Pontifications: Why I won’t be flying any time soon

July 6, 2020, © Leeham News: I really, really want to return to traveling by air soon. But I don’t expect to fly until next year.

By Scott Hamilton

I’m not worried about being on the airplane. As LNA’s Bjorn Fehrm detailed over a series of Friday posts, the cabin purification technology scrubs the air every few minutes.

The problem is not the airplane.

It’s the people who fly.

Here’s why.

Stupid is as stupid does

It’s as if these passengers still don’t realize there’s a pandemic out there.

And most airlines aren’t enforcing a mask policy. The federal government won’t issue a rule requiring masks.

In the USA, the number of diagnosed cases has exploded. Dr. Anthony Fauci predicts there will be 100,000 new cases daily at this rate.

Deaths in the USA are forecast to hit 150,000 soon.

In the USA, there are plenty of instances where crowds pack beaches and bars failing to practice safe procedures.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas was one of the first to reopen the state to normalcy. Now, cases and death spiked to much that he backtracked and returned to restrictions. Other Red (Republican) state governors who initially downplayed the threat are now backtracking as virus cases explode.

California, a Blue state, was the first to implement Stay at Home restrictions. Cases declined. Then Memorial Day arrived and the beaches filled without safe practices. Gov. Gavin Newsom is cracking down again after coronavirus cases spiked sharply.

Nearly 20 states reversed steps taken toward opening society.

(In the UK, there was a widely circulated photo of a beach in Bournemouth that was so packed, it seemed one couldn’t move.)

Traveling

LNA’s Vincent Valery recently flew trans-con US flights. Passengers didn’t wear masks and enplaned/deplaned in the herd we know well from pre-COVID days.

Some airlines block center seats. Others abandoned the practice recently or didn’t do so from the start. (When flights were operating 10% full, blocking seats didn’t matter.)

Blocking center seats really is cosmetic. Social distancing guidelines call for six feet between you and the next person. Blocking a center seat provides about 18 inches wide and 29-30 inches fore-and-aft.

Cabin air recirculates every 2-4 minutes and the filters are effective in removing viruses. But absent masks, as Fehrm wrote in the first of his flying-in-COVID series, droplets surge more than two meters in a cough. With a mask, the droplets are largely contained.

Passengers flying without masks put everyone at risk in those 2-4 minutes, as well as during enplaning and deplaning.

Containing the virus requires passenger cooperation. It’s not there yet.

 

 

196 Comments on “Pontifications: Why I won’t be flying any time soon

  1. Those pictures of Bournemouth beach are cunningly shot from the side and foreshortened, check out the pictures taken from above by a drone.
    It doesn’t really matter how well airline passengers behave, its the general effect of travel on the population that dictates the recovery of the airline industry.
    Covid19 has highlighted the fact that airline travel is a bit dodgy for old people. They were already gambling with DVT and a nasty dose of ordinary flu.

  2. Six healthcare specialist, including Fauci, were interviewed by the Washington Post.
    All said they would not fly under current circumstances.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/how-fauci-5-other-health-specialists-deal-with-covid-19-risks-in-their-everyday-lives/2020/07/02/d4665ed6-b6fb-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html

    Without rigorously enforced mask mandate, which the airlines could implement on their own through their transportation contracts, only covidiots will use their service.

    • The whole COVID-19 situation has become highly political with the issue being exaggerated or underplayed(more rarely) depending on national or political affiliation and associated agenda’s. Logos is dead. The most intelligent thing to do is to start thinking for one’ self and not trust, least of all the media, WHO or even Rockstar CDC epidemiologists, software/vaccine monopolists, search engine or social media companies.

      German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they’d been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection.

      In other words for every confirmed infection obtained via nasal swabs there were 14 times as many with blood antigens and therefore immunity. In some countries , seemingly Sweden and maybe Germany, we may be approaching herd immunity around 30%.

      There is nothing lost in washing or sanitising hands so I’m doing it. There is nothing lost in sanitising hands and trolley on entering a supermarket so I’m doing it. There is little lost in wearing a mask when entering a supermarket or Resturaunt or bording-debording an aircraft until seated. It’s impractical to wear masks when seated at resturaunt or aircraft. I think these measures will ultimately be proven unnecessary but it prudent to do them until they can be dismissed.

      If you are over 60 you likely have a senile immune system means you need to be much more careful.

      I’m convinced people are prepared to destroy an economy to win an election or create racial tensions to do so. There will be lesion’s in how this disease was handled but the greater ones will be in how human tendency to dishonesty exploit crisis distorted our response.

      Steriods seem to reduce fatalities by 30%. Chrloroxyquinine seems to work if taken early and by people without vascular issues.

      We know a lot more about this disease now and can change our response.

      This disease doesn’t scare me anymore, what scares me is people.

      Just think of the cost to Airlines, Airbus, Boeing, jobs and lives.

      • It is great that you find those measure sensible.

        I think that take them more seriously, leave them out of politics and promote them is exactly the best chance to get some recovery in the economy

        Yesterday a serology study was released for Spain, even in hard hit places like Madrid, the antibodies are present in around 10% of the population (5% nation wide) ( shorturl.at/mxyW4 )

        I saw an article about the German and Sweden 30%, they say that having had a previous cold “may provide some degree of immune protection from the COVID-19 virus”

          • The chart I saw had range. The “mean” and an 80% confidence interval. The 30% comes from the upper range of the confidence interval so a mean of 10% is more likely. It’s a little harder to get this information as main stream media have a moral panic narrative they are doubling down on. I get a lot of clues from bitchute (which isn’t censored to conform with WHO/CDC) which lets me find the alternative sources. I occasionally donate blood. When I’m feeling unwell I tend not to donate, both to protect recipients but also because loosing 600ml of blood feels rough if you are rundown. I therefore think donor blood would under play the infection rate.

          • Latest Stockholm mid May antibodies around 15%. Then a study of previously infected persons (200 people previously confirmed infected) showed that only around 1/3 had antibodies, but a more advanced test of TCells showed TCell response for more than 2/3. So add another 30% to the 15% with antibodies plus the currently infected and Stocholms should be close to heard immunity. Which also shows in the fact that almost no people are coming into intensive care on Stocholm Hospitals currently. Should be a similar situation for hard hit regions like Madrid, Northen Italy, New York etc.

      • The “Gangelt” data is not as clear cut as it was presented.
        Especially post infection immunity is not a sure thing.

        What I find interesting is that waste water samples ( taken from processing plants on a regular basis and frozen, archived) seem to show CoVid19 RNA much earlier than turn of 2019/2020.( This questions assumptions about the the real source too )

        • Post infection immunity seems likely near to 100%, most people who subsequently develop COVID-19 likely never cleared of the disease and may have lingered with other infections.

          People that have antibodies should be allowed to travel and work without restriction. That will bootstrap the airline industry with 5%-10% of the population already likely being eligible.

          The disease is likely to be one massive hoax as the data becomes clear. I’m not ready to call it yet but Id bet on it. The disease is dangerous for the elderly which is why I take care.

          • Hello William,

            Regarding: “Post infection immunity seems likely near to 100% …”

            If you have proof of this you should submit a paper for publication and share your results with the world medical community, as much time and effort is currently being spent on trying to establish if this is the case, with some early results suggesting that it may not be the case. Note that you will be required to submit results of patient tests or lab results that support your paper, in particular, scientific journals do not accept speeches by politicians or video clips or transcripts of cable TV shows for publication.

            The excerpts below are from the 6-18-20 New York Times article at the link after the excerpts.

            “It’s a question that has haunted scientists since the pandemic began: Does everyone infected with the virus produce antibodies — and if so, how long do they last?

            Not very long, suggests a new study published Thursday in Nature Medicine. Antibodies — protective proteins made in response to an infection — may last only two to three months, especially in people who never showed symptoms while they were infected.

            The conclusion does not necessarily mean that these people can be infected a second time, several experts cautioned. Even low levels of powerful neutralizing antibodies may still be protective, as are the immune system’s T cells and B cells.

            But the results offer a strong note of caution against the idea of “immunity certificates” for people who have recovered from the illness, the authors suggested.”

            “Dr. Iwasaki was more concerned than the other experts about the two new studies.

            “These reports highlight the need to develop strong vaccines, because immunity that develops naturally during infection is suboptimal and short-lived in most people,” she said. “We cannot rely on natural infection to achieve herd immunity.”

            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/health/coronavirus-antibodies.html

          • Thanks for the post, AP_Robert. This is indeed a huge question at the moment, and one I’m following closely.

  3. It’s (particularly) at times like this that one (more clearly) realizes that the human race is largely comprised of cattle-with-clothing.

  4. I flew yesterday evening from FRA to GVA on a Swiss C-Series (aka A220- I am a Canadian BBD fan. ) Everyone was wearing a mask – in airport, in the LH Lounge and on the plane. The mask wearing was “highly recemmended”, but people get it. However, Switzerland did not enforce mask wearing overall, the cases are Slightly spiking ( from 20/ day to about 100/ day) for the country. As of today, mask wearing is obligatory on trams, buses and trains. Hopefully, the US can manage somehow , until the big, hoped for change in November, that the rest of the world is praying for.

    • Jeremy – “the big, hoped for change in November”
      Be careful what you wish for, change might comprise a second (thiird?) wave… Oh, you weren’t thinking of the pandemic – whatever can you have meant?

      • Many US states under popular/central government (?) pressure were stupid enough to relax measures at the same time many countries in Europe did. The little difference was that all states in Europe that opened up, had quick declining or close to 0 new cases. In the US states, case numbers were flat and still high or even going up. Ough……The US is not in its 2nd wave. It just is continuing and expanding its first.

      • COVID-19 will go away after the election like it did during recent “protests”.

  5. Oh please, you can try to blame Republicans, but might note at least the large ‘peaceful protests’ that have coincided with the case increase (not republican rioters), and as well that the death rate in Texas (since you’re calling it out specifically) has been, well, basically flat since April, around 30 per day. More cases really doesn’t matter much, it’s hospital utilization. (BTW, the much ballyhooed stats of ICU usage in Houston around 95 percent is actually lower than it was at the same time last year).

    https://covidusa.net/?state=Texas

    Fauci’s models and predictions have been entirely wrong this whole pandemic, and frankly he’s in love with anyone with a microphone/camera so much I tuned him out completely in early May.

    • The irony is that nearly all of those protesters have been wearing masks. But the folks at the beach or at family gatherings haven’t. That’s the issue. I’m really getting sick and tired of people denying there is a problem. The rest of the world is figuring out how to solve this. Us stupid Americans are living in denial and refuse to address the issue and instead it turns into a partisan play. Get over it and wear a mask,

      • And then you have the Doofuses in Boise (ID) who held a mask-burning yesterday.

        • I (as a European) just can say ……………………….

          • What kind of European? The EU is a loose federation with each country handling its own response differently much as the US is a federation. Left wing Sweden has minimal restrictions ( due to constitutional restrictions, not politics) yet escapes hyperbolic criticism because it has a leftist government. Czech Republic followed the advice of Taiwan not EU or WHO and has been most successful. They amount of media panic in a state or country correlates not with infection rates but with the alignment of the party in power. “Orange man bad” is all that is driving this.

          • @William

            As with your distorted views on climate change and what appears to be your belief in silly Covid-19 conspiracy theories, you don’t seem to know a whole lot about Sweden.

            Claiming, therefore, that Sweden escapes hyperbolic criticism because it has a leftist government, just shows how right-wing voices — one such voice apparently being yoursef — play an outsized role in spreading mis- and disinformation online about the coronavirus pandemic worldwide.

            While the US and the UK show the dangers of a weak state and incapable politicians, Sweden shows what happens when you place too much trust in a handful of administrators (i.e. like their state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell), without first protecting yourself with a robustly argumentative culture that allows you to question whether they are right. If Anders Tegnell had said Sweden should have locked down rather than remain open, the politicians and public would have obeyed his orders as faithfully.

            Sweden has not imposed a lockdown, unlike many other countries, and kept large parts of its society open. The Swedish Constitution legally protects the freedom of movement for the people, thus preventing a lockdown in peace time. The Swedish public is expected to follow a series of non-voluntary recommendations[note 2] from the government agency responsible for this area, in this case the Public Health Agency of Sweden (Folkhälsomyndigheten). The Swedish Constitution prohibits ministerial rule – politicians overruling the advice from its agencies is extremely unusual in Sweden – and mandates that the relevant government body, in this case an expert agency – the Public Health Agency – must initiate all actions to prevent the virus in accordance with Swedish law, rendering state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell a central figure in the crisis. Having an expert agency almost completely in control of the country’s COVID-19 response without the involvement of politicians set Sweden apart from other countries.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden

            But obviously encouraging personal responsibility is a long way from other countries, many of whom are in effective quarantine enforced by police patrolling the streets. There is a rising tide of debate about in Sweden whether encouragement is enough. At this point it may be relevant to consider that Sweden has largely avoided being at war for centuries — for various reasons, good and bad — and so being the language and dynamics of ‘being on a war-time footing’ are relatively alien here, in a way they are not for most other countries.

            https://medium.com/slowdown-papers/7-cultures-of-decision-making-in-sweden-and-beyond-352d92fde850

      • The misinformation that political parties have foisted on people has never fell so flat as these guys attempt to sidestep the realities of Covid-19. And they tell some great ones. You know, things like we don’t need a strong FAA. A great man once said: “You can fool all the people, some of the time; and some of the people, all of the time; but you cannot fool all the people, all of the time.” I think Abraham Lincoln said that, or did I hear it on a Bob Dylan album…

        • Sam – unfortunately one can fool oneself rather too much of the time.

        • That’s a great observation. The reality of political philosophy is that the issues are usually too complex to determine the precise impact, right or wrong, so you can argue one side or the other.

          But COVID is different as you cannot verbally attack or discredit it out of existence. Or minimize the impact by holding a press conference, or by controlling the news cycle, talk radio, or the TV talk shows.

          So the usual methods won’t work. Only being informed, learning, understanding, and adapting will work. I’m sure that’s confusing so perhaps they will attempt to double-down or go all-in, instead of changing.

          The other issue is that since COVID is a world-wide crisis, we are seeing some other countries be much more successful in recovering. So that will become increasingly difficult to explain or cover up with political philosophy alone.

        • @Sam Walker

          Yes, you can hear that qoute on theFreewheelin’ Bob Dylan album.

          Song: Talkin’ World War III Blues

          Btw, Dylan followed the same style and construction on his “talking blues” songs, including “Talking World War III Blues,” which replaced “Talkin’ John Birch Paranoid Blues” on the Freewheelin’ Bob Dylan album

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talkin%27_John_Birch_Paranoid_Blues


          Well, now time passed and now it seems

          Everybody’s having them dreams

          Everybody sees themselves

          Walkin’ around with no one else

          Half of the people can be part right all of the time

          Some of the people can be all right part of the time

          But all of the people can’t be all right all of the time

          I think Abraham Lincoln said that

          “I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours”

          I said that

          http://www.bobdylan.com/songs/talkin-world-war-iii-blues/

          • PT Barnum, Abraham Lincoln and Bob Dylan – what did these three men have in common??? None of them followed Aerospace. I got to find more relevant quotes for leehamnews.

    • Hello Texl1649,

      Regarding: “… the death rate in Texas (since you’re calling it out specifically) has been, well, basically flat since April, …”.

      I think that you must have accidentally posted a link to data that is different than the that which you based the above statement on. The values used in the calculations below are taken from the “AVG DEATHS PER DAY OVER TIME” graph (7 day rolling averages) in the link you gave in your post, updated as of 10:11 Am EDT on 7-6-20. According to these calculations, the data you posted a link to shows average deaths per day (ADPD) increasing by a factor of 3.75 from 4-1-20 to 4-30-20, increasing another 19% from 5-1-20 to 5-15-20, dropping by 76% from 5-20-20 to 5-31-20, then increasing by 50% from 6-1-20 to 7-5-20. While it is true that ADPD on 7-5-20 (33) was within 6.5% of ADPD on 5-1-20 (31), it seems to me that failing to mention that ADPD climbed 19% to 37 between these dates (on 5-15-20), and then dropped 76% to 21 on 5-31-20, before climbing 50 % back up to 33 currently (7-5-20), is a significant mischaracterization of the presented data.

      ADPD = Average deaths per day (7 day rolling average).

      4-1-20: ADPD = 8
      4-30-20: ADPD = 30
      ADPD on 4-1/ADPD on 4-30 = 3.75, an increase by a factor of 3.75

      5-1-20: ADPD = 31

      5-15-20: ADPD = 37
      5-16-20: ADPD = 36
      5-17-20: ADPD = 36
      5-18-20: ADPD = 34
      5-19-20: ADPD = 35
      5-20-20: ADPD =37
      From 5-1-20 to 5-15-20 ADPD increased by a factor 37/31 = 1.19 of (19%), on top of the increase by a factor of 3.75 from 4-1-20 to 4-30-20.

      5-29-20: ADPD = 22
      5-30-20: ADPD = 25
      5-31-20: ADPD = 21
      After peaking at 37 on 5-15-20 and 5-20-20, ADPD decreased by 76% (37/21 = 1.76) from 5-20-20 to 5-31-20.

      6-1-20: ADPD = 22
      6-2-20: ADPD = 25
      6-3-20; ADPD = 24

      7-3-20: ADPD = 34
      7-4-20: ADPD = 32
      7-5-20:ADPD = 33

      From 6-1-20 to 7-5-20 ADPD has increased by a factor of 33/22=1.5 (50%).

      Regarding: “Fauci’s models and predictions have been entirely wrong this whole pandemic … ”

      Can you provide some specific examples of Fauci’s predictions that have been entirely wrong?

      From what I have read, while Fauci’s predictions have not been perfect, he is doing much better than politicians who predicted that COVID-19 was completely under control and would soon go away, or would go away when weather got warmer in April, that COVID-19 was just a hoax, or that hyroxychloroquine would be a miracle cure.

      • Update as of 2:35 PM EDT 7-8-20 from the Texas COVID-19 statistics at the link Texl1649 provided before he went into hiding.

        ADPD = Average COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas (7 day rolling average).

        7-5-20: ADPD = 33 (The last value cited in my post above).
        7-6-20: ADPD = 38 ( This was a new record high)
        7-7-20: ADPD = 47 (This was a new record high)

        After dropping 76% from the previous record high of 37 on 5-20-20, to 21 on 5-31-20 (37/21=1.76), ADPD has now, from 5-31-20 to 7-7-20, increased by a factor of 2.24 (47/21=2.24), to a new (but not for long) record high of 47, which is 27% higher than the value of 37 on 5-15-20 and 5-20-20 which was the record high until 2 days ago (47/37=1.27). Since I am an unintelligent leftist by Texl1649’s definition (my California friends think that I am a conservative, my Idaho friends think I am a leftist, but not unintelligent), I cannot appreciate, as Texl1649 does, that this is “basically flat”.

        https://covidusa.net/?state=Texas

      • Nothing at all to worry about in Texas!

        The don’t worry be happy excerpts below, are from the 7-7-20 Newsweek article at the link after the excerpts.

        “Hospitals in at least five regions across the state have reported less than 10 intensive care unit (ICU) beds as being available, according to the latest report Monday from the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS).

        The Nuevo Laredo region in southern Texas at the border with Mexico was reported to have the least number of ICU beds available with only five, according to the Texas DSHS.

        The Beaumont region of eastern Texas was reported to have six available ICU beds, followed by the Corpus Christi region of southern Texas, which was reported to have seven ICU beds free.

        The Victoria region and San Angelo region were each reported to have nine ICU beds available, as of Monday.”

        “Doctors in San Antonio last week reported hospital beds were running out, with nearly two dozen COVID-19 patients said to be waiting in emergency rooms for beds to be available.

        Last week, hospitals in Houston were reported to be moving patients to facilities outside the city to cope with the surge in COVID-19-related cases and lack of beds.”

        https://www.newsweek.com/icu-beds-running-out-5-texas-regions-covid-19-cases-pass-200000-1515992

      • More don’t worry be happy news from Texas, this time from a 7-7-20 story on the website of Forbes, a US Business magazine!

        “TOPLINE Texas on Tuesday reported its worst day of impacts from the coronavirus pandemic so far, with record increases in new cases, hospitalizations and deaths as the crisis in the state shows no signs of letting up while ICUs in some areas reach capacity.”

        https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/07/07/worst-day-yet-texas-sets-records-for-coronavirus-deaths-hospitalizations-and-new-cases/#693180ce766d

      • Still states as Texas and Florida have no excess mortality rate for first half of 2020 ! (Texas 99% and Florida 98% of expected deaths). So I think that the cure (close down of economy) is worse than the decease.

        • The CDC site on excess mortality shows that in 2020, through mid-June, Texas has had 2K excess deaths above the predicted threshold for non-COVID deaths (95% confidence interval), and 5K excess deaths above the state average death rate for the same period averaged over 2015-2019.

          The lower bound of 2K reflects the direct impact of COVID. The higher bound of 5K reflects the finding that other causes of death also increase during a pandemic, mostly in vulnerable populations such as the elderly who have comorbidity. In Texas there has been a sharp rise in deaths due to Alzheimer’s & dementia.

          In Florida the bounds are 1K and 4K excess deaths. The smaller lower bound reflects their initial success in targeted lockdowns. The upper bound reflects increases in deaths due to stroke and dementia.

          These data do not reflect the recent surges, as death reporting may take 10 to 14 days (CDC average is 60% reported after 10 days). Also we know that deaths lag the infection rate significantly.

      • For the third day in a row, the 7 day rolling average of COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas, as reported on the website that Texl1649 provided a link to before he went into hiding, has hit a new record high.

        ADPD = Average COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas (7 day rolling average) according to the link provided above by Texl1649 and below by me, as of 11:01 AM EDT on 7-9-20.

        7-5-20: ADPD = 33
        7-6-20: ADPD = 38 ( New record high, up 15.2% from the previous day)
        7-7-20: ADPD = 47 (New record high, up 23.7% from the previous day)
        7-8-20: ADPD = 54 (New record high, up 14.9% from the previous day)

        After dropping 76% from the previous record high of 37 on 5-20-20, to 21 on 5-31-20 (37/21=1.76), ADPD has now, from 5-31-20 to 7-8-20, increased by a factor of 2.57 (54/21=2.57), to a new (but not for long) record high of 54, which is 46% higher than the value of 37 on 5-15-20 and 5-20-20 which was the record high until 4 days ago (54/37=1.46).

        Those of you are like me “unintelligent leftists”, as determined by Texl1649, will unable to see, as Texl1649 does, that this is “basically flat”.

        https://covidusa.net/?state=Texas

        Junior High School Math Review Problem: If a quantity is going up by 15% a day, how long will it take for the quantity to double? How long will it take for the quantity to triple?

        • For the fourth day in a row, the 7 day rolling average of COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas, as reported on the website that Texl1649 provided a link to before he went into hiding, has hit a new record high.

          ADPD = Average COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas (7 day rolling average) according to the link provided above by Texl1649 and below by me, as of 9:04 AM EDT on 7-10-20.

          7-5-20: ADPD = 33
          7-6-20: ADPD = 38 ( New record high, up 15.2% from the prior day)
          7-7-20: ADPD = 47 (New record high, up 23.7% from the prior day)
          7-8-20: ADPD = 54 (New record high, up 14.9% from the prior day)
          7-9-20: ADPD = 67 (New record high, up 24.1% from the prior day)

          ADPD more than doubled, repeat MORE THAN DOUBLED, in the 4 days from 7-5-20 to 7-9-20. Pray for the people of Texas.

          After dropping 76% from the previous record high of 37 on 5-20-20, to 21 on 5-31-20 (37/21=1.76), ADPD has now, from 5-31-20 to 7-9-20, increased by a factor of 3.19 (67/21=3.17), to a new (but not for long) record high of 67, which is 81% higher than the value of 37 on 5-15-20 and 5-20-20 which was the record high until 4 days ago (67/37=1.81).

          https://covidusa.net/?state=Texas

          Answer to the first part of yesterday’s junior high school math review problem.

          Q: If a quantity is going up by 15% a day, how long will it take for the quantity to double?

          A: Growth by a constant percentage per time period is what was called exponential growth where I went to school (San Francisco, CA area public schools, University of California, and University of Texas Health Science Center in Houston), but apparently was called “basically flat” where Texl1649 went to school.

          For a growth rate of 15% per day, the doubling time will be:

          log 2 / log 1.15 = 4.96 days.

          https://financeformulas.net/Doubling_Time.html

          The range of daily percent increases in ADPD in Texas over the last four days has been 14.9% to 24.1%. For a daily growth rate of 24%, the doubling time would be log 2/log 1.24 = 3.22 days. I pray for the people of Texas, especially those who have not been ignoring the advice of medical experts, that ADPD will not for long continue to grow exponentially in Texas with a doubling time of 5 days or shorter.

          For any who completed elementary school but think the above is just lies using the high falutin math of the elites who passed and understood their junior high school math classes, the doubling time I calculated above can easily be verified using elementary school math.

          For a 15% daily growth rate.
          Day 0: ADPD = N
          1 day later: ADPD = 1.15 N
          2 days later: ADPD = 1.15 x 1.15 N = 1.3225 N
          3 days later: ADPD = 1.15 x 1.3225 N = 1.521 N
          4 days later: ADPD = 1.15 x 1.521 N = 1.749 N
          5 days later: ADPD = 1.15 x 1.749 N = 2.011 N

        • For the fifth and sixth days in a row, the 7 day rolling average of COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas, as reported on the website that Texl1649 provided a link to before he went into hiding, has hit new record highs.

          ADPD = Average COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas (7 day rolling average) according to the link provided above by Texl1649 and below by me, as of 10:23 AM EDT on 7-12-20. Thankfully for the people of Texas, the daily percentage increase in ADPD has slowed the last two days. Hopefully, this reflects an actual slowing in the rate of increase in ADPD, rather than reflecting that in some counties the people who report deaths leave the office early on Friday afternoons and get Saturdays and Sundays off.

          7-5-20: ADPD = 33
          7-6-20: ADPD = 38 ( New record high, up 15.2% from the prior day)
          7-7-20: ADPD = 47 (New record high, up 23.7% from the prior day)
          7-8-20: ADPD = 54 (New record high, up 14.9% from the prior day)
          7-9-20: ADPD = 67 (New record high, up 24.1% from the prior day)
          7-10-20: ADPD = 68 (New record high, up 1.5% from the prior day)
          7-11-20: ADPD = 76 (New record high, up 11.8% from the prior day)

          ADPD more than doubled from 33 to 67, in the 4 days from 7-5-20 to 7-9-20, and doubled from 38 to 76 in the 5 days from 7-6-20 to 7-11-20.

          After dropping 76% from the previous record high of 37 on 5-20-20, to 21 on 5-31-20 (37/21=1.76), ADPD has now, from 5-31-20 to 7-11-20, increased by a factor of 3.62 (76/21=3.62), to a new (but not for long) record high of 76, which is more than double the value of 37 on 5-15-20 and 5-20-20 which was the record high until 6 days ago (76/37=2.05).

          https://covidusa.net/?state=Texas

        • For the seventh and eight days in a row, the 7 day rolling average of COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas, as reported on the website that Texl1649 provided a link to before he went into hiding, has hit new record highs.

          ADPD = Average COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas (7 day rolling average) according to the link provided above by Texl1649 and below by me, as of 9:34 PM EDT on 7-14-20. Thankfully for the people of Texas, the daily percentage increase in ADPD has slowed the last four days.

          7-5-20: ADPD = 33
          7-6-20: ADPD = 38 ( New record high, up 15.2% from the prior day)
          7-7-20: ADPD = 47 (New record high, up 23.7% from the prior day)
          7-8-20: ADPD = 54 (New record high, up 14.9% from the prior day)
          7-9-20: ADPD = 67 (New record high, up 24.1% from the prior day)
          7-10-20: ADPD = 68 (New record high, up 1.5% from the prior day)
          7-11-20: ADPD = 76 (New record high, up 11.8% from the prior day)
          7-12-20: ADPD = 84 (New record high, up 10.5% from the prior day)
          7-13-20: ADPD = 86 (New record high, up 2.4% from the prior day).

          ADPD has more than doubled from 38 to 86, in the 7 days from 7-6-20 to to 7-13-20 (86/38=2.26).

          After dropping 76% from the previous record high of 37 on 5-20-20, to 21 on 5-31-20 (37/21=1.76), ADPD has now, from 5-31-20 to 7-13-20, more than quadrupled to a new record high of 86 (86/21=4.10), which is more than double the value of 37 on 5-15-20 and 5-20-20 which was the record high until 8 days ago (86/37=2.32).

          https://covidusa.net/?state=Texas

        • Good news and bad news for the people of Texas from the website that Texl1649 provided a link to before he went into hiding.

          THE GOOD NEWS: On 7-14-20, the eight day streak of new record highs every day for the 7 day rolling average of COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas, was broken with a 2.4% day to day decrease, and the average daily increases continue to drop.

          THE BAD NEWS: After decreasing on 7-14-20, the 7 day rolling average of COVID-19 death per day in Texas, again set new record highs on 7-15-20 and 7-16-20.

          ADPD = Average COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas (7 day rolling average) according to the link provided above by Texl1649 and below by me, as of 1:14 AM EDT on 7-17-20.

          7-5-20: ADPD = 33
          7-6-20: ADPD = 38 ( New record high, up 15.2% from the prior day)
          7-7-20: ADPD = 47 (New record high, up 23.7% from the prior day)
          7-8-20: ADPD = 54 (New record high, up 14.9% from the prior day)
          7-9-20: ADPD = 67 (New record high, up 24.1% from the prior day)
          7-10-20: ADPD = 68 (New record high, up 1.5% from the prior day)
          7-11-20: ADPD = 76 (New record high, up 11.8% from the prior day)
          7-12-20: ADPD = 84 (New record high, up 10.5% from the prior day)
          7-13-20: ADPD = 86 (New record high, up 2.4% from the prior day)
          7-14-20: ADPD = 84 (Down 2.4% from the prior day)
          7-15-20: ADPD =89 (New record high, up 6.0% from the prior day)
          7-16-20: ADPD = 93 (New record high, up 4.5% from the prior day)

          ADPD has approximately doubled from 47 to 93, in the 9 days from 7-7-20 to to 7-16-20 (93/47=1.98).

          After dropping 76% from the previous record high of 37 on 5-20-20, to 21 on 5-31-20 (37/21=1.76), ADPD has now, from 5-31-20 to 7-16-20, more than quadrupled to a new record high of 93 (93/21=4.43), which is greater by a factor of 2.5 than the value of 37 on 5-15-20 and 5-20-20 which was the record high until 10 days ago (86/37=2.32).

          https://covidusa.net/?autorefresh=1&state=Texas

        • According to the website that Texl1649 provided a link to before he went into hiding, the rolling 7 day average of daily COVID-19 deaths in Texas has, as of 2:26 AM EDT on 7-23-20, reached new record highs on 16 of the last 18 days.

          ADPD = Average COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas (7 day rolling average) according to the link provided above by Texl1649 and below by me, as of 2:26 AM EDT on 7-23-20.

          7-5-20: ADPD = 33
          7-6-20: ADPD = 38 ( New record high, up 15.2% from the prior day)
          7-7-20: ADPD = 47 (New record high, up 23.7% from the prior day)
          7-8-20: ADPD = 54 (New record high, up 14.9% from the prior day)
          7-9-20: ADPD = 67 (New record high, up 24.1% from the prior day)
          7-10-20: ADPD = 68 (New record high, up 1.5% from the prior day)
          7-11-20: ADPD = 76 (New record high, up 11.8% from the prior day)
          7-12-20: ADPD = 84 (New record high, up 10.5% from the prior day)
          7-13-20: ADPD = 86 (New record high, up 2.4% from the prior day)
          7-14-20: ADPD = 84 (Down 2.4% from the prior day)
          7-15-20: ADPD =89 (New record high, up 6.0% from the prior day)
          7-16-20: ADPD = 93 (New record high, up 4.5% from the prior day)
          7-17-20: ADPD =109 (New record high, up 17.2% from the prior day)
          7-18-20: ADPD = 115 (New record high, up 5.5% from the prior day)
          7-19-20: ADPD = 114 (Down 0.9% from the prior day)
          7-20-20: ADPD =119 (New record high, up 4.4% from the prior day)
          7-21-20: ADPD = 120 (New record high, up 0.8% from the prior day)
          7-22-20: ADPD =135 (New record high, up 12.5% from the prior day)

          ADPD has approximately doubled from 67 to 135, in the 13 days from 7-9-20 to to 7-22-20 (135/67=2.01).

          After dropping 76% from the previous record high of 37 on 5-20-20, to 21 on 5-31-20 (37/21=1.76), ADPD has now, from 5-31-20 to 7-22-20, increased by a factor of more than 6 to a new record high of 135 (135/21=6.43), which is greater by a factor of 3.65 than the value of 37 on 5-15-20 and 5-20-20 which was the record high until 16 days ago (135/37)=3.65.

          https://covidusa.net/?autorefresh=1&state=Texas

        • According to the website that Texl1649 provided a link to before he went into hiding, the rolling 7 day average of daily COVID-19 deaths in Texas has, as of 3:09 PM EDT on 7-30-20, reached new record highs on 22 of the last 24 days.

          ADPD = Average COVID-19 deaths per day in Texas (7 day rolling average) according to the link provided above by Texl1649 and below by me, as of 3:09 PM EDT on 7-30-20.

          7-5-20: ADPD = 33
          7-6-20: ADPD = 38 ( New record high, up 15.2% from the prior day)
          7-7-20: ADPD = 47 (New record high, up 23.7% from the prior day)
          7-8-20: ADPD = 54 (New record high, up 14.9% from the prior day)
          7-9-20: ADPD = 67 (New record high, up 24.1% from the prior day)
          7-10-20: ADPD = 68 (New record high, up 1.5% from the prior day)
          7-11-20: ADPD = 76 (New record high, up 11.8% from the prior day)
          7-12-20: ADPD = 84 (New record high, up 10.5% from the prior day)
          7-13-20: ADPD = 86 (New record high, up 2.4% from the prior day)
          7-14-20: ADPD = 84 (Down 2.4% from the prior day)
          7-15-20: ADPD =89 (New record high, up 6.0% from the prior day)
          7-16-20: ADPD = 93 (New record high, up 4.5% from the prior day)
          7-17-20: ADPD =109 (New record high, up 17.2% from the prior day)
          7-18-20: ADPD = 115 (New record high, up 5.5% from the prior day)
          7-19-20: ADPD = 114 (Down 0.9% from the prior day)
          7-20-20: ADPD =119 (New record high, up 4.4% from the prior day)
          7-21-20: ADPD = 120 (New record high, up 0.8% from the prior day)
          7-22-20: ADPD =135 (New record high, up 12.5% from the prior day)
          7-23-20: ADPD =138 (New record high, up 2.2% from the prior day)
          7-24-20: ADPD = 139 (New record high, up 0.7% from the prior day)
          7-25-20: ADPD =151 (New record high, up 8.6% from the prior day)
          7-26-20: ADPD =152 (New record high, up 0.7% from the prior day)
          7-27-20: ADPD =230 (New record high, up 51.3% from the prior day)
          7-28-20: ADPD = 245 (New record high, up 6.5% from the prior day)
          7-29-20: ADPD =251 (New record high, up 2.45% from the prior day)

          ADPD has more than doubled from 120 to 251, in the 8 days from 7-21-20 to to 7-29-20 (251/120=2.09).

          After dropping 76% from the previous record high of 37 on 5-20-20, to 21 on 5-31-20 (37/21=1.76), ADPD has now, from 5-31-20 to 7-29-20, increased by a factor of nearly 12 to a new record high of 251 (251/21=11.95), which is greater by a factor of 6.78 than the value of 37 on 5-15-20 and 5-20-20 which was the record high until 24 days ago (251/37)=6.8.

          https://covidusa.net/?autorefresh=1&state=Texas

          The sudden increase to ADPD = 230 on 7-27-20, from ADPD = 152 the prior day, was largely due to the Texas DSHS deciding to base COVID-19 death tallies directly death certificates, rather than on death certificates filtered through and eventually reported, or not, by local governments. See the excerpt below from the Texas DSHS website at the link after the excerpt.

          “A fatality is counted as due to COVID-19 when the medical certifier, usually a doctor with direct knowledge of the patient, determines COVID-19 directly caused the death. This method does not include deaths of people who had COVID-19 but died of an unrelated cause. Death certificates are required by law to be filed within 10 days.

          DSHS previously counted COVID-19 fatalities as they were reported publicly by local and regional health departments after they received a notification and verified the death. The length of time that process takes varies by jurisdiction and does not provide timely demographic information on most fatalities. ”

          https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news/releases/2020/20200727.aspx

    • Texas death rate was in the low 20s from late May to mid-June; it’s now approaching 40, which isn’t “flat” to me.

      But, of course, it depends what dates you choose as your reference points.

      • Texl1649: You mess with AP and he will detail you into the swamp.

        Its known as cherry picking your data as well as alternative facts (deaths lag case load by the way, its how diseases works, ramp up first, people get sick, then they die).

        We are on track to exceed the death tool for the entire US military in WWII.

        Of course that is fake news as well.

        It is interesting which party is engaged in denial, attends packed rallies, removes distancing stickers from seats etc.

        note: Well, the one rally only got 32% (less if you add in the overflow area that had none)

        • This blog is no longer readable, and I’ll stop reading it entirely for several years at least, congrats leftists. I suppose that is a surrender but I don’t care, as the feedback no longer has any impact/intelligent analysis to it, though it was long anti-American.

          Enjoy your socialism/leftist government, Scott and all. It’s obviously turning out great in Seattle, Baltimore, and San Francisco. The aviation industry (as well as others) will continue to shrink in such areas.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juxLC2NR-k4

          https://twitter.com/explore/tabs/covid-19?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1280197111074689024%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftownhall.com%2Ftipsheet%2Fkatiepavlich%2F2020%2F07%2F06%2Fmcenany-highlights-what-headlines-about-new-wuhan-coronavirus-cases-are-missing-n2571957

          I won’t even respond to claims that one side has claimed the virus is a hoax. That’s again a bridge to far in the ‘I watch CNN for news’ nut job spectrum.

          As an American, I find the deaths (and social disintegration) over the past 6 weeks very disturbing, but here (on this blog) I see only latent political hostility/elitism/hatred. It’s pathetic, which is why I’m done. Bye.

          https://townhall.com/columnists/kevinmccullough/2020/07/05/six-weeks-six-cities-600-murders-n2571887

          • “I don’t care, as the feedback no longer has any impact/intelligent analysis to it, though it was long anti-American. ”

            No, texl1649, this site hasn’t been anti-American – but it has been anti-stupidity – and if that hurts you, then it’s your fault. The people here don’t hate Americans, they just despise the type of willful ignorance that you are so adept at displaying.

          • Hello texl1649,

            Regarding: “I won’t even respond to claims that one side has claimed the virus is a hoax. That’s again a bridge to far in the ‘I watch CNN for news’ nut job spectrum.”

            Just in case you will decide to come out of hiding and respond, do you think the video at the link below is fake or edited to give a misleading impression? To be precise, the politician in the video by my understanding isn’t saying that COVID-19 is a hoax, but rather that those saying the response to it in the US is being handled poorly. or that it is an out of control major health threat in the US, are perpetrating a hoax. At the time of the speech in the video (February 2020), there were approximately 15 COVID-19 cases in the US and zero COVID-19 deaths. As of the time I am writing this (on 7-6-20), there have been 3,023,121 COVID-19 cases in the US, and 132,796 COVID-19 deaths. If this was a good and completely under control response of which criticism is a hoax, I would hate to have seen what an ineffective and flawed response would have looked like.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5TZ6fTYrsE

            Am I correct in my understanding that you believe that thinking that a 76% decrease in average deaths per day followed by a 50% increase is not accurately described as “basically flat” makes one:

            a) a leftist, or
            b) unintelligent?

            Once again, can you provide some specific examples of Fauci’s predictions that have been entirely wrong?

          • As a European living in Midwest US for the last 3 years, it really hurts to see how this country is tearing at the seams. People get so fed up with each other and somehow left/liberals and republicans are the worst of the worst and any opinion is suddenly toxic and offensive… America has some serious problems to deal with (like any other country), but because of this environment where people move further away from each other, nothing is happening.. Unfortunately because of this, at the moment America is not becoming great again, but moving forward in a downward spiral. Again it really hurts to see this happening. I truly hope that sanity will prevail quickly on both sides of the political aisle, it really is time that the important issues are recognized by both parties and that sane bipartisan policy is developed. The fact that is currently not happening is frankly not the fault of a single side or party, but by the collective country where it seems that people are forgetting that every single person most likely has the best interest for the United States in mind, but perhaps at worst has a different opinion of how to get there. It will require some difficult discussions, but it’s important that nobody shies away from them. I truly, as a good friend, hope that the US can pull up in time before hitting the ground becomes inevitable

          • The world is indeed flat to those who want to believe it at all cost.

          • Well, that was quite the tirade. As someone who lived for 12 years near Frisco, TX, where texl1649 is, I can attest there’s just no accounting for Texas logic.

          • To Bob from Rob, that was an excellent insight. I’ve had that same impression for a very long time. Maybe it takes an outsider to see it, though.

            America has succeeded because we could always find middle ground for solution, which was valued more than either extreme position. But increasingly the extremes are valued instead. I worry about that too.

            To textl1649, it’s better to engage than to walk away, so I hope you won’t. You aren’t completely wrong in your position, and learning is possible on all sides. But there has to be give and take.

            There is some anti-US sentiment here, as everywhere, but it’s better to offer arguments that highlight your viewpoints and persuade others as best you can.

          • … and the little piggy cried “Waaah waaah waaah” all the way home.

            Funny how facts seem to have a liberal bias.

            All I know is all of us in British Columbia listened to Dr. Bonnie Henry, including the politicians, and have a flattened infection curve, no overflowing ERs, single-digit number of deaths over the past month mostly confined to care homes, and little-to-none community spread. /shrugs.

          • Scott – I likely would have yielded to temptation to respond to Comments from you, Jimmy, AP_Robert, Bob, Ivorycoast, Rob, or Phoenix00 to Texl1649’s Last Will & Testament but, alas, none of these responses carries a ‘Reply’ button – hence this comes with the erroneous appearance of being intended as a reply to texl1649 (which it obviously is not).
            Do you perhaps remove ‘Reply’ options as a means of, er, moderating exchange of views, or am I missing something? I believe I have noticed this before, but only very rarely…

          • @Pundit: The format of Reply buttons is WordPress, and out of my control.

          • @Pundit,

            Once you reach a maximum level of nested responses (four?) there is no longer a reply button, and you need to go back up to the preceding message to reply. Nothing to do with this particular discussion.

          • Scott: I got to drive with bunches of them up on the Alaska Pipeline.

            Gross ignorance both cultural and socially (and I was a social bottom feeder myself)

            Good news is that as time marches on its getting diluted.

          • @Pundit – replies in this blog have always been limited to the third level. Kind of a nice feature to prevent too many branches in the conversation, but also with some limitations. If you respond to Texl’s message and use e.g. the ‘@’+’Name’ convention your response will be clearly directed.

          • Scott, thysi, and Bob – thank you for your helpful replies to my note to Scott about responses to Comments to texl1649 above.

    • “large ‘peaceful protests’ that have coincided with the case increase” – Yes, but this is also during a period when Texas was reopened. Doubtful that the protests were/are the main driver.

      “More cases really doesn’t matter much, it’s hospital utilization.” – By that logic, only death rate matters. Cases matter as a more clear-cut metric for virus spread.

      “Fauci’s models and predictions have been entirely wrong this whole pandemic” – Entirely wrong is a stretch. Just like aircraft design, the models improve as more is learned.

      • Models make predictions based on data.

        As the data changes (good response ala Lock down and behavior ) or bad response (beach parties gone wild, booze, in your face) the data changes and the model then has to be run again as its not longer valid.

        The Model only stays valid if the data stays the same.

        So now we are back into 200,000+ dead because it changed and to the worse.

        Texas and Arizona are closing down and that will change things again, though putting the genie back in the bottle or closing the trunk on Medusa is not easy.

        If you win against the Genie or Medusa, you really don’t want to go a second round.

      • “Cases matter as a more clear-cut metric for virus spread.”

        Wrong. Since May the “Case” definition changed. It is now much more broad.

        The case numbers that are in the “News” include suspected cases which by definition means people that were in contact with a COVID case and contact with person that was in contact with a COVID case so up to 2nd level distance.

        From 15min in the video, but the questions and answers are more pertinent at 18min in the video.

        https://collincountytx.new.swagit.com/videos/62477

        —-
        Likewise the case deaths that are in the news also include the suspected not only the confirmed.

        In USA 42% of deaths (confirmed and suspected) have been in 3 states: New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey.

        No one here talks about that. I wonder why…

        • Fortunately almost nobody uses the Collin County, Texas definition of cases.

    • Funny because here in Minneapolis/Twin cities, the rates are still quite subdued. Or perhaps now no large scale protests happened there? Texas (others) politicized the Chinese flu, pandering to their ‘angry/outraged/etc’ voters and its biting back.

      Developing evidence tells us so far the most contamination happens when one is in a confined space, talking/breathing/sneezing/etc. at each other.

      Little if any in true open space and by surface contacts.

      So, yes, wear a mask indeed.

      ps: I have better appreciation for medical personnel that wears masks for hours during surgery. Hats off! My glasses fog!!

        • Indeed, i have to get there — seems easy enough. Thanks AP!

        • If you don’t have access to or don’t like med-surg masks, my wife has been sewing some homemade masks (she thinks solid colored med-surg masks are too boring), and sews a pipe cleaner into the top seam to help with getting the mask to follow the contour of the nose. Something like a solder wire could also probably work, but might not be comfortable without some padding. The bristles on a pipe cleaner provide some padding around the hard metal core.

          • i am sure i can find such med-surg masks. My wife (good German born/educated Lady) is very handy with her hands and never ceases to amaze me what she can sow/build (or repair at home).

            I can only build/evolve software systems…useless at anything else 🙁

      • What AP_Robert said. Also taping a piece of kleenex to the inside top of the mask helps too.

        /hats off to a fellow masked spectacles user!

  6. @Scott

    There are many instances of the failure, in ‘Western’ societies, of the National Federal State and Health Authorities to express analyse and propose and enforce effective and accepted measures with reason, impressive efficiency, or even adequacy

    1-(in Airports or Airplanes) There are no Federal regulations, either as to masks or ‘social distancing’ or anything else, testing especially, any signs of international co operation, analysis or standards, even down to what exactly is the bug disease

    2-Airlines are not enforcing any measures with any national or international consistency, as to masks/social d

    In at least one notorious instance, BLM, many authorities/leaders ascribe priority to higher authority than any health concern/measure, which justifies & necessitates flouting of all health and the rewriting of many other previously popular and accepted concepts of physical safety/protection of person and property

    Is it surprising that people & passengers are behaving inconsistently and in coherently, given the two instances as above of lack of regulation, and the numerous inconsistencies that some regulations apply sometimes in some places but not in others seen as similar if not identical

    It can be argued that many people have reached a similar conclusion : above and beyond ‘fighting the bug’ there are concerns and aspects of life which take priority

    With regard to airplanes, it seems both Federal Authorities and the Airlines have quickly forgotten the lessons of the Max, self certification does not work neither does safety last : how many people have to die before the planes are grounded and there is…a shift to fast trains ?

    Or would it be difficult to imagine that a motivated group of people, call them PaxLivesMatters, could carefully and reasonably prove that they caught the virus on such a such flight, so hold the industry to ransom ?

    • The only thing I could garner from the post was people are confused.

      Really? We all know what best practices are to minimize the threat, they simply do not care, are in denial or believe in alternative facts.

      I think Scotts dufus comment hits it right on the head.

      • If it was me, I would simply impose it on ALL airlines.

        You don’t enforce, you don’t fly into our country.

        See Emergency Rule 1.

    • Coming from equatorial weather Afrika where vaccines saved me (and many many others) from all sorts of bugs… (ie Pasteur learning from pandemics)… seeing how ‘civilized’ people up north west or simply north argue endlessly that vaccines are ‘bad’ because they read that from some right wing / Soviet facebook propaganda is quite puzzling. They are manipulated to oppose. No matter what. It simply becomes their purpose. Abide by your tribe and stop thinking.

      No one remembers polio?

      Wear your mask. Take whatever vaccine cocktail they’ll ask us to take (after real vetting, not like the Chinese antibody tests we have rushed to accept).

      For many of the same reasons as Scott outlines, my wife will not let me fly.

      • Vaccines are somewhat a victim of their own success. I remember when they were enforced in schools, which was incredibly successful.

        But now you have parents being responsible for vaccination, and they have never seen the conditions that originally motivated development of the vaccines. So if someone on the Internet says they are harmful and cause autism, they start to worry about their kids.

        Ironically, my generation which was fully vaccinated, did not have the spike in autism that is observed now. So for us, the anti-vax argument is obviously incorrect.

        But that frame of reference was lost, and is now different. We knew the risk of disease was real and the vaccine was a blessing. The current generation doesn’t see the disease risk as real, but see the vaccine as posing a risk instead.

        • I agree, we now have anti-vax people who are ironically relying on those who do vaccinate their children to protect their own.

          This works out for them while their child is within that particular herd, but then they travel, and happen to encounter someone with Measles, and then they end up in serious trouble with Measles as an adult.

          Measles is also known to attack the immune system, so while you may survive Measles, for around two years, you’re at increased risk from other diseases.

          Education seems to be a part of the issue here. Lack of understanding of basic science, for instance; understanding the difference between a virus, and a bacteria (why misusing antibiotics to treat a cold or flu isn’t a good idea).

          Being able to make a decision on who to listen to: a) A celebrity with absolutely no knowledge of the subject matter. b) A very, very intelligent person, but again with no real knowledge of the subject. c) An expert with tens of years of experience in the subject.

          A willingness to be open minded, and listen to solid evidence, and make reasoned decisions based on evidence, and not emotion or pre-conceived ideas.

          As evidence, we have people who do seem to allow themselves to be convinced that 5G Cell Towers are ‘activating’ the virus – (ignoring the scientific impossibilities, why are there outbreaks in countries where there are no 5G Cell Towers ?).

          People who believe that a vaccine will implant a Bill Gates microchip to allow us to be controlled (Apologies to BG for even giving this air time).

          ‘Chem trails’ – I don’t even want to start on this.

          I can’t leave out the ‘flat Earth’ guys, who spend $20,000 on a ring laser gyroscope, and state that if they observe a 15 degree movement every hour, it will disprove a ‘flat Earth’, they do the experiment, find that indeed, there is a 15 degree movement every hour, so do they accept their own argument … no, they change their ‘flat Earth’ theory (back to the point above of being open minded, and making evidence based decisions).

          BTW, what is the dome of the ‘firmament’ made of, and who made it ?

          I will happily listen to any ‘flat Earth’ arguments, but you have to convince me scientifically. Explain the seasons, or night, and day to me, and let me explain them with a torch, and a globe in a dark room.

          Perhaps we need to re-think how we teach science to children. Perhaps we need to concentrate on scientific method a great deal more ?

          • Excellent post. I do consulting work for some school districts in the US and I can tell you we don’t really teach science very well. It’s not a priority as it’s not emphasized in national testing.

            The student equipment is junk, textbooks outdated (science progresses at a rapid rate, unlike other subjects) and falling apart, and the administrators resist investment because their own education has lacked the same emphasis.

            If you point that out, be prepared for a lecture about them being educators and you only being an engineer, and how different those are. Not withstanding a huge difference in experience, education & degree level, a career as instructor at university, and having designed undergraduate lab curricula and programs.

            I finally gave up, but I did point out their cowardice in not providing opportunities and critical thinking skills for the kids, whose opportunities & futures are in their hands. But the point was entirely lost. I gave the school many thousands of dollars of equipment and free labor, but the kids never got the benefit.

            It was a hard lesson but I realized how deep the problem goes. The kids had better innate thinking and learning skills than many of the adults, but ultimately the kids are held back, and are made to pay the price for the buffoonery of the adults. Same is true for the anti-vaxxers.

          • I do remember Polio. It was a nightmare. I still have flashbacks to kids in the Iron Ventilators.

            I will volunteer to test a Covd vaccine right now.

            Get me hospital support and take care of my wife if I go and I will volunteer to be a placebo as well.

            I can’t think of a better cause to give your life for.

          • Rob and JakDak, i can’t agree more on all accounts.
            Lack of curiosity and critical thinking is growing.

            Often i compare the opportunities here and those available where i grew up… and i see how some do not even comprehend what they could do and how the system here can help them. I never seem to be amazed.

            Easy to destroy/hard to build. I remember driving back from gaTech home listening to Rush Limbaugh in the afternoon on NPR back in the early nineties… and thinking…when you polarize like that you create tribes… tribes define themselves by affiliation, not by critical thinking. I was thinking…tribes… this is where i come from and this is why the system there does not and will not work. You can’t build only via affiliation.

            What were these people doing? (Limbaugh/Newt G) Aren’t others realizing what is happening and how this affect people? (make then angry, help them not think, just inject poison and revisionism). And it was sticking… i lived in Cobb county/ATL/Gingrich’s district.

            Then Oklahoma happened (alfred p murray building bombing)… and then you could just hear them scurry around… what? someone listened? it’s not us it’s not us…Tribalism is very toxic.

            Obviously, no reference to what’s going on today … lol.

            Wear a mask, think for yourself and your neighbor.

            The net effect of the current non-sense is i cancelled last week our booth participation to MRO Americas in Dallas. With the TX leadership Chinese flu complete mismanagement a) few if any will go there, b) won’t want to endanger our employees

  7. “Cabin air recirculates every 2-4 minutes and the filters are effective in removing viruses.”

    More objective research shows everybit of cabin air is refreshed every minute *on average*. Cabin air is not moving from top to bottom. It is turbulent, high concentrations of y Aerosols are around over multiple seats for at least 30 seconds.

    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02786820902736658

    I think everybody creating / sharing information there is no risk here really, air moves down into HEPA filters before you know, and that seats, armrest and lavatories can be ignored and there no proof, should ask him/herself what they are doing.

    • Keesje, I think the point of Bjorn’s series was that the wearing of masks sharply reduces the distribution of aerosols by the donor. Similarly a mask sharply reduces the intake of aerosols by the recipient. Also that any aerosol that may occur, does not linger, due to the high turnover rate of air circulation, and the HEPA filtering of the small percentage of air that is recirculated.

      The net effect of this is a low risk of transferring a sufficient viral load for infection, from one passenger to another. This continues to be borne out by the lack of any identifiable clusters due to airline travel, and very few clusters for public transport in general.

      I realize air travel volume is still low, but at least domestically, has recovered to about 25% or so. If the risk of infection was high, there should be some evidence of that appearing. We have not seen that yet.

        • Our current up tick was 90% traced to bars, followed by closer packed pubs/eatery type places

      • Rob – “…lack of any identifiable clusters due to airline travel, and very few clusters for public transport in general…” Absent an initial track and trace system already in place on Day 1, how easy is such identification?
        If all we can be tracked/traced in real time (and retro )via our cell phones, why are such systems required? I find it very hard to believe identifiable clusters arising from social contact in, say, European ski resorts all were generated in group environments that did/do not include public-transport situations. Forgive me, I am a bear of little brain…

        • Pundit, it may be true that public transport clusters are more difficult to trace. But with air travel it’s easier as everyone on board is identified, as well as seating positions, and their exposure is known.

          Still there have been none thus far, with precautions in place, but that could easily change, especially without precautions.

          • Rob – thank you; my thinking was/is that once someone has tested positive his/her movements can be back-tracked from their ‘phone and locations/times logged — thereby to ID adjacent parties who may then be traced, along with their subsequent contacts (isn’t that the whole point?). Are not all cell phones routinely tracked (in the same way that, I assume, the State department has files on all citizens…)?

          • Pundit, the Google/Apple COVID cell phone tracking apps rely on Bluetooth, not the phone’s location function. The app logs all advertised Bluetooth addresses that it sees, within a set of rules, and reports them to a central server.

            Then if someone with the app reports they have contracted COVID, the server finds all phones that were in Bluetooth range of that phone, and if those users also have the app, notifies them of their exposure. Also if the users agree, the information is provided to public health agencies.

            This is viewed as less invasive to privacy, as there is no link to location or the person’s identity, beyond their consent in reporting their health status.

            Contact tracing authorities may use that info, but they also take a patient history and enter into a database, then run searches on those locations to find matches. If they find a common location for many patients, that is cluster. They may test everyone in direct contact with the patient as well, and then follow the chain of infection, as you mentioned.

    • Yes, there is not evidence that the recent rise of transmission rate correlates to outdoor protest activity.

      In my state there were large protests, but only a mild uptick in cases as restrictions have been partially lifted. Similarly some states with large increases did not have much protest activity. Outside the US, the ending of restrictions have also seen surges, without any protest activity.

      So there are many other factors in play, and as a general rule, outdoor activities are among the safest.

      The death rate lags the infection rate considerably, so pointing to a steady death rate as a denial of the impact of increased transmission rate, is not really valid. Also a bit perplexing, as this lag is well understood.

      • Must be true as I find myself agreeing with Rob!

        None of it is 100% (but then driving is also not 100% and life itself is 1`00% fatal)

        A good driver can mitigate the risk.

        We can mitigate it with Covd by best practices.

        No, outdoors is not a guarantee but the refresh rate is really good.

      • I don’t see how protest activities could be isolated enough to scientifically measure cause and correlation. As far as I’m concerned, based on my small scientific training in college physics and chemistry labs, the conclusions being drawn are haphazard guesses at best.
        In my opinion, publishing raw numbers of cases per state and deaths per state is a sign of ignorance in numbers. Per capita is the only statistic that counts. Even Worldometer deaths per state is not a per capita measure.
        I’d like to see a per capita deaths per state over time, then possibly one could do some comparisons and actually get a sense of scale.

        • Ted, per capita is done on the Johns Hopkins site, and you can compare the two side by side. I agree the results are useful and revealing.

          As far as the protests, I’m sure that some transmissions occurred in those, but it does not appear that those events are dominating the recent surges. At least, significant numbers of clusters are not being traced back to them.

        • Ted, Worldometer also shows cases, tests and deaths per 1M population (for both countries and states), just scroll all the way to the right. The one metric they don’t publish is test positivity rate, but you can derive it from their stats.

          Regardless of the population, 15%+ test positivity rate is a scary number. (NY and NJ, who took the big hit early, are now in the 1-2% range.)

          • The four most populace states in the US are CA, 39.5M, TX, 29M, FL, 21.5M, and NY, 19.5M.
            Looks like CA at about end of April was at 2 deaths a day per M and is now at 1.7. TX was at 1.3 and is at 1.5. Fl was at 1.7 and is now 2. NY was at 51 and is now 1.3.
            Obviously NY at 51 is the outlier. What is the explanation for that, or why TX and FL haven’t fared far worse than CA do to differing approaches?

          • Deaths lag the transmission rate, so we won’t know for awhile if deaths will also surge as the transmission rate has. Experience suggests they will.

            Deaths may be a better ultimate measure of seriousness, and may be more easily definable since they are all reported, but the lag characteristic means they don’t help much in deciding the needed current actions.

            The rt.live site has a transmission rate model that has proven to be a reasonable approximation. The model adjusts for testing rates and estimates the contagious infections that contribute to further transmission, which are less than the overall positive rate.

            For example it shows Florida rising rapidly while Texas has only a moderate rise. I think that is reflective of reality. The model’s predicted absolute values may not be exact, but the trends seem to be accurate

      • “Yes, there is not evidence that the recent rise of transmission rate correlates to outdoor protest activity. ”

        That it is not what is being said in that article site.

        No evidence?
        https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/

        Look at timeline and tell me when Texas reopened and when BLM protests occurred.
        Texas “reopened” in mid April. Protests were in mid to late May.
        Protests with support from “Health Authorities” and “Really Smart People”.

        —–
        Staying outdoors have been good for all Corona/Influenza type infections.
        Note that i did say stay.

        I did not say protest close to others, shout an huge amount of saliva, and close contac to hundred of other persons etc.

        —-
        The best hospitals at time of Spanish Flu were army campaign type Hospitals. In the open.

        Anyway the virus is not going away and everyone probably will get everyone infected that is not immune , we just need to be sure that the rate of increases is not too big to handle.

        • Alex. a pre-print research paper looked at the impact of the protests across many cities, and found no correlation with COVID-19 increases.

          That’s not to say that some transmission did not occur in the protests, but it seems to indicate that fears of a major public health impact based on protests, were unfounded.

          https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

          On the other hand, there is strong evidence that COVID increases have occurred in states that re-opened early. As of last week, about 50 percent of the new COVID-19 cases nationwide were coming from four states — Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California.

          It’s expected that re-opening would generate an uptick. But it was hoped the increase would be more controlled. Note that almost every state has been affected, not just the ones that reopened early.

          I refer people to the rt.live site, where you can view a history for each state of the effective transmission rate Rt, with the dates of shelter start and stop indicated.

          https://rt.live/

          Note that the four states above are lumped closely together, but they aren’t the highest. The model used yields a higher Rt value for smaller numbers of cases in less populous states, than for larger numbers of cases in more populous states. It tries to compensate for population size so that results between states can be compared.

  8. Here you have nailed down the extra cost trying to open without having controlled Covid. Sensible people will try and stay home all they can if they don’t think they are safe. Imagine getting infected, infecting your mother and causing her death. Secondly, with another wave of economic pain about to wash over us from more lockdown, who wants to spend? Premature openings are going to quadruple the damage, doubling it by doubling the closures and redoubling it with lost confidence.

  9. Guess what Scott, I do totally agree with you, and although a FF, I’am totally against traveling with people and Commercial airlines that are on a suicidal mission with innocent and responsible passengers who do follow the pandemic Prevention Rules. Will jump on one of my friends private jets, if I had to travel, at least until the spread of this virus can be contained and safe vaccines available.

  10. People will get back to flying as soon as everything opens up. Most business travel has been reduced due to companies self impose banned. Leisure travelers have no where to go and some countries are isolating travelers 14 days after traveling. It’s no point traveling right now. From the behavior seen so far once restrictions are lifted People will flock to travel with or without Covid-19 risk.

    • The rack back began before shutdown was imposed.

      Not all but major numbers voted with their presence.

      I saw an interview the other day, if it had not been so sad, it would have been tragic.

      The person said: I have lost a brother to Covd and my wife family lost one too, but I don’t think this is a real issue.

  11. A friend of mine last week flew SMF-LAX-MIA-ACA-MIA-LAX-SMF on WN/AA. He said AA flights were “packed” each way (MIA-LAX on A321 was oversold), no social distancing and practically no one was wearing a mask and MIA was crowded with no one wearing a mask. “Crowded” and “packed” is subjective and relative (except for the “oversold” bit) but IMHO no social distancing, and practically no one wearing a mask is a bit scary.

    I’ve stated multiple times here that until there is a vaccine (or in some way my family and I have anti-bodies, either through exposure, etc.), we don’t plan on flying anytime soon.

    • If precautions are not observed (wearing masks etc) and that becomes the standard flying behavior, then we will likely see COVID clusters begin to emerge from air travel. That will totally change the dynamic if it happens.

      At least you could partially protect yourself by wearing a mask and following good hygiene habits while flying. Or avoid flying as has been suggested here, but that may not be an option for some.

      • Due to a family situation that is critical, one of us then two of us may have to travel.

        At that point we do so, its the same as any other risk. Assess it and travel if we have to, otherwise not.

        If we do travel, then mitigate the risk as much as you can with best practices.

        Otherwise, maintain the isolation at home as best as possible.

        As for protests:
        They are the basis of our democracy. We have people who serve, those people makes that same assessment. We may die, but we believe what we may die for is worth it.
        What is being protested is a long standing issue that people have been killed over and we need to move our country to correct it. Those are ideals worth dying for.

        I grew up with that generation of WWII vets that did just that. I admire and respect it.

      • Sadly the scales of Covd behavior have had a thumb put on them making it political rather than social. We are now working in a environment where bad behaviour becomes the counter.

        Too many will continue to defy based on that. We either make masks and behaviors mandatory or we give up.

        People in any crisis (as a group) tend to behave badly. Just look at those in crash landings that grab their luggage when their lives dependent on a speedy egress.

        they clearly are stupid and being so care less about others.

        Longer term a norm gets established, but you can’t do that until the good of all becomes the norm not the exception.

        • Some have made the calculation that losing 1% is ok, especially given the population at risks. 1/2 of the rest believe that’s politically the right thing to do.

          Dictatorship make such choice for their people. Functioning democracies don’t.

      • I understand some people will have to get on an airplane for whatever reason but I think many, if not most are flying not out of need but leisure.

        This won’t end well.

        • We will get data on it so stay tuned.

          My take is it is going really badly again in too many places already.

    • jacob… – please report later if your friend is tracked/traced/tested as a consequence of any symptomatic cases arising among passengers on any of his flights; perhaps he wishes there was direct Sacramento-Acapulco service?

      • @Pundit,

        My friend told me a few moments ago (07-13-2020) he’s negative. I was glad to hear that but we’re still not flying until a vaccine.

        • jacob… – thanks; perhaps your friend has crossed digits etc in hope that all fellow pax were adjudged likewise?

  12. As far as people’s behavior indoors, I see people in closer proximity in food stores or home improvement stores than in SeaTac. I think airports would be a drop in the bucket by comparison.

    • For a good transfer to take place, you need to be in close proximity to an infect person for 10 minutes.

      Grocery store people passing, lines are spaced.

      At an Airport, in line, unless masked and spaced you are in steady proximity to a person for well over 10 minutes.

  13. Scott – “The problem is not the airplane. It’s the people who fly…” Ha, that reminds of an Arab Air Carriers Organization agm in Jeddah about 20 years ago. As delegates emerged from a cool hotel lobby into the evening’s moisture-laden air alongside the Red Sea, a journalist remarked how easy it was in such locations to forget the outside climate — in this case the humidity. The leader of one of the alphabet airline trade lobbies immediately rejoined: “When I’m in these places, it’s not the humidity that gets to me, it’s the humanity…”

    • You would have to survive the humidity and the tempearue in order to maintain your humanity.

      Having walked into DFW at 95 deg and 95% Humidity off an airplane with failed air conditioning , it came close to dropping me to the ground.

      • Imagine living in a country where in the dry season you have 100F and 100% humidity every day. I did, 20 years.

        We are spoiled now!

        Now imagine what it is to be in India in some of the heat clusters in large cities that go beyond this. Worse than subsaharian afrika. It will be interesting in the years to come. But no global warming of course. All natural.

        Where’s my Tesla?!?

        • Been in Alaska all but 2 years as a baby.

          Any of those places would kill me.

          In WWII they had the Inupiat Scouts down in Louisiana for Training.

          They fell by windrows in the formations, someone finally realized that they were going to die before they admitted any weakness, , they changed who had to be where and when. Tough men.

  14. “Cabin air recirculates every 2-4 minutes and the filters are effective in removing viruses.”

    That may be so, but so long as the source (an infected passenger) is present in the cabin, recycling/scrubbing the air does very little. The infected person will keep releasing viral aerosols into the air with every breath and 2-4 minutes is more than long enough for someone nearby to catch the virus.
    Mask wearing is probably the most effective measure, but in an enclosed space like an airplane cabin, transmission rates will still be too high, particularly on longer flights.

    • You miss the fact that airflow is constant, not a pulse (beating of course is as well).

      Also the release is vastly worse when a sneeze occurs.

      Along with constant its also consistently down.

      Its also mixed with outside air.

    • A Jones, if you are right we should see that reflected in the transmission cluster data as air travel rebuilds. So we will have to watch closely for that, as well as for whether precautions are being observed on the flights. Those two factors are closely related.

    • AJ – Mask wearing is probably the most effective measure — and most so if worn by the infected person…

  15. What’s the situation with regard to temperature screening at US airports?
    In the EU, there’s no centralized policy on this point, so it’s decided on a national, regional, individual-airport or even individual-route basis*. This contrasts strongly with Asia, where temperature screening is more-or-less standard at airports (and in malls, office buildings, etc.).
    I know that temperature screening can produce false positives and also false negatives, but it’s easy and cheap to implement, and it provides an extra layer of vigilance. I really don’t understand why it’s not being universally applied.

    * E.g. flights from the EU into Singapore and China, where the airline has to perform the temperature checks.

    • Temperature (fever) screening is next to useless. Firstly, many do not develop fever att all. Secondly, even if you do you are contagious before fever starts.

      • same as with testing. ( or any other measure )
        desired outcome is to _reduce_ the time an infected person can work as spreader.
        No measures are really “locked Door” secure.
        Any discourse that turns measure effectiveness into a black/white thing is moot.

        • Ah…someone with a brain.
          Thank goodness!

          The purpose of temperature screening is to intercept people with a fever before they enter a given crowd (such as in an airport); once they’re intercepted, a (rapid) test can be done to determine whether or not the fever is caused by CoViD.
          The fact that not all CoViD patients have a fever is irrelevant: the test’s purpose is not to provide certainty, but to pick off some obvious low-hanging fruit. In combination with other measures, it’s a simple and cheap extra trap.
          Also, temperature monitoring at airports is done using infrared cameras, which efficiently monitor streams of approaching people. A much more efficient process than using temperature guns.

          • Hello Bryce,

            Regarding: “The fact that not all CoViD patients have a fever is irrelevant …”

            It is highly relevant if 40 or 50% of infectious patients are missed by temperature screening. If thousands of patients are being screened, and 40 or 50% of infectious patients pass temperature checks, the infectious patients missed by temperature checks will be more than enough to go back to their communities and start pandemic community spread. Isolating only patients who failed temperature checks or were sick on the Princess cruise ships failed to stop COVID-19 spread on these ships, precisely because patients who did not have temperatures and didn’t feel sick were spreading COVID-19. If there are a large number of infectious patients with no detectable symptoms, the only way to stop spread by travelers is mandatory quarantine for all travelers, whether they have symptoms or not.

            See also the excerpt below from the 6-27-20 New York Times article at the link after the excerpt.

            “Researchers in Hong Kong estimated that 44 percent of Covid-19 transmission occurred before symptoms began, an estimate that was in line with a British study that put that number as high as 50 percent.

            The Hong Kong study concluded that people became infectious about two days before their illness emerged, with a peak on their first day of symptoms. By the time patients felt the first headache or scratch in the throat, they might have been spreading the disease for days.

            In Belgium, doctors saw that math in action, as Covid-19 tore through nursing homes, killing nearly 5,000 people.

            “We thought that by monitoring symptoms and asking sick people to stay at home, we would be able to manage the spread,” said Steven Van Gucht, the head of Belgium’s Covid-19 scientific committee. “It came in through people with hardly any symptoms.”

            More than 700 people aboard the Diamond Princess were sickened. Fourteen died. Researchers estimate that most of the infection occurred early on, while seemingly healthy passengers socialized and partied.”

            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic.html

            I suspect that the relatives of the 5,000 nursing home patients killed by COVID-19 in Belgium after temperature screening and having sick people stay home failed to keep infectious but non-symptomatic workers from spreading COVID-19 to their now dead relatives, may not feel that that it is irrelevant that temperature screening failed to detect the infectious workers who spread COVID-19 to their now dead relatives.

          • AP:
            It might save you a lot of effort if you took the trouble to read the second half of a sentence before you pounce on the first half. In that context, you either failed to read, or to understand, the qualifier that occurred immediately after the text segment on which you pounced, i.e.:
            “…the test’s purpose is not to provide certainty, but to pick off some obvious low-hanging fruit. In combination with other measures, it’s a simple and cheap extra trap.”

            Happy reading!

      • In the Netherlands they do not perform temperature tests at the airport because there are too many falls positives (people with fever for different reasons), in addition to reasons listed by others in this thread.

    • Last I saw temp taking was deemed a complete waste.

      Forget the details, likely you are not running a temperature when you are most infections.

      I think its morphed into a “we are doing something” and more a gesture/lip service than anything effective.

      Also, got my temp taken on a visit to a clinic the other day, in order to do so the taker got withing a foot of my face.

      If it was effective it should be done from the side not the front.

      I have seen all to many cases where the appearance is more important than the correct process.

      In the case with Costco when they had Sr. hours, in order to stop the under 60 criminal from penetrating the sanctum, that insisted on seeing ID.

      You just created a multiple risk.
      1. Me to the ID taker
      2. ID taker to all customers
      3. Close to in your and their face to see the ID.

      If you get 80% over 60 who cares if someone 55 is in the store?

      Is the risk you created worth the consequences you face? No? Then don’t do it!

    • Effectivity is very low. But not zero.

      Mostly for population management. “We are doing something”, indeed. A bit like a few of the TSA activities too. But the population is reassured a bit so that may be worth it.

      Test, test, test…trace. Repeat.

      I went the other day to get tested with my wife at a drive through, just because the city and Mayo clinic were offering it… amazing speed, professionalism, and got the results texted.

      How hard is that? Why can’t we do this repeatedly?

      • Because there are not enough test kits and the supplies (swabs) to go with them.

        The Federal Government has simply quit on the Covd leaving it up to states.

        We really don’t need unlimited testing, we need as suspicion, we need contract tracing.

        You can have it and test negative, two days latter go positive.

        And how about people that don’t have cell phones to text?

        • I know this may come as a huge surprise, but there is actually a world outside the US.
          Maybe YOUR federal government has “quit”, but that doesn’t necessarily apply in other countries. There’s noting in the article above that intrinsically limits its applicability to the US.

          Moreover, contact tracing has severe limitations. For example:
          Tracer: Where have you been in the last 10 days?
          Patient: My local Walmart (2x), Costco, Dennys (6x), Post Office (2x)…oh and LAX, for a flight up and down to my sister in Florida.
          Tracer: Eh…

  16. Today in NZ we have 19 Cases. All in isolation. All arrived on (limited) flights of Kiwis returning home. Flying locally no masks. Coming from overseas these are now required. Everyone arriving goes into 2 weeks isolation and is tested on day 3 and day 12. We locked totally down till we had the disease beaten. I hated it! But this 75 year old is both alive and well. I was planning a trip to Europe this year with a week in the USA on the way home. No plans for at least 2 years now.

    • Perfect performance using the remote locale. Well done.

      Its not that the US could be perfect, but if we managed 70% we would be so far ahead of things now.

      Good news is public is not buying Denial, its no longer a River in Egypt.

      We can honor our dead when this is over as part of the price for Freedom.

      • The interesting thing is that after two quarters of serious recession (and despite employment subsidies, vastly increased unemployment), We are looking at going back to serious growth in September.
        We are a well connected country (mostly fibre) so work patterns are changing. We have 20% of our population (1 million) living off shore. Now the issue is many of them want to come home. Interesting times ahead.
        England is also an Island.. For ALL of us secure borders were and are the issue. Yep, we are less tolerant of people who argue against the common good.

        • HarryM – according to my world atlas ‘England is also an Island’ (not), but I daresay the Scots and Welsh nationalists there wish it were so. Sorry, but ’tis a misunderstanding often also voiced among New Worlders…

    • HarryM – ‘We locked totally down till we had the disease beaten.’ Aye, there’s the rub; I’m guessing there wasn’t a referendum first…
      For sure, you have a smaller population but neither that nor your (relative) remoteness outweigh the validity of lockdown, but can you imagine the reaction were even there a voiced temptation to suggest such in the U.S.? It’s called freedom of the individual, I believe.

    • I won the first lottery in my life. $11,000 in travel vouchers. Isn’t it ironic.

  17. Most people have not yet accepted that we will reach worldwide herd immunity (60% to 70% infection rate) before a safe and effective vaccine is available in the large numbers required.

    The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19 come out of it without significant problems.

    Death rates are in the same ballpark as a bad influenza. It’s not Ebola, it’s not the Spanish Flu.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

    “Until recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated the annual mortality burden of influenza to be 250 000 to 500 000 all-cause deaths globally; however, a 2017 study indicated a substantially higher mortality burden, at 290 000-650 000 influenza-associated deaths from respiratory causes alone, and a 2019 study estimated 99 000-200 000 deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly caused by influenza.”

    • Too pessimistic. We will get 60-80% effective vaccines within 6-24 months. Add a bit for mass production, sure. Way before the herd gets to 70% in many (most?) places.

      These vaccines will be iterated upon constantly.
      Science is far more advanced today. Massive medical research is going on. Even the soviets are doing it. Imagine…

      Very good vaccines are in general at least 90-95% effective. It takes a while to get there. But we will.

      The world health system will be a lot better prepared too for the next wild animal to human transmission coming from China… since we have to abide to political correctness and can’t tell anyone they should not aggregate/gut/chop/keep.the.meat.in.the.same.stalls so many wild animals from different species (&habitats) in one place. Why does it seems to recur over there? You see pictures of markets with wild animals from many species caged on top of each other. Even in nature, they don’t meet naturally and if they did, not in such density…deh. Once in a while, laws of numbers make it such that something ‘sticks’ that should not.

      In afrika, we stayed away from any wild life blood at all, all cost. Instinct. Ok, ok, fish from running water was fine (not stagnant). Otherwise, no animal protein for us. Plenty of root based carbs though.

      Wear a mask.

      • The infection rate may already 30% in countries such as Sweden, Germany and US. That is about 50% of the herd level. The herd level is a theoretical 60% for a transmission rate of 2.5. News media runs with narratives and more likely to double down than correct information. They need a new crisis to drop the old narrative and move to a new narrative. I agree 100% about your statements regarding treatment and caging of wild animals.

    • 50 /100 times more lethal than standard influenza. Only a few per cent have been infected so far. There was hope from some statisticians that far more people might have immunity than was believed , but unfortunately they have largely been proved wrong by recent spikes and secondary waves.

    • @BernardP

      Agreed

      What is the point of, as in say NZ or Aus, of reducing infections and death quickly enough to zero

      When quarantine will have to be imposed on all entry and exit- this brings additional costs, and not only in health

      Plus – it seemingly does not avoid a ‘second wave’ or flare ups’ as State of Victoria lockdown has shown

      Remember how all the experts laughed at the notion of herd immunity? and how, say, Sweden was treated as a country of morons for taking it as the only solution

      • GW:

        You have two areas of error, relevance and Herd Immunity and what actually happened in Sweden.

        First you need to understand Heard Immunity is not a flip out phrase that is a magical unicorn for a solution.

        Herd immunity via use of disease is the Black Plague where 75% die. It destroys population and cultures and countries.

        Herd Immunity is intended to be achieved via the use of vaccine to an immune population level that stops it from spreading via a Disease Vector.

        Certain ignorant groups throw it out as an excuse not to comply with regulations. Those same ignorant people lived to do so by the fact they were herd immuned from Polio, Diphtheria, Typhus and the like by vaccine not the wonder of their Unicorn immune system.

        Sweden: Their gamble was they had a cohesive cultural population that would comply with the regulations enough that it would have low level impact.
        It was not true herd immunity, regulation would stay in affect and a homogeneous and close knit society would maintain it until a vaccine came along.
        Its success if you follow it is a coin flip, to a degree it worked in lower risk type, its still not close to herd levels needed.

        So, as we have seen in other locale, it jumped into and went like wildfire through the elderly in various types of assisted living and nursing homes.

        Sucks if you are an older person.

        Last I saw their levels were 5-10%, that is not herd, anyone at risk will get it and they will spread it to others in Europe when they travel, or a traveler to Sweden will get it and take it back.

        That too sucks.

      • Hello Gerrard,

        Regarding Sweden and herd immunity or lack thereof.

        See below for a sample of COVID-19 deaths per million population for Sweden, two nearby Scandinavian countries, and the US, according to Worldometer, and some calculations based on this sample.

        DPMP = Deaths Per Million Population due to COVID-19.

        0n 4-22-20
        Sweden: DPMP =175
        US: DPMP = 137
        Switzerland: DPMP = 171
        Norway: DPMP = 33.9

        0n 6-24-20
        Sweden: DPMP =511
        US: DPMP = 374
        Switzerland: DPMP = 226
        Norway: DPMP = 46

        0n 7-1-20
        Sweden: DPMP =528
        US: DPMP = 394
        Switzerland: DPMP = 227
        Norway: DPMP = 46

        DPMP on 7-1-20 / DPMP on 4-22-20
        Sweden: 528/175 = 3.017
        US: 394/137 = 2.876
        Switzerland: 227/171 = 1.327
        Norway: 46/33.9 = 1.357

        DPMP on 7-1-20 / DPMP on 6-24-20
        Sweden: 528/511 = 1.033, i.e. up 3.3% in seven days.
        US: 394/374 = 1.053, i.e. up 5.3% in seven days.
        Switzerland: 227/226 = 1.0044, i.e. up 0.44% in seven days.
        Norway: 46/46 = 1.00, i.e. up 0.0% in seven days.

        DPMP on 7-1-20 relative to Sweden
        Sweden: 528/528 =1.00
        US: 528/394 = 1.34, DPMP is 34% higher in Sweden than in the US.
        Switzerland: 528/227 = 2.33, DPMP is higher by a factor of 2.33 in Sweden.
        Norway: 528/46 = 11.48, DPMP is higher by a factor of 11.48 in Sweden.
        *

        Seven day increase in DPMP 6-24-20 to 7-1-20 relative to Sweden
        Sweden: 3.3/3.3 = 1.0
        US: 3.3/5.3 = 0.623, i.e. US % increase was higher by a factor of 1/.6223 = 1.61.
        Switzerland: 3.3/1.0044 = 3.29, i.e. Sweden’s percent increase was higher by a factor of 3.29 than Switzerland’s.
        Norway: 0% increase from 6-24-20 to 7-1-20, you can’t divide by zero.
        *

        Sweden compared to nearby Scandinavian Countries.
        The increase in DPMP in Sweden from 4-22-20 to 7-1-20 was greater by a factor of 2.27 (i.e. 3.017/1.327) than that in Switzerland, and by a factor of 2.22 (i.e 3.017/1.357) than that in Norway. DPMP on 7-1-20 in Sweden was greater than in Switzerland by a factor of 2.33 and greater than in Norway by a factor of 11.48.

        Based on these statistics, I would regard Sweden’s approach as being at high risk to fail in providing a net saving of lives as compared to that in Switzerland and Norway by the time a vaccine is available.
        *

        Sweden compared to US.
        The increase in DPMP in Sweden from 4-22-20 to 7-1-20 was greater by a factor of 1.049 0r 4.9% (i.e. 3.017/2.876) than that in the US, and DPMP on 7-1-20 was greater than in Sweden than in the US by a factor of 1.34.

        Based on these statistics, I would say that it is a close call whether Sweden’s approach will fail in providing a net saving of lives as compared to the disorganized US response by the time a vaccine is available.

        • @APRobert

          ‘I would say that it is a close call whether Sweden’s approach will fail in providing a net saving of lives as compared to the disorganized US response by the time a vaccine is available’

          Maybe: yet it will certainly have been more consensual, based on popular willing acceptance, and thus more pleasant and coherent for the nation as a whole to live through in Sweden than in the US

          My main point was not this, but the NZ and Aus paradox

          Round One to the NZ/AUS

          But it looks like rounds two through to the final bell will neither be so easy or so pleasant – the costs of cut off from the world, and internal flare ups such as the one currently closing off Victoria

          In general it must be realised that this and the next few bugs have characteristics similar to flu – will mutate and return yearly, probably

          Getting used to it first time round saves a lot of painful adjustments, backpedalling, over certain experts elaborating plans on in definitive knowledge or information

          This is one example of inefficiency and stupidity resulting in a superior long term result than isolated short term success

    • Hello Bernard,

      Regarding: “Death rates are in the same ballpark as a bad influenza. It’s not Ebola, it’s not the Spanish Flu.”

      See the excerpts below from the New York Times article at the link after the excerpts. In these excerpts a death rate of 1.5x means that the death rate in the indicated month was greater by a factor of 1.5 than the average monthly death rate. Note that the excess death rate of 5.83x due to COVID-19 in New York City in April 2020 exceeded the excess death rate of 3.97x due to Spanish flu in New York City at the peak of the Spanish Flu pandemic in the US in October 2018.

      “Only the worst disasters completely upend normal patterns of death, overshadowing, if only briefly, everyday causes like cancer, heart disease and car accidents. Here’s how the devastation brought by the pandemic in 25 cities and regions compares with historical events.”

      1.05x Flu season in New York City, Jan. 2011
      1.15x HIV/AIDS crisis in New York City, Sept. 1995
      1.25x Flu season in Seattle, Jan. 2017
      1.29x Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, Sept. – Oct. 2017
      1.31x Chicago heat wave, July 1995
      1.61x September 11th in New York City, Sept. 2001
      1.75x COVID-19 in Denver, Colorado March 2020
      1.99x 1957 flu in Santiago, Chile, Aug. 1957
      2.00x Paris heat wave, Aug. 2003
      2.18x COVID-19 in Stockholm, Sweden April 2020
      2.42x Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, Aug. 2005
      2.61x COVID-19 in Paris, France April 2020
      3.61x Spanish flu in Boston, Oct. 1918
      3.97x Spanish flu in New York City, Oct. 1918
      4.57x COVID-19 in Madrid, Spain march/April 2020 4.57x
      5.83x COVID-19 in New York City April 2020
      6.67x COVID-19 in Bergamo, Italy April 2020
      6.85x Earthquake and tsunami in Miyagi, Japan, Mar. 2011
      7.27x Spanish flu in Philadelphia, Oct. 1918

      https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html

    • Hello Bernard,

      Regarding flu vs. COVID-19 deaths, as of 7:49 AM US Mountain Time on 7-7-20 Worldometer is reporting/estimating 251,476 flu deaths and 541,748 COVID-19 deaths worldwide so far in 2020. According to this data, COVID-19 deaths so far in 2020 have exceeded flu deaths so far in 2020 by a factor of 541,748 / 251,476 = 2.15. While new flu cases have slowed in the Northern Hemisphere during the current Northern Hemisphere summer, new COVID-19 cases continue to set new daily records in the US. I hope that I am wrong in my suspicion that the coming Fall and Winter are going to be really ugly for COVID-19 in the US. Spanish Flu death rates peaked in the US in Fall 2018, the Fall AFTER the Spanish Flu pandemic arrived in the US.

      • the Fall AFTER the Spanish Flu pandemic arrived in the US.

        Spanish Flu started in Kansas AFAIK ?
        US troops brought it to Europe where it could fester under
        perfect “end of war” conditions. .. to be reimported fully grown? 🙂

        We may see a similar story retelling with CoVid19:
        frozen, stored samples from waste water processing plants in various countries show relevant RNA much earlier than its “official” (Trump, forced) name giving outbreak in China.

        • Uwe, the Kansas theory is outdated and was postulated by an historian and author. They were following case histories and the earliest identified cases were in Kansas, with exposure from soldiers returning from the front in WWI.

          Virologists studying the issue in recent years concluded it developed at the front, and was around for years before the extremely virulent strain appeared, which was mislabeled Spanish flu.

          Part of the genetic structure may have been from North America, that is very possible given the large movements of troops and evolution of the virus.

          The second peak in fall of 2018 corresponded with the end of the war and massive movements of troops returning home, all over the world.

          As for COVID, it’s now believed that the pangolin was the intermediate host, based on genetic evidence, so it originated in China.

          The wastewater testing showed strong positives beginning in January 2020. There was one hit on one of the three tested genes in March 2019. That is being reported as an anomalous outlier and possibly false result.

        • “”frozen, stored samples from waste water processing plants in various countries show relevant RNA much earlier””

          Could it be rats in the waste water?

  18. It’s also been appropriately noted that the decision as to whether or not to wear a mask is not so much a political statement as an IQ test.

  19. If this is like a cold, do you get immunity for a cold? Is there a vaccine for a cold? Can you get Carona again and again in the same year? Call me a skeptic, but I think man’s confidence of his dominance over nature and perceived ability to fully understand this is highly overrated.

  20. Taiwan has 25 million people, Covid 7 deaths and around 437 cases.
    They were one of the first countries to close their international borders, no lockdown, but masks mandatory in public!
    Masks are subsidised by the govt and readily available, eg 711 convenience stores.
    So I would suggest that masks in public make a difference, and I for one would prefer to wear a mask, than be locked down.

    • While that is true, also valid is Taiwan saw the SARs thing and put a whole system in place to deal with it.

      It was not just masks, it was questionnaire, testing, quarantine and follow up as well as stopping flights from China (at the time).

      Its a system that needs to be in place and works, no single aspect.

    • Yes masks make all the difference. Another country where masks are mandatory is Vietnam. They also closed their borders early in January even though it meant tourism would take a hit and to this date Vietnam has had ZERO covid deaths! This in a country of 100 Million that shares a border with China!

      The most critical case in Vietnam was a British expat pilot for Vietnam Airlines. He has been kept alive for months on a heart lung bypass machine (Vietnam is determined to keep him alive!) He is free of covid but in dire condition and will probably need a heart lung transplant if he is going to survive.

      Not only does Vietnam have ZERO covid deaths so far but they only had to shut-down their economy for three weeks. If American’s had been disciplined about wearing masks back in January they could have avoided many deaths and its economy would be open without the economic devastation. The media completely ignores the success of Vietnam which is a shame because if American’s knew how other countries managed this pandemic they could be encouraged to wear masks.

      As for air travel Vietnam has limited international flights and passengers who do arrive are tested for covid while on the tarmac! Those who test negative are sent to a facility to quarantine for 14 days (for those with money they can go to resorts in Danang for 14 days). Those who test positive are whisked away to a special hospital to recover. They don’t fool around in Vietnam!

  21. @Scott
    You have thrown the cat among the pigeons with this post

    The state of the commentariat- seldom has there been such lack of consensus and such in consistency in what is usually a fairly tidy and well behaved group of aviation minded white collar pros or expros

    With the Max there were disagreements, but these generally remained technical, included discussions of oversight and regulation, even politics, and the parameters of the discussions were seldom breached

    With this post – no concept of parameters : the bug is new, has frightened, there is no existing framework, no path to one agreed, no institutional political social consensus, and no demands/suggestions as to how one may be arrived at, even within the narrow world of airtravel

    Instead, general contempt often for those who dislike masks

    All-very nearly- that is expressed is advice/opinion for personal individual action – be frightened take care of safety, wear a mask, wait for a vaccine

    – as if all to do with this bug failed to provoke rational response

    It is remarkable there is no discussion of regulation or enforcement or wider consensual procedures, as there were with the Max or indeed any other aspect of airtravel

    What is clear about travel, especially airtravel, is the paramount importance of regulatory structures and close surveillance of operators and operations, with very apparent concern for safety

    This was almost entirely lacking in the comments on your post

    Many may find some justification in this personal opinion approach by comparison with the BLM affair, outdoors is fine un regulated (as far as this bug) and people can have their opinions – some aspects of life are better off un regulated perhaps, but surely not airtravel, and not safety in aitravel ?

    Personal opinions as to safety in airtravel should count for little, as long as the regulations and procedures have been reasonably arrived at, with respect for an overall consensus, and are correctly enforced

    • The pressure of the aviation and aerospace world to go back to business is enormous. Hundreds of thousands of jobs, ten of billions on the line. No authority dares to suggest what normal practice: if you don’t know: take no risk.

      Precautiously pull the engine, deny a passenger boarding, go-around, pull / replace the unit, test before RTS, refresher courses, land at the closest airport, check double check, hit the brakes <V1.

      Now, it's left over to the airlines, who are in survival mode and the passenger, at their own risk.

      Agree, it's weakness. Has to do also with different stages of the pandemic globally.

      • It should not as Globally this is how its spreads, via airlines even if the infection is not ON an airline.

        Ergo, best practices should be mandatory globally and enforced with no fly rules for airlines that do not comply and passengers not allowed to board or get kicked off if they do not comply or get on board and violate.

        A clear fact is their in their pique, the Admin stopped China traffic, worked. Left European traffic alone which allowed Covd to hit the East Coast.

        • Actually the Chinese had already shut down travel to/from Wuhan province. Trump extended that to all of China, but only for non-US nationals. US citizens continued to travel freely. That was the source of the criticism.

          We now know that COVID was circulating in the US during January, and in Europe during December. Early cases were not recognized. But the international transmission occurred concurrently with the outbreak in China. That’s one of the lessons hopefully learned.

      • @keesje
        Is not ‘commercial pressure’ often indicated as the root cause of BA’s corner cutting certification scamming FAA browbeating with the Max?

        At the urgent behest of airlines, of course -who’s responsibility in the Max remains un discussed

        So- the Same with the virus? Are the people, the passengers, the aviation community, the administrations, the governments, the Congresses really so stupid so ignorant so lazy as to replicate the Max failure before the Max is even back in the sky?

  22. Another reason why I wont’ be flying anytime soon (people are simply too ignorant/dumb) to wear a mask.

    “When asked to rank the top three measures that would make them feel safer, 37% cited COVID-19 screening at departure airports, 34% agreed with mandatory wearing of facemasks and 33% noted social distancing measures on aircraft.”

    https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-07-07-01/

    • The IATA survey results are fairly consistent across the board. This was a ranking survey so passengers were asked to specify their personal top three. Passengers have willingness toward:

      Undergoing temperature checks (43%)
      Wearing a mask during travel (42%)
      Checking-in online (40%)
      Taking a COVID-19 test prior to travel (39%)
      Sanitizing their seating area (38%).

      Obviously many would have selected multiple of these as their top three. My guess is that a major fraction of those not represented here, would choose not to fly until these measures are not required. Another smaller fraction believe these measures are not necessary.

      It comes down to consistent leadership. messaging, and worldwide observation of precautions. Most people are not going to read research papers and develop their own understanding.

      In the US at least, the message has been wholly inconsistent. We have a leader who undermines his own experts, right in front of them, in a televised press conference, and continues to flout their recommendations. That is certain to sow distrust and create an ineffective response, as we’ve seen.

      • Rob: While I don’t think what people agree with is that relevant, we know what helps and just make it mandatory. People will go along with it (authority and the details supporting it)

        2nd to the last paragraph is us to a T. We are going to have two family members fly but its a serious crisis that only that solves. Not good but life is not good all the time.

        The last is absolutely spot on. Insane is not too strong a word for the administration response.

        • TW, I agree about enforcement. As much as it’s resented, it’s necessary at times. As long as it goes away when no longer necessary, it should be acceptable.

          I’m sorry that you have a crisis in your family that forces members to fly. Hope it is resolved as well as is possible for you.

  23. Protests not linked to COVID Spread
    Interesting article citing study showing case growth is not tied to Protests. Base data for this conclusion is contact tracing and cell phone location data. It’s 7 days old now so new data may have changed this conclusion, but I haven’t seen any new research to the contrary. Would be interested if anyone knows of any.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/01/research-determines-protests-did-not-cause-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/#346a1de87dac

      • No Alex, lockdowns were to help people avoid indoor environments and activities that would foster the spread of the virus, so as to avoid overloading the hospital system. In that sense they were successful.

        DataDriven is pointing out research that shows that the outdoor protest activities did not have the same risks.

  24. I’ve done four round trips across the country since May and every.single.person on the plane each time wore a mask! I didn’t see a single person not wearing it!wheres the evidence people aren’t?

    • Hello Adrianne,

      What airline or airlines were you flying? What cities? You are reporting what you saw, others are reporting what they saw. I have seen that compliance with mask policies on the ground, as well as what the policies are, vary by region, and even by business within a single city, all the way from we don’t care to put on a mask or leave and don’t come back. Perhaps the same is true for airports and airlines?

    • Adrianne,

      A very relevant question is exactly how the masks were worn.
      – Did everyone have mouth AND NOSE properly covered?
      – Did everyone leave the mask on AT ALL TIMES, or was it only a cursory show for boarding purposes?

      A lot of (if not most) people seem to have some sort of revulsion to wearing masks, so a lot seem to take any short cut that they think they’ll be able to get away with…

  25. “California, a Blue state, was the first to implement Stay at Home restrictions. Cases declined. Then Memorial Day arrived and the beaches filled without safe practices. Gov. Gavin Newsom is cracking down again after coronavirus cases spiked sharply.”

    Nice auto-censorship there for all to see.

    All of this is irrelevant, the virus is not going away.

    • @AlexS
      Exactly – the pain is self inflicted –

      The angels on a needle arguing about spread rates death rates this country that country let us pray for a vaccine is all a distraction

      This bug is like the flu

  26. Btw from the New York Times memory of 1996

    https://www.nytimes.com/1996/09/27/us/new-flu-strain-is-out.html

    “A much more dangerous strain of the flu virus than those seen last year will be circulating this flu season, Federal health officials said today.

    The Type A-Wuhan virus, which can lead to deadly complications in the elderly, is the most dangerous of three viruses expected around the nation. The others are Type A-Texas and Type B, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said today.

    The current flu vaccine counteracts all three.

    How bad the flu season will be is hard to predict, said Nancy Arden of the National Center for Infectious Diseases at the centers. But Ms. Arden warned, ”The more viruses like Wuhan, the more people die.”

    • I remember Barnett. He posted a statistical analysis of the FAA’s report of 15 possible accidents if no action were taken on the MAX. His analysis limited the sample size to the hours that the MAX flew, which hugely magnified the risk but was not a statistically valid assumption.

      He made a lot of noise and was widely quoted, but in the end the FAA analysis stood up. Peter Lemme had identified the data set used by FAA and Boeing, and the method was confirmed by other regulators as the accepted model. It was also included in the Lion Air accident report.

      I’ve read Barnett’s paper and the Lancet paper by Derek Chu that Barnett uses to assign risk. Chu’s paper references the 2003 flight transmission of the original SARS, as the only in-flight data. It’s common to find that as the sole source of almost all estimates, as there is still no other data available But that flight was in routine conditions with no precautions and no awareness of illness. We have not yet seen anything like that with COVID.

      Further, Barnett selects the maximum risk of 13% transmission out of Chu’s range of estimates, at the upper edge of the 95% confidence interval for the worst case of 50% risk of unprotected baseline transmission.

      But Chu’s study also shows that for the intermediate case of 10% baseline transmission, the transmission risk is around 2% at the upper edge and more typically well under 1%. That is more consistent with what Bjorn gave us from his research.

      Barnett claims that the 13% number is too low because in a private conversation, Chu told him masks were worn in some studies. But those tended to be health care situations, which make up the majority of Chu’s source data. Risks associated with health care of COVID patients will obviously be higher than a passenger aircraft.

      Barnett goes on to conclude that the risk of contracting COVID is 1 in 7700 with middle seat empty and 1 in 4300 with a full cabin. He estimates an average of 90 cases of aircraft COVID transmission per day in July 2020.

      He then estimates the risk of death from COVID contracted in an aircraft as 1 in 540,000 with full cabin, and 1 in 770,000 with empty middle seat. This amounts to about 1 death per day in July 2020. Then he contrasts this unfavorably with the death risk in aircraft accidents of 1 in 34 million.

      My take on all of this is that Barnett significantly over-estimates the risk, as he also did with the MAX. His paper’s agenda is to refute the airline hypothesis that even the middle seat empty does not meet social distancing requirements. But Chu’s study shows that the risk with distance is flattened with precautions, which supports the airline position.

      I do think this points up the need for a national policy, to make sure precautions are followed. The risk with distance is not flattened without precautions. So the true result depends more on that than on arguments over statistics, or empty middle seats.

      • @Rob – In concentrating on the details, which is fun I grant you, you miss the picture of the overall situation

        One can argue until the cargoes come home about possible aerosols and droplets & possible transmission rates in airplanes – at least we can start to do so once quite a lot more is known about this bug

        As we do not now know much, and as priority is to safety, it is necessary to take all hitherto studies responsibly, and leave a wide margin for safety

        But even that’s not the point-The point is that Neither FAA (implicitly) nor IATA show themselves swayed by anything other than commercial considerations

        However this fact not obviate the need for regulation, even if details of this regulation may be argued about

        You will better be able to argue within such a framework, as focus is acquired and action and amendment possible: only within the formation or operation of a consensus does argument gain validity

        Guidelines do not cut it

        Regulation is not dismissed, as currently they pretend, and as they pretended with the Max, by the assertion that commercial considerations precede

        Why be like BA, cut corners, force FAA (now IATA too!) to cut corners, even to stand down, and then have a Max?

        Unlike the Max this bug is going to keep on coming, will mutate get bigger smaller and more aggressive, has cousins waiting in the wings (actually now I think about it that’s more or less how the Max was produced)

  27. https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-05-05-01/

    Please add IATA cravenly commercial assessment of bug risk

    Risk to airline margins is openly weighed against risk to passenger safety, even while IATA admit they know little about the bug and how it works they know it will cost money

    It is like a report from The Babylon Bee – airlines are fighting for their survival, passengers are too! Who will win?

    • Gerrard, casting the issue as the welfare of airlines vs the welfare of passengers is simplistic at best. It serves your agenda but accomplishes little else.

      Airlines exist to serve the needs of passengers. No passengers, no airlines. In doing that, they hope to make a profit and to pay their employees. Real injury has occurred to those people and their families. As of yet, there is no evidence of injury being done to passengers.

      Passengers’ need to travel by air has not gone away. Injuries are also done to them if they cannot. So what we want to do, is find ways to minimize the injury to all parties, recognizing that airline travel cannot simply cease to exist. It needs to adapt and we have some ways to do that. Airlines depend on passengers and passengers depend on airlines. It’s a mutual thing and has to be viewed as a mutual solution, and a mutual benefit.

  28. @Rob

    The mention of the Babylon Bee should have clued you this was a joke

    But your close amalgamation between the interests of pax and airlines is a mistake – airlines exist to make money, first and foremost, otherwise they would cease to be, as currently many will

    Pax have no ‘need’ to travel by air, this is another – they may like to travel quickly and cheaply, they may even like free, but not inevitably, and not inevitably by air

    When a bug hits the business plans of the airlines take a hit, and allow others to think what might be better safer more efficient and more modern way of travel

    The unquestioning mantra of the current low cost sardine can in the face of such a major disruption only signifies that it has reached it’s useby date

    Look beyond the US to see other travel infrastructure developments

    • Gerrard, this is nonsense. How could any business exist without customers? Nobody is forced to fly, so passengers make a voluntary choice to do so. That has always been true and remains true under COVID. Anyone who doesn’t want to fly, doesn’t have to fly.

      If you disagree with air travel, then by all means don’t fly. That’s a simple and easy solution. But please don’t try to make that decision for everyone else.

      That’s what the flight shaming people do, under the misguided notion that they are saving the environment. The goal is not to stop flying yourself, which anyone can do, but stop others as well. Your carbon footprint is much more related to other forms of travel, heating your home, powering your workplace, and creating the products you purchase, than it is to flight.

      DOE studies have shown that only electric rail is more efficient than airline travel, on an energy per passenger-mile basis, when typical load factors are considered. So it makes sense to travel by electric rail when that option exists. But I suspect most people fly over longer distances, where that option doesn’t exist.

      • @Rob

        You should be very careful when using the word nonsense – usually such slack language is un useful in discussions, may be taken to be provocative, or merely that you do not grasp the point

        If you do not understand how companies businesses and their clients certainly are linked in transaction from which both may seek to benefit, but by no means share common responsibility role or purpose, consider the point/need of a contract

        Or look at the way in which the Max was made, or made to fail, in order to discover how different the client or end user is from the fabricant company

        Your arguments are in consistent : First you say people ‘need ‘ to fly then you say it is voluntary

        My suggestions are that regulation is needed : nowhere do you address this issue

        Read my posts , please : I disagree with airtravel operated with lack of regulatory authority and surveillance together with a wider consensus and context, oversight by Congress or Elected representation

        I do not show disagreement with airtravel per se

        Although I do suggest it may be that newer technologies have more to offer, especially, and I know you’ll appreciate this, more safety

        • Contracts are voluntary. Passenger choice to fly is voluntary. Passenger choice of airline is voluntary, as Josh made clear below. He is exercising his power of choice, in response to a need that he has. As we all do. Nothing at all inconsistent about the concepts of need and voluntary choice.

          I have referenced the benefit of precautions several times here. I will take precautions when I fly. I cannot hope to make that choice for others, but I support all efforts to persuade them to protect themselves and others.

          Like all businesses, airlines are responsive to the choices of customers. Not enforcing policy is a choice based on expected customer reaction, as is enforcing policy. If customers choose an enforcing airline, others will follow. If they don’t, then the lack of enforcement will continue.

          The problem is when you insist the lack of enforcement is only due to the airline saving a buck, and not caring about passengers. That is where the nonsense comes in. In Vincent’s article about his flight experience, it’s clear that both passenger behavior and airline policy can be improved. But those are related as well.

          Ultimately the driver will be whether there are COVID clusters traced to flight. If so, people will back away from flying and policy enforcement will become critical. If they don’t, then the policies will become less important over time.

          However, these two things are also related. Policies not being enforced will make clusters more likely. So we will see how things evolve, but these are the guiding principles. Not profit motive or disregard for passenger safety.

  29. Shall we get back on track?

    Here’s my take on this topic:

    During the pandemic, I will always fly (have flown) with airlines that have a MASK AND SANITATION POLICY and ENFORCE it.

    Policies are useless if not enforced. If a passenger refuses to wear a mask, they better have a medical reason (in writing). Any other reason is hogwash. Surprisingly, many airlines either do not enforce their policies or simply do not care. They are afraid of legal consequences, bad publicity, or further loss of revenue.

    Here’s my summary for USA’s largest airlines:

    American Airlines: Mask policy in place, not enforced. (FAIL)
    https://www.aa.com/i18n/travel-info/travel-with-confidence.jsp

    Delta: Mask policy in place, enforced. (PASS)
    https://www.delta.com/us/en/travel-update-center/coronavirus-travel-faqs

    Southwest Airlines: Mask policy in place, not enforced. (FAIL)
    https://www.southwest.com/promise/

    United Airlines: Mask policy in place, not enforced. (FAIL)
    https://www.united.com/ual/en/us/fly/travel/united-cleanplus.html

    Useful Tip: If you plan or need to fly, do not assume airlines will have a mask available to hand out at all times. Several airlines either don’t offer masks or are out of stock. Bring you own. Bring spares.

    Bottom line: Enjoy life. Yes, it is safe to fly as long as preventative measures, good policies, and effective enforcement are in place. Happy flying!

    • What form does the Delta enforcement take?
      Are cabin personnel constantly patrolling the aisle(s) to check for rogue behavior? Or is there merely a policy of intervening if rogue behavior is casually noticed?

      The Australian quarantine-on-arrival policy was also strictly “enforced” — at least on paper. We now know that, in reality, enforcement staff in Melbourne had a very casual approach to their job, and were taking all sorts of shortcuts, and this was a significant factor in the recent resurgence of the virus in the city.

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