Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
With CSeries, Airbus commands 78% of 100-150 seat sector
Subscription Required
Introduction
Feb. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus acquired 50.01% of the Bombardier CSeries program last year.
Boeing and Embraer Commercial Aviation received Brazilian government approval last month and now await a nearly-year long regulatory approval process from around the globe.
Based on the announced orders at Jan. 1, Airbus has a 78% share of the 100-150 seat sector following the combinations.
Embraer sold more airplanes in this sector than Boeing: 95 E195-E2s to 70 737-7s.
The former CSeries has 526 orders to 55 for the A319neo.
Summary
- 14% of the A220 orders are classified as “Red” in LNA’s judgment—orders that either should be removed from the backlog or, in one case, is highly questionable due to customer statements.
- Another 11% of the A220 orders are classified as “Yellow,” primarily due to region risk.
- Synergies between A220 and A320 are greater than E2 and 737.
Boeing’s 777X analyzed, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
February 07, 2019, © Leeham News: In our analysis series about the 777X, we have now come to the smaller member of the 777X, the 777-8.
It’s what’s called a “cut and shut” shrink of the main variant, the 777-9. A cut and shut derivative of a larger base aircraft gives the smaller aircraft some special characteristics. We look at what this entails.
Figure 1. First flight test Boeing 777-9 with the GE9X engines mounted. Source: Boeing.
Summary:
- The 777-8 is a “cut and shut”variant of the 777-9. This means it keeps the wings, engines, landing gear and empennage of the larger 777-9.
- A shorter fuselage with a reduced cabin size means the 777-8 filled with passenger and cargo has more weight margins for fuel within the same Maximum Takeoff Weight as the 777-9.
- The end result is an Ultra Long-haul capable aircraft, available from 2022.
Countdown to NMA decision, Part 4: Time out
Subscription Required
Feb. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time for Airbus to launch the A321XLR.
Boeing last week announced a program launch for the New Midmarket Airplane won’t come until 2020 at the earliest.
Authority to Offer (ATO) may come as early as March or April. It had been widely expected a program launch would be announced at the Paris Air Show in June.
Airbus has been mulling the XLR launch since 2017. Inside information says a November 2017 launch was planned when all the distractions over the corruption scandals, coupled with key executive retirements, overwhelmed events.
Fifteen months later, Airbus dithers while Boeing vacillates.
Boeing’s 777X analyzed, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
January 30, 2019, © Leeham News: We started an analysis of the Boeing 777X last week as its rollout and first flight should happen this spring/summer. In the Figure below, the first flight test aircraft has its engine mounted, before roll out.
We will spend this article on the 777X engines, the GE9X from GE Aviation. Surprisingly, these are less powerful than the GE90 engines on the Boeing 777-300ER, the aircraft the 777X is derived from, despite the 777-9 being larger and heavier than the -300ER. This is with intent. The design of the 777X is to achieve more with less. We reveal how this is done below.
Figure 1.
Summary:
- The Boeing 777-9 is larger and heavier than the 777 variant it replaces, the Boeing 777-300ER.
- Despite this, the GE9X engines on the 777-9 are specified with 10,00lbf lower maximum thrust than the GE90-115 on the 777-300ER.
- How does it all work? We reveal how below.
Boeing’s 777X analyzed
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
January 24, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing will roll out the first 777X flight test aircraft mid-spring. The first aircraft, the static test airframe, was rolled out in September. Flight-testing should start in the early summer and first delivery is expected mid-2020.
With certification and delivery 18 months away it’s time to look at the project and understand where the 777X positions itself versus the competition.
Figure 1. First flight test Boeing 777-9 with the GE9X engines mounted. Source: Boeing.
Summary:
- The 777X achieves better fuel consumption per seat despite a larger and heavier airframe thanks to more advanced wings and engines.
- We compare its design to the 777-300ER and the Airbus A350-1000 competitor.
Countdown to decision on Boeing’s NMA, Part 3: Engine selection
By Dan Catchpole
Subscription Required
Introduction
January 21 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing number crunchers are feverishly working through engine bids from Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and CFM International, the partnership of Safran and General Electric (GE), the three competitors vying to power Boeing’s New Midmarket Airplane (NMA). Boeing is expected to ask for a best and final offer by the end of January, with engine selection planned in February.
That gives Boeing enough time to get authority to offer from the board of directors, likely in March or April, and to launch the NMA (likely as the 797) at the Paris Air 
Show in June.
Boeing faces big challenges in closing the business case, though. The process has slogged on far longer than company leaders had expected. Even so, Boeing executives’ relentless optimism about the NMA business case stands in sharp contrast to the skepticism of many industry insiders. At least two of the engine makers, for example, think market demand is about half of Boeing’s public forecast.
Each of the three engine makers vying to get on the NMA have some significant liability. The industry insiders and analysts interviewed for this article say is the decision really comes down to Pratt and CFM. Given the pressures on NMA business case, many see a scaled-up CFM Leap as the front runner. It offers the least risk, even if it also has the least upside.
Summary:
- CFM: The LEAP has performed well since going into service, but GE’s financial troubles could weigh down its bid.
- Pratt & Whitney: PW’s GTF is a great fit for NMA requirements, but the engine maker has a full plate with the GTF on five new airplane programs.
- Rolls-Royce: The NMA would be an opportunity to launch Rolls’ UltraFan, but does Boeing want to bet on a completely new engine?
Airbus new A220 is more of a match for the A320neo than Airbus says
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
January 17, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s all about the new Airbus A220 on the North America press tour Airbus is hosting this week. Airbus got this top modern aircraft as a windfall after Boeing tried to block its sale on the US Market in 2017.
While the tour presents the A220 in the best of lights, it can’t shine brighter than Airbus’ own A320neo. The graph from the tour which positions them in capacity and range shows a clear little brother-large brother relationship. The reality, when comparing apples to apples, is another.
Figure 1. Airbus payload-range chart with the new A220-100 and -300 placed as shorter ranged than the A320neo and A321neo.
Summary:
- The ideal positioning of the A220 and A320 is when the larger models are higher in capacity and flies further. They cost more and shall, therefore, be better.
- But the comparison is not made with the same yardsticks. Use the same rules and the result is another.
- The more modern A220-300 can then give the A320neo a match both in range and fuel consumption per passenger.
Airbus poised to out-deliver Boeing in 2019
Subscription Required
- LNC’s Corporate and Enterprise subscribers received this Jan. 3.
Jan. 8, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus is positioned to out-deliver Boeing this year, boosted by the addition of the Bombardier CSeries acquisition last year.
LNC projects that Airbus will deliver nearly 950 airliners this compared, compared with Boeing’s projected deliveries of about 890 jets.
These are LNC forecasts, not those of the manufacturers. Guidance for the year should come on their respective year-end earnings calls: February for Airbus and Jan. 30 for Boeing.
2019 Outlook: A critical year for Mitsubishi’s MRJ regional jet
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
January 8, 2019, © Leeham News.: Mitsubishi Aircraft’s MRJ should originally have entered service 2013. Now the plan is 2020, a record seven years of delay. But 2020 can be the last delay. On December 21, the program got “Type Inspection Authorization” from its Certification office, the JCAB (Japan’s Civil Aviation Bureau).
The brunt of Certification flying should be finished in 2019. Then follows the paperwork and the preparation for service entry with ANA. The year will be critical for how the MRJ project will enter service and ramp serial production.
Summary:
- The MRJ has seen more delayed years than its original schedule. But the last declared delay might be the final one.
- The project got a declaration of health just before Christmas. Its oversight authority, JDAC, supported by the FAA, said it was ready to start Certification flights with the aircraft.
- It’s now for Mitsubishi to succeed with these flight so ANA can get the first aircraft by 2020.
- Work on capacity improvements for the smaller variant, the MRJ70, is also ongoing to make it more suitable for the US Scope Clause market.
2019 Outlook: ATR begins year in commanding position
Subscription Required
Introduction
Jan. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: ATR, the turboprop airliner OEM, enters 2019 in a commanding position.
Year-end 2018 order numbers for ATR and rival Bombardier aren’t in yet.
Through October, ATR held 74% of the backlog. Bombardier, buoyed by a large order for 25 Q400s from India’s SpiceJet (the 2027 deliveries in the Chart below), had 26% of the backlog.
Bombardier contracted to sell its Q400 program to Longview Capital Partners, parent of Viking Air. The Canadian company previously purchased all legacy de Havilland programs, including the Beaver, Twin Otter and aerial firefighting aircraft.
Viking restarted production of the Twin Otter and is gearing up to restart the Beaver.
Its plans for the Q400, Q300 and previous Dash 8 programs hasn’t been announced.
Summary
- Bombardier neglected the Q400.
- Small market over 20 years.
- ATR would like new program.