Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

There's more to real news than a news release.

Odds and Ends: Embraer reports weak quarter; MRJ FTV #1 assembly; JAL, ANA politics

Embraer’s Third Quarter: Embraer delivered fewer commercial airplanes in the third quarter than had been expected. The maker of E-Jets and the E-Jet E2 re-engined versions due beginning in 2018 listed its deliveries and backlog in its press release. Analysts expects 22 E-Jets would be delivered in the quarter. But the backlog is up 44% year-over-year, largely on the strength of the launch of the E2 (150 orders, 100 of which are for the smallest E-175 E2 and 25 each for the E-190/195 E2), and orders from Republic Airways Holdings and SkyWest Airlines for the current generation of E-Jets. The E-175 remains to most frequently-ordered airplane.

Although Embraer is expanding the size of the E-195-E2 by up to 12 seats, orders have been few. The E-190 has proved a better-selling model than the E-195.

EJet_E2 Compare

Source: Embraer

Officials expect to have a healthy fourth quarter delivery stream.

Mitsubishi MRJ: Assembly for the first Mitsubishi MRJ Flight Test Vehicle (to borrow Bombardier’s term for the CSeries) is underway. The first delivery was originally planned for this year; it’s now planned for 2017, four years late. This rivals Boeing’s 787 and exceeds the Airbus A350 and as yet the CSeries.

JAL, ANA Politics: Reuters has an analysis about the suspicion politics may have been involved in the decision by Japan Airlines to buy the Airbus A350 and the pending order by ANA of an Airbus or Boeing airplane.

 17 Comments

 Posted on October 15, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi

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Odds and Ends: Airbus optimistic on A380 sales; second A350 joins test fleet; CSeries factory progress

A380 Sales: Orders for the Airbus A380 have been dismal, but Tom Enders, CEO of Airbus parent EADS, sees a turn-around in sales. With the forthcoming Boeing 777-9X, which at 400 seats is considerably smaller than the 525-seat A380, Airbus sees the need to undertake Performance Improvement Packages (PIPs) to improve the economics of the A380. Tim Clark, President of Emirates Airlines and the largest customer by for the A380, has publicly said he wants to see the A380’s engine makers (Engine Alliance in his case) incorporate newer technology from the GEnx and the 777X’s GE9X and Pratt & Whitney’s GTF into the GP7200. The GP7200 is a JV of GE and Pratt & Whitney.

Airbus is also offering an 11-abreast coach seating in the A380, which would add 40 more seats and lower the cost per available seat mile (CASM) accordingly.

The A380 has proved more economical than Airbus expected, but needs a large load factor of at least 75% (393 passengers at the 525 seat configuration) to be profitably, Enders said. In today’s environment, this is achievable but it also demonstrates the risk inherent to Very Large Aircraft (VLA). According to our airline sourcing that has analyzed the airplanes, smaller aircraft, such as the 777X, Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing 787-10 have similar seat mile economics but lower plane-mile costs without the capacity risk. One airline tells us that “if you can fill the A380 and 747-8,” the airplanes have their place. The four-engine VLAs also are better in the hot-and-hgih environment for engine-out and field performance. But clearly these high capacity and hot-and-high markets are limited.

Enders also commented on the progress of the A350 flight test program. This story has detail.

A350 Flight Testing: The second Airbus A350 flight test vehicle has joined the test program.

CSeries Factory: Airchive has a long look at the program in building the new factory for the Bombardier CSeries.

 53 Comments

 Posted on October 14, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney

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Production wars coming: Airbus v Boeing

If some industry observers are concerned about the prospect of over-production now, the current state of affairs may only be the tip of the iceberg.

Airbus CEO Fabrice Bergier says he expects to boost production of the A320 and A350 families over the next few years, overtaking Boeing by 2018.

Airbus currently produces the A320 at a rate of 42 per month. The A330 rate is 10/mo and the A380 at 3/mo. Production of the first customer-destined A350 is to begin by the end of this year, with a targeted delivery in the second half of next year. Ramp-up to an initial production target of 10/mo is planned over a four year period, but the wing factory in Broughton, Wales, has a capacity for 13/mo, inferring a greater rate is already planned. Airbus is considering a second A350 production line, largely focused on the A350-1000.

Boeing currently produces the 737 at 38/mo, going to 42/mo next year. The 777 rate is 8.3/mo and the 747-8F/I rate is 1.75/mo. The 767, driven by the USAF tanker, is 1.5/mo. The 787 is ramping up to 10.mo, with a target by year end, but we believe this will be more likely in Q12014.

Boeing has notified the supply chain to consider higher rates for the 737, 767 and 787. We posted the chart below last June, reflecting the higher planning rates.

Read more

 28 Comments

 Posted on October 13, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Sukhoi

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Odds and Ends: Flight test progress for A350, 787-9, CSeries; New A320, 737 cabins; JetBlue tails

Flight Test Programs: Here’s a quick update on the flight test programs underway right now:

Airbus A350XWB: The sole flying test platform in the A350XWB program has accumulated  150 hours since its first flight just before the Paris Air Show in June. The second test plane is due to enter the program this month. The program is believed to have completed its VMU (unstick) testing.

Boeing 787-9:  The second member of the 787 family has accumulated 40 flying hours since its first flight on Sept. 17. Aviation Week has a good article on the flight test progress. The airplane is nearing its flutter testing.

Bombardier CSeries: Flight Test Vehicle 1 returned to the skies Tuesday after two weeks since its first flight Sept. 16. Further software upgrades and analyzing test results were stated as the reasons for the gap. The airplane reached 25,000 feet and Mach 0.60 in its second test flight, which lasted four hours.

New A320/737 cabins: Interior maker Zodiac has designed retrofit cabins for the Boeing 737NG and the Airbus A320 families. The 737NG cabin is similar to the Boeing Sky Interior installed on every new 737, but Boeing didn’t offer this as a retrofit to the installed base. Zodiac’s design actually carries more luggage than Boeing’s. The Zodiac A320 cabin is similar.

APEX reported in 2012 that Zodiac had designed an A320 cabin. Zodiac has this detail of its 737NG cabin offering.

Only Qantas Airways has purchased Zodiac’s 737 interior and so far there are no customers for the A320 version. But this is about to change. Here is the story we wrote for APEX.

JetBlue Tails: The airline’s blog has a nice compilation of all its tail liveries here.

 44 Comments

 Posted on October 4, 2013 by

 Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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United’s new effort for airline passenger exerience comfort

United Airlines announced it is adopting a new seat in coach to improve the passenger experience.

Its press release is here.

UAL’s overview:

The new design includes:

  • Bold elements, such as multi-tonal leather seat covers, distinctive double-stitch patterns, sculpted contouring and a new United-branded tag
  • More ergonomic and supportive cushioning and additional seat-back storage space in United Economy Plus and United Economy
  • Technology that makes the seats more environmentally friendly by reducing seat weight and volume, contributing to less fuel burn

UAL Seat

We’re impressed.

 10 Comments

 Posted on October 3, 2013 by

 Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier

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Odds and Ends: Bombardier and American; C919 EIS; Europe blinks

Bombardier and American Airlines: Bloomberg has an analysis of the campaign at American Airlines for a large regional jet order, and how vital it is to Bombardier to win the deal. Embraer won three previous important orders from the US major airlines, leaving American the last remaining prize in the near-term.

C919 Entry-into-Service: Reuters has an analysis about the Chinese effort to challenge Airbus and Boeing with the COMAC C919, and the continued challenges to do so. EIS is now figured for 2018.

Europe blinks on emissions: The European Union blinked on its long-running effort to force all airlines to pay a fine if they don’t meet emission standards. The effort met with international resistance, with China leading the way. Chinese orders for Airbus A320s and A330s had been held up. The Chinese earlier ordered the A320s, but still blocked A330 purchases by its airlines. We’ll see how quickly these orders come through.

 5 Comments

 Posted on October 3, 2013 by

 Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer

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Odds and Ends: CSeries concludes second flight; Boeing’s impact on WA State

CSeries second flight: It was two weeks and one day to the second flight of the Bombardier CSeries, quite a bit longer than the Boeing 787-9 and the Airbus A350. The lengthier time was subject to a fair amount of scrutiny by some observers.

We’re told that Flight Test Vehicle 1 was under-going software upgrades. The fly-by-wire aircraft had taken aloft in direct law flight mode. Some of the delay to first flight had to do with software upgrades.

Bombardier collected some noise data on the second flight.

Boeing’s impact on WA State: A new study outlines the impact of the current Boeing 777 family to Washington State, and it’s pretty big. The study was commissioned by the State to understand what needs to be done to win the assembly site for the 777X. A bi-partisan Legislative panel has been appointed by Gov. Jay Inslee as part of this effort.

Other stuff:

  • Long-time readers will remember that we’ve had the opportunity to take a couple of trips on the Trident submarines Alabama and Maryland. Our interest in submarines remains keen. So when we came across an article about the plans for the successor to the Ohio class SSBN, we decided to include it today. The features talk about fly-by-wire control, video monitoring instead of the periscope and a host of other whiz-bang modern technology.
  • Airbus Military handed over the first A400M to France. If we thought the development period of commercial airliners is tough these days, the A400M may set new standards for a military program: 30 years, according to Reuters. With the plans to end Boeing’s C-17 production in 2015, we hear Boeing is developing a smaller cargo/troop transport that will compete with the A400M and be a replacement for the smaller Lockheed Martin C-130.

 13 Comments

 Posted on October 2, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries

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Frontier sold to Franke group; what of Republic CSeries order?

It had become one of the worst-kept secrets: Indigo Partners, the investment group managed by Bill Franke, former CEO of America West Airlines, has purchased Frontier Airlines from Republic Airways Holdings.

Frontier assumes all the Airbus A320neo family orders outstanding.

Franke’s Indigo bought controlling interest in Spirit Airlines and transformed it into an Ultra Low Cost Carrier. Indigo sold its shares months ago and Franke and an associate resigned from the Board of Directors, and from then on speculation was rife Indigo was gearing up to buy Frontier. Frontier CEO David Siegel has been transforming Frontier into an ULCC, but Franke is likely to take to concept further.

Republic was the launch customer for 40+40 Bombardier CSeries, Inevitably, questions will arise over the future of these orders, since these were assumed to be for Frontier.

Our information is that Republic has plans for these airplanes apart from Frontier.

 1 Comment

 Posted on October 1, 2013 by

 AirInsight, Bombardier, CSeries, Frontier Airlines

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NTSB issues report of Southwest Airlines fuselage tear incident; and other stuff

The National Transportation Safety Board issued its report of the 2011 in-flight fuselage rip in a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-300. The flight made an emergency descent and landing at Yuma (AZ).

In other stuff:

  • CSeries Report: Bloomberg News has this video report interview with Bombardier’s Rob Dewar, who is in charge of the CSeries development.
  • Airbus: John Leahy is also interview by Bloomberg video, and offers a variety of views on traffic, the duopoly and emerging competitors. Note that Leahy makes a passing reference to the entry-into-service of the A350-900 at the “end” of 2014. This compares with information in the Ascend data base that the first delivery is scheduled for July 2014. In our post of EIS dates, we have the EIS in early 2015. It won’t take much for the EIS to slip from the end of next year to early the following year.
  • Gut bomb: We got such a kick out of this story that we had to include it. It’s about the Cinnabon, and it’s pure decadence.

 17 Comments

 Posted on September 27, 2013 by

 Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier

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LionAir says CSeries order coming: Montreal Gazette

The Montreal Gazette reports that LionAir of Indonesia expects to place an order for the Bombardier CSeries next year.

Bloomberg has some additional detail.

LionAir already has hundreds of orders outstanding from Airbus and Boeing and is essentially attempting to replicate the business model of AirAsia, with subsidiaries in a number of countries.

 4 Comments

 Posted on September 26, 2013 by

 Bombardier, CSeries

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