Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aeronautical greats
By Bjorn Fehrm
September02, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: One of our aeronautical greats, Joe Sutter, left us this week. He’s one of the characters in aeronautics that I admire for his capability to find what is the right thing to do, take the tough decision and fight it through.
Figure 1. Early concepts for Boeing 747. Source: Goggle images.
Sutter was the chief engineer for the Boeing 747 project that found that the original idea of stacking two 707s on top of each other, Figure 1, was wrong and instead took the long route to explain what was the right way to go, dual aisle and 10 abreast. Read more
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 01, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 1, we concluded that the existing Il-96 fuselage cross section would be suitable for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body. This means that a lot of experience and existing designs for fuselage sections can be re-used.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
Most importantly, it means that mock-ups and cabin sections can be made early in the project to start work on new and better cabin equipment. This is an area where the partners really lag their western competitors.
We will now look at what aircraft capacities can be conceived with the existing Il-96-300 and -400 fuselages and what changes will be necessary to achieve the targeted sizes that Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) have communicated.
Summary:
- The IL-96 fuselage can be re-used for a Russian-Chinese wide-body.
- The existing IL96-300 cabin is on the small side whereas the Il-96-400 cabin is a bit larger than needed.
- The project will likely choose an intermediate size fuselage to reach the targeted 250 to 280 passenger capacity.
Weekly analyst report: Boeing’s price freeze
Aug. 31, 2016: The dog days of August continue, with limited news and research notes from the Wall Street aerospace analysts.
A few items of note from the past week:
- Boeing’s price list freeze for its 7-Series airplanes drew a yawn from Buckingham Research but some negative energy from Goldman Sachs.
- Airline traffic is slowing (JP Morgan).
- Book:bill numbers drew the attention of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
- Narrow-body aircraft retirements are down, but storage of Boeing 777s and Airbus A330s are up (JP Morgan).
Will United’s new president open door for Airbus?
Scott Kirby moves from president of American Airlines to president of United Airlines. Photo via Google images.
Aug. 30, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Will Scott Kirby’s move from president of American Airlines to the same position at United Airlines lead to a major shift in fleet acquisition at the Chicago-based carrier?
This is an intriguing question that may take some time to answer.
Kirby spent 20 years with American CEO Doug Parker through their careers at America West Airlines, US Airways and American.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We have now covered the capabilities of the joint venture partners for a Russian-Chinese wide-body and its possible market. Now we will look at what kind of aircraft such a cooperation can create, given technology and other constraints.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
There have been bits and pieces leaked to media from Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
We will look at what has been said and combine that with our knowledge of existing and future technological capabilities of the parties to make predictions for what aircraft the project can produce.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-bodywill be made to cover the “small wide-body”market.
- Initial size will be a 250-280 passenger wide-body
- The aircraft will be a twin with engines from either GE or Rolls-Royce.
- Range with 280 passengers will be 6,500nm.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The market
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 25, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having dissected the players behind the Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s time to look at what market such an aircraft aims to capture.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The project participants, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), say they intend to make a 250-280 seat aircraft with a 6,500nm range.
We will look at what market such an aircraft can address from its Entry into Service (EIS) 2025 and over the next 10 years. We will also discuss the constrains that emerges with UAC and COMAC entering the market as new players.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-body covers a market segment called “small wide-body” in the Global market forecast made by Airbus and Boeing.
- Based on data in these forecasts, the dominant market during the first 10 years after a 2025 Entry into Service (EIS) would be a captive Chinese market.
Trump or Clinton will be OK for defense industry: Analyst
Aug. 24, 2016: It’s a light week for relevant commentary from the US aerospace analysts.
- Buckingham Research takes a view on the election of either Trump or Clinton on the defense industry.
- India’s Jet Airways will defer 10 Boeing 787s (Wells Fargo).
- Aeroflot will transfer its 22 787s to another company (Wells Fargo.)
AvWeek obtains Boeing sales targets
Aug. 22, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s the kind of leak that drives a company crazy. Aviation Week obtained an internal Boeing sales target list that is well below a book:bill of 1:1 this year. The math shows that Boeing would have a book:bill of just 0.72:1.
Even this may be optimistic.
The sales target data, obtained by Guy Norris, indicates Boeing had a target of 88 777 sales and 88 787 sales this year.
The list does not distinguish between 777 Classics and 777Xs. So far this year, Boeing booked just eight 777 Classic orders.
It’s booked 19 787 orders.
The target list show 14 orders for the 747-8. Four already have been booked.
The order figures above are through August 16. This sales target list is a few months old and may have changed since then.
Boeing’s guidance has been 1:1.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: background and outlook
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 21, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The discussions around a joint Russian and Chinese development of a 250-300 seat wide-body has been going on for years.
The project got a more concrete form at President Putin’s visit to China in June. On the 25th of June visit, an inter-governmental agreement to develop and market the aircraft was signed.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
At the same time Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) agreed to establish a joint venture for the program.
What market is this aircraft trying to address and will it become a serious player in the wide-body market? Will it give the duopoly Airbus/Boeing something to worry about?
We will address these questions in a series of articles. Before going into the questions around the wide-body program, we will look at the players, UAC and COMAC. Are they up to the job of making a competitive wide-body aircraft?
Summary:
- Russia and China enter the wide-body project with widely different knowledge bases.
- China’s first airliner project, ARJ21, just received local certification after years of delays.
- Russia has produced over 10,000 airliners and has made two generations of wide-body aircraft in the size category.
- The latest wide-body aircraft, Ilyushin IL-96, is on the level of Airbus A340-300 from a technological basis.
ExIm remains blocked by one US Senator
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Introduction
Aug. 18, 2016, © Leeham Co. The US Congress reauthorized the ExIm Bank after a long effort to kill the institution. But the Bank remains out of business for transactions for more than $10m. This means Boeing can’t use the Bank for export financing for purchasers of its 7-Series airplanes.
Why?
Because the Bank doesn’t have a quorum for its Board of Directors.
Why?
Because one US Senator is blocking appointments that would put the Bank back in business.
Who is this Senator?
US Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) is the lone senator blocking the US ExIm Bank from approving credit support for more than $10m. Boeing was a large beneficiary of ExIm support. Shelby is a supporter of the Airbus A320 plant in Mobile (AL). Photo via Google images.
Richard Shelby of Alabama. Shelby once supported ExIm Bank. Now he doesn’t.
According to news reports, Shelby became a convert to the extreme right’s view that ExIm is a form of corporate welfare and Boeing is its primary recipient. Boeing doesn’t need this support, Bank opponents say.
LNC believes there might be another reason.
Alabama is where Boeing rival Airbus opened an A320 assembly plant last year.
Summary
- Airbus had an advantage over Boeing with ExIm Bank shut down—until Airbus ran into its own export financing issues.
- Boeing has a defense unit in Huntsville (AL).
- Emerging Boeing rival Bombardier retains export credit financing support.