Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing still hopes for 737-7 certification this year, 737-10 next year and an Amended Type Certificate for the 777X June 5, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 15. Airframe for lower Induced drag June 2, 2023
- Boeing’s Calhoun: Be patient for a new airplane June 1, 2023
- Embraer gears for growth June 1, 2023
- Boeing SC construction underway for second 787 final assembly line May 31, 2023
Looking 15 years ahead for Airbus, Boeing
Oct. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The next 15 years won’t bring any relief to crowded airports and airplanes but nevertheless there are warning signs for the likes of Airbus, Boeing and the supply chain.
Michel Merluzeau
Looking ahead to 2030 will see aircraft production peaking early in the next decade but begin to fall off or the Big Two Original Equipment Manufacturers as new entrants begin to be felt, predicts Michel Merluzeau, an independent consultant.
Merluzeau presented his forecast yesterday to the British American Business Council Pacific Northwest chapter’s annual one-day conference in Seattle.
“I’m pretty comfortable about the next five years. I’m comfortable in the next five years. The five years after that,” Merluzeau said his confidence level declines because there are so many variables, ranging from issues within the industry to large ones outside it.
Bjorn’s Corner; The Chinese civil aircraft industry
By Bjorn Fehrm.
September 30, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we will now look at the Chinese civil aircraft industry.
The Chinese aero industry has similarities with the Russian industry in its overall structure. From the start of the industry in the 1950s, it was structured after the Soviet model of research institutes, design bureaus and production companies.
The difference to the Soviet Union was that its own Chinese aircraft designs only started in the 1970s. Before that, the industry built Soviet designs on license and then modified versions of licensed designs.
The first own aircraft designs were presented in the 1980s with a focus on military designs for the first 20 years. Read more
Russian-Chinese wide-body: Program responsibilities
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We will now finish our series about the Russian-Chinese wide-body with looking at who will have what role in the program.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
As we described in the initial article, “Background and outlook,” Russia and China have vastly different competencies when it comes to making a state of the art wide-body aircraft.
Russia has made airliners since the 1930s, including wide-body jets. China did not design its own jet aircraft (military or civil) until the mid-1980s. Most of the aircraft produced still today in China have their origin in Russian designs.
At the same time, we saw in the article about the market demand for the aircraft that the Chinese market is 90% of the home market. This makes for China demanding important parts of the aircraft’s production, and China has the money to invest in production facilities.
All this will influence how different parts of the project will be shared between Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
Summary:
- Russia and China enter the wide-body project with widely different knowledge bases.
- Russia has long time knowledge on how to develop and produce aircraft and their engines.
- China on the other hand has the market for the aircraft.
- China also know a lot about serial production and have money to invest. Read more
Pontifications: Hypocrisy and illegal subsidies at the WTO
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 26, 2016, © Leeham Co.: There are two airplanes under development that are in the 150-220 passenger space.
Both are under development by companies that get state aid and make no bones about it. The aid would likely be found in violation of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
But the most vociferous opponent to illegal subsidies hasn’t said a peep about it.
Neither has the opponent’s rival—although this company publicly recognizes the irony of it all.
I call it hypocrisy.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: Aircraft performance
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 19, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 4 of the article series, we put together an assumed complete Chinese-Russian wide-body aircraft with fuselage, wing, engines, etc. It is now time to understand what kind of performance that can be expected, given the data we have from the wide-body partners, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
Figure 1. Concept for new widebody airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
We will combine these data with the ones we have deduced as plausible to fill the gaps, given the time frame and technology level that UAC and COMAC intend to use.
Out will come a first estimate of what kind of performance such an aircraft can have in terms of efficiency and payload versus range capability.
Summary:
- We can use all the data we have gathered to make a first estimate of the efficiency of the Russian-Chinese wide-body.
- We also have enough information to do a first payload-range diagram and to compare that with the diagram for Boeing’s 787-9.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 15, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 3 of this series, we identified the type and size of wing we would have on a new Russian-Chinese wide-body. It’s now time to go through all the considerations around the engines for the aircraft.
Figure 1. Concept for new widebody airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The aircraft would enter the market around 2025. We would have to decide on what size engine that would be needed, what engines would be available at the time and could this project motivate any new engine developments.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-body as outlined would require engines in the size class of the Boeing 787-9/10.
- GE and Rolls-Royce have been mentioned as engine suppliers. The question would be: will they offer updated 787 engines or new designs and will Russia compete with its announced engine project for the aircraft?
Russian-Chinese wide-body; The aircraft Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 08, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having covered the possibilities of reusing parts of the Il-96 fuselage for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s now time to look at the existing IL-96 wing and how far this is from a modern design.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The intent is not to propose that the existing wing is reused but rather to check the technology level against western designs and how big a leap it will be for the partners to make a modern high performance wing for the aircraft.
Summary:
- The IL-96 wing is roughly on the technological level of the Airbus A340-300 wing with a bit lower aspect ratio.
- The dimensions are close to what is needed for the new wide-body but sweep and aspect ratio needs to be changed for a new wing.
- A wing for a 2025 long range wide-body also need a more modern construction technology than classical aluminum alloys.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 01, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 1, we concluded that the existing Il-96 fuselage cross section would be suitable for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body. This means that a lot of experience and existing designs for fuselage sections can be re-used.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
Most importantly, it means that mock-ups and cabin sections can be made early in the project to start work on new and better cabin equipment. This is an area where the partners really lag their western competitors.
We will now look at what aircraft capacities can be conceived with the existing Il-96-300 and -400 fuselages and what changes will be necessary to achieve the targeted sizes that Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) have communicated.
Summary:
- The IL-96 fuselage can be re-used for a Russian-Chinese wide-body.
- The existing IL96-300 cabin is on the small side whereas the Il-96-400 cabin is a bit larger than needed.
- The project will likely choose an intermediate size fuselage to reach the targeted 250 to 280 passenger capacity.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We have now covered the capabilities of the joint venture partners for a Russian-Chinese wide-body and its possible market. Now we will look at what kind of aircraft such a cooperation can create, given technology and other constraints.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
There have been bits and pieces leaked to media from Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
We will look at what has been said and combine that with our knowledge of existing and future technological capabilities of the parties to make predictions for what aircraft the project can produce.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-bodywill be made to cover the “small wide-body”market.
- Initial size will be a 250-280 passenger wide-body
- The aircraft will be a twin with engines from either GE or Rolls-Royce.
- Range with 280 passengers will be 6,500nm.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The market
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August 25, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having dissected the players behind the Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s time to look at what market such an aircraft aims to capture.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The project participants, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), say they intend to make a 250-280 seat aircraft with a 6,500nm range.
We will look at what market such an aircraft can address from its Entry into Service (EIS) 2025 and over the next 10 years. We will also discuss the constrains that emerges with UAC and COMAC entering the market as new players.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-body covers a market segment called “small wide-body” in the Global market forecast made by Airbus and Boeing.
- Based on data in these forecasts, the dominant market during the first 10 years after a 2025 Entry into Service (EIS) would be a captive Chinese market.