Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing adds 737 MAX 7 to at-risk status with MAX 10 for cancellation over FAA certification
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 26, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing may terminate the 737 MAX 7 program if the deadline for a cockpit warning system is not extended, blocking certification.
Boeing 737-7 MAX. Credit: Boeing.
CEO David Calhoun previously said the 737 MAX 10 program might be certified.
In a federal filing of the 10Q quarterly report today, Boeing added that the MAX 7’s future is in doubt.
“If the Aircraft Certification, Safety and Accountability Act (ACSAA) deadline is not amended [beyond Dec. 27 this year] and we otherwise fail to achieve certification, we might choose to discontinue the MAX 7 and/or MAX 10, resulting in future earnings charges and other financial impacts. We may be able to partially mitigate some of these financial impacts to the extent that customers exercise substitution rights into MAX 8 and/or MAX 9 aircraft,” Boeing wrote in its 10Q.
HOTR: Trump’s 757 return
Oct. 26, 2022, (c) Leeham News: There was a bit of a splash on the Internet when the VIP-configured Boeing 757 owned by Donald Trump was delivered to Palm Beach (FL) after undergoing refurbishment and maintenance. The airplane had been in storage since Trump assumed the presidency in 2017.
Trump critics and cynics claimed the airplane has a range of 4,400 statute miles and speculated that Trump might flee to Saudi Arabia or Moscow now that he has his 757 back.
LNA’s Aircraft Performance Model (APM) was put to use to analyze just how far the 757 can go. For this exercise, we ignored winds, hold times, and alternates—focusing only on the advertised range. Passenger-configured 757-200s (Trump’s model, with Rolls-Royce engines) can seat up to 200 people. Trump’s VIP-configured airplane can carry 25 or one—it’s up to Trump. VIP configuration weighs a lot, so this is taken into account in our analysis.
Distance from West Palm Beach (FL) and Bangor, Maine, to Moscow. Analysis by Leeham News Aircraft Performance Model. Graphic from Great Circle Mapper.
The APM analysis concludes that with the maximum allowable extra fuel tanks, the aircraft can go up to 5,000nm when flown with 25 passengers of equivalent weight. Without the extra fuel tanks, the range is 4,000nm. As a general rule, winds, hold time and alternates reduce the range by up to 20%, depending on the flight’s direction.
Ranges from Bangor, Maine, via Leeham News Aircraft Performance Model. Graphic Great Circle Mapper.
UPDATE: Calhoun upbeat on cash flow despite fifth consecutive quarterly loss
By Bryan Corliss
Oct. 26, 2022, (c) Leeham News: The Boeing Co. posted a loss from operations of nearly $2.8 billion for the third quarter, citing losses on fixed-price defense development programs that offset an overall 4% growth in revenues.
The consensus of Wall Street analysts earlier this week was that Boeing would announce profits of 13 cents a share and would break a streak of four consecutive losing quarters. Instead, Boeing posted a loss of $5.49 a share.
However, in a conference call with stock analysts later in the morning, Calhoun was upbeat, emphasizing Boeing’s positive operating cash flow of nearly $3.2 billion for the quarter.
“This quarter was a big one for us,” he said. “We hit a marker … to generate positive cash flow.”
Boeing booked losses of roughly $1.95 billion on two defense programs, CFO Brian West said: KC-46 tankers and new Air Force One presidential transports. Both are fixed-price contracts for commercial jet conversions that forced Boeing to eat any cost overruns.
“We aren’t embarrassed by them,” Calhoun said. “They are what they are.”
But in an interview with CNBC’s Phillip LeBeau Wednesday, Calhoun said Boeing will not do fixed-price defense contracts in the future. “That is not our intent.”
Summary:
- BCA: 737 and 787 deliveries resume; engines in short supply
BDS: ‘Labor instability’ hurts key programs
Calhoun: Boeing ‘supports China’ but is re-marketing planes
Read more
Lockheed Martin expects competitive bidding for next tanker
By Byan Corliss
Oct. 25, 2022 © Leeham News: A Lockheed Martin official said the company believes the U.S. Air Force will end up seeking competing bids for the next batch of aerial refueling tankers it will buy.
When that happens, the company is confident the Air Force will pick its proposed LMXT tanker, based on the Airbus A330 airframe, for the role, said Larry Gallogly, who is Lockheed Martin’s director for the tanker campaign.
Back in 2007, the Air Force outlined a plan under which it would replace its then-existing tanker fleet in three rounds, KC-X, KC-Y and KC-Z.
KC-X, after many missteps, became the KC-46 program. The Air Force now is looking ahead to KC-Y, but with the recent steps forward with Boeing’s KC-46, some are arguing that a full-blown tanker competition isn’t necessary because USAF could just tack on additional orders to the 179 KC-46s it now plans to buy.
But during a briefing from Lockheed Martin’s offices in Alexandria, Va. today, Gallogly said he expects the Air Force will announce its criteria for the next round of tankers after the first of the year. When it does, Gallogly continued, it’s likely that the Air Force will be seeking a more-capable tanker than the one it’s buying now.
“If we take all of the stakeholders at their word that the requirements are vastly different than they were 16 years ago, that takes you down a path where a competition is more likely than not,” Gallogly said.
Summary
- Lockheed Martin teams with Airbus for proposal
- LMXT differnt from Airbus KC-330
- USAF approved KC-46 for all missions last month
“The music will stop” because aviation will miss target “green” deadlines: Boeing’s Calhoun
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By Scott Hamilton
David Calhoun. Source: Boeing.
Oct. 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun believes that the plethora of concepts for shifting to “green” aviation may be confusing policymakers.
And, he says, the pace outlined by the commercial aviation industry may contribute to the confusion.
Calhoun also said that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while the most promising near-term technology to reduce aviation emissions, isn’t an easy solution, nor is it a complete solution.
Calhoun made his remarks last month at the US Chamber of Commerce Aerospace Summit in Washington (DC).
Pontifications: Two sentences described Boeing’s last two years
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 24, 2022, © Leeham News: The question to Boeing CEO David Calhoun was put in levity. His response was telling.
Susanne Clark, the president of the US Chamber of Commerce, noted before last month’s Aerospace Summit that Calhoun assumed the CEO position in January 2020.
“It’s been a long 10 years,” she postulated.
“Yes, it’s been a long 20 years,” Calhoun replied.
These two sentences couldn’t describe the situation at Boeing more clearly.
Although Calhoun had been on the Board of Directors since 2009, including serving as lead director, the challenges he faced with the 737 MAX grounding were greater than he expected. Two months after becoming CEO, the COVID-19 pandemic erupted. And seven months later, deliveries of the 787 were suspended.
The MAX and 787 issues went on much longer than anyone expected. (The MAX challenges still aren’t over.) Recovery from the pandemic is going better than forecast.
The Chamber’s Aerospace Summit was an in-person event. The previous one was in March 2020.
HOTR: Amazon to add A330 P2F to Prime Air fleet
Oct. 21, 2022, © Leeham News: Amazon’s Prime Air will add 10 Airbus A330-300 freighters to its fleet from 2023. The aircraft will be converted by EFW, in which Airbus is a partner, and leased from Altavair of Issaquah (WA).
Source: Airbus.
These are the first A330 freighters that will be operated under the Prime Air brand. Hawaiian Airlines, an A330 operator, will operate the planes. Prime Air largely contracts out flight operations. Atlas Air flies Boeing 767-300ERFs and Sun Country fly Boeing 737Fs for Prime Air.
EFW now has orders for more than 100 A330 conversions, nearly all for the -300 model.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 42. eVTOL range.
By Bjorn Fehrm.
October 21, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article Part 42P, eVTOL range. It discusses the range of a typical eVTOL flying a feeder mission from a city center to an airport.
The 42P article details the energy consumption for each stage in the mission and the range we fly. We summarize the results here.
Figure 1. The Vertical Aerospace VX4 in an early rendering with similar looks to the eVTOL we discuss. Source: Vertical Aerospace.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 42P. eVTOL mission range. The deeper discussion.
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October 21, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 42, eVTOL mission range. It discusses the typical maximum range we can expect from a certified eVTOL by mid-decade.
We have described the vehicle and the mission data in the three previous Corners; now, we analyze the energy consumption for the mission and discuss the range we can achieve.
Engine Development. Part 10. Next generation engines
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 20, 2022, © Leeham News: We finish our series about engine development by looking at the next-generation engines and future trends in airliner engine development.
We limit this look forward to engines that burn Jet fuel (Jet-A1 or SAF) as green propulsion solutions are a vast field and justify their own series. We will pick this up at a future date.
The Boeing 777-9, the first airliner with next-generation engines. Source: Boeing.
Summary
- The major reduction in fuel consumption and, thus, CO2 emissions will come from new engines.
- The technologies to drive fuel consumption down a further 15% are there.