to pick up.
As part of the Air New Zealand commitment to purchase eight Boeing 787-10s, Boeing and General Electric are increasing the maximum takeoff weight to add more range.
In a similar fashion to the 777-300ER 20 years ago, Boeing might improve the 787-10 further to turn it into a fully-fledged ER variant. We will analyze the rationale for launching such variant and the challenges Boeing needs to overcome.
Summary
- Remediate a product gap
- Opportunities arising from surging 777 retirements
- A mixed track record of previous stretches and range improvements
- Target range for the 787-10
- Challenges associated with achieving those targets
Read more
Pontifications: Trump-China trade war hits Boeing
Aug. 19, 2019 © Leeham News: There have been no widebody orders placed by China with Boeing since President Trump launched a trade war in March 2018, hurting American’s biggest exporter and affecting the US balance of trade.
In fact, there have been no announced orders by China with Boeing since October 2017. Only 22 China orders were announced in 2017.
Boeing has a large number of Unidentified 737s listed on its website. It is widely believed that China accounts for perhaps as many as 25% of these, but Boeing won’t comment.
China historically accounted for between 25% and 33% of Boeing’s annual deliveries.
Since 2011, China took delivery of more than 170 widebody passenger and freighter jets, or 9.3% of all widebodies delivered by Boeing.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 16, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we this week discuss the Flight Control System’s authority to execute maneuvers by its different parts and why the authority of these parts is a fundamental parameter when designing the system.
Figure 1. Embraer Phenom 300’s Yaw damper rudder. Source: Embraer.
Will the A220 drive the trans-Atlantic fragmentation to smaller jets? Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 15, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Airbus is increasing the Gross Weight of its A220 variants by 5,000lb from 2H2020. It is to increase the already long range of the aircraft according to Airbus.
We looked at the typical trans-Atlantic routes this longer-range capability enabled last week. Now we explore further route areas and compare the A220 economics to the Boeing 737-8 and Airbus A321LR.
Summary:
- Last week we saw the A220 could open trans-Atlantic routes from West Europe to East Canada and North-East US.
- This week we explore further alternatives and explore the economics of the A220 as an aircraft for long and thin routes.
Stored A330s, 777 Classics offer alternative to new orders
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Aug. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: Slow sales of the Airbus A330neo, A350 and 777X this year are the result of a dip in the order cycle, A330ceos and 777-300ERs coming off lease and route fragmentation from more capable single-aisle aircraft that are much cheaper to 
operate and which allow long, thin routes to be served.
Airbus and Boeing have yet another aspect to contend with: stored A330s and 777s that have come off lease or, in the case of Etihad Airways, grounded its late model A330-300s in a fleet restructuring related to its poor financial condition.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 9, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”), we this week turn to the actual Flight control system after covering the infrastructure needs last week. We could see the FBW required a higher redundancy Hydraulic and Electrical infrastructure. Why we will come to.
Now we look at the control principles for classical control systems like the Boeing 737 system and FBW system like the Airbus A320 system.
Figure 1. The control axis and control surfaces of a 737. Source: Boeing.
Will the A220 drive the trans-Atlantic fragmentation to smaller jets?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 8, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Airbus announced a hike of the Gross Weight of the A220 by 5,000lb at the Paris Air Show in June. It will be available for aircraft delivered from 2H2020.
“It was at the request of Customers, they wanted more range” said Rob Dewar, Head of Engineering & Customer Support for the A220, when we talked after the announcement. Will these customers use the capability to cross the Atlantic, driving the long-range fragmentation to ever-smaller cabins? Does it make economic sense compared to an A321LR or a 737 MAX 8? We check with our performance model.
Summary:
- The A220s have enough range to cover interesting parts of East US and West Europe with the increased Maximum Takeoff Weights.
- The key question is; how economical will they be compared to Boeing’s 737 MAX 8 and Airbus A321LR.
Boeing faces weak sales, production gap for 777X
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Now open to all readers.
Aug. 5, 2019, © Leeham News: Design issues with the giant General Electric Aviation GE9X are causing untimely headaches for the Boeing 777X program, at a time when the 737 MAX is consuming the company.
The MAX grounding and longer-than-expected fixes and Return to Service (RTS) is overshadowing challenges with the 787 skyline, where a production rate of 14/mo is burning through the backlog faster than new orders are coming in.
The 777X is facing skyline challenges as well. Sales have been slow. One major customer in the Middle East is undergoing a financial and fleet restructuring and another publicly said it will reduce 777X orders if it places a new order for 787-10s.
The 777X delivery schedule has slid to the right due to the engine issues and the 777-8 is a niche airplane that may have a greater future as a freighter than it does as a passenger model.
Pontifications: Good A220 endorsement, but Airbus still has cleaning up to do
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 5, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus last week won a big, validating commitment from Air France-KLM Group for 60 orders and more options for the A220-300.
The contract won’t be firm until later this year, but the AF Memorandum of Understanding (when converted) brings the A220 order book to 611. There are some other commitments that haven’t yet been converted to orders.
Through mid-July, there were 86 A220s in service. There were 465 Letters of Intent, MOUs and Options before the Air France deal was announced.
But of those firm orders, 110 of them aren’t so firm. In fact, some of them really shouldn’t even be on the books.