July 19, 2016, © Leeham Co.: If anything came out of the otherwise dull Farnborough Air Show, it was that the Middle of the Market airplane debate is as muddled as ever.
Boeing didn’t launch, or even say much, about the prospective 737-10, a slightly larger version of the MAX 9 intended to close the gap between the 9 and the Airbus A321neo. Boeing illustrates the 737-8-based MAX 200 as a separate model in its product line up. The 737-10 will slot in above the MAX 200, if built.
Boeing increased the demand in its 20-year Current Market Outlook for the small, twin-aisle airplane by 5%–a move Airbus claims is aimed at the Boeing Board of Directors to entice it to approve launch of the New Mid-range Aircraft, or NMA as Boeing now calls the MOM aircraft.
Airbus said the MOM sector ends at 240 seats (single class) and only a single-aisle airplane makes sense. This is a shift from long-standing messaging that the A321neo covers the lower end of the MOM sector and the A330-200/800 covers the upper end. This message was advanced as recently as the Airbus Innovation Days at the end of May.
With the rhetoric changing a bit, is it time to redefine the MOM sector?
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Dearth of wide-body order hang over Airbus, Boeing
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Introduction
July 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It wasn’t a good two weeks for wide-body airplanes.
Airbus, responding to a leak to the Paris newspaper La Tribune, confirmed it will reduce production for the A380 from 20/yr in 2017 to 12/yr in 2018—returning the program to a loss.
Boeing firmed up an MOU announced at the Paris Air Show with Volga Dnepr for 20 747-8Fs, but wouldn’t say how many are firm orders and how many are options.
Week 2: Boeing took nearly $1.7bn in after-tax write downs for the 787 and 747-8 programs.
And, while not directly tied to wide-bodies per se, Delta Air Lines announced it will reduce its trans-Atlantic services for a variety of reasons. Most of these services are performed with wide-body aircraft.
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Posted on July 25, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Leeham News and Comment, Premium
747-8, 787-10, 787-9, A350-900, A380, Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Emirates Airline, Volga-Dnepr
Bjorn’s Corner: Flight simulators
By Bjorn Fehrm
22 July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Last week at the Farnborough Air Show I had the chance to try three flight simulators: The MC-21 airliner simulator, the SAAB Gripen fighter simulator and a special simulator for testing some new 3D synthetic vision ideas for a future avionics system. I’ve now tried some dozen different aircraft simulators of different generations, not counting the PC-based ones.
The simulators were different types. Some were fixed with displays that wrapped around and covered the peripheral vision like the Irkut MC-21 and SAAB Gripen ones. Others were full motion with complete surround vision display like the Airbus A350 simulator that I trained in ahead of flying A350 MSN002 last April, Figure 1. A third type were closed full motion simulators that lacked a vision system.
Figure 1. Airbus full motion A350 simulator in Toulouse. Source: LNC
Compared with the very advanced Airbus simulator, I was surprised how realistic it felt with the simpler fixed simulators I tried last week. It made me wonder why.
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Posted on July 22, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Bjorn's Corner, Irkut, United Aircraft
Airbus, Embraer, Irkut, KC-390, MC-21, Saab, Simulators, United Aircraft
Weekly analyst synopsis: Farnborough recap
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27 Comments
Posted on July 20, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, B/E Aerospace, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, Middle of the Market
Airbus, Bernstein Research, Boeing, Buckingham Research, Farnborough Air Show, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Middle of the Market, MOM, Morgan Stanley
Farnborough redefines the MOM sector
Boeing didn’t launch, or even say much, about the prospective 737-10, a slightly larger version of the MAX 9 intended to close the gap between the 9 and the Airbus A321neo. Boeing illustrates the 737-8-based MAX 200 as a separate model in its product line up. The 737-10 will slot in above the MAX 200, if built.
Boeing increased the demand in its 20-year Current Market Outlook for the small, twin-aisle airplane by 5%–a move Airbus claims is aimed at the Boeing Board of Directors to entice it to approve launch of the New Mid-range Aircraft, or NMA as Boeing now calls the MOM aircraft.
With the rhetoric changing a bit, is it time to redefine the MOM sector?
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45 Comments
Posted on July 19, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, Middle of the Market
737-10, 737-300, 737-8, 737-9, 767-200, A321NEO, A330-200, A330-300, A330-800, A330-900, Airbus, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, John Leahy, Middle of the Market, MOM
Airbus’ Leahy shifts a bit on MOM aircraft
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John Leahy, Airbus COO-Customers. Airbus photo.
July 14, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: Basking on an order for 30 A321LRs on the final day of the Farnborough Air Show, Airbus’ top salesman said the Middle of the Market sector stops at 240 passengers and it’s best served by a single-aisle aircraft.
John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer-Customers, said twin-aisle aircraft down to 240 or even 220 passengers don’t work economically against a single aisle. The A321LR (Long Range) seats a maximum of 240 passengers and it is single-aisle. Even though Airbus has a 250-seat A330-200R (Regional) and an A330-800 (7,200nm-plus range), Leahy didn’t attempt make a case that these aircraft are suitable for the MOM sector.
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Posted on July 18, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, Middle of the Market, Premium
737-7, 767-200, 787-10, 787-3, 787-8, 787-9, A300, A310, A321LR, A321NEO, A330-200, A330-200R, A330-300, A330-800, A350-2000, A380, Airbus, Boeing, John Leahy, Middle of the Market, MOM, New Mid-range Aircraft, NMA
Pontifications: Airbus faces conundrum
By Scott Hamilton
July 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It wasn’t the dominating headline out of the Farnborough Air Show that Airbus would have preferred: a dramatic production rate cut for the slow-selling A380 from 20/yr to 12/yr from 2018.
A leak to the Paris newspaper La Tribune last Tuesday evening forced Airbus to announce the rate cut minutes later, ahead of prepping its employee work force. It was also ahead of an investors analyst breakfast meeting the following day in London. The event’s headlines would have been Tuesday’s unexpectedly strong number of Airbus orders after a dismal Monday for Airbus and Boeing. Instead, the rate cut dominated analysts’ thinking ahead of the breakfast.
Airbus stock closed at 52.53 Euros on the Paris stock exchange Tuesday before La Tribune’s story posted at 7pm. The stock was essentially flat the next day upon opening.
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Posted on July 18, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing
747-8, 777-10, 777-9, A350, A350-1000, A350-2000, A380, Airbus, Boeing, Randy Tinseth
The A380 investors day jinx
Airbus also holds an investors day during the Paris and Farnborough air shows. The latter’s was scheduled on Wednesday. The night before, the French newspaper La Tribune broke news that the production rate of the A380 will be reduced from 20/yr in 2017 to just 12/yr in 2018. Airbus scrambled to catch up to the story Tuesday night in advance of the Wednesday investors day.
The production breaks even at 20 but not at 12. Yet the stock opened down slightly and remained flat during the rest of the day before closing up slightly.
The jinx may be over, but perhaps Airbus either has to fix the A380 program or cancel its investors days.
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Posted on July 15, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Qatar Airways
737 MAX, 737-10, 737-9, 737NG, A320NEO, A380, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, EJet E2, Embraer, GTF, John Wojick, LEAP-1A, Pratt & Whitney, Qatar Airways, Ryanair, Southwest Airlines
Bjorn’s corner: Farnborough week
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 15, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: We have been at Farnborough Air Show this week, the highlight of the year for an aircraft geek like me. This year there were several interesting aircraft that visited the show for the first time.
Embraer brought over the brand new first prototype of the E-jet 190-E2 and the prototype of their military transporter, the KC-390. Bombardier had their first customer/production CS100 from Swiss to visit the show in addition to their Flight Test Vehicle (FTV) no 5. And Lockheed Martin had the F35B, the vertical landing version, come and hover over the airfield the days that were reasonably rain free in the afternoon.
One thing is clear with the new generation of Single Aisle aircraft: their high bypass engines dominate the visual appearance. Figure 1 shows the 73 inch version of the Pratt & Whitney GTF on the E190-E2 prototype. Huge diameter engine on a not so huge diameter aircraft.
Figure 1. The prototype E190-E2 with its Pratt & Whitney GTF engine on the Farnborough apron. LNC photo.
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Posted on July 15, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Antonov, Bjorn's Corner, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, E-Jet, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Irkut, Pratt & Whitney, United Aircraft
Airbus, Antonov, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, MC-21, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
Boeing: Our 737 MAX product range will come to market as planned despite changes
By Bjorn Fehrm
Mike Delaney. Source: Boeing
July 13, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: Mike Delaney, Boeing’s Vice president and General manager for Aircraft development in the Commercial Airplane division, promises unchanged delivery times despite late changes to the company’s 737 MAX line-up.
Delaney went through the changes for the MAX program as part of a larger presentation, outlining the status for all ongoing aircraft developments within Boeing at the ongoing Farnborough Air Show.
The original 737 MAX 7 seen in the picture has just grown 12 seats. Source: Boeing
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Posted on July 13, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Future aircraft, Middle of the Market, MOM
737 MAX, 757, 767-300ER, 777X, 787-10, A320NEO, A321NEO, A330neo, Airbus, Boeing, Mike Delaney, MOM, NMA
AirAsia: More and more congestion for Asian airports
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 13, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: AirAsia Group Chief Executive Tony Fernandes said yesterday that increased congestion the group has seen for several of the airports AirAsia operates to in the Asian market motivated an order for 100 Airbus A321neos.
“We are slot constrained on several of our destinations and when we can’t get any more slots from an airport, it’s better to take-off with the 50 more passengers that an A321neo offers rather than the 180 seat our standard A320 have,” said Fernandes.
AirAsia Airbus A321 as ordered yesterday at Farnborough Airshow. Source: Airbus
“The congestion has grown to the point where it will no longer be optimal for AirAsia to only operate with our standard-size aircraft, our fleet of 200 A320ceos with 180 seats, which will be gradually replaced in coming years by our order for 304 A320neos with the same seating,” Fernandes said. Read more
10 Comments
Posted on July 13, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
AirAsia, Airbus, Airlines, CFM
A320NEO, A321NEO, AirAsia, Airbus, CFM, LEAP-1A, Ton Fernandes
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