Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
Breaking News: Airbus cuts A380 production rate to 1/mo from 2018
July 11, 2016: La Tribune of Paris just broke a report that Airbus will cut the production rate of the A380 to 1/mo in 2018.
LNC will follow shortly with our own coverage.
Rolls Royce, Microsoft and Singapore Airlines: Time to analyze all that data
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 12, 2016, ©. Leeham Co. Farnborough Air Show: Rolls Royce announced a strategic agreement for big Data analysis with Microsoft at yesterday’s Farnborough Air show. Rolls-Royce for years has been monitoring the health of their operational engines run under TotaICare services agreements. This monitoring has been performed on rather modest data samples from the aircraft’s engines.
It is now time to analyze all the information available from the engines and the airframe to gain further operational advantages like lower fuel burn, higher in service reliability or lower maintenance costs. We are then talking about data volumes in another ball-park than what has been captured and analyzed under TotalCare so far.
Singapore Airlines Airbus A350-900 with Rolls-Royce engines. Source: Airbus
“Engine data monitoring has primarily been done up until now to ensure reliable operation and to recognize developing problems in their infancy,” says Rolls-Royce Senior Vice President Service Tom Palmer. “With the help of Microsoft and their world wide Azure cloud computing platform, we can now take engine and airframe operations analysis to the next level. This will ensure that we further reduce our customers fuel consumption and provide them with a more cost effective maintenance program. We will take the digitization of engine and aircraft operations to the next level.” Read more
Bombardier sees more C Series orders this year
Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show begins today with an interview with Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft. There will be paywall and freewall posts throughout the FIA16 this week.
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Introduction
July 10, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: Winning major orders from Air
Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.
Canada and Delta Air Lines earlier this year and the entry into service of the CS100 this Friday with launch customer Swiss International Air should give Bombardier’s bet-the-company gamble a boost for more orders this year.
This is the prediction by Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.
During an interview with LNC on a media demo flight of the CS100 at the Farnborough Air Show, Comer said the smaller BBD can compete with the behemoths Airbus and Boeing for orders in the 125-150 seat sector.
Summary
Comer says:
- Boeing’s prospective 737-7.5 still won’t be competitive.
- The CS100 is better than the Embraer EJet-E2.
- Embraer’s complaints of unfair competition because of Canadian government investment are unfounded.
Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Over the oceans, use FANS
By Bjorn Fehrm
08 July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We have over the last Corners described the future Air Traffic Management systems as a combination of ADS-B and Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications, CPDLC.
What to do when there are no ground stations that can receive the ADS-B broadcast of the aircraft’s position and where it’s going? Or the aircraft’s VHF based CPDLC?
We now talk about crossing the large waters where there are no ground stations for neither ADS-B signals nor VHF communications, whether by voice or data.
Figure 1. North Atlantic Tracks (NAT) going eastbound. Source: Nav Canada
The solutions over these Oceanic areas have to be based on the aircraft following predetermined tracks, Figure 1, and continuously issuing position reports to ground controllers that keep the aircraft separated along the tracks based on the reports. We now cover how this has been done historically and the way forward.
IATA, Lufthansa cargo reports are discouraging
July 6, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Going into the Farnborough Air Show (#FIA16 on Twitter) next week, ominous signs continue to emerge about the health of the air cargo
Photo via Google images.
industry.
The International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) Wednesday said yields and traffic remain under pressure. Freight tonne kilometers fell 0.9% year-over-year, IATA reported.
“Yields remained pressured as freight capacity measured in available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs) increased by 4.9% year-on-year,” IATA said. “reight demand decreased or flat lined in May across all regions with the exception of Europe and the Middle East. These regions recorded growth in air cargo volumes of 4.5% and 3.2%, respectively, in May, compared to the same period last year.”
Lufthansa Cargo saw yields in a “landside” drop, according to a Bloomberg report.
Farnborough Preview #3: Analysts weigh in
July 6, 2017: The industrial portion of the Farnborough Air Show (#FIA16 on Twitter) officially begins Monday and runs through Thursday. There are also some special events Sunday. LNC will be reporting from the Show throughout the week.
Below are a few final previews from aerospace analysts, followed by other analyst reports for the last week. There will be no Weekly Analyst Synopsis next week because of the Show.
Highlights below:
- Expectations for orders modest-to-slow. (Credit Suisse, JP Morgan).
- Southwest MAX deferral (Credit Suisse).
- Airlines face softer environment. (JP Morgan.)
- MOM Aircraft and 777X. (Buckingham Research.)
- Spirit Aerosystems looks to A350 charge.
Book Review: The Crash Detectives
July 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The Crash Detectives, by Christine Negroni, © 2016. Penguin Books. Available on Amazon.com.
As an avid follower of The Smithsonian Channel’s “Air Disaster” series and The Weather Channel’s “Why Planes Crash,” as well as knowing Christine Negroni, I was anxious to read her new book, The Crash Detectives. (Negroni is also the author of Deadly Departure, about TWA Flight 800.)
Negroni is no wanna-be aviation disaster geek. Her resume qualifies her to understand aviation accidents and speak and write with knowledge about them.
Negroni writes about dozens of aviation accidents and mysteries. Some of these are well known (the de Havilland Comet I accidents, for example). Some were miraculous outcomes (United Airlines 232, US Airways 1549, Qantas Airways 32). Some are ancient history (pre-World War II, including the disappearance of Amelia Earhart.)
Among the most interesting are the accidents in which hypoxia of the pilots are involved. These make fascinating reading. And it is hypoxia that is the leading cause of Negroni’s theory of one of commercial aviation’s most infamous mystery.
Pontifications: Boeing is back
By Scott Hamilton
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s looking like all the pain and agony of the 787 development is behind Boeing. (Except for the deferred production costs, of course.)
Boeing is back into airplane development mode.
To be sure, only one of these is a new airplane. The others are derivatives. But at least Boeing seems to be on the move after slowing the train (to mix the metaphors) considerably following the 787 debacle.
Farnborough Air Show preview: expectations and possible surprises
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Introduction
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.
With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.
Don’t be so sure.
Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.
It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.
Summary
- No new products from Airbus.
- Boeing may have a surprise.
- Low number of orders anticipated.
Analysts opine on Airbus, Boeing, Iran and Brexit
Click on image to enlarge.
June 24, 2016: Brexit continues to creep into US analyst reports for the potential impact of companies doing business in the United Kingdom.
But there are other issues as well. Highlights this week:
- Spirit Aerosystem is a supplier to Airbus and Boeing. Deliveries to Airbus for the A350 continue despite program delays. Negotiations continue with Boeing over new contract terms. (Buckingham.)
- Don’t freak out over the Southwest Airlines deferral of Boeing 737 MAX. (Credit Suisse.)
- The Iran deal isn’t a big deal yet for Boeing. (Goldman Sachs.)
- Brexit may benefit B/E Aerospace. (JP Morgan.)
- US trans-Atlantic airlines likely will be hurt by Brexit but purely US domestic carriers are fine. (Morgan Stanley.)