Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: The crystal ball
By Scott Hamilton
May 30, 2016, © Leeham Co.: We at Leeham Co. and Leeham News and Comment take some risk when we make analyses, forecasts, projections and predictions. These often put us out on a limb, open us to criticism and even ridicule and as often as not really pisses off those companies that are the target of such predictions.
Some recent events and news stories caught my eye that validated something I predicted eleven years ago.
First, the set up.
Dissecting Wide-Body deliveries through 2030
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Introduction
May 26, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A softening of trans-Atlantic air traffic, with declining yields and passenger demand, raises anew concerns that there is an oversupply and over-ordering of twin-aisle aircraft.
Air Lease Corp. addressed this concern at its May 19 investors day, arguing that growth plus retirements over the next 25 years more than supports the orders.
ALC, which is headed by Steve Udvar-Hazy and John Plueger, considered two of the leaders of the lessor industry, note that there is an average of about 150 wide-bodies approaching 25 years in age each year for the next 20 years. Coupled with long-haul traffic growth, ALC—which has a modest number of wide-body orders—is comfortable with the future supply-demand.
We’ve dissected the known delivery dates of wide-bodies at Airbus and Boeing, using the Ascend data base as of January. Wide-body orders have been announced subsequently, but not all have been firmed up and the total number won’t materially affect the trend lines.
Figure 1. Source: Air Lease Corp. Click on image to enlarge.
Summary
- We look at announced production rates by 2020 of Airbus and Boeing. We don’t include our own forecasts.
- We look at the defined delivery dates of the A330, A350, A380, 747-8, 777 and 787. These are all models, including ceo/neo and Classic/X.
- We look at factors that indicate a softening of wide-body demand across the Atlantic.
How good is a MAX 7X and why would it replace the original? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 23, 2016, ©. Leeham Co:In Part 1 to Part 3 of this article series,we looked into the reasons behind that Boeing is considering changing the 737-7 MAX into a slightly larger 737-7X.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 737 MAX 7. Source: Boeing.
When an aircraft gets larger, its operating costs increase, everything else being equal. At the same time, it can take more passengers. This will increase the aircraft’s revenue generating capability, assuming the network can generate the traffic level needed.
To understand the difference in revenue capability for the 7 and 7X we will now develop their Direct Operating Cost (DOC) and compare these with the revenue generation capability of the aircraft. This gives the margin capability and one can establish where the cross over point would be between 737-7 and 7X with respect to margin for the airline.
Summary
- We develop the Direct Operating Costs (DOC) for the 737-7 and -7X.
- We also develop the revenue streams of the aircraft over typical missions.
- When compared, the margin of the aircraft will result and it will be possible to define the extra passenger count needed for the 7X to deliver the same margin as the presently defined 7 MAX.
- We then can establish the revenue upside potential for a 737-7X over the 7.
How good is a MAX 7X and why would it replace the original? Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 16, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 1 and Part 2 of the article series we have described the rational for Boeing to change the definition of the 737-7 MAX into something that has the working name of 737-7X. This is a 737-7 variant that is based on a shortened 737-8.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 737 MAX 7. Source: Boeing
In the previous articles we defined a probable size for such a cut down 737-8. The size is determined by economical criteria where the second most dominant cost in an airlines operation, the crewing cost, is the sizing criteria. These costs have a step increase if the aircraft’s seating go beyond 150 seats.
We sized the 737-7X cabin size (and therefore fuselage length) to avoid such cost increases. In this article, we will compare the resulting main data for a 7X to the original 7 and compare their fuel efficiencies.
Summary
- A 737-7X will be a larger and heavier aircraft than the original MAX 7.
- As such it will consume more fuel per mission; its aircraft fuel mile costs will be higher.
- The key comparison for an airline is the fuel consumption per seat mile for its missions. It would be vital that this is lower for a 7X than the presently defined 7.
- We check if this is the case with our proprietary performance model.
Mitsubishi’s MRJ test flying making good progress
By Bjorn Fehrm in Tokyo
May 18, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation (MAC) announced that their MRJ flight test program is now going well. Mitsubishi presented the status update at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders conference (ISTAT 2016 Asia) in Tokyo.
Figure 1. Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) during flight testing. Source: Mitsubishi.
Mitsubishi Aircraft rocked the confidence of the market with announcing a delay in their program of over a year before Christmas. At the same time, MAC also announced that they will rebuild their test aircraft as they had seen that the original design did not meet ultimate load criteria.
As presented in one of my Friday Corners, that announcement was being too forthcoming. Other OEMs would not have informed the market of the minor modifications needed to make the aircraft able to withstand ultimate load (150% of the highest load the aircraft should ever see in service).
MAC’s Director of Strategic Marketing, Hideyuki Kamiya, gave an update of the flight test program at the conference and later answered some specific questions from LNC on the sidelines of the conference. Read more
Air freight continues to lag, IATA says
March 18, 2016: The air cargo market continues to struggle, according to data compiled by the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) in its first quarter report for information primarily in the fourth quarter and full year of 2015.
Freight capacity in the bellies of passenger airliners far outstripped main-deck cargo capacity, IATA reports. Load factors for main deck freighters continue to hover in the low 40% range, IATA data shows, extending a long trend. But capacity was also added during the period as freighters emerged from storage, adding to global capacity.
ANA CEO opens ISTAT Asia 2016
By Bjorn Fehrm in Tokyo
May 18, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The CEO of All Nippon Airways (ANA) Osamu Shinobe opened the 2016 International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT) conference in Tokyo today, in front of some 700 delegates. Shinobe presented an overview of the airline’s recent success and its future plans. This includes the plans for use of the three Airbus A380 that the airline bought in January this year.
ANA is Japan’s most successful carrier in recent years, leading the incumbent Japan Airlines in revenue and profits since 2010. The airline had its historical base in a large domestic market share but has been complementing that with an aggressive international expansion in recent years.
All Nippon Airways Boeing 787 in special Starwars livery. Source: ANA
Its landmark buy of Boeing 787 Dreamliners shall be seen in this context. The 787, for which ANA was the launch customer, is the kingpin in ANA’s expansion plans, where an expanding international network shall feed the established domestic network. Read more
Pontifications: Improbably, 787 surplus develops
By Scott Hamilton
May 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: As improbable as it sounds, a short-term surplus of Boeing 787s has developed, say several market officials. Lease rates in some cases on 787-8s and 787-9s have dropped below $900,000/mo for 787-8s and somewhat above this figure for 787-9s as lessors compete with Boeing to place airplanes.
Analysts covering leasing companies, both publicly traded and privately owned, have also heard about falling lease rates for 787s.
“However, this all hinges on the cost and learning curve assumptions, which are difficult to get confident with considering we hear 787 lease rates are under pressure, and there are slots opening up, which can impact timing of future deliveries,” Canaccord wrote in a research note last week after the Boeing Investors Day in which officials outlined the plans to recover $29bn in deferred production costs. Other analysts also report hearing of lease pricing pressure on the 787s.
- Slow sales for the Boeing 787, reports Reuters.
How good is a MAX 7X and why would it replace the original? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 16, 2016, ©. Leeham Co:In Part 1 we described the driving forces behind Boeing’s investigations into changing the definition of the 737 MAX 7.
There are good reasons to make the -7 model larger. The passenger market is moving the average size of the cabins upwards by about 2-3 seats per year. Boeing therefore made the middle model, the -800 and later the MAX 8 larger than the 737-400. It went from 146 seats in two classes to 162 seats.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 737 MAX 7. Source: Boeing
But the -700 and therefore the MAX 7 stayed the same size as the predecessor, the -300 at 126 seats. As described in our last article, this is not an ideal size. You don’t amortize the cost of the aircraft’s crew over an optimal number of passengers at normal loadfactors and you have a smaller number of very specific 737-7 in your fleet. We now discuss what would be a more competitive definition for a 737 MAX 7.
Summary
- The 737-700 and MAX 7, as presently defined, is sized at 126 seats two class.
- A more competitive sizing would be closer to 150 seats in order to maximize the utilization of the regulatory mandated aircraft crew resources.
- The exact sizing will depend on how many seats the dominant customer, Southwest Airlines, wants to have in its one class economy seating, which uses a generous seat pitch of 31-32 inches.