Pontifications: Big sigh of relief at Bombardier

Hamilton KING5_2

By Scott Hamilton

May 2, 2016, © Leeham Co.: To say that the order from Delta Air Lines last Thursday for 75+50 CS100s with conversion rights to the CS300s was welcome news for Bombardier is an understatement.

Bombardier has a superb airplane in the C Series. The passenger seats are the most comfortable coach seats of any manufacturers, better than the Airbus A320 and way more comfortable than the Boeing 737. With apologies to Embraer, the C Series is even marginally better than the Embraer E-Jet, which is very good. Read more

Bjorn’s Corner: C Series flight controls

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

29April 2016, ©. Leeham Co: With the order by Delta Air Lines, the Bombardier C Series has taken the step up to be a viable alternative to Airbus’ and Boeing’s single aisle 130-150 seat aircraft.

In my description of airliners’ flight control and Flight Management Systems (FMS), I have focused on the established mainline single aisle players. Time to change that; C Series has arrived and will stay in the mainline segment.

Why 130 seats as a limit? Because below 130 seats there are a number of additional players (Embraer, Sukhoi, Mitsubishi…) and we can’t describe them all right now.

Now to how Bombardier has implemented the flight controls, autopilot and FMS for the C Series. In fact, we will look at how they have made the C Series cockpit, Figure 1.

C Series flight deck

Figure 1. C Series flight deck. Source: Bombardier.

I haven’t flown the C Series yet (working on it!) but I have been able to glean quite a bit over time and spent quite some time in the cockpit with the Bombardier test pilots at the Paris Air Show.

So here is a shot at describing the C Series control philosophies and capabilities and how they mimic/differ from Airbus and Boeing.

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Bombardier wins breakthrough C Series order, from Delta

April 28, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: At long last, after years of disappointment for that big, breakthrough order, Bombardier finally got it: a huge deal from a blue chip

Delta Air Lines ordered 75 CS100s and optioned 50 more. This is the breakthrough order Bombardier has been waiting years to receive. Source: Delta Air Lines.

airline, and one from North America: a firm order for 75 C30S100s and options for 50 more from Delta Air Lines.

Delta has conversion rights to the CS300. Bombardier now has more than 300 firm orders, although many of these are iffy, and commitments for up to 500 more.

This is the order that observers, analysts and aviation geeks have been waiting for during much of the development and production of the C Series.

The announcement came concurrently with highlights of BBD’s first quarter results.

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Boeing 1Q results reveal “underlying strength”

Dennis Muilenburg

Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of The Boeing Co.

April 27, 2016: Boeing delivered better financial results in first quarter that reflect “underlying strength” in the company, said Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of The Boeing Co., on the first quarter earnings call.

Excluding charges of $243m pre-tax charges on the KC-46A tanker, earnings per share equaled last year. Charges related principally to engineering change to the completed tankers, required after flight testing began. Muilenburg said the program remains “on path” to meet the commitment to deliver 18 tankers by August 2017. With a potential program of 400 deliveries over the life of the program, Muilenburg said the program should be profitable.

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Boeing takes new charges on tanker, 747-8

April 27, 2016: Boeing took new charges on the KC-46A tanker and 747-8 programs, but not on the 787, its first quarter financial results announced.

Boeing took a $162m pre-tax charge on the tanker at Boeing Commercial airplanes. A charge of $80m was taken on the Defense side of the business for the tanker. Another $70 pre-tax charge was taken on the 747-8 program.

Cash levels were lower than that at year end, due to the shareholder buyback, lower deliveries and the “timing” of cash flow, the company said. With marketable securities, Boeing ended the quarter with $8.4bn cash and equivalents vs $12.1bn at year end. Year-over-year, cash and securities were $8.4bn to $9.6bn.

Initial analyst reaction follows.

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737-7X, 737-10 studies illustrate Boeing weakness in single-aisle market

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Introduction

Boeing LogoApril 27, 2016 © Leeham Co.: News that Boeing plans to develop a “737-7.5” MAX, following on the prospect of a “737-10” stretch of the 737-9 illustrates just how weak its single aisle product strategy has become.

The Wall Street Journal revealed last week that Boeing is planning the airplane, which is larger than the current 737-7 but smaller than the 737-8. Jon Ostrower, the reporter, dubbed the plane the 737-7.5. Internally, it’s called the 737-7X.

Summary

  • The 737-7 MAX has proved a sales dud. There are just 60 orders from two established airlines, Southwest and WestJet, and one start-up carrier that ordered just five.
  • Bombardier appears on the cusp of landing an order from Delta Air Lines for up to 125 CS300s, the direct competitor to the 7 MAX, but this is only one element in Boeing’s consideration to grow into the “7.5.”
  • Rather than being a growth of the 7 MAX, the 7.5 will be a shrink of the 737-8. This is a less costly and more efficient method for Boeing, but shrinks are never the best solution for the operator.
  • LNC reported in February that Boeing had decided to recommit to the 7 MAX after nearly losing an order to Bombardier for the C Series. Instead, UAL ordered the 737-700 at an unusually low price and other considerations. Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, called the deal a blocking move to BBD. The 7.5 appears to be the course Boeing has chosen.
  • Pursuit of a 737-10, a stretch of the 737-9 that may include a new wing, larger engines and other changes, is an acknowledgement the 737-9 is losing the battle for this size aircraft to the Airbus A321neo. But Boeing’s challenges to develop a 737-10 are vexing. More than a year ago, LNC outlined these.

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Airbus deliveries first USA-made A321ceo, to JetBlue

JBLU A321 BluesMobile

The first Airbus A321ceo assembled at the Mobile (AL) plant was delivered today to jetBlue. Photo from Airways News via Twitter.

April 25, 2016: The first Airbus A320 family aircraft assembled at the Airbus Mobile (AL) plant was delivered today to jetBlue. The A321ceo, which the airline named BluesMobile, is the first of 10 A321s now in production at the plant. Eight more A321s will be delivered to American Airlines. Spirit Airlines gets the 10th.

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Pontifications: Earnings week for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer

Hamilton KING5_2

By Scott Hamilton

April 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer having their first quarter earnings call this week. Bombardier also has its Annual General Meeting concurrent with its 1Q earnings on Friday.

The big anticipation will be with Bombardier.

Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported Delta Air Lines was going to order 75+50 C Series from BBD. Delta, on its 1Q earnings call, said it had nothing to announce but would have more to say at its investors day. This is May 16.

But at the same time, BBD postponed its AGM and 1Q call from the 28th to the 29th. Delta’s board of directors meets on the 28th. Previously, BBD postponed by one day its year-end earnings call to coincide with Air Canada, which announced an order for 45 C Series, plus options.

Is Bombardier’s rescheduling another harbinger of the Delta order, or will Delta hold off any announcement until that May 16 investors day?

Or could Delta announce the Bombardier order Friday and the widely reported, expected order for 30-37 Airbus A321ceos?

The world aviation geeks wonder.

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Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500? Part 3.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 25, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We will now finish our series where we look into how big an undertaking a CS300 stretch to a 150 seater would be for Bombardier.

The C Series existing models, the CS100 and CS300, were designed with the CS300 as the main family member. That makes a stretch to a CS500 a pretty straight-forward job from a wing perspective, only minor adjustments are needed.

The problem area for the stretch is the fuselage. The C Series is a five abreast aircraft and at 150 seats the aircraft will have more than 30 seat rows. The resulting long fuselage limits the available rotation angle at takeoff.

Having discussed the different actions that can be taken to handle this problem in Part 2, we will now check the implications for the takeoff field length with our performance model. The model will also show if the engine takeoff thrust needs to be increased.

Finally, we will use the model to estimate the fuel consumption and the range of a CS500 derivative.

Summary

  • A CS500 derivative made from the CS300 is a pretty straight-forward stretch project.
  • Special care has to be taken with the risk for tails strikes from a longer fuselage.
  • With the discussed actions in place, the field performance of a CS500 is still very good, even though it can’t compete with a CS300.
  • The range would be less than a CS300 but the aircraft would still be capable of five hour missions.
  • Fuel consumption would be higher per trip but lower per seat than a CS300. It would give existing 150 seaters strong competition on efficiency.

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Fewer A350s in 2017-18, says Cowen & Co.; not so, says Airbus

April 21, 2016: Airbus will assemble fewer A350s than planned in 2017 and 2018, according to a short note to clients by the Cowen & AirbusNewCo. obtained by LNC.

Not so, says Airbus.

The investment bank was commenting on supplier Hexcel.

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