Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 26. June 13, 2025
- Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044 June 12, 2025
Engine Development, Part 1: Launch to Entry into Service
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan
Aug 18, 2022, © Leeham News: LNA analyzed the evolution of commercial aircraft development timelines last month. The time between a program launch and entry into service significantly increased over time, including for derivatives.
The increase in development time is primarily the result of more complex and safer airplanes. Introducing new materials, notably a more extensive use of composites, also explain longer development timelines.
LNA now starts a new series on the topic of commercial aircraft jet engines. The goal is to go through significant innovations from the beginning of the jet age.
This first article analyses whether engine development time between launch and entry into service increased significantly over time.
Summary
- Military development led to the first commercial jet engines;
- The divergence between military and commercial programs;
- Pushing the envelope of the same fundamental engine architecture;
- Harder to identify development timeline evolution.
Pontifications: Airbus nears 800 sales for A220, but major challenges continue
Aug. 15, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus now has nearly 800 orders for the A220, but the program is years from profitability and production faces supplier challenges like those facing the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX.
Airbus A220-300. Credit: Leeham News.
Passenger experience easily exceeds the older design A320 and 737. The A220’s 2×3 seating, 18.5 inch window/aisle seats, 19-inch wide middle seat and wide aisle draw kudos. The windows are larger than the older airplanes. Economics are better than promised by Bombardier, which designed the airplane as the C Series.
Exiting Commercial Aviation
By Scott Hamilton
Development costs, neglect of the Bombardier Q400 and CRJ programs and concurrent development of two new corporate jets nearly bankrupted Bombardier. To save itself, Bombardier exited commercial aviation and killed one of the two corporate jet developments. The Q400 program was sold to Longview Aviation, which rebranded the turboprop its original name, the Dash 8-400, and adopted the legacy company name, De Havilland Canada.
The CRJ program was sold to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. MHI had little interest in the CRJ regional jet. Interest was in acquiring the CRJ global product support and MRO system as a groundwork for the M100 SpaceJet it was developing. (MHI later changed CEOs in its policy of rotating the leadership. The new leaders killed the SpaceJet program, the reason for buying the CRJ in the first place.) MHI last year seriously considered restarting production of the CRJ. This idea was abandoned only last month.
The C Series was sold to Airbus in 2017, the first of Bombardier’s commercial programs to go. The impetus was a complaint filed by Boeing with the US Department of Commerce in 2017. While Commerce was assessing the complaint, Bombardier agreed to sell 50.1% of the program to Airbus. BBD was committed to fund construction of an assembly plant at Airbus’ Mobile (AL) complex and cover up to $700m in losses. (Commerce eventually upheld Boeing’s complaint and levied a 292% tariff. But the required review by the Court of International Trade found Boeing suffered no harm in a deal with Delta Air Lines that triggered the complaint. The CIT’s finding killed the tariff.)
Bombardier was unable to fulfill its commitments to Airbus, which eventually bought out Bombardier’s remaining share of the program. (A Quebec, Canada, pension fund still retains about 25% ownership of the program.)
Boeing prepares to swap engines from MAX inventory to new production
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 15, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun says the company won’t build 737 gliders. That’s what airplanes are called as they exit final assembly without engines. The mitigation ironically comes from a circumstance that bedeviled Boeing since March 2019.
Planning is underway to take engines from the large inventory of stored 737 MAX aircraft to install on new production airplanes, LNA confirmed.
Engineless Boeing 737 MAXes in 2018. Boeing is making counterweights to hang on the new-production airplanes if CFM can’t deliver engines on time. Credit: Woody’s Images.
Boeing is producing 20-30 ship sets of counterweights, LNA is told. The counterweights are yellow blocks hung from the pylons to which engines are attached. The weights are needed to prevent the airplanes from sitting on their tails without the heavy engines installed. The counterweights will be installed on the stored airplanes when the CFM LEAP-1B engines are removed to install on new production aircraft as they roll off the final assembly line in Renton (WA).
In 2018, some MAXes rolled off the final assembly line without engines when CFM deliveries couldn’t match the production rate then.
Airbus has upward of 30 A320 gliders because CFM and Pratt & Whitney can’t deliver engines on time due to supply chain issues. Boeing, struggling to return to the 2019 737 production rate of 52/mo following the 21-month grounding of the MAX and a slow recovery from the COVID pandemic, hasn’t produced gliders yet. CFM is the exclusive engine supplier for the MAX.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 32. Mixed architectures, Part 2.
August 12, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at two eVTOLs that don’t fit the terminology we use; Multicopters, Vectored thrust, or Lift and Cruise, the Vertical VX4, and the Archer Maker. We look at Airbus’ CityAirbus NG this week, a Lift and Cruise design like no other (Figure 1).
Figure 1. The Airbus CityAirbus NG. Source: Airbus.
The industries’ CASM trap
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 11, 2022, © Leeham News: The airliner world measures efficiency in CASM, Cost per Available Seat Mile, and RASM, Revenue per Available Seat Mile. An airliner with more seats then has lower CASM or RASM.
Looking at seat counts, we can see that the hottest selling single-aisle, the Airbus A321neo, is closing the gap to widebodies like Boeing’s 787-8 and Airbus’ A330-800.
So it’s CASM, and RASM should be phenomenal. Or is it? Are we comparing correctly, or are these Apples and Oranges comparisons? We use the cabin generator of our airliner performance model to understand it better.
Summary
- The measurement of economics per seat makes sense for internal airline work.
- When comparing different airliner types in the same size class or between types (single-aisle, widebody), it’s the wrong method.
HOTR: Boeing resumes 787 deliveries after long hiatus
By the Leeham News Team
Aug. 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Deliveries of the Boeing 787 are slated to resume today after a pause of nearly two years. American Airlines is set to receive a 787-8. The Federal Aviation Administration announced Monday that it approved Boeing’s plans to fix a production flaw that resulted in a paper-thin gap where certain sections of the fuselage are mated.
Rework of up to 120 787s in inventory has been underway for some time, both in Charleston (SC), where the airplane is assembled and in Everett (WA), where the former Line 1 Final Assembly Line was located. Plane spotters occasionally noted 787s being flown into Everett from stored locations.
Some estimates indicate that the 120 airplanes were sold for an average of $129m each. (The split between the 787-8, 787-9 and 787-10 is not detailed.) This places the inventory value at an estimated $15.5bn. But don’t assume this is the amount of cash that will be coming to Boeing as inventory is cleared into 2024. About 40% of the sales price is typically paid via deposits and progress payments by the time of delivery. This means that Boeing may look for an estimated $9bn in cash.
However, customer compensation for the delivery delays could reduce this some. Boeing prefers to compensate customers via discounts on future airplanes or via services and parts. How much—or how little—cash compensation is provided is known only to Boeing.
During the fourth quarter last year, Boeing took a forward loss on the 787 program of $3.46bn.
Can China pass on Boeing airplanes? A deeper look
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 8, 2022, © Leeham News: The FAA lifted the Boeing 737 MAX grounding more than 18 months ago. However, Chinese airlines still have not returned their 737 MAX fleets to passenger service.
Air China 777-300ER
Chinese airlines have also not taken delivery of any 737 MAX since March 2019. Separately, a Boeing 777-300ER for China Southern Airlines has now been pending delivery for more than two years. While Airbus announced a large A320neo order from Chinese airlines on July 1, no similar order materialized for the 737 MAX at the Farnborough Air Show.
The above raises the question of whether China intends to place new commercial aircraft orders with Boeing. Last year, LNA concluded that China could not rely exclusively on Airbus and COMAC to meet its aircraft requirements.
This article revisits whether Chinese airlines can do without Boeing for single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft. Airbus announced its intention to increase A320 family production to 75 per month by 2025. The analysis incorporates replacement needs but also looks at different growth assumptions to see whether output by non-Boeing OEMs can accommodate the fleet requirements of the Chinese market.
Summary
- Current China passenger fleet profile;
- Fleet replacement and growth rate assumptions;
- Estimating maximum possible production rates for China without Boeing;
- China needs Boeing airplanes in most scenarios.
Pontifications: A bad feeling for the JetBlue-Spirit merger
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 8, 2022, © Leeham News: I don’t normally report on airline mergers except as these may relate to aircraft fleet planning and the impacts on Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer.
However, the JetBlue-Spirit Airlines merger is an exception.
Much has already been written about the questions arising about whether the US Department of Justice will approve the merger; the incompatibility of the two business models; the cost to reconfigure Spirit’s airplanes to the JetBlue cabin standards; and, to some degree, the disparity in labor costs.
It’s the latter I will focus on today.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 31. Mixed architectures.
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 5, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This week, we look at two eVTOLs that don’t fit the terminology we use; Multicopters, Vectored thrust, or Lift and Cruise. The Vertical VX4 and Archer Maker are Lift and Cruise designs, but they use vectored thrusters for the cruise thrust, Figure 1.
Figure 1. The Vertical VX4. Source: Vertical Aerospace.
Embraer 2nd Quarter 2022: Mixed results as EVE is spun off
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 4, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented its 2Q2022 results today. The airframer booked lower revenue and net profit as deliveries of the E195-E2 tanked, but margins were up in all divisions except Defence and Security due to strict cost control.
Revenue and net profit were down by 10% compared with 2Q2021, whereas margin and cash flow improved due to cost containment and the spin-off of the EVE VTOL activity. Sales were positive, with backlog growing 0.5bn from 1Q2022 to $17,8bn. The company confirmed the 2022 guidance.
