Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
No fear of C919 for a generation
Nov. 4, 2015, © Leeham Co. The first COMAC C919 was rolled out of the factory over the weekend, China’s mainline entry into the fiercely competitive arena now “owned” by the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.
COMAC C919. Click on image to enlarge. Photo via Google images.
Although the two giants each has said China is the next competitor they will have to face, the Big Two have nothing to worry about for a generation to come.
Here’s why.
“MAD” at Airbus, Boeing?
Nov. 3, 2015, © Leeham Co. Aerospace analysts are weighing in on 3Q2015 Friday’s earnings call on the Airbus announcement that it will lift A320 production to 60/mo by mid-2019 and may go to 63/mo the following year.
Figure 1. Click on image to enlarge.
Way back in February we predicted Airbus and Boeing will take their single-aisle production rates to 63/mo. (Figure 1.)
Ken Herbert, the aerospace analyst for Canaccord, noted that even with the same higher rates, Boeing will still out-produce Airbus because Boeing works on a 12-month year and Airbus shuts down the assembly line for a summer vacation. His forecast production chart takes this into account (Figure 2.)
Pointifications: Wide-body orders; Bombardier’s $1bn
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 2, 2015, © Leeham Co. Boeing gets an order for up to 26 787-10s.
Airbus firms up options to an order for 30 A330s, added to 45 previously announced by the same customer.
Boeing announces an order for nine 787-9s.
For all the talk of a wide-body surplus, this is shaping up to be a good year for wide-body orders.
Through September, Airbus recorded 90 firm wide-body orders, all but three for the A330 family. Boeing recorded 152 during the same period (these are net figures). Not included are any of the orders listed above, which have yet to be recorded as firm contracts.
Based on the YTD-September figures and those above, Airbus has a 42% share of orders this year; Boeing has 58%.
Airbus Group 3Q results; Increase of A320 production to 60 a month
By Bjorn Fehrm
Oct. 30, 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus Group announced its increase of the production rate for the best-selling A320 range to 60 a month in conjunction with its 3Q
2015 results. The rate increase shall be seen against a backdrop of ever-increasing backlog for the A320neo, now at over 4,300 aircraft. The sales bonanza of the A320 is continuing with another 100 aircraft committed at Chancellor Merkel’s visit to China in October.
Airbus Group booked solid results for the third quarter, with order intake for Airbus for the year already secured in 3Q at 815 aircraft (791 3Q 2014). Noteworthy are the A330 bookings of 87 aircraft which have also continued in October with another 30 aircraft committed by China.
Revenue was up 6% to €43bn (€40bn 3Q 2014) and core operational EBIT was up 6.5% to €2.8bn compared to €2.59bn 3Q 2014. Free Cash Flow (FCF) was better than 3Q 2014, with €-1.8bn instead of €-2.1bn4. Airbus group expect FCF to be breakeven for the year.
Given the strong results Airbus Group has decided to buy back €1bn of shares before June 2016.
Details from the Airbus programs are:
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft programs
By Bjorn Fehrm
30 October 2015, ©. Leeham Co: There has been dramatic news this week around Bombardier’s (BBD) CSeries program. I wrote a subscribers article about what to expect in terms of the cash flow problem that the BBD management has been wrestling with. The announcements yesterday and the following earnings call confirmed the financial modelling I did with our aircraft modelling tool.
Having watched experienced Wall Street analysts being hard pressed to understand what has happened with the CSeries, I thought I could use this week’s corner to explain the overall economical flow of an aircraft program like the CSeries (there will be details in a follow up subscriber article). I will also put it in context with how it affects a company like BBD and what one must think about when it comes to timing of such projects.
To give the timing aspect more colour, I will also compare with Embraer and their E-Jet E2 project and Boeing’s 787 program. The three programs are very different and they demonstrate in an illustrative way the challenges of making a new civil airliner and that one must adapt the project to the company’s position and its strength and weaknesses.
Bombardier 3Q2015 earnings call
Oct. 29, 2015: “I feel confident in our liquidity going forward,” following the investment by the Quebec government of $1bn in the CSeries program, says Alain
Alain Bellemare
Bellemare, president and CEO.
With that, Bombardier launched its third quarter earnings call.
Cancellation of the Learjet 85 program was due to a lack of sales due to a prolonged downturn in the business jet market, Bellemare said. The $3.2bn charge against the CSeries program was driven by delays. Bellemare said that production aircraft are moving down the production lines. “We’re getting traction with potential customers” with the new sales team. The partnership with the Quebec government “is excellent news.”
Key initiatives have been identified for cash savings over the next five years. More information will be forthcoming on November 24 at a New York investment conference.
Bombardier: $3.2bn charge, $1bn from Quebec
Oct. 29, 2015: Bombardier today announced a US$3.2bn charge against the CSeries program and a $1bn investment from the province of Quebec, about half of what
CS100: Certification 97% complete. Photo via Google images.
had been rumored, with its 3Q2015 earnings. The press release is here.
BBD also canceled its Learjet 85 program. Revenues declined $800m to $4.1bn. Exclusive of charges against the CSeries and Learjet programs, BBD reported net income of $71m vs $171m. Total reported net loss was $4.9bn, including the charges against the two programs.
“Today, we are proud to announce that the government of Québec will invest $1 billion in the C Series aircraft program. This partnership comes at a pivotal time, with the C Series on the verge of certification. The market is there, our leadership is in place, we have the best product and with the support of the government, we are ready to make this aircraft a commercial success,” said Alain Bellemare, president and CEO.
Northrop wins, Boeing/Lockheed lose bomber contract
Oct. 27, 2015: Northrop Grumman, builder of the B-2 bomber in the USAF inventory, was awarded the contract to build the next generation long-range bomber, which is yet to be named. For the moment, we’ll call it the “B-3.” For now it’s official name is the Long Range Strike Bomber (LRSB).
The Seattle Times has this story.
This is a big blow to Boeing, whose declining defense business was already in trouble from defense cutbacks and previous contract losses. The contract is worth $80bn.
Boeing’s strategy in acquiring McDonnell Douglas Corp back in 1997 was to even the revenue stream between commercial and military, in which Boeing then had a small portion and MDC was predominately military. Boeing was a sub-contractor to Northrop on the B-2, gaining a lot of its composite experience there which ultimately benefited development of the 787.
Unless Boeing finds grounds to challenge the contract award, prevails and wins a second competition, its Defense unit will continue to shrink.
Goldman Sachs, as with many other investment banks, called this a big win for Northrop.