Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Could an NMA be made good enough?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After showing there exists an NMA (New Midrange Aircraft) gap, the next question follows: Can an aircraft be made for the segment that can carve out a big enough slice to make it a worthwhile effort?
It’s a tough question. Any new aircraft will cost at least $10bn to develop for the airframe alone. To this one shall add the engine development. There exists no suitable engine for such an aircraft. To motivate the investments, the aircraft has to bring a substantial performance improvement compared to existing aircraft. Can it?
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
We go through the key areas that can bring improvements and check if enough progress can is made until an NMA entry into service in 2024 or 2025.
Summary:
- Existing aircraft are either too little or too much aircraft to fill an NMA role.
- By careful design choices, especially for the fuselage, a new aircraft can achieve the required performance.
easyJet, the Ryanair follower
By Bjorn Fehrm
-March 22, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: easyJet started 10 years after Ryanair, using the same Southwest Airlines derived Low Cost Carrier (LCC) business model.
easyJet has been expanding at the pace of Ryanair over the years, trailing the European LCC pioneer by around 20% to 30% of passengers carried each year.
For the last fiscal year ending 30 September 2016, easyJet carried 73 million passengers between 30 countries, flying 820 different routes.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engine maintenance, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we showed graphs of the yearly flight hours for engines on single-aisle aircraft. Now we will deduce the market for engine overhauls from these graphs.
These will show which engines generate a maintenance volume that is interesting for engine overhaul companies and which engines are niche.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
Based on the market size, we will then go through how an engine is maintained when new, mature and at end-of-life.
Boeing 737 MAX 10 analyzed
By Bjorn Fehrm
Note: Boeing’s “soft launch” of the 737-10 MAX at the ISTAT conference in San Diego a week ago met with some sharp criticism by lessors and some others. Within hours, Boeing scheduled a conference call for reporters the next day to defend and promote the airplane. LNC closely tracked the development of the MAX 10 and its competivitive position vis-a-vis the Airbus A321neo. Here is our first detailed, public analysis of the MAX 10.–Editor.
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Introduction
March 12, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has taken the wraps of the 737 MAX 10. Its overall configuration has long been known to LNC, but we now have more data and performance claims that we can analyze.
Boeing claims the MAX 10 flies farther, cheaper and with just about the same numbers of passengers as the class-leading Airbus A321neo.
We now have enough data to analyze if this is true. We put the data in our performance model and here is the result.
Summary:
- Boeing’s claims on a basic level seem OK. The seating is close to the A321neo.
- On a higher level it starts to stutter. Our model can’t agree on the 5% better economics.
Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines maintenance, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 10, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we started the series how airline turbofans are maintained. We described the typical work scopes and what the intervals were for different single-aisle engines.
Before we can describe the engine maintenance market we must get a feel for the market size for different engine types.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
We will start with understanding the single-aisle engine maintenance market. Read more
Engine OEMs diverge on technology for next generation
March 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Representatives of the four major commercial engine
GE9X, the final engine in a decade-long engine renewal program for GE Aviation and CFM International
manufacturers have divergent views of the next round of engine development, either for the Middle of the Market/New Mid-range Airplane (NMA) or New Small Airplanes (NSA) coming in the next decade.
Officials of CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce appeared at the annual ISTAT conference in San Diego yesterday.
PW’s Rick Deurloo, SVP of Sales, Marketing Commercial Engines, had the added task of dealing with the highly-publicized teething issues surrounding its new Geared Turbo Fan engine on the Airbus A320neo.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engine maintenance, Part 1
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 3, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We will now go through how airline turbofans are maintained. First, we will describe the typical work which is performed, then look into the markets for engine maintenance.
In the markets for engine maintenance, we will look at who the players are, how they are related to the engine OEMs and why the market dynamics are very different between engines for single-aisle aircraft and wide-bodies.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines in operation, Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 24, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: After having analyzed how the engine gets stressed during different phases of flight, we now look into how engines are used. The de-rating of engines for takeoff is important, as not 100% thrust is needed for all takeoffs. If the aircraft is lightly loaded or is taking off from a long runway, with low temperatures or altitude, the engine can be thrust de-rated so that it experiences less stress.
Once in the air, the engine is run below maximum settings by use of cost-index. These actions will result in less fuel usage and also longer engine operation between overhauls. We will now finish the operations part of our engine clinic with how airlines keep the engines away from the workshops by swapping the engines between fleet aircraft.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
A visit to the engine workshop costs in the millions of dollars, so the longer the engine can operate before a shop visit, the better. Read more
Ryanair: cheapest and most profitable airline in Europe
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 22, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Ryanair is Europe’s airline with the lowest fares. And it’s the most profitable, despite growing faster than even the Middle East carriers (growth needs money).
It’s time to dive deep in this locomotive. I even flew their business class before writing the report, to understand what is going on. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines in operation, Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In our journey of an airline engine’s life, we will now look at the maintenance which is necessary to keep it fit for flight.
An engine is only in top condition once in its life, at delivery. As soon as it’s operated on the aircraft, in-service wear of its different parts will reduce its performance.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
The engine manufacturer’s prescribed maintenance is designed to keep the engine in good health during its life, despite all its hardship. Read more