Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
- Tariffs Tumult Takes Over GE Aerospace Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 22, 2025
Airbus’ and Boeing’s Payload/Range for Single Aisle
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
Aug. 13 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Boeing this month changed the way it presents its aircraft in important areas like seating, weight and performance configurations, in short its “rule set.” After using a standardized but old rule set for 20 years, it updated all data around how far its aircraft can transport a standardized payload.
Airbus at the same time is also changing how it presents its aircraft. Right now the dual aisle wide bodies are going from a two class to a three class cabin in its rule set. While Boeing is leaving three class for two class, Airbus is going in the other direction.
Why these movements and are there any common themes in these conflicting changes?
We go behind the scenes to decipher the changes and decode what it all means when one want to compare Boeing and Airbus products. We start with the single aisle aircraft this week.
Summary:
- Airbus and Boeing had rather small differences in their rules and how they characterized single aisle aircraft up until this month.
- From now on Boeing is using higher average passenger+bags loads and have added additional equipment to the aircraft’s empty weight specification.
- We show what these changes mean for the aircraft’s performance. We also use our model to show Airbus single aisle aircraft’s range should they use the same rules as Boeing’s aircraft.
Mitigating risk, lessons learned as Boeing heads into MAX, 777X production
Aug. 12, 2015, © Leeham Co. Mitigating risk and taking lessons learned from across the entire 7-Series families are key to improving productivity, cutting costs and
Greg Smith, chief financial officer of The Boeing Co. Source: Boeing.
preparing for the transition from the 737NG to the MAX and from the 777 Classic to the 777X, the chief financial officer of The Boeing Co. said today at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference.
Greg Smith told the conference, which was webcast, that putting all new airplane development under one department enables a common understanding of what’s going on across the product lines and therefore the new product lines benefit to reduce risk and create efficiencies.
The lessons learned from the 787 lines in Everett and Charleston “are very encouraging,” Smith said. “We are getting better learning from those efficiencies that transition to other parts of the business.”
Boeing is shutting the 787 surge line in Everett because production on the line is more inefficient than the main Everett and Charleston lines.
“The surge line has reached a point where it’s more inefficient than efficient,” Smith said. “We’ve reached a point of maturity in production where it’s clearly not needed. Getting the maturity of those two lines up gives you the confidence to shut down the surge line.”
B/E Aerospace sees “flat” widebody deliveries through 2016
Aug. 12, 2015, © Leeham Co.: Widebody deliveries are “flat as a pancake” and will remain so through 2016 before going up, driven by the Airbus A350, says a major 
supplier.
Officials of B/E Aerospace appeared yesterday at the Jefferies Co Global Industrials Conference, making the near-term forecast. B/E is best known as a seat supplier but also supplies galleys and lavatories.
With passenger load factors now routinely running around 85% and traffic growing, B/E’s backlog is greater than ever and the OEMs, pressured by airlines for on-time deliveries, likewise pressure suppliers. B/E competitor Zodiac had difficulties meeting demand late last year and early this year.
“You cannot image how much stress is created cannot deliver an airplane on time and the reason is a supplier,” a B/E official said. B/E has been able to keep up with demand.
Blockbuster deal for PCP: analysts’ first take
August 11, 2015: Berkshire Hathaway’s blockbuster $37bn acquisition proposal for Precision Castparts (stock symbol NYSE:PCP) takes one of the aerospace 
industry’s major suppliers out of the public trading and into one of the scores of Warren Buffet’s stable of companies under the Berkshire name.
PCP–we’ve always been amused by this stock symbol that shares initials with an illicit drug–is a major supplier to Boeing and other aerospace companies. PCP has grown through acquisitions of its own in addition to organic growth. PCP is a supplier to other industries besides aerospace.
Aerospace analysts have this first take on the acquisition, which is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals:
Pontifications: Talk about government interference in private industry; book review of United “Flight 232”
- There are many topics on which to comment, n one of which requiring a full Pontification, so today’s column is going to be a bit of a free association.
By Scott Hamilton
August 10, 2015, (c) Leeham Co. Government interference: While right wing Republicans and Tea Party members decry supposed ExIm Bank interference with private industry, there is now a bill in Congress to sell millions of barrels of oil from the USA’s Strategic Oil Reserve in order to raise $15bn.
Unlike the ExIm Bank’s participation in the global capital markets, Congress’s action–if it passes–won’t create jobs. It will compete with jobs and companies trying to sell oil in the global market place. It will help drive prices down.
Once more, the hypocrisy of Congress is glaringly evident.
Bombardier: Pierre Beaudoin should have left Bombardier last February when he relinquished the title of president and CEO to Alain Bellemare instead of assuming the chairman’s title. This is the opinion of a few people with whom I’ve talked just in the last week.
Furthermore, the Beaudoin family needs to step out of the company entirely and give up its voting control (it has 54% of the voting stock) if BBD wants to attract new investors, says one Canadian aerospace analyst who hasn’t written any of this publicly.
“I can’t even see how they’re going to raise money for BT. I can’t imagine European investors would like subordinate shares either. Equity markets won’t be supportive unless the Family gives up control,” this analyst wrote me.
MH370: “Presumption” becomes “high presumption,” but little else
August 5, 2015: French authorities said today there is a “high presumption” that the flaperon found last week on La Reunion Island east of the African coast is from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, a Boeing 777-200ER.
The prime minister of Malaysia was more certain, saying the wing part was definitely from MH370.
When the flaperon was found and identified by photos as coming from a 777, the presumption then was that it was from MH370. Now it’s a “high presumption.”
Beyond this, there is nothing new.
Pontifications: Mitsubishi nears first flight for MRJ-90
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 3, 2015, © Leeham Co. Mitsubishi is just a few months away from beginning flight testing on the first commercial airplane designed and built in
Japan’s first commercial airliner after World War II was the YS-11 turbo-prop. Photo via Google images.
Japan since the NAMC YS-11 in the 1960s.
The 60 passenger turbo prop had its first flight in 1962 and entered service three years later with ANA. Only 182 were built, and it had a surprisingly wide customer base in the primary and secondary markets. Google images has a nice montage of the operators, which spanned the globe.
Japan’s first commercial airliner since the YS-11 is the MRJ-90 by Mitsubishi. Photo via Google images.
The Mitsubishi MRJ 90 as yet doesn’t have wide acceptance. There are about 200 firm orders and about an equal number of options, but the customer base is thin: 100 of the orders and 100 of the options come from the USA’s SkyWest Airlines and 50+50 are from the USA’s Trans States Airlines. All Nippon Airlines orders 15 and Japan Air Lines ordered 32. Air Mandalay ordered six and the new Eastern Airlines, a start-up carrier, ordered 20.
And that’s it.
The MRJ is a 2×2 passenger cabin configuration with comfortable 18-inch wide seats. The passenger experience should be similar to the Embraer E-Jet that’s been in service since 2004 and better than the Bombardier CRJ Series, which is a cramped cabin.
The MRJ is two years late. The first flight is now scheduled for October and entry-into-service in 2017. But with the vast majority of the orders coming from US regional airlines that contract for US majors, there’s just one problem: the MRJ-90 exceeds the allowable airplane weight in the pilot contracts permitting regional flying on behalf of the majors. This is under what’s called the Scope Clause.
Bjorn’s Corner: After weight or fuel limited we examine weight or volume limited
By Bjorn Fehrm
31 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we explained what fuel limited meant and how that differs from an aircraft that has big enough fuel tanks so it can operate weight limited for its missions.
This was for fuel and it dictates to a large degree how the aircraft will behave on long range missions. When we block off seats to fly further, is it to allow more fuel in our tanks or is it to make the aircraft lighter to fly further with tanks already filled to the brim.
A similar phenomenon appears when we load the aircraft with its payload; an aircraft can take-off volume or weight limited. Here is how it works.
Rolls-Royce and Safran, major European engine OEMs with different fortunes.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 30, 2015 © Leeham Co. Rolls-Royce and Safran, the parent company of CFM partner Snecma, released their Q2 and first half 2015 earnings today. It is interesting to compare these companies as they are in different strategic situations in their dominant business segments, civil turbofan engines.
Civil turbofans constitute 52% of Rolls-Royce total business whereas it makes 54% of Safran’s turn over. Rolls-Royce’s focus has been widebody engines to the point where it exited its part of International Aero Engines, which makes the single aisle V2500 engine, three years ago. Safran on the other hand is heavily invested in the single aisle market through its 50% part in CFM through its Snecma subsidiary.
The present situation and the future outlook for these two companies are intimately aligned with this strategic difference. We look at why and how this will affect their immediate future.
Summary:
- Rolls-Royce is experiencing migration problems in its widebody turbofan business. Its bread and butter Trent 700 engine is on its way out and it takes until 2018 for the replacement, Trent 7000, to kick in.
- Other programs are only growing slowly: the Trent 1000 for Boeing’s 787 or Trent XWB for the Airbus A350.
- Safran civil turbofan business Snecma is enjoying record sales and deliveries through its CFM joint venture with GE.
- Despite sharing its revenue 50:50 with GE, the business turnover is the size of Rolls-Royce turbofan business today and larger tomorrow. Profit margins are three times higher.