Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
United orders 200 Boeing 737 MAXes, 70 Airbus A321neos
By the Leeham News Team
June 29, 2021, © Leeham News: United Airlines today announced its order for 200 Boeing 737 MAXes and 70 Airbus A321neos.
The size and split of the order were first reported by Airfinance Journal.
Source: United Airlines
The deal is the carrier’s largest, as well as the industry’s largest “in a decade.”* The order is for 50 737 MAX 8s, 150 737 MAX 10s and 70 A321neos. “United will replace older, smaller mainline jets and at least 200 single-class regional jets with larger aircraft,” the airline said.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About the Boeing Design and Production Moonshot
June 29, 2021, © Leeham News: “Most often when a new airplane is developed by either side, it is usually developed around a propulsion package that offers 15% to 20% improvement with respect to efficiency versus the one it’s displacing. That’s the way it’s happened over a long period of time,” Boeing CEO David Calhoun said on the most recent earnings call.
“I don’t believe the next generation of an engine can deliver that kind of performance. Therefore, whatever cost-efficiency ultimately and whatever performance advantages are derived from the next airplane in my view are going to come from the way it’s engineered and the way it’s manufactured. All [will be] with a focus on a lower cost per seat when we get it to the marketplace. And, yes, [it will have] a more sustainable package with respect to the environment.”
Just how practical is this approach? Today’s 10 Minutes About discusses Boeing’s moonshot in design and production for its next airplane, whatever it is.
China distorts progress in Boeing 737 MAX return to service
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
June 28, 2021, © Leeham News: There are now 265 Boeing 737 MAXes in airline service, according to data reviewed by LNA.
There are 263 MAXes in storage that appear to be previously delivered airplanes. This number is artificially inflated by the 95 MAXes that are grounded in China. China’s regulator hasn’t recertified the MAX, a move widely considered political due to the long-running trade war between the US and China initiated by the Trump Administration.
When the MAX was grounded in March 2019, there were 387 in service. The math indicates 147 MAXes were delivered from inventory or new production since the airplane was recertified by the Federal Aviation Administration in November 2020 and other regulators shortly afterward.
There were 400 MAXes in inventory at the end of the first quarter, down from 425 at the end of the year. Boeing resumed production in the single digits. Boeing does not reveal its rate, but it is believed to be about 10-14/mo going to 16/mo in the third quarter.
In contrast, there are 106 A320neos and 38 A321neos in storage as of last Friday.
Pontifications: The WTO Airbus/Boeing standstill and pursuing China
June 28, 2021, © Leeham News: The US and European Union agreed on June 15 to a standstill in the 17-year old trade dispute over illegal subsidies to Airbus and Boeing.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) found each violated international rules. By the time all was said and done, the US was authorized to levy tariffs on $7.5bn worth of European goods. The EU received authorization to levy tariffs on $4bn of US goods.
Tariffs on goods went beyond Airbus and Boeing products. But it was 15% tariffs on Airbus planes imported into the US and Boeing planes imported into the EU that were the highest-profile and most costly.
Despite initial reports in some uninformed media that the long-running dispute was “resolved,” in fact, only a standstill was agreed. The US and EU now have five years to negotiate a permanent settlement to Airbus’ “reimbursable launch aid” and Boeing’s benefits from tax breaks and NASA.
The two sides also agreed to put China’s commercial aerospace industry in the crosshairs.
HOTR: USAF prepares for new tanker competition, pitting Lockheed Martin/Airbus and Boeing against each other
By the Leeham News Team
June 22, 2021, © Leeham News: The US Air Force appears to be preparing a new round of competition for the next phase of its aerial refueling tanker recapitalization.
The first, KC-X, took more than 10 years to award a contract that didn’t get overturned. Boeing initially was awarded a lease deal in 2001 that was canceled in the wake of a scandal that sent two Boeing officers to jail and led to the resignation of CEO Phil Condit.
Round two pitted Boeing against Northrop Grumman and EADS, which was the name of the parent of Airbus’ commercial unit. Northrop won, but this award was overturned when USAF improprieties were revealed in the debriefing.
Round three pitted Boeing against EADS alone after Northrop bowed out. Boeing won this contract with a price 10% below EADS, which didn’t contest the decision. Boeing since has written off about $5bn on the KC-46A tanker, which still doesn’t work as required and which was delivered nearly two years late.
Related stories:
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 8. Transport category rulings.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca
June 18, 2021, ©. Leeham News: We continue our discussion about the Transport Category (FAA Part 25) certification rules.
Last week we talked about how much tougher the birdstrike protection is for Part 25. Now we look at the fuel tanks and the inherent explosion risk in these.
Figure 1. The Boeing 747-100 N93119 that flew TWA flight 800. Source: Wikipedia.
Freighter conversion will absorb some excess widebody supply – but not all
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
June 17, 2021, © Leeham News: A key question hanging over the used widebody market is what percentage of available aircraft could be converted into freighters.
Indeed, existing passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversion providers are ramping up capacity and new ones are coming online. However, much of the P2F capacity growth is focused on converting used 737s and A320-family aircraft.
Airbus and Boeing foresee a market for 1,500-1,600 conversions over the next 20 years. While Boeing doesn’t break out its forecast between single-aisle and widebody aircraft, Airbus believes 670 of these will be widebodies.
Conversion work at Israel’s IAI on the first 777-300ER P2F. Source: IAI via Cargo Facts.
In this analysis, LNA explores the size of the market, key providers, conversion capacity, and likely buyers of converted aircraft.
Summary
- Nearly 2,000 widebodies are in storage or coming off lease by 2030.
- New-build freighters will go to more established operators, while P2Fs are preferred by operators wishing to minimize capital costs.
- At current production rates, up to 400 widebodies could be converted by 2030.
- Early-production 787s, A350s are less likely to be converted.
Airbus program update tomorrow: what will officials reveal?
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
June 14, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus will provide a commercial program update tomorrow in Toulouse.
Will the Next Boeing Airplane be like the 757 with a composite new wing and new engines? Boeing photo.
But will officials announce Authority to Offer (ATO) an A350 freighter for sale?
Will they formally acknowledge development of an “A322”?
There is a plethora of articles, including LNA, in recent weeks discussed the prospect of Airbus launching an A350F this year. Potential customers have seen presentations from Airbus. Boeing’s overwhelming dominance in freighters is under threat.
If Airbus announces ATO tomorrow, Boeing may be forced to take its 777-8F concept out of mothballs. Boeing suspended development of the 777-8 and -8F during the 737 MAX and pandemic crises.
Then there is the prospect of the long-talked about “A322.”
This airplane, if launched, will have a new composite wing, more powerful engines and up to 24 more passengers. The wing is called the Wing of Tomorrow and has been under development for years.
If Airbus launches the A322, which also has a working name of A321 Plus Plus, Boeing will find it very tough to build a business case for its Next Boeing Airplane (NBA). The most recent iteration seems to be basically a reinvention of the 757-200/300: a metallic fuselage with a composite wing and new engines.
Summary
- Airbus now has the leadership role held by Boeing for decades, says the industry’s most influential executive.
- What does the Next Boeing Airplane look like?
- Airbus thinks it can match the NBA with an A322 for a lot less money to the customer.
- But will airlines want a 2025 technology or be satisfied with a makeover for an Airbus with roots in 1980s technology?
Boeing’s CEO says the next airplane won’t be a response to just the Airbus A321XLR. Airbus photo.
Pontification: It’s time to replace the 737, says industry leader
By Scott Hamilton
June 14, 2021, © Leeham News: One of commercial aviation’s most influential leaders said last week Boeing needs to replace the 737 with a new technology airplane.
Steven Udvar-Hazy, chairman of Air Lease Corp., said in a CNBC interview June 9 the 737 is a good airplane, but the time has come for a replacement.
“Boeing has to look at the future. What kind of airplanes that airlines will need with all the environmental challenges, regulatory challenges? What is the airplane type airlines will need 5, 10, 15, 20 years from now?” Hazy said.
“Boeing needs to invest. The 737 is a wonderful airplane, but it’s been in operation since 1967. We have an airplane that its basic design has been around for 54 years. It’s time for a new technology airplane that will give airlines and the public greater efficiency, better economics, better environmental footprint so the airlines can make money with it and yet meet the challenges that we’re facing on the environmental front.”
Pontifications: Qatar, United, Boom, Airbus and Aerion
By Scott Hamilton
June 7, 2021, © Leeham News: It’s been a busy couple of weeks in commercial aviation, with several reports last week alone.
- Qatar Airways expresses interest in Boeing 777X-F and Airbus A350F.
- United Airlines announces a “commercial agreement” with Boom Supersonic to purchase 15 Overture jets and option 35.
- Boeing exploring reinventing the 757.
- Airbus moves toward a new wing for A320 family.
- Aerion Aviation terminates program, shuts down. May 21.
Some of these reports were new and interesting Others were over-hyped and fluff.
Let’s run them down.