Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Exclusive: Boeing, internally, sees production halt at least 60 days
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 7, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing internally sees production suspension of the 737 MAX of at least 60 days, LNA has learned.
The last inventory MAX fuselages entered final assembly this week and will roll out of the factory shortly.
Then, production is suspended. Boeing publicly has not said how long the suspension will last and it’s unclear how much information has been passed down the supply chain. Without knowing when the FAA will recertify the MAX, Boeing can’t truly gauge when production will resume.
Air India’s Rupee bottomless pit
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Jan. 6, 2020, © Leeham News: Air India lost more than $1bn in the fiscal year 2018-19. After years of heavy financial losses, the Indian government is mulling another privatization attempt.
The current Air India is the result of the 2007 merger with another publicly owned airline, Indian Airlines. The Indian flag carrier owns several subsidiaries, including two operationally separate airlines, and a hotel chain.
One would a priori think that the sustained losses are mainly the results of a bloated cost structure. LNA went through Air India’s financial statements since the fiscal year 2007-08 to see whether that is the case.
The root causes of Air India’s chronic losses will make the latest privatization attempt challenging to execute for the current government.
Summary
- A complicated history and structure;
- Strategic decision and competition drag company down;
- Not only a cost problem;
- Lessons from a failed privatization attempt.
Pontifications: Airbus almost certain to be hurt by MAX crisis
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 6, 2020, © Leeham News: This may be the year that Airbus is hit with the negative consequences of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis.
Most observers see Airbus benefitting with greater A320 family sales while the MAX remains grounded.
In LNA’s 2020 Outlook last week, we pointed out that the long-running trade war between the US and European Union could be coming to a head this year. Airbus and the EU are waiting for the World Trade Organization’s authorization to impose tariffs on US products. This decision is expected in May or June. Boeing is expected to be the first target. The Trump Administration last year imposed a 10% tariff on Airbus aircraft.
The MAX crisis could ratchet up tariffs on Airbus aircraft.
Aviation safety continues to improve in the US and Europe
By Judson Rollins
Introduction
Jan. 3, 2020, © Leeham News: Despite all the safety-related headlines surrounding the Boeing 737 MAX, 2019 was a mercifully quiet year with just six fatal airline accidents around the world.
Clifford Law Offices in Chicago recently released an analysis of aviation incidents and accidents reported to the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) from 1982 to 2018. It highlighted several interesting patterns that are probably well known to pilots but perhaps not the rest of the aviation community. LNA also looked at accident data from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) for 1970-2017 for comparison.
In 2018, the NTSB investigated 1,581 aviation accidents and incidents that left 847 people dead and another 768 people injured. The vast majority of these, not surprisingly, involved non-commercial general aviation aircraft. Seventy-nine percent of all US aircraft accidents and 72% of fatal accidents involved single-engine planes. In this article, LNA will focus primarily on commercial aircraft operations like the ones defined under US Federal Aviation Administration Part 121 rules.
Summary
- Air travel remains one of the safest modes of transportation;
- Accidents and fatalities have fallen dramatically over the past 40 years;
- The most accidents occur during takeoff and landing, but those during maneuvering and cruising are the most deadly.
Bjorn’s Corner: Why e in ePlane shall stand for environment, Part 3. Open rotor revisited.
January 3, 2020, ©. Leeham News: We continue our series why e in ePlane shall stand for environment and not electric.
Our target is to lower air transport’s environmental footprint and we can achieve this more efficiently by using established technologies. As an example, I will describe a very promising concept that has fallen out of focus due to the hype around everything hybrid and electric.
Figure 1. The Clean Sky IRON project aircraft with an Unducted Single Fan (USF) propulsion. Source: Clean Sky.
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2020 Outlook for Airbus, Boeing, et al
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Introduction
By the Leeham News team.
Jan. 2, 2020, © Leeham News: This will be a pivotal year for Boeing.
It will be a year of challenges for Airbus.
Embraer Commercial Aviation should disappear.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries faces final decisions for the SpaceJet.
Overhanging international trade is the US presidential election.
These are just some of the headlines to look for in 2020.
Leeham News and Analysis provides its annual outlook as the new year, and the new decade, begins.
Boeing MAX crisis dominated 2019 Top stories
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing and the 737 MAX dominated the Top 10 Stories on Leeham News in 2019.
This should surprise no one.
The year-end late-breaking news that Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg had been fired by the Board of Directors should be in the Top 10 Stories of 2019.
But coming as it did on Dec. 23, the start of Christmas week, it failed to make it into LNA’s Top 10 list.
Readership, obviously, falls off dramatically over the Christmas holidays. The fall-off continues between Christmas and New Year’s evidenced by LNA’s own decision to take a holiday (except for breaking news).
The Ethiopian Airlines crash on March 10 grabbed three of the Top 10 stories and shared, with Lion Air 610 (the Oct. 29, 2018, crash) a fourth story.
Boeing photo.
Boeing’s pickle with the 737 NG pickle fork cracking was of the Top 10 stories.
An historical review that Boeing didn’t want to re-engine the 737, preferring instead a new airplane in 2011 when what became the MAX was launched, was in the Top 10.
An April 2018 story about a potential Blended Wing Body airplane from Boeing hit the Top 10 after an enthusiast site linked it to its forum.
Other MAX MCAS stories were in the Top 10. Finally, anticipated announcements by Mitsubishi for the Paris Air Show was the only non-Boeing story to be in the Top 10 reads for the year.
Airbus didn’t hit the Top 10 but did have a #11 story concerning a pitch-up issue on the A321.
The Boeing stories propelled record readership on LNA in 2019.
Here is the rundown.
Holiday publishing schedule
Dec. 23, 2019: Except for 2019’s Top 10 Stories, LNA is going to try and take off publishing from Christmas Eve through New Year’s Day.
The Enchanted light maze at T-Mobile Park (Seattle Mariners) Field. Seattle Times photo.
However, if there is breaking news, we’ll report it.
Analysis: Boeing’s priority after recertifying, delivering MAX: remake the Board
- Editor’s Note: Just last night I wrote this piece for publication on Jan. 6 as Pontifications. The news today of Dennis Muilenburg’s ouster causes acceleration.
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 6, 2020, Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing’s first priority this year is to get the 737 MAX recertified, returned to service, production restarted and begin 
the long path on the road to normalcy.
The second priority is to remake the leadership and governance.
The third, which may slip to 2021, is to launch a new airplane program to replace the MAX 9 and MAX 10.
Analysis: Calhoun’s insider status raises question: is he the one to pull Boeing out of its dive?
Analysis
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing Board of Directors has fired Dennis Muilenburg.
Dennis Muilenburg. Source: Boeing photo.
Board chairman David Calhoun was named president and CEO, effective next month. The delay is required while Calhoun resigns from other business commitments.
Boeing CFO Greg Smith was named interim CEO. Board member Lawrence Kellner was named non-executive chairman.
Calhoun has been on the board 10 years. The roots of Boeing’s current crisis includes decisions made by the Board. Is Calhoun, an insider, the right person to pull Boeing out of its dive?