Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: Southwest meltdown (its second in 3 months) is a day of reckoning; what will it do to fix it?
Jan. 3, 2023, © Leeham News: I’ve been employed by, consulting, or writing about the airline industry for 43 years.
By Scott Hamilton
I’ve seen plenty of times when flights were disrupted. There was 9/11, in which the US skies were closed for four days. It was a first. The COVID pandemic essentially shut down global traffic for months, another first. I’ve seen 40% of the US capacity operating in bankruptcy following the 1991 Persian Gulf War. There was SARS. The hijacking epidemic in the 1970s. The Palestine Liberation Organization hijacked four airliners at once and blew them up in the desert, fortunately having let passengers and crew deplane first.
See airport chaos:
But never have I seen the chaotic meltdown of an airline like that seen during the Christmas period of Southwest Airlines. On Boxing Day, the Luv airline canceled two-thirds of its flights. Its hubs in places like Baltimore and Chicago Midway were a sea of humanity and baggage. Southwest’s meltdown was simply unbelievable.
Yet, somehow, I wasn’t terribly surprised.
I’ve been watching Southwest for nearly five decades. I gave up flying it probably close to 20 years ago, even though I love Midway Airport (I still have family in the Chicago suburbs). Southwest has been on a long, long, long road to implosion for years.
Here’s why.
Outlook 2023: ramping up production at Airbus
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By Vincent Valery and Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Jan. 2, 2023, © Leeham News: LNA wrote a year ago that ramping up single-aisle production would be Airbus’ major 2022 challenge. Increasing narrowbody aircraft production on the A220 and A320 lines proved more difficult than envisioned for the European OEM.
The war in Ukraine, which led to sanctions and higher energy bills, compounded the challenges for Airbus and its supply chain. Among the suppliers behind delivery schedules, engine manufacturers received the most attention earlier in the year. The situation has improved since then.
Airbus did not launch any new aircraft variants in 2022. While the A321XLR flight campaign started in June 2022, the program has accumulated a six-month delay. Entry into service is now planned for 2Q2024 instead of 4Q2023. The delays are caused mainly by the certification of the new rear center fuel tank into the fuselage.
Despite a production line full for several years, Airbus continued accumulating healthy numbers of A320neo orders, including from Chinese carriers. The cancellation of AirAsia X’s A330neo order improved the family’s order book quality. Net orders for the A350 family, including the freighter variant, have been muted but should pick up as long-haul traffic recovers. Airbus’ low point has been the ongoing court battle with Qatar Airways on the A350 paint issue, leading to the cancellation of the carrier’s order book.
Last but not least, Airbus announced many ecoAviation and sustainability initiatives throughout the year, culminating at its Annual Summit Nov. 30-Dec. 1.
Will 2023 be more of the same for the European OEM?
Summary
- Behind-schedule ramp-up on both single-aisle lines;
- New orders will determine the pace of the twin-aisle ramp-up;
- Avoiding further A321XLR certification delays;
- Robust cash flows allow sizable R&D spend on ecoAviation;
- No new product development and more A330neo orders?
NTSB issues critique of Ethiopia’s final report of Boeing 737 MAX 2019 crash
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 27, 2022, © Leeham News: The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) today issued a critique of the newly released final investigation report of the Ethiopian government of the March 10, 2019, crash of a Boeing 737 MAX.
Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 came five months after Lion Air flight JT610, a MAX, crashed. Both accidents began when the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) activated following a failure of the single Angle of Attack (AOA) sensor to which it was tied malfunctioned (JT610) or failed (ET302).
Boeing issued a notice to MAX operators after the Lion Air crash outlining proper procedures pilots should follow in case MCAS erroneously activated again. The Ethiopian government investigation placed the blame for the crash on Boeing. The NTSB’s critique concluded the pilots failed to follow Boeing recommendations and should be partly held responsible for the probable cause of the crash. Had they followed procedure, the NTSB concludes the pilots could have successfully flown through the emergency.
HOTR: Some changes coming to LNA in January
Dec. 27, 2022, © Leeham News: There will be some changes coming to Leeham News on Jan. 1, 2023.
The first is that for the first time since 2017, we adjust our subscription rates. We’ve been including notices in our articles throughout December. We provided notice on our Subscription page on Dec. 1. Here are the new rates:
Subscription Rate Adjustment
Effective Jan. 1, 2023, the following subscription rates will be in effect (US dollars):
-
- Monthly Rate: $59.95. This is for individuals and not corporate employees.
- Annual Individual Rate: $652. This is for individuals and not corporate employees.
- Annual Single User Corporate Rate: $1,632. This is for an individual corporate user.
Enterprise corporate subscriptions begin with Enterprise 3 (three users) and are available for up to 500 users. Please contact us at info@leeham.net for more information.
This is the first rate adjustment since 2017.
Accordingly, we’ll make some adjustments to our content.
Pontifications: LNA’s Top 10 stories of 2022
Dec. 26, 2022, © Leeham News: This year has been a year of recovery.
By Scott Hamilton
Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery from shortages in the supply chain, layoffs during the pandemic and from financial losses. Boeing continues to struggle in its recovery from the 2019 grounding of the 737 MAX and 2020 suspension of deliveries of the 787.
This year saw a resumption of the big international European air shows since the pandemic—Farnborough. There was great anticipation that Boeing was working on new airplane programs in earnest for the first time in three years.
And disappointments.
Here’s a review of the Top 10 stories LNA published, by readership.
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
By Scott Hamilton
Growing up in the Chicago suburbs, my family would occasionally trek down to the Chicago Museum of Science and Industry at Christmas time. The main attraction then was not all the very cool stuff in the Museum, including the German submarine U-505, a full-size replica of a coal mine, and locomotives.
At this time of year, it was to see the Christmas Around The World display–a tradition that is now 80 years old. Even as a child, it was amazing to see how different cultures celebrated Christmas. Here’s a taste.
LNA has some prepared posts between Christmas and New Year. Otherwise, we are taking the holidays off and return Jan. 2, 2023–unless there is compelling breaking news.
So with disdain for political correctness, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 51. eVTOL wrap.
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 23, 2022, ©. Leeham News: After 25 articles about the eVTOL, it’s time for a wrap. We have looked at most aspects of this new form of air transportation, including how sustainable it is.
Today we summarize what we found before we go on to the next subject in Sustainable Air Transport.
Figure 1. The series started with a picture of the eVTOL that leads the trend, Joby Aviation’s S4. Source: Joby Aviation.
Universal Hydrogen’s ATR72 Project
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 22, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we wrote about Universal Hydrogen’s (UH2) plans to fly a hydrogen-fueled demonstrator aircraft in early 2023, followed by a certified conversion kit for an ATR72 airliner mid-decade.
The plans for the ATR72 hydrogen conversion are at an advanced state. As the first publication, we can describe the overall design and the technical details. The ATR72 implementation brings improvements in several areas compared with what’s been revealed before.
Figure 1. Hydrogen tank modules are loaded onto an ATR 72 using standard freight handling equipment. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- The target ATR72 conversion improves hydrogen capacity and handling compared to earlier concepts.
- The influence on the ATR seating capacity is reduced due to more efficient packaging on the aircraft.
HOTR: Supply chain hurts A220 assembly flow, big push to meet year-end delivery target
By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 20, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus’ woes with the A320 family production line are widely reported. So are Boeing’s woes with the 737 line.
Less well reported are the woes Airbus has with the A220 production lines in Montreal and Mobile (AL).
LNA was informed two weeks ago that the A220 line is its own serious production challenges traced to the supply chain. Rumors circulated that Airbus may shut down the lines to allow the suppliers to catch up.
Airbus’s Montreal office acknowledged challenges but denied the final assembly lines were going to be or were considered for shut down temporarily.
“In order to protect our operations in a complex environment, some ad hoc short-term planning adjustments have been made to align with our supply chain in order to protect our deliveries to our committed customers. We continue to focus on the aircraft that are almost ready for delivery in 2022 and there is no shutdown either of FALs nor pre-FALs planned,” a spokesperson emailed LNA.
Suppliers expect Boeing to increase 787 rates next year
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By Bryan Corliss
Dec. 19, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing suppliers are planning to increase their output to support the OEM’s plan to deliver five new-built 787s a month at some point in 2023.
Boeing wants to increase the production rate of the 787 to 5/mo by the end of 2023 and to 10/mo by 2025. The supply chain must hurry to prepare. Credit: Leeham News.
It will be challenging for the top-tier suppliers to scale up operations dramatically. They’ll have to train and maintain larger teams of workers, while also ensuring that their own lower-tier suppliers have the capacity to deliver parts and components on time.
One executive warned investors this fall that the challenges in the year ahead will be greater than the ones the industry faced delivering record numbers of planes before the pandemic.
Summary:
- Howmet: ‘Back of the year, at around 5 per month’
- Suppliers want more lead time given challenges
- Whole supply chain is under stress
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