Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Southwest CEO sees 60% of fleet becoming the 737-7
March 1, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Southwest Airlines needs about 100 more Boeing 737-8s before turning its
Gary Kelly, CEO of Southwest Airlines. Photo via Google images.
attention to the 737-7, CEO Gary Kelly told LNC in a press scrum at the 2018 Aviation Summit today, sponsored by the US Chamber of Commerce.
The current fleet of 737-700s won’t see retirements until about 2022, at which time the need for the 7 MAX arises.
Professionals see two types for Middle of the Market sector
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Introduction
March 1, 2018, © Leeham Co. Three industry professionals raised the question whether the Middle of the Market sector requires one aircraft type or two.
One raised the prospect Boeing might have to undertake concurrent aircraft development, as it did with the 757 and 767.
Richard Aboulafia, a consultant with The Teal Group, Ron Epstein, aerospace analyst for Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Kevin Michaels, president of AeroDynamic Advisory, made their remarks at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance last month in Lynnwood (WA).
Summary
- Low-cost Embraer engineers may play a role in Boeing’s development of the NMA.
- One consultant sees two distinct NMA aircraft.
- Boeing’s vertical integration of the supply chain may make sense only with two concurrent of consecutive airplane programs.
IAG’s LEVEL shopping for future fleet
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 28, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: IAG (parent of British Airways, IBERIA, Air Lingus, Vueling and LEVEL) presented the 2017 results Friday. The group’s airlines all had a good 2017 behind them.
LEVEL, the long-haul LCC started from Barcelona in June 2017 with two Airbus A330-200s, performed better than expected. With the market response to LEVEL, IAG’s CEO Willi Walsh sees the LEVEL business plan as confirmed.
The airline will now expand from today’s three A330-200s to at least 15 aircraft by 2022. The A330 is not a given, according to Walsh; the Boeing 787 could also be a good fit.
Pontifications: OEMs hike list prices
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 26, 2018, © Leeham Co.: I’m tardy in getting around to this topic, which I do annually, because of an unusually heavy travel schedule this year.
The airframe manufacturers in January adjusted their list prices for airplanes. The prices generally went up 2%-4%, but turboprop maker ATR didn’t adjust this year.
The SADC 2018 conference includes speakers from Airbus, Bombardier, Oliver Wyman, NASA, four states in the Southeast and more. Click here for information and to register.
Aerion’s supersonic engine presented
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 26, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Aerion Supersonic’s CEO and Executive Chairman, Brian Barents, presented the first pictures of the Aerion AS2 biz jet’s engine at the recent PNAA conference in Seattle.
It’s the first engine adapted for supersonic passenger transport since the Concorde’s Olympus engine was developed in the 1960s.
Figure 1. Aerion’s supersonic AS2 business jet. Source: Aerion.
Based on the released configuration sketch, we put the engine through our GasTurb modelling software. Here’s what we found.
Summary:
- The Aerion AS2 engine combines the CFM56 core with a new high Specific Thrust low-pressure spool.
- Through the AS2’s M1.4 cruise speed limit, complex variable engine inlets and outlets can be avoided.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft drag reduction, Part 18
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 23, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner we discussed transonic flow and drag. Now it’s time to finish the drag type discussion by adding some less dominant but still important drag types.
Knowing their origin will help us understand why aircraft are made like they are.
Figure 1. Low-pressure (green) shows areas with high flow speeds for the 787 during cruise. Source: Boeing and Leeham Co.
Hawaiian Airlines’ switch from A330-800 to 787-9
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 22, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Hawaiian Airlines (Hawaiian) were one of the customers for the Airbus A350-800, the smaller, longer-range variant of the A350. When Airbus decided to not produce the A350-800, Hawaiian switched to the A330-800 instead, a smaller and shorter range aircraft.
The further change to the Boeing 787-9 is switching back to an aircraft the class of the original choice, the A350-800.
We examine the change from the A330-800 to the 787-9. What does it buy Hawaiian and why the change?
Summary:
- Hawaiian opted for a smaller sub fleet of very long-range A350-800s when it reviewed its long-range fleet needs in 2007. Future routes could include Europe given the capabilities of these planes.
- When Airbus canceled the A350-800 variant, the order was changed to the smaller and shorter range A330-800.
- Hawaiian has now decided to move back to the type of aircraft it originally decided on. A type which could reliably fly to Europe from Honolulu, the 787-9.
Boeing displaces Airbus at Hawaiian, wins 787-9 deal; airline cancels A330-800 order
Feb. 20, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has displaced Airbus at Hawaiian Airlines, winning an order for 787-9s. Hawaiian canceled an order for six A330-800s, the only order on the books for this sub-type.
An announcement could come as early as this week.
The campaign has been underway for months and the outcome was expected. Airbus offered to cut the price on the -800 and also offered the A350-900. The latter always was considered too big by carrier executives.
Boeing’s effort to displace Airbus A330neo at Hawaiian is part of an all-out, hand-to-hand combat campaign by Boeing to kill the A330neo program in advance of the potential launch of the Boeing 797.
LNC detailed the battle here.
Qatar may up-gauge A350-900 to -1000, buy more
Feb. 20, 2018 © Leeham Co., Toulouse: Qatar Airways may up-gauge some of its Airbus A350-900 orders to the larger -1000 and it may buy more A350s for its leasing company, CEO Akbar Al Baker said at the delivery of the airline’s first -1000.
Qatar is the launch customer of the A350 program, including the -900 and -1000.
Departing Airbus preisdent Fabrice Bregier, Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al-Baker and Rolls-Royce CEO Chris Chorlerton take questions at a press conference during the delivery of the first A350-1000 to the airline.
The first -1000 was legally delivered to Qatar at the end of last year, but handover for scheduled service was delayed until today because of issues with its new QSuite premier business class supplied by Rockwell Collins, he said.
In a wide-ranging press conference, Al Baker also said:
Airbus readies A350-1000 for delivery, dismisses Boeing 777-9
Feb. 20, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Toulouse: Airbus will deliver its first A350-1000 to launch customer Qatar Airways within hours, making the end to a nearly two-month wait for the ceremonial handover.
The aircraft was legally delivered to Qatar in the closing days of 2017, but issues with the QSuite interior held up the hand-over until today. The airplane will enter revenue service between Doha and London Heathrow Airport.
Airbus’ Marisa Lucas, Head of A350 XWB Marketing, extols the virtues of the A350-1000 in advance of the handover of the firzt one to Qatar Airways.
Earlier today, Marisa Lucas, Head of A350 XWB Marketing, extolled the virtue of the A350-1000 and, in a response to a question, dismissed the coming Boeing 777-9 as a threat to the -1000. She also waved off the prospect, for now, of stretching the -1000 into a “2000” that would directly challenge the -9.