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737-7X, 737-10 studies illustrate Boeing weakness in single-aisle market

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Introduction

April 27, 2016 © Leeham Co.: News that Boeing plans to develop a “737-7.5” MAX, following on the prospect of a “737-10” stretch of the 737-9 illustrates just how weak its single aisle product strategy has become.

The Wall Street Journal revealed last week that Boeing is planning the airplane, which is larger than the current 737-7 but smaller than the 737-8. Jon Ostrower, the reporter, dubbed the plane the 737-7.5. Internally, it’s called the 737-7X.

Summary

The 737-7 MAX has proved a sales dud. There are just 60 orders from two established airlines, Southwest and WestJet, and one start-up carrier that ordered just five.
Bombardier appears on the cusp of landing an order from Delta Air Lines for up to 125 CS300s, the direct competitor to the 7 MAX, but this is only one element in Boeing’s consideration to grow into the “7.5.”
Rather than being a growth of the 7 MAX, the 7.5 will be a shrink of the 737-8. This is a less costly and more efficient method for Boeing, but shrinks are never the best solution for the operator.
LNC reported in February that Boeing had decided to recommit to the 7 MAX after nearly losing an order to Bombardier for the C Series. Instead, UAL ordered the 737-700 at an unusually low price and other considerations. Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, called the deal a blocking move to BBD. The 7.5 appears to be the course Boeing has chosen.
Pursuit of a 737-10, a stretch of the 737-9 that may include a new wing, larger engines and other changes, is an acknowledgement the 737-9 is losing the battle for this size aircraft to the Airbus A321neo. But Boeing’s challenges to develop a 737-10 are vexing. More than a year ago, LNC outlined these.

Airbus deliveries first USA-made A321ceo, to JetBlue

The first Airbus A321ceo assembled at the Mobile (AL) plant was delivered today to jetBlue. Photo from Airways News via Twitter.

April 25, 2016: The first Airbus A320 family aircraft assembled at the Airbus Mobile (AL) plant was delivered today to jetBlue. The A321ceo, which the airline named BluesMobile, is the first of 10 A321s now in production at the plant. Eight more A321s will be delivered to American Airlines. Spirit Airlines gets the 10th.

45 Comments

Posted on April 25, 2016 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing

A320, A321ceo, Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, JetBlue, John Leahy, Spirit Air

Pontifications: Earnings week for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer

By Scott Hamilton

April 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer having their first quarter earnings call this week. Bombardier also has its Annual General Meeting concurrent with its 1Q earnings on Friday.

The big anticipation will be with Bombardier.

Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported Delta Air Lines was going to order 75+50 C Series from BBD. Delta, on its 1Q earnings call, said it had nothing to announce but would have more to say at its investors day. This is May 16.

But at the same time, BBD postponed its AGM and 1Q call from the 28^th to the 29^th. Delta’s board of directors meets on the 28^th. Previously, BBD postponed by one day its year-end earnings call to coincide with Air Canada, which announced an order for 45 C Series, plus options.

Is Bombardier’s rescheduling another harbinger of the Delta order, or will Delta hold off any announcement until that May 16 investors day?

Or could Delta announce the Bombardier order Friday and the widely reported, expected order for 30-37 Airbus A321ceos?

The world aviation geeks wonder.

90 Comments

Posted on April 25, 2016 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, Embraer, Pontifications, Pratt & Whitney

737-7, 737-7.5, A320NEO, A321ceo, A350, Airbus, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Boeing, Bombardier, C Series, Credit Suisse, Embraer, GTF, Pratt & Whitney, Ron Epstein, Ron Spingarn

Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500? Part 3.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 25, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We will now finish our series where we look into how big an undertaking a CS300 stretch to a 150 seater would be for Bombardier.

The C Series existing models, the CS100 and CS300, were designed with the CS300 as the main family member. That makes a stretch to a CS500 a pretty straight-forward job from a wing perspective, only minor adjustments are needed.

The problem area for the stretch is the fuselage. The C Series is a five abreast aircraft and at 150 seats the aircraft will have more than 30 seat rows. The resulting long fuselage limits the available rotation angle at takeoff.

Having discussed the different actions that can be taken to handle this problem in Part 2, we will now check the implications for the takeoff field length with our performance model. The model will also show if the engine takeoff thrust needs to be increased.

Finally, we will use the model to estimate the fuel consumption and the range of a CS500 derivative.

Summary

A CS500 derivative made from the CS300 is a pretty straight-forward stretch project.
Special care has to be taken with the risk for tails strikes from a longer fuselage.
With the discussed actions in place, the field performance of a CS500 is still very good, even though it can’t compete with a CS300.
The range would be less than a CS300 but the aircraft would still be capable of five hour missions.
Fuel consumption would be higher per trip but lower per seat than a CS300. It would give existing 150 seaters strong competition on efficiency.

1 Comment

Posted on April 25, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney, Premium

737-7, A319neo, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CS300, CS500, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney

Bjorn’s Corner: We fly to Nice

By Bjorn Fehrm

22 April 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we described the function of the aircraft’s Flight Management System, FMS. Now we will use the FMS to program a flight between Innsbruck in Austria and my hometown Nice on the French Riviera.

To make it practical and easy to follow, we will focus on how the Flightplan that we have programmed into the FMS will be processed. To follow that, we look at the display of the FMS navigation on the aircraft’s navigation display. There, one can follow how the FMS and Autopilot work through all the information that a flight-planned mission contains.

The cockpit we see in the picture is the aircraft we will use, an A319 that we have borrowed for the day from Lufthansa, just to help us understand how navigation with a FMS works. It is of course not a real aircraft, but it’s not far from it.

Figure 1. Our flight for the day, Aerosoft’s A319. Source: Aerosoft’s A319 flight simulator

The best flight simulators that are available for your PC today are extremely well done and realistic; this is one of them. It’s an A319 simulator from the German company Aerosoft. I flew the mission for us yesterday.

Let’s see how it works.

15 Comments

Posted on April 22, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Bjorn's Corner

A319, Aerosoft, Luftansa Airlines

Fewer A350s in 2017-18, says Cowen & Co.; not so, says Airbus

April 21, 2016: Airbus will assemble fewer A350s than planned in 2017 and 2018, according to a short note to clients by the Cowen & Co. obtained by LNC.

Not so, says Airbus.

The investment bank was commenting on supplier Hexcel.

35 Comments

Posted on April 21, 2016 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing

777, 787, A320NEO, A330ceo, A350, A400M, Airbus, Boeing, Cowen & Co

Airbus, Boeing 1Q earnings ahead

April 20, 2016: Airbus and Boeing will report their first quarter earnings April 28 and 27 respectively.

Year-to-date, Boeing is clobbering Airbus in orders and deliveries. It should be noted that last year, Boeing jumped to an early lead in orders and Airbus came roaring back by mid-year and year-end to outsell Boeing by a wide margin. Each company has guided at least 1:1 book-to-bill. This suggests Boeing would outsell Airbus this year because of a higher production rate: more than 740 compared with fewer than 700. Given Airbus’ propensity to have a stronger second half sales than first half, the outcome of the sales race is anything but iffy to call at this early juncture.

14 Comments

Posted on April 20, 2016 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing

737, 747-8, 777 Classic, 787, A320NEO, A350, Airbus, Boeing

Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500? Part 2.

By Bjorn Fehrm

Subscription required

Introduction

April 20, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we started our analysis to see whether Bombardier could stretch their C Series aircraft program from two members covering 100 to 135 passengers (in two class configuration) into a three aircraft family that would cover up to the main segment of the present single aisle market, the 150-160 seat segment.

We found that the main problem area seems to be the margin for rotation at take-off with a longer CS500 fuselage, a similar problem that affects the Boeing 737 MAX 9. There are several ways to attack such a problem in an aircraft like the C Series. We will now investigate the different options and what influence these would have to the cabin capacities for such an aircraft.

Summary

To create a CS500 that would cover the main single aisle seating segment (that of 150-160 seats two class), Bombardier would have to do rather modest changes to the present CS300.
The stretch would introduce a longer fuselage but the wing could stay pretty much the same.
The longer fuselage brings some challenges. The C Series has the wing and therefore main landing gear in a forward position for efficiency reasons. This limits the rotation angle for a longer CS500.
We go through the options for handling this problem and its consequences for the CS500 cabin capacity.

Read more

Bombardier’s Delta deal looking good, but don’t celebrate yet

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Introduction

Air Baltic will be the first operator of the Bombardier CS300. Source: Bombardier.

April 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier, if it didn’t dominate the news cycle in commercial aviation last week, must have come close. Consider:

The Wall Street Journal, and then Bloomberg, reported that BBD was near to winning a big order for 75+50 from Delta Air Lines for its C Series.
Reuters reported that BBD rejected demands from the Canadian federal government in Ottawa as conditions for investing US$1bn in the company. (Officials tried to walk this back some, saying talks continue.)
The head of corporate strategy for BBD came forward to forcefully argue for the investment as good for taxpayers, breaking what largely has been a cone of silence over the perceived merits of a deal
The US$1bn the Quebec provincial government agreed to invest last year remains unfunded.
BBD stock, which last year dropped to less than C$1, threatening the listings on the Canadian exchanges, jumped to C$1.75 at one point in anticipation of a Delta order.

While on balance, it seems likely Delta will order the C Series, Bombardier has been down this road before. Only a few months ago, the market and others were excited over the prospect that BBD was close to landing an order from United Airlines, only to see Boeing swoop in and grab the deal.

Summary

This is the second try at a major contract with Delta Air Lines.
The primary competition is against Embraer, not Airbus or Boeing.
We revisit our Skyline Risk Assessment, dormant for the extended period in which BBD had no sales of the C Series.

Pontifications: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and export credit support

By Scott Hamilton

April 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Export Credit for airliners was back in the news last week, with the US taking aim at the prospect of Canada’s agency supporting sales of the Bombardier C Series to the US and France and Germany suspending export credit support for Airbus airplanes.

The week before, Dennis Muilenburg, the CEO of The Boeing Co., testified before Congress that although the US ExIm Bank was reauthorized, Senate action—or more accurately, inaction—on confirming members of the ExIm Board of Directors has kept the agency shut down for new deals. There isn’t a quorum of members on the Board to approve new deals.

37 Comments

Posted on April 18, 2016 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, ExIm Bank, Pontifications

737-7, 737-700, A319, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, C Series, Charlie Brown, CS300, Dennis Muilenburg, ExIm

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Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

Leeham News and Analysis

737-7X, 737-10 studies illustrate Boeing weakness in single-aisle market

Airbus deliveries first USA-made A321ceo, to JetBlue

Pontifications: Earnings week for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer

Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500? Part 3.

Bjorn’s Corner: We fly to Nice

Fewer A350s in 2017-18, says Cowen & Co.; not so, says Airbus

Airbus, Boeing 1Q earnings ahead

Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500? Part 2.

Bombardier’s Delta deal looking good, but don’t celebrate yet

Pontifications: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and export credit support

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