Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: Airbus flies past Boeing in order race
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 7, 2015, © Leeham Co.: Airbus flew past Boeing in the annual orders race when the August numbers were reported last week by both companies.
With the order for 250 A320s finally firmed up by India’s Indigo Airlines (it was announced last year), and an order for 45 A330ceos announced by China, the outcome was clear.
Through August, Airbus now has a 66% market share of single-aisle orders. Boeing has a 60% share of wide-body orders, thanks to a boost from FedEx for 50 767-300ERFs. (Boeing reported 48 767 orders net of cancellations.)
But if you remove the FedEx orders and just look at passenger airplanes, Airbus edges out Boeing in the year-to-date wide-body market share.
Pontifications: Casting eyes toward Dubai Air Show
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 31, 2015, © Leeham Co. September begins tomorrow and we’re only nine weeks away to the 2015 Dubai Air Show.
We’re looking to this event to be the last big opportunity for major airplane orders for this year. While it’s true that Airbus, Boeing and the other 
OEMs make a big year-end push to top off the order book, the Dubai show has become increasingly on a par with the Farnborough and Paris air shows, but focused on wide-body orders and program launches.
Eyes on the Dubai Air Show will be watching for what could be would be this year’s prize catch: whether Emirates Airlines will be ready to place the oft-talked about order for 50-70 Airbus A350-900s or Boeing 787-10s. (Some have floated an even higher number.) The other big item of interest: whether Airbus will launch the A380neo.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sale/Leasebacks
By Bjorn Fehrm
21 August 2015, ©. Leeham Co: IndiGo Airlines firmed up Airbus’ largest aircraft sale by unit numbers in the week. The order is for 250 A320neos. This means the airline goes from 180 A320neos on order to 430. The airline is just finishing off its first order with Airbus for 100 A320ceos, the final eight being delivered over the next months.
How can an airline that did not exist 10 years ago order 430 A320neos?
There are a couple of things that makes this possible, one of them being the Sale/Leaseback. Before we go to Sale/Leaseback and how this enables this magnitude of business, let’s take a quick look at IndiGo. It has certain similarities to other airlines that also close large aircraft deals.
Options for Singapore Airlines to operate direct flights to the US.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
July 20, 2015 © Leeham Co. Last week week we wrote about how Singapore Airlines is in talks with Airbus and Boeing to find a suitable solution for its Ultra-Long Haul airplane needs. Now we go deeper into the subject, looking at the background to the need, the aircraft options and their economics.
We also check if the different aircraft options could open the famous Singapore-New York route again, this time with acceptable fuel economics.
Summary:
- We explore SQ’s options for US direct traffic, looking at possible aircraft and their fuel economics.
- The A340-500 flight to New York was stopped because of to high fuel costs. We show what the fuel consumption would have been with the 777-200LR.
- Should Airbus decide to launch the A350-900LR a specially equipped version could re-open the famous route. We show how and with what fuel gains over A340-500 and 777-200LR.
Bjorn’s Corner: hot summer, hot engines
By Bjorn Fehrm
17 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: It is summer in south of Europe and we have had over 30°C/86°F for weeks. It makes one realize the conditions where the engines have to work over their flat rating point in the Middle East.
Aircraft engines are a bit fidgety. They don’t like temperature although they are made to sustain that their hottest parts, the nozzle and first turbine after the combustor, gets scalded to 1700°C/3,092°F or more.
Go down to the very back end of the engine and we come to where the key engine parameter, EGT (Exhaust Gas Temperature), is measured. It determines a lot of things, among them the time the engine stays on wing. Things are typically 700°C/1,832°F cooler here and this is where a reliable temperature measurement probe can be placed. Based on its values, the total health of the engine’s core is determined. It is also a key input whether the engine shall be throttled back in a hot take-off like in the Middle East.
Boeing 777X heading towards design freeze a bit heavier than planned.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
July 12, 2015, © Leeham Co. As we reported from Boeing’s Paris Air Show briefing, Boeing’s 777X project is progressing to a design freeze later in 2015. At the briefing everything was presented as being on track with no changes of key data. There have been signs that this in not fully the case. The 777X program is suffering the same disease that hits other aircraft programs, weight gain flu.
To understand it better, we compiled the many indications that points to weight increase and ran them through our proprietary model to understand why and see what it means for the aircraft’s performance.
Summary:
- Weight increase is an evil that all aircraft programs battle with. Our analysis shows that 777X is no different.
- Engine thrust is one of the areas which will be increased to mitigate increased weight. We give the latest status of GE9X thrust development, now beyond 105,000 lb.
- A number of airframe changes have been made. We analyze their consequences and make predictions for future maximum weight increases.
Pontifications: ExIm reform
By Scott Hamilton
July 6, 2015, © Leeham Co. The US ExIm Bank authorization expired last week. As readers know, I’m a strong advocate of renewal of the authorization. Boeing, and other companies, hope reauthorization can be achieved this month.
I won’t restate the reasons I think ExIm should be reauthorized, nor my utter disdain for the right-wing Republicans and Tea Party types who don’t get that the Bank helps Boeing sell airplanes and sustain or create jobs. I’ve written about this many times, and the competitive disadvantage Boeing will have vs Airbus, whose European Credit Agencies will take full advantage of this.
But there are some points on the “other side” to revisit.
Bjorn’s Corner: Bandit mask explained and nonexistent IFE boxes.
By Bjorn Fehrm
2 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Having aircraft as your interest exposes you to thousands of photos of your favorite subject. In general I find exterior photos of airliners a bit dull; there is no variation in their configuration or physics except for the livery of the operator. Some photos are a bit extra though. Read more
ExIm Bank expires, Boeing, hundreds more hope for a Lazarus
July 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The ExIm Bank is dead.
At least for now.
Click on image to enlarge.
Boeing, and hundreds of smaller companies, hope for a Lazarus miracle. Though nobody expects a revival of the Bank in four days, as in the Bible, they think resurrection is possible this month.
“There is a strong majority in the House and the Senate to reauthorize ExIm,” Tim Neale, Boeing’s Washington (DC) spokesman, told us Monday. “The problem is getting a Bill to the floor.” The Bill has been bottled up in committees, where Republicans/Tea Party members are chairmen and opposed to renewing the Bank.
Airbus A380neo not yet a project
Drilling down into the story and checking with Airbus, as well as going back to Bregier interviews at the Paris Air Show and one we did with him at the IATA AGM in early June, it’s clear the Sunday Times was somewhat exuberant in its headline.
Read more
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Posted on July 21, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Dubai Air Show, Emirates Airlines, Leeham News and Comment, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce
A380, A380neo, Airbus, Dubai Air Show, Emirates Airline, Fabrice Bregier, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce, Rolls-Royce Advance engine